1、历年黄金价格走势（Gold price trend over the years）Gold price chart over the yearsGold investment has certain risks, and there are many factors that influence the price of gold. Among them, war, economy, employment, supply and demand, interest rate, stock market, politics and other aspects will make the price
2、 of gold fluctuate.The lowest international trading price of gold took place in 1999 July 20th, 252 dollars / ounce, equivalent to RMB 67 yuan / gram. The highest price occurred in 2006 May 12th, 725 dollars / ounce, equivalent to about 187 yuan / gram.These prices are the first transaction price of
3、 gold for international raw materials. Gold raw materials through layers of wholesale, processed into finished jewelry, and then wholesale, about 7-8 links to reach the terminal sales. After these links, to the counter, basically rose by about 50 yuan per gram (including management fees, taxes and s
4、o on). So the old jewelry shop in the recovery than many finished bottom, it is for this reason.Since the “9. 11“ event in 2001, the international gold price has been showing an upward trend, and has continued to rise sharply since 2003. The price of gold at the beginning of 2003 is $345.25, the sam
5、e year at the beginning of February, the price of gold rose to nearly $388.9 an ounce. After several twists and turns, the end of September 2003 hit a high of $394 in December, rising above $400 mark in December 9th, rising to $407.76. In 2003, the international price of gold rose by about 17.8%. Ma
6、inly due to the international price of gold is rising global economic development still faces many uncertainties, the dollar devaluation and economic instability investors hedging demand growth, causing investors to buy gold boom, push gold prices to a eight year high.The dollar faces a sharp downsi
7、de risk and gold becomes a haven. Generally speaking, a countrys strong economic performance should support the countrys currency exchange rate rise, but in 2003 the dollar exchange rate and the U.S. economy is contrary to the trend. The U.S. economy picked up in 2003. According to a report released
8、 by the US Department of Commerce, the gross domestic product of the United States increased by 1.4% in the first quarter of 2003, an increase of 3.3% in the second quarter and an increase rate of 8.2% in the third quarter, the fastest rate in 20 years. Economists expect the economy to grow by more
9、than 5% in the second half of 2003. At the same time as the economy grew strongly, the dollar fell sharply in 2003. As of December 3, 2003, the dollar against the yen fell by 9% compared with the beginning of 2003, the dollar against the euro since 2003, the cumulative decline of about 20%.The green
10、back fell in 2003 1 to May, by the beginning of 2003 1 dollar to 0.9653 Euro $0.8405 by the end of May. Since the beginning of September began to rise, rose to 0.9225 euros in October 9th fell to 0.8516 euros. In November 3rd, the dollar rose to 0.8726 euros, but fell sharply again in late November,
11、 from $1 in November 24th 0.8501 against the euro plunged to 0.8420 euros in November 28th. Since 28, after eight consecutive days to refresh the dollar against the euro in December 9th lows, closing price fell to 0.8257 euros a record low.2003, 19 months,The exchange rate between us dollar and Japa
12、nese yen basically fluctuates from 121.43 to 115.84 yen. It rose to a high of 121.43 yen in March 21st and fell to 115.84 yen in September 3rd. In mid September the dollar has dropped sharply, especially in the meeting, the dollar has accelerated the rate of decline in the first half of October fell
13、 to about 107 yen, three years lows in October 20th rose to 110 yen. In November 3rd rose to 111.05 yen. At the end of November fell again to 108 yen. Meanwhile, the dollar has fallen to its lowest level in years against other major currencies. If the US dollar falls, it will have a negative impact
14、on the global economy and may lead to turmoil in the international financial markets, which will lead to more money flowing into the gold market to avoid hedging.Geopolitical tensions continue to exacerbate market panic, gold hedging function highlighted. The growing terrorist attacks in the Middle
15、East have become a lingering worry for investors. Geopolitical tensions have made the growth of the U.S. economy fragile, affecting confidence in the U.S. economy and the steady growth of the global economy. By the Dutch act of the bomb attacks in Turkey by the two Istanbul synagogue, and killed 23
16、people, Al Qaeda claimed responsibility for the explosion, and threatened to launch a car bomb attack on the United States, Britain, Italy, Australia and japan. In late November 2003, U.S. President Bush in an interview with the British “sun“ published in the said: “to ensure the long-term security
17、of the world, the United States may start a war again, if necessary, even at the war alone.“ The increasing instability of the international political and military situation has raised the demand for hedging for investors, while the gold hedging and hedging functions have been taken seriously by inv
18、estors.Market analysts have different views on the long-term trend of gold prices. Some experts believe that the dollar is still weak, the international terrorist attacks will happen at any time, the uncertain factors in the financial market investment climate, global interest rates are generally lo
19、w, the companys repurchase to reduce the supply of gold, “the Washington Agreement“ also disguised control of the supply of gold, therefore, the price of gold is expected to 2004 exceeded $420 mark, and keep several years of strong.Some experts believe that the future trend of gold prices will mainl
20、y be affected by the economic development of the United states. The United States economy despite signs of recovery, but the unemployment rate remains high, the lack of investor confidence leads to substantial inflow of funds into the gold market. The current wave of irrational buying of gold will s
21、ubside as the US economy improves and the dollar recovers. If the United States there is a strong economic recovery, employment situation improved significantly, the consumer market is buoyant, funds will be once again back to the stock market and gold market currencies, gold prices will fall.Of par
22、ticular note is that the cost of gold is an important factor affecting the price of gold. In recent years, the cost of gold has dropped below $240 an ounce, and the current price of gold has far exceeded the cost, and prices can not be too far away from value. Once the global political and economic
23、instability disappears, gold prices will fall. Theoretically,The aggregate supply and demand of gold are the fundamental factor in determining prices. Gold production has been slow and steady for the last 10 years. Industrialized countries still have large amounts of gold, estimated at more than 240
24、00 tons, plus gold held by institutions, with a total gold reserves of around 28000 tonnes. These gold reserves will not be like the money reserves. Can operate and bring interest, but to make the holder to spend, but keep the cost. So, as soon as the time is ripe, selling gold is an inevitable choi
25、ce for central banks. In the long run, gold is generally oversupply, and its price will not remain at a high level far away from the cost.I believe that the international price of gold will continue to rise modestly in 2004 as the US dollar faces tremendous downward pressure and geopolitical tension
26、s persist. The main reasons are four:First, the future trend of the dollar remains to be seen, and some countries need to consider increasing non dollar reserves, while gold is an important hedging tool. While the US economy is recovering at the same time in 2004, its inflation rate may rise, which
27、will play a supporting role in the price of gold. In 2004, the negative impact of Iraqs tension on the U.S. economy still exists, and the dollars safe haven position will be further shaken, and people will continue to attach importance to the hedging role of gold.Second, from the supply and demand s
28、ide, because the price of gold fell nearly two years ago production costs, has now accumulated a strong rebound momentum. When the market fell in the last two years, gold mines usually had to “hedge“, that is, to sell their gold in the next few years or even decades, so as to avoid further losses in
29、 the future. But as the price of gold rose, gold miners reduced hedges, leading to a fall in the gold market. In November 21, 2003, Munch, chairman and founder of Baarck gold, Canadas largest gold producer, announced that the company would no longer sell gold to the forward market in order to avoid
30、future price shocks. The news surprised the market. Spot gold jumped nearly $4.50 immediately after the announcement by the gold company, rising to $397.80 an ounce.In terms of demand, the demand for gold in India and China has maintained a high level in recent years. Chinas annual output of gold is
31、 about more than 180 tons, but only the annual consumption of gold jewelry reached more than 200 tons, there is a big gap. Due to the opening of the gold market, Chinas demand for gold, whether it is investment or consumption, will have a substantial increase. This increase in the short term is diff
32、icult to rely on the mainland to improve the production of gold, must rely on imports. Chinas gold demand will continue to grow in 2004. In addition, not only the demand for gold for civil growth, but also the central bank will increase gold reserves, the central bank to adjust the supply and demand
33、 of gold chips. The increasing demand for gold in Asian countries will support the rise in gold prices.Third, although the global interest rate tends to rise, it will remain basically stable in 2004. Lower interest rates are helping to keep the price of gold going up. Although the US economy recover
34、ed strongly in the second half of 2003, the economic restructuring of the United States has not yet been completed, with a serious excess capacity and a high unemployment rate.There is concern that the economic recovery in the United States is a recovery from jobless growth, and that such a recovery
35、 is unsustainable. Moreover, the huge US budget deficit makes it difficult for the US government to further stimulate the economic stimulus of tax cuts. As a result, economists expect the US economy to pick up in 2004, but slow down in 2005. With the outlook for economic growth still uncertain, it i
36、s unlikely that the Fed will raise interest rates in the first half of 2004. At the same time, Europes economy is less developed than the United States, and the ECB is less likely to raise interest rates. Lower interest rates are helping to keep the price of gold strong.Fourth, geopolitical tensions
37、 will push up the price of gold. The aftermath of the attacks against Iraq is still a lot. The situation in the Middle East and the Korean Peninsula is unstable. Even the United States may be attacked by terrorism again, while the storage of gold has a certain value to maintain its value. Panizo Sit
38、i, of UBS, said the fund continued to buy gold with a hedging function, despite signs of recovery in the US economy. At present, the United States faces more attacks in Iraq, and investing in gold is seen as a way of avoiding danger, and the price of gold seems to soon break through the key resistance point of $410 an ounce.
