2011-2020年中国新经济十年回顾研究报告.pdf

36KR RESEARCH2011-2020 36 2020.12每 日 免 费 获 取 报 告1、每日微信群内分享7 +最新重磅报告；2、每日分享当日华尔街日报、金融时报；3、每周分享经济学人4、行研报告均为公开版，权利归原作者所有，起点财经仅分发做内部学习。扫一扫二维码关注公号回复：研究报告加入“起点财经”微信群。 2 2019 GDP 16.3% 2011 2020 5G 2017 2018 36 2011 2020 1 CONTENTS 01 2011-2020 2011-2020 2011-2020 2011-2020 2011-2020 02 03 04 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 5G O2O 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 013 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 51.1 2011 4 2011 2011 2015 GDP 8% 2020 15% 2011 6 27 2010 2011 5,000 * 2011 3 * 3661.2 2012 5 2012 Office365 Windows Azure 2011 OpenStack 2012 IaaS PaaS 2012 3 2011 552 2012 3G CNNIC 2012 4.2 3.8 90% 71.3 2013 6 4G 4G 2013 12 4 4G TD-LTE 2013 10 18 23 TD-LTE TD-LTE 500 3 4G TD-LTE 2013 12 4 4G Google Glass 2013 4 Google Glass O2O O2O 2013 BAT O2O 81.4 2014 7 2014 2.6 2014 7 H Capital 2,000 IDG 1,500 10 51Talk 5,500 2014 12 29 2014 2014 2,000 2014 8,956.85 234.3% APEC 2014 APEC 11 APEC 2001 13 APEC 2014 91.5 20158 2015 6 11 2015 32 2015 1.16 8 70 80 90 00 2015 2 14 100% Uber 2015 10 8 + 2015 7 2015 40 2015 6.83 2.4 40 10.1 2014 200 101.6 20169 2016 3 DeepMind AlphaGo 4 1 AlphaGo 2016 5 42 1,000 100 50 1,800 2016 9 2016 2016 Q1 3.4 Q4 20.4 500% 2016 1 15 B C 39 2016 12 3.44 47.1% 2016 6 1,932 2016 111.7 2017 10 2017 49,205 47.2%* 2017 2017 21 2017 2017 2017 + * 36121.8 2018 11 2018 4 2018 106 2018 101 2018 400 114% 2018 2018 18 2018 127.15 125.62 60.1% 61.7% IT 2018 1,308.9 73.09%131.9 2019 125G5G 2019 6 6 5G 2019 10 31 5G 11 1 5G 2020-2025 5G 1.1 5G 1.8 2 4.3 2019 10 24 2019 2019 4,338 226.2% MobTech 2019 11 141.10 2020 13 2020 5G 2020 MobTech 350% 650% 2020 4 20 2020 5 22 5G A 37 2020 7 16 2020 7 27 2020 8 37 2011-2020 2011-2020 2011-2020 2011-2020 2011-2020 021416 36 GDP GDP 9.5% 2019 GDP 16.3% GDP 2.1 15 2015-2019 GDP 36 GDP 58.763.270.277.482.910.211.413.014.516.215.3%15.6%15.8%16.3%201814.8%201574.62017 2016 201968.983.291.999.1 GDP 2015-2019 CAGR 12.3% 三新 9.0%GDP 9.5% / 17 2011 2020 VC PE 2020 12 2011 4.35 19.6% 2020 4,218.40 29.5% 2018 2020 11 2020 54 2020 12 2011-2020H1 / 36 2.2 2011-2020 1626,745.1129,825.4541,977.67 47,095.6454,945.1168,657.1686,545.8899,863.29112,307.33116,355.732013 2011 2012 2015 2014 2016 2018 2017 2019 2020H1CAGR +19.6%4,231.492,177.912,514.505,118.987,849.4813,712.0517,888.7213,317.4112,444.047,041.922017 2016 2011 2013 2012 2014 2015 2018 2019 2020Q1-Q3 2011-2020Q3 / 36 18 2020 21.5% 32.7% 2014 2017 2018 2017 2.3 2011-2020 17 2011-2020Q3 / 36 2,2001,751 1,8083,6268,3659,12410,144 10,0218,2345,4672011 2018 2012 2014 2016 2013 2017 2015 2019 2020Q1-Q3-18.8%+179.8%2,561.911,704.851,886.784,376.745,254.967,449.1012,111.4910,788.067,630.946,022.082011 2012 2020Q1-Q32019 2018 2016 2017 2015 2013 2014-37.0%+176.7% 2011-2020Q3 / 36 19 36 2019 1 2020 10 A 39.8% A+ C 20% C Pre-IPO 13% IPO 8.9% IPO IPO 2.4 2011-2020 1839.80%20.00%8.89%8.60% A 4.41%A+ C 18.30%IPO C+ Pre-IPO 2019 1 2020 10 3620 36 2019 1 2020 10 Top5 IT IT 2018 5G IT 2.5 2011-2020 194,807.271,596.181,071.52761.24531.61IT 2019 1 2020 10 Top5 / 3621 36 Top5 GDP 2.6 2011-2020 20 2019 1 2020 10 Top5 / / 36 NO.1 2,324.28 3,040NO.4 1,050.17 1,380 2,140.83 2,164NO.3 882.02 1,301NO.5 2,214.79 2,194NO.2 5G O2O 0321 233.1.1 1997 36 2015-2017 + 19972013-2014 2018-2019 2020 1997 CGOS CCEC2020 9 2013 O2O 2014 2018 2019 1 2015 7 2015 40 2017 Made In Internet+ 22243.1.2 23 2014 2019 34.81 6.7% 2020 2019 4,338 2020 9,610 2020 6 3.09 6.098.1110.4016.3921.7926.1029.1631.6334.8133.8%33.2% 28.2%57.6%32.9%19.8%11.7%8.5%6.7%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%0.0010.0020.0030.0040.002011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 %) 2011 2019 2019 36 34,259 42,503 43,322 56,230 54.6%53.0%50.7%59.8%46.0%48.0%50.0%52.0%54.0%56.0%58.0%60.0%62.0% - 20,000 40,000 60,0002017.6 2018.6 2019.6 2020.6 2020 3.09 1,000 + 500 + 2017 6 2020 6 CNNIC 36253.1.3 24 B2B2C 2C 2B B2B2C Business to Business to B B C B2B2C 36263.1.4 25 logo 1 B2C 2 B2B 3 B2C 4 B2B 5 B2C 6 B2C 7 B2B 8 B2C 9 B2B 10 B2C / 36 36273.1.4 26 logo 1 B2B2C 2 S2B2C APP3 B2C 4 O2O 5 6 O2O + 36 36 36283.2.1 Artificial Intelligence 2014 2017 2019 2016 AlphaGo 2016 3 DeepMind AlphaGo 4 1 2017 12 2017 35 2014 272020 2020 7 , WAIC 5G 5G+AI 36291933.345.656.175.175%37%23%34%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%010203040506070802016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 3.2.2 2016 3 2017 12 2017 35 2020 2025 2030 2019 44 34.04% 2016 20% 2019 40 20 15 28 2016-2020 36303.2.3 29 36313.2.4 30 logo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 / 36 36323.2.4 31 logo 1 2 3 4 5 6 AI 7 8 9 10 36 36 36333.3.1 5G 5G 5G 5 2014 5G 20132018 5G 2019 5G 2016 5G 5G 2020 20Gbps 5G 5G 5G 5G 5G 5G 2018 6 13 3GPP 5GNR SA 5G 2019 5G 50 5G 2014 5 5G 2020 5G 322020 5G 2020 3 5G YD9601 5G 5G 363456.60%16.20%14.50%9.20%0.90%2.50% OPPOvivo realme 3.3.2 5G 5G 5G 5G 2019 6 5G 50 5G 5G 20 5G 5G 5G LSI 5G 5G 990 vivo Exynos980 SoC 1000 5G 5G IDC 2019 5G 1.16 2020 5G 4,970 5G 56.6% OPPO vivo 16.2% 14.5% 33 2020 Q3 5G IDC 36353.3.3 5G 5G 34 5G 36363.3.4 5G 355G logo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 / 5G 36 36 5G 5G373.4.1 O2O O2O O2O O2O Online to Offline O2O O2O O2O 2012-2014 O2O 1.0 2010-2011 O2O 2017-2019 2020 2015-2016 O2O 2.0 2010 O2O 2011 5,000 O2O O2O 2015 7 2015 40 O2O O2O O2O O2O O2O O2O O2O O2O 1.0 2011 36 O2O 36383.4.2 O2O O2O + O2O O2O O2O DNA O2O O2O O2O O2O APP O2O 2015 O2O 2020 O2O O2O O2O O2O O2O O2O 5G O2O O2O 37393.4.3 O2O 38 O2O O2O O2O O2O 36 403.4.4 O2O 39O2O logo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 58 / O2O 36 36413.4.4 O2O 40O2O logo 1 2 3 KK 4 O2O 5 6 7 8 O2O 9 10 8 36 O2O 36 36423.5.1 2004 2012 2018 + 2007-2011 2004-2006 2016-2017 2018-2019 2012-2015 2004 11 2005 56 PPTV PPS 2006 6 2011 3 GIF 2013 7 2013 9 2014 5 2016 2017 2018-2019 bilibili + 2007 12 2009-2011 CNTV bilibili IPO 412020 Aurora Mobile TV 1,079% 708% 319% 364371,107 72,486 75,877 85,044 88,821 59,403 64,798 64,764 77,325 81,786 88.7%87.5%88.8%94.1%94.5%74.1%78.2%75.8%85.6%87.0%2018.6 2018.12 2019.6 2020.3 2020.6 3.5.2 42 2020 6 8.88 94.5% 2018 6 5.8 8.18 87.0% 2018 6 12.9 2020 86 26.5% * + APP 2018.6-2020.6 CNNIC 36* 36443.5.3 43 36 453.5.4 44 logo 1 2 3 4 5 6 TV 7 8 9 10 / 36 36463.5.4 45 logo 1 2 3 4 5 36 36 36473.6.1 - - 2004-2015 2004 20172018 2016 IT 2016 2016 8 2017 IPO 2004 P2P 2013 2014 462019 2019 8 FinTech 2019-2021 5G 36483.6.2 47 2019 8 FinTech 2019-2021 2020 6 RegTech 2020 6 2020 11 IT 2020 1 6 2020 6 5G 5G DevOps IT 49 3.6.3 48 36 503.6.4 49 logo 1 2 IT 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 / 36 36513.6.4 50 logo 1 AI 2 3 4 5 6 7 360 AI 36 36 36523.7.1 2008 20002018 2020 2016-2017 2000 K68 2016 9 ofo 1,000 2016 20171,710 2,160 2018 2018 6 2018 58 2018 9 2018 119 2020 2 2008 51 36533.7.2 + 52 2019 32,828 11.6% 2019 714 52.1% Uber WeWork 2017 7 17,300 9,205 3,063 2,700 227 225 108 8.8%11.8%30.2%9.0%10.2%36.4%22.7%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0% - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 2019 % 2019 36543.7.3 53 + 5G / / 36553.7.4 54 logo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 / 36 36563.7.4 55 logo 1 CBD 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 36 36 36573.8.1 2013-2015 2008-2009 2019 2020 2016 2008 2009 1 2019 10 2020 10 1,000 2013 2015 7 2.0 56 36583.8.2 2020 6 2020 2022 2020 19 2020 9 2021-2025 BaaS 2018 8 BaaS 57593.8.3 BaaS 58 BaaS 36 603.8.4 59 logo 1 , 2 3 BaaS 4 5 / 36 36613.8.4 60 logo 1 Asch 2 3 4 5 36 36 36623.9.1 B 2008-2010 20 90 IT 2016-2019 2020 2011-2015 SaaS 20 90 B ERP 2011 SaaS2012 SaaS OA 2015 8 2015 50 2016 2016 73 2017 7 ( 2017 35 ) AI 2018 (2018-2020 ) 2018 135 2008 2008 9 2009 11 PaaS SAE 2010 2 61 36633.9.2 + 62 B 2020 QuestMobile 2020 130 B + B 643.9.3 B 63 B B AI/ / /5G 36 653.9.4 64 logo 1 2 3 4 IT IT 5 SaaS 6 7 8 9 10 / 36 36663.9.4 65 logo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 36 36 36673.10.1 2011-2015 2008-2010 2019-2020 2016-2018 2008 11 2009 1 2010 6 2016 2016 958 2018 5 2020 11 2 2021 2035 2020 39 2012 4 2012- 2020 2012 22 2013 9 2013-2015 333% 2015 33.1 66 36683.10.2 2020 4 23 2020 86 2020 2 11 2 2021 2035 2020 39 2019 1 -10 4.59% 2021 2035 2020 39 2025 20% Model3 ES6 2020 Model3 45,754 EV ES6 11,711 2,735.6% 67693.10.3 BMS HUD 68 BMS HUD 36 703.10.4 69 logo 1 2 SUV 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 / 36 36713.10.4 70 logo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 36 36 36 - - 047173 2018 2018 5G 36 1. 2019 GDP 16.3%* B2B 724.1 * 3674 2. OMO 3. 36 734.1 75 36 PE 36 PE 1 VC 2 3 Buyout Buyout PE KKR 744.2 76 36 1. 2. 90 00 KOL 3. 754.3 77 36 1. 2. MRO 764.3 787736 5G VC/PE / / 36 1.5 50,000 01 36 9 80 02 03 36 5G 04 36 / 05 3679 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 78 https:/