1、Asia-Pacific Afternoon Summary February 22, 2010 For further product information, contact: Asia-Pacific Investment Research +852-2978-1000 Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S. Global Investment Research The Goldman Sachs Grou
2、p, Inc. does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their i
3、nvestment decision. For Reg AC certification, see the end of the text. Other important disclosures follow the Reg AC certification, or go to This report is intended for distribution to GS institutional clients only. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. This document contains comments related to the follow
4、ing stocks: Agile Property Holdings (3383.HK) Allgreen Properties (AGRN.SI) Ascendas Real Estate Investment Trust (AEMN.SI) CapitaCommercial Trust (CACT.SI) CapitaLand (CATL.SI) CapitaMall Trust (CMLT.SI) CDL Hospitality Trusts (CDLT.SI) China Everbright (0165.HK) China Merchants Property (A) (00002
5、4.SZ) China Overseas Land (0688.HK) China Resources Land (1109.HK) China Vanke (A) (000002.SZ) China Vanke (B) (200002.SZ) China World Trade Center (600007.SS) City Developments (CTDM.SI) COSCO Pacific (1199.HK) Country Garden Holdings Company (2007.HK) E-House (China) Holdings Limited (EJ) Fantasia
6、 Holding Group Co. (1777.HK) Financial Street Holding Co (000402.SZ) Franshion Properties (China) (0817.HK) Gemdale Corp (600383.SS) Genting Singapore Plc (GENS.SI) Greentown China Holdings (3900.HK) GS Engineering initiate with a Buy rating 2Hyundai Department Store (069960.KS) Buy: Strong improvem
7、ent in cash returns not being priced-in; U/G to Buy 3Woongjin Coway (021240.KS) Buy: Concerns over new business excessive in our view; Keep Conv. Buy 4Shanda Games Limited (GAME): Off CL on lack of near-term catalysts; maintain Buy 5Key Data Changes Investment List Additions Company Ticker Investmen
8、t List Additions Fantasia Holding Group Co. 1777.HK Asia Pacific Conviction Buy List Greentown China Holdings 3900.HK Asia Pacific Sell List Hanjin Shipping 117930.KS Asia Pacific Buy List Hyundai Department Store 069960.KS Asia Pacific Buy List Shenzhen Investment 0604.HK Asia Pacific Conviction Se
9、ll List Asia Pacific Sell List Yanlord Land YNLG.SI Asia Pacific Buy List Investment List Removals Company TickerInvestment List Removals Franshion Properties (China) 0817.HK Asia Pacific Sell List Shanda Games Limited GAME Asia Pacific Conviction Buy List Shimao Property 0813.HK Asia Pacific Convic
10、tion Buy List Initiations Company Ticker Rating/ Coverage view Price Target Current Year Next Year Fiscal y/e Hanjin Shipping 117930.KS B/N W37,000 (W16,385) W670 Dec Rating and price target changes Company Ticker Rating/ Coverage view Price Target Estimates Lenovo Group (0992.HK) Mapletree Logistic
11、s Trust (MAPL.SI) Mediatek (2454.TW) Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. (OCBC.SI) Poly Real Estate Group (600048.SS) Powerlong Real Estate Holdings (1238.HK) Sands China (1928.HK) Shanda Games Limited (GAME) Shanghai Forte Land (2337.HK) Shenzhen Investment (0604.HK) Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Holdin
12、g (000069.SZ) Shimao Property (0813.HK) Shui On Land (0272.HK) Sino-Ocean Land Holdings (3377.HK) SOHO China (0410.HK) Suntec REIT (SUNT.SI) TSMC (2330.TW) UOL Group (UTOS.SI) Wing Tai Holdings (WTHS.SI) Woongjin Coway (021240.KS) Yanlord Land (YNLG.SI) ZTE Corporation (A) (000063.SZ) ZTE Corporatio
13、n (H) (0763.HK) New Old New Old % chg Current Year Next Year Fiscal y/e Agile Property Holdings 3383.HK B/A unch HK$12.88 HK$14.72 (12.5%) Rmb0.54 Rmb0.75 Dec China Merchants Property (A) 000024.SZ N/A unch Rmb26.16 Rmb36.00 (27.3%) Rmb1.02 Rmb1.39 Dec China Overseas Land 0688.HK N/A unch HK$17.37 H
14、K$19.35 (10.2%) HK$0.83 HK$1.13 Dec China Resources Land 1109.HK S/A unch HK$15.84 HK$17.82 (11.1%) HK$0.85 HK$0.69 Dec China Vanke (A) 000002.SZ B/A unch Rmb12.47 Rmb14.30 (12.8%) Rmb0.46 Rmb0.62 Dec China Vanke (B) 200002.SZ B/A unch HK$11.27 HK$13.30 (15.2%) Rmb0.46 Rmb0.62 Dec China World Trade
15、Center 600007.SS S/A unch Rmb8.49 Rmb9.70 (12.5%) Rmb0.30 Rmb0.32 Dec Country Garden Holdings Company 2007.HK N/A unch HK$3.05 HK$3.50 (12.8%) Rmb0.14 Rmb0.17 Dec E-House (China) Holdings Limited EJ B/A unch US$22.78 US$27.10 (15.9%) US$1.05 US$1.00 Dec Fantasia Holding Group Co. 1777.HK B/A unch HK
16、$2.63 HK$3.00 (12.5%) Rmb0.22 Rmb0.29 Dec Financial Street Holding Co 000402.SZ N/A unch Rmb12.20 Rmb15.00 (18.7%) Rmb0.64 Rmb0.79 Dec Franshion Properties (China) 0817.HK N/A S/A HK$2.82 unch - HK$0.11 HK$0.14 Dec Gemdale Corp 600383.SS B/A unch Rmb17.45 Rmb20.50 (14.9%) Rmb0.53 Rmb0.76 Dec Greento
17、wn China Holdings 3900.HK S/A N/A HK$10.62 HK$14.15 (25.0%) Rmb0.98 Rmb1.05 Dec Guangzhou R CEL and CS attractive 11 Taiwan: Financial Services: Still positive on life insurers despite monthly losses in January 12 Industrials Asia Pacific: Conglomerates: Conglo Catch-up: Your 2-min guide to estimate
18、s, valuations, events 13 GS Engineering as we would expect potentially less stringent government tightening and/or strong property transaction volume support in the event that our bear-case plays out that is 30% reduction in property price from current levels and 35% fall in volume over 2009. Even t
19、hough current share prices remain considerably above our worst-case year-end 2010E NAV of a 45% price fall from current levels and a 35% fall in volume we think this scenario is very unlikely unless there is a China economy double dip. Picking stocks on risk/reward against our base and bear cases (1
20、) We like stocks that screen as having significant potential upside to our base-case valuations (our 12-month target prices) as well as limited downside to our bear-case NAV. The reverse is true for our Sell-rated stocks. (2) We expect Shenzhens residential property market to be more volatile in the
21、 near-term amid government policy tightening there given higher speculative activities in the city. (3) We think the policy outlook for commercial property is more stable, although we do not expect a strong recovery in office rentals in key cities in 2010. We upgrade Yanlord (YNLG.SI) to Buy from Ne
22、utral, Franshion (817.HK) to Neutral from Sell, downgrade SZI (604.HK) (to Conv. list) and Greentown (3900.HK) to Sell from Neutral. We retain Buy on Agile (3383.HK), Fantasia (1777.HK), R on CL), Shimao (813.HK), Powerlong (1238.HK), Sino-Ocean (3377.HK), E-house (EJ), Vanke A/B (0/200002.SZ), Gemd
23、ale (600383.SS) and Poly (600048.SS), but add Fantasia to our Conv. list in place of Shimao. We retain Sell on CRL (1109.HK) and CWTC (600007.SS). Key risk: Government over-tightening that induces macro hard landing. Asia-Pacific Afternoon Summary February 22, 2010 Goldman Sachs Global Investment Re
24、search Hanjin Shipping (117930.KS) Buy: Profitability on the horizon; initiate with a Buy rating 2117930.KS, W25,900 Market cap US$1,668 mnTarget price W37,000Fiscal y/e Dec 2009E 2010E Net inc. (W) (1,214 bn) 50 bn EPS (W) (16,385) 670 EPS growth (529.6%) 104.1% P/E - 38.6X Dividend yield - - Inves
25、tment Lists Asia Pacific Buy List Coverage view NeutralTom Kim (Hong Kong): , +852-2978-0856 Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Ronald Leung (Hong Kong): , +852-2978-1255 Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Source of opportunity We initiate coverage on Hanjin Shipping Company (Hanjin or “opco”) with a Buy rating a
26、nd 12-month target price of W37,000, implying 43% potential upside. The company appears well positioned to capitalize on a recovery in container shipping, as rates and volumes rebound sharply off of their depressed levels. Valuations look attractive to us at 1.11X 2010E EV/fleet value against our ou
27、tlook for return on fleet of 13.3% over 2010E-2011E. Looking forward, we estimate the companys capex will peak in 2010E and decline sharply in 2011E, while an appreciation in the Won will facilitate a reduction in the net debt to equity ratio, in our view. Catalyst In our view, Hanjins containership
28、 fleet growth plans are poised to coincide with an ongoing recovery in containership rates. If demand continues to improve, Hanjin could gain incremental market share profitably as newbuild deliveries come onstream. We also see two potential near-term catalysts: (1) Successful implementation of Tran
29、spacific rate restoration plans in May; and (2) Consensus earnings upgrades on stronger-than-expected top line growth. Valuation We derive our 12-month target price of W37,000 using sum-of-the-parts valuation, underpinned by a risk-adjusted target fleet value multiple of 1.23X, which is based on our
30、 forward two-year ROF of 13.3%. Key risks Containership capacity and pricing discipline are key industry risks, while company-specific risks include negative free cash flow outlook for 2010E-2011E and high financial leverage. Hyundai Department Store (069960.KS) Buy: Strong improvement in cash retur
31、ns not being priced-in; U/G to Buy 3069960.KS, W98,600 Market cap US$1,929 mnTarget price W117,000Fiscal y/e Dec 2010E 2011E Net inc. (W) 249 bn 267 bn EPS (W) 10,952 11,765 EPS growth 4.0% 7.4% P/E 9.0X 8.4XDividend yield 0.6% 0.6% Investment Lists Asia Pacific Buy List Coverage view NeutralPaul Hw
32、ang (Seoul): , +82(2)3788-1176 Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Seoul Branch Jeehye Song (Seoul): , +82(2)3788-1773 Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Seoul Branch Source of opportunity Following a 10% fall in Hyundai Department Stores (HDS) share price over the last 3 months, we believe the market has only f
33、actored in negative earnings impact from Lotte Shoppings (023530.KS, Neutral, Feb 19: W319,500) acquisition of GS Retail (which is already more than priced-in, in our view), while we think the market is not pricing in the potential strong improvement in HDS cash returns by FY12E (through earnings co
34、ntribution from newly opened stores) as indicated by HDSs wider CROCI/WACC spread in FY12E. We upgrade HDS to Buy (from Neutral) with a new target price of W117,000. Catalyst We forecast HDS to enjoy accelerating group-wide same-store-sales growth (SSSG) of +5.7%/+6.8% yoy in FY10E/11E (following +5
35、.0% yoy in FY09), driven by improvement in underlying consumption and store space expansion at Shinchon store. We note that department store companies P/E multiples have historically moved in tandem with Department store industrys SSSG trends, which suggests HDSs accelerating SSSG in FY10E/11E will
36、be positive to both earnings and P/E multiple. Moreover, we estimate HDS to continue to show a strong commitment to labor cost control, with labor cost as percentage of sales declining to 6% in FY12E vs. 7% in FY09. Valuation Following 3%/3% upward FY10E/11E EPS revisions (incorporating 4Q09 and YTD
37、 results), as well as introducing FY12E earnings estimates, we raise our 12-month P/E-based target price to W117,000 (from W114,000), derived by applying 11X (unchanged, 0.5 standard deviation above HDSs historical average to reflect accelerating SSSG outlook) to FY10E EPS. Key risks Slower-than-exp
38、ected consumption and stiffer-than-expected competition. Asia-Pacific Afternoon Summary February 22, 2010 Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Woongjin Coway (021240.KS) Buy: Concerns over new business excessive in our view; Keep Conv. Buy 4021240.KS, W33,800 Market cap US$2,168 mnTarget price W
39、44,000Fiscal y/e Dec 2010E 2011E Net inc. (W) 174 bn 195 bn EPS (W) 2,262 2,530 EPS growth 11.5% 11.8% P/E 14.9X 13.4XDividend yield 3.3% 3.7% Investment Lists Asia Pacific Buy ListAsia Pacific Conviction Buy List Coverage view NeutralChristine Cho (Seoul): , +82(2)3788-1154 Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L
40、.C., Seoul Branch Paul Hwang (Seoul): , +82(2)3788-1176 Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Seoul Branch Source of opportunity We reiterate our positive stance on Woongjin Coway with alleviated concerns over its entry into the domestic cosmetic business and expansion of its water treatment operations. We f
41、ind relief in the small-scale of its investment plans in these businesses (roughly W10bn for cosmetics and W28bn for the acquisition of “Green EnTech” in 2010), which represents 4.7% of its 2010E SG maintain Buy 5GAME, US$8.75 Market cap US$2,555 mnTarget price US$11.00Fiscal y/e Dec 2009E 2010E Net
42、 inc. (Rmb) 1,543 mn 1,838 mn EPS (Rmb) 5.55 6.30 EPS growth 59.7% 13.4% P/E 10.8X 9.5XDividend yield - - Investment Lists Asia Pacific Buy List Coverage view NeutralKathy Chen (Hong Kong): , +852-2978-1291 Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. James Mitchell, CFA (New York): , (212) 357-1849 Goldman Sachs la
43、st 3m, stock was -14% vs indexs -12%. Current view We believe the unexpected departure of GAMEs CEO announced on Jan. 23 should not significantly impact the companys operation and overall strategy, however we believe it is possible that the new CEO, Mr. Tan (also the chairman), may take a more conse
44、rvative approach in driving short-term revenue growth. We expect GAMEs 4Q2009 results (to be released on March 1) to meet guidance and our forecast, supported by Wemades recent disclosure of Mir 2 revenue in China, which should help ease investor concerns following the CEOs departure. However, we se
45、e downside risks to consensus expectations for 1Q2010 revenue growth of 7% qoq given no major new game launches and 1Q being a seasonally weaker quarter for MMORPG. Moreover, GAMEs game pipeline in 2010 looks to be more back-end loaded than we had previously thought, which also suggests slower growt
46、h than we had previously expected in the coming couple of quarters. We make minimal changes to our 2009E forecast but lower our 2010/2011E non-GAAP EPS by 6%/8% on lower revenue estimates. We lower our 12-month target price from $13 to $11 based on 12X non-GAAP Asia-Pacific Afternoon Summary Februar
47、y 22, 2010 Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 2010E EPS (down from 13X due to lower growth and lower peer multiples) against 2010E-2013E earnings CAGR of 7% and 2010E ROE of 41%. Key risks: Existing games maturity, lack of blockbuster hits and competition. Other Headlines Portfolio Strategy Ko
48、rea Weekly Kickstart: Foreigners turned net KOSPI buyer after 3 consecutive weeks of net selling 6Goohoon Kwon, CFA (Seoul): , +82(2)3788-1775 Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Seoul Branch Keun Myung Kim (Seoul): , +82(2)3788-1726 Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Seoul Branch KOSPI ended flat at 1,594, KOSD
49、AQ at 504 KOSPI consensus 10E P/E at 9.6X; consensus 10E EPS growth at 48%, 11E at 13% Foreigners W 673bn inflow, Institutions W 81bn outflow; foreigners turned net buyers after 3 weeks; Domestic equity fund continues to see inflow in February USDKRW 1,161, +0.8% this week Market performance KOSPI no change, KOSDAQ
