1、 1 DTZ China Insight Real Estate Investment in China 2009 26 February 2010 Contents Executive Summary 1 Overview 2 Land transactions 3 Building transactions 4 Summary 5 Contacts 6 Author Vanessa Ng DTZ Research +852 2507 0513 Contacts David Ji Head of North Asia Research +852 2507 0779 David Gree
2、n-Morgan Head of Asia Pacific Research +61 (0) 2 8243 9913 david.green- Hans Vrensen Global Head of Research +44 (0)20 3296 2159 Largely thanks to the governments stimulus measures following the global financial crisis the Chinese economy grew 8.7% year on year in 2009. The total number and total v
3、alue of major transactions in 2009 rose 62.9% and 100.7% respectively, as real estate investors took advantage of improved borrowing conditions. Transacted prices in land auctions have consistently reached record levels in 2009. Under the governments “moderately loose” monetary policy in 2009, devel
4、opers relied on bank loans to boost their land reserves. This year, the government is expected to further tighten its land policies to help control soaring housing prices in some of Chinas largest cities. Number of deals over USD10 million Source: DTZ Research 050100150200250300350Q 1 0 8 Q 2 0 8 Q
5、3 0 8 Q 4 0 8 Q 1 0 9 Q 2 0 9 Q 3 0 9 Q 4 0 9Bu i l d i n g LandNo. of dealsOverview 2 Economic overview The Chinese economy has recovered strongly from the global economic crisis, primarily due to the massive government stimulus package. Real GDP rose 8.7% to reach US$4.91 trillion in 2009, which
6、exceeded the target of 8% set by the Chinese government earlier in the year (Table 1). Such significant GDP growth was mostly supported by fixed asset investment. According to Chinas National Bureau of Statistics, gross capital formation and total consumption expenditure in 2009 contributed 8% and 4
7、.6% to GDP growth respectively. Meanwhile, net exports recorded a negative contribution of -3.9%, as a result of the contraction in western economies. Investment market overview The total number of major transactions in 2009 rose 62.9% and the total transaction value rose 100.7% as real estate inves
8、tors took advantage of improved borrowing conditions. All sectors recorded notable growth in transaction volume. The residential and industrial sectors registered the largest increases in transactional activity up 90.8% and 67.6% respectively (Table 2). Most transactions occurred in Northern and Wes
9、tern China, which is partly a response to the governments policy of industrial development in these regions. In the office sector, although the number of deals increased by 21.1%, the total transaction value dropped by 16.1%, indicating the average transacted price was lower in 2009 than in 2008. Wh
10、ile there was an increasing supply of commercial sites around the major cities, office prices in the core business areas maintained their value (Table 3). Transacted prices in land auctions consistently reached record levels in 2009. To control the soaring land prices, the Chinese government tighten
11、ed payment rules for land sales at the end of 2009. Domestic funds continued to increase their share in Chinas real estate investment market. However, the majority of the prime properties are still held by foreign companies. Table 1 Economic indicators Period Unit Value y-o-y change GDP 2009 RMB bil
12、lion 33,535 - Real GDP growth 2009 % 8.7 - Total sales of consumer goods 2009 RMB billion 12,534 +15.5% Total value of exports 2009 USD billion 1,202 -16% Source: National Bureau of Statistics Table 2 Total number of major transactions Overall 2008 2009 y-o-y change Residential 174 332 90.8% Offices
13、 38 46 21.1% Retail 63 83 31.7% Industrial/Logistics 37 62 67.6% Serviced Apartment 2 3 50.0% Mixed 193 298 54.4% Other 0 2 - Total 507 826 62.9% Source: DTZ Research Table 3 Total consideration of major transactions (US$m) Overall 2008 2009 y-o-y change Residential 10,131 30,589 201.9% Offices 5,57
14、6 4,677 -16.1% Retail 3,023 5,008 65.7% Industrial/Logistics 908 1,687 85.7% Serviced Apartment 417 335 -19.7% Mixed 15,595 29,167 87.0% Other 0 69 - Total 35,650 71,532 100.7% Source: DTZ Research Land transactions 3 Overall, transaction volume increased by 79.4%; transaction value more than doubl
15、ed from US$28.5bn in 2008 to US$65.5bn in 2009 (Table 4 and Figure 1). Under the governments “moderately loose” monetary policy in 2009, developers relied on bank loans to boost their land reserves. Residential land and mixed use land continue to be sought after. Residential land transactions jumped
16、 by 132% year-on-year to 325 transactions while mixed use land transactions increased by 56% to 291 transactions. Land sales have now become an important source of income for local governments. According to the Ministry of Land and Resources, US$233bn has been generated by local governments through
17、land sales, which is a 60% increase on a year ago. The increased supply of office land in tier-one cities such as Beijing and Shanghai has led to an increase in office land transactions from 17 to 23, but a 9% drop in consideration from the previous year. Across China there are concerns of land hoar
18、ding by local developers, especially prime sites. In light of this problem the government has imposed stricter terms in regards to land acquisitions. To further address this issue, at the end of 2009 eight property developers, both local and foreign, were suspended from buying new land due to delays
19、 in payments or contract signings. Almost all cities have recorded growth in the number of land transactions. The most significant growth was observed in Hangzhou where 98 transactions were recorded, more than triple that in 2008 (Figure 2). Table 4 Total number of major land transactions Land 2008
20、2009 y-o-y change Residential 140 325 132.1% Offices 17 23 35.3% Retail 55 74 34.5% Industrial/Logistics 35 62 77.1% Serviced Apartment 0 0 - Mixed 186 291 56.5% Other 0 2 - Total 433 777 79.4% Source: DTZ Research Figure 1 Distribution of fund by sector Source: DTZ Research Figure 2 Number of major
21、 land transaction by city Source: DTZ Research 0204060801001201402008 2009No. of deals3 0 . 7 %4 5 . 7 %4 . 8 %1 . 9 %8 . 4 %6 . 5 %3 . 0 %2 . 6 %5 3 . 1 %4 3 . 3 %2008 2009O t h e r sM i x e d ( i n c l . H o t e l )S e r v i c e d A p a r t m e n tI n d u s t r i a l / L o g i s t i c sR e t a i l
22、O f f i c eR e s i d e n t i a lU S D 2 8 , 5 4 3 m i l l i o n U S D 6 5 , 5 3 7 m i l l i o nBuilding transactions 4 Overall, transaction volume fell by 33.8% while transaction value dropped by 15.7% (Table 5 and Figure 3). The residential and industrial sectors suffered the largest drops in tran
23、sactional volume of building transactions. Residential building transactions plummeted from 34 in 2008 to 7 in 2009, partly due to rising luxury home prices which have risen more than 30% year-on-year in tier-one cities. Meanwhile, no building transactions were recorded in the industrial sector in 2
24、009 while there were two in 2008. Commercial properties continued to be sought after. There were 23 office properties sold in 2009, compared to 21 in 2008. Notably, state-owned enterprises have been actively acquiring office buildings in major cities. There were nine retail properties transacted in
25、2009, compared with eight in 2008. With the massive supply of office buildings in fringe prime business areas, vacancy rates increased and rental prices dropped. The increased occupancy risk and less attractive yield therefore led to a decrease in overall value. The office space in traditional CBD t
26、ier-one cities has remained attractive to foreign companies who intend to expand their business in China. The total number of serviced apartment transactions increased by 50% in 2009. However, this translates into only one additional transaction compared to 2008. In terms of location, tier-one citie
27、s accounted for 84% of the total building transactions. Shanghai recorded 27 transactions, which accounts for 60% of the total number, while Beijing and Guangzhou recorded six and five transactions, respectively. The office sector in Shanghai was the most active as there were 16 transactions through
28、out 2009 (Figure 4). Compared to local investors, foreign players were less active in 2009. The total value of foreign investment was down by 74.2% in 2009 while that of domestic investors increased by 28.9%. Table 5 Total number of major building transactions Building 2008 2009 y-o-y change Residen
29、tial 34 7 -79.4% Offices 21 23 9.5% Retail 8 9 12.5% Industrial/Logistics 2 0 -100.0% Serviced Apartment 2 3 50.0% Mixed 7 7 0.0% Other 0 0 - Total 74 49 -33.8% Source: DTZ Research Figure 3 Distribution of fund by sector Source: DTZ Research Figure 4 Number of major building transaction by city Sou
30、rce: DTZ Research 051015202530352008 2009No. of deals1 9 . 3 %1 0 . 9 %5 9 . 1 %5 7 . 1 %8 . 9 %1 2 . 6 %0 . 7 %5 . 9 %5 . 6 %6 . 1 %1 3 . 7 %2008 2009O t h e r sM i x e d ( i n c l . H o t e l )S e r v i c e d A p a r t m e n tI n d u s t r i a l / L o g i s t i c sR e t a i lO f f i c eR e s i d e
31、 n t i a lU S D 7 , 1 0 7 m i l l i o n U S D 5 , 9 9 4 m i l l i o nSummary 5 Conclusion The stimulus measures enacted by the government a year ago have proven to be very successful and ensured China was one of the first economies to recover from the global financial crisis. In December 2009, one
32、of the largest real estate developers in China, Vanke, warned that real estate bubbles in some of Chinas biggest cities could spread elsewhere in the country, with potentially damaging consequences for the market. However, it is generally believed that the government will cool the market to avoid re
33、al estate bubbles by adjusting specific real estate policies. Outlook Liquidity will be the crucial factor to the performance of the real estate investment market in 2010. There are signs that the cycle of expansionary monetary policy has come to an end, e.g. raising the banks reserve requirement at
34、 the central bank and the expectation of rising interest rates. As such, domestic banks have been reacting by tightening bank loans at the beginning of 2010. It is expected that additional policy changes affecting the real estate market will be announced in early March. Foreign investors are facing
35、challenging market conditions as policies are increasingly in favour of domestic funds. We are beginning to see international investors setting up real estate specific funds in China, which we believe will be an ongoing trend. Foreign investors continue to hold a pool of prime assets in tier-one cit
36、ies. While they are set to offload some of their assets due to the maturity of funds, they play an important role in shaping the real estate market in China in the future. Looking forward, residential land will still be popular despite the tightening land acquisition policies. In 2010, income genera
37、ting properties will out-perform other sectors. Retail premises in both tier-one and tier-two cities will continue to benefit from the economic recovery and growing purchasing power of consumers. Offices located in the prime locations of tier-one cities will also remain attractive to investors. Tabl
38、e 6 Major investment transactions in China (2009) Type Property Location Sector Total GFA (sq m) Price (US$m) Building POS Plaza Shanghai Office 68,221 257.69 Building Xidan Mei Sheng Beijing Retail 111,000 234.26 Building Beijing Capital Time Square Beijing Mixed 91,000 334.03 Land Western zone of
39、Dalian Port Dalian Mixed 1,225,655 702.86 Land Site on Dongan Rd. and Longhua Rd. Shanghai Mixed 90,194 1,061.28 Source: DTZ Research Contacts 6 Building Consultancy Peter Lee +852 2250 8849 Business Space Mark Price +852 2507 0706 Andy Yuen +852 2507 0722 Kevin Lam +852 2507 0571 Consulting Al
40、va To +852 2507 0550 Investment Francis Li +852 2992 4321 Alvin Yip +852 2507 0716 Property Management Edward Law +852 2992 4522 Research David Ji +852 2507 0779 Valuation & Advisory Services K. K. Chiu +852 2507 0602 Disclaimer This report should not be relied upon as a basis for entering in
41、to transactions without seeking specific, qualified, professional advice. Whilst facts have been rigorously checked, DTZ can take no responsibility for any damage or loss suffered as a result of any inadvertent inaccuracy within this report. Information contained herein should not, in whole or part, be published, reproduced or referred to without prior approval. Any such reproduction should be credited to DTZ. DTZ February 2010
