1、 1 Property Times Shenzhen Q2 2010 Demand for commercial premises rises 14 July 2010 Contents Executive summary 1 2 Economic overview 2 Offices 3 Retail 4 Industrial 5 Key statistics 6 Residential 7 Definitions 8 Contacts 9 Author Zhang Xiao-duan Head of South China Research +86 755 8212 5111 Cont
2、acts David Ji Head of North Asia Research +852 2507 0779 David Green-Morgan Head of Asia Pacific Research +61 (0)2 8243 9913 david.green- Tony McGough Global Head of Forecasting and Strategy Research +44 (0)20 3296 2314 Hans Vrensen Global Head of Research +44 (0)20 3296 2159 In Q2, most office t
3、enants were from the financial sector. Foreign enterprises also became active in this quarter. The overall net absorption in the grade A office market was 32,392 sq m and the average rental rose 1.29% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q), reaching RMB 128.58 (US$18.82) per sq per month. Going forward, we expe
4、ct rents to rise and peak in 2012, followed by a downward trend due to new supply coming on stream (Figure 1). Leasing demand for retail premises increased notably, thanks to the robust growth of domestic retail businesses. The catering and entertainment sectors were especially active in expansion.
5、MCfashion retailers were also seeking retail premises for expansion in Q2. Consequently, high quality shopping malls under construction were welcomed by retailers. With the recovering external market and increasing orders, foreign capital manufacture enterprises were actively expanding production, i
6、ncluding optical equipment, power equipment and instruments and meter equipment manufacturers. Along with the fact that many buyers had already stepped back in view of the high price, the new regulation policies issued on 17 April not only shut down investment and speculation activities, but also li
7、mited trade-up activities by owner occupiers, leading to a notable drop in transactions in Q2. From January to May, transaction volume in the primary residential market was only 1,208,400 sq m, down 61.4% year-on-year (y-o-y). Figure 1 DTZ office index (2005 2014F) 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240
8、 I n d e x (2 0 0 6 Q 1 =1 0 0 )O f f i ce re n t i n d e x O f f i ce p ri ce i n d e xSource: DTZ Research Economic overview 2 In Q1 2010, Shenzhens GDP increased 11.1% y-o-y to reach RMB 197.78 billion (US$28.96bn), and the growth rate went up 4.6 percentage points (Table 1). From January to May
9、, the Shenzhen economy grew steadily, based on the major economic indicators. The added value of above-scale industries in the first five months recorded a yearly rise of 12.8%, amounting to RMB 142.45 billion (US$20.86bn) (Table 1). Fixed asset investment from January to May rose to RMB 56.165 bill
10、ion (US$8.22bn), a y-o-y growth of 10.4%. Real estate investment reached RMB 16.345 billion (US$2.393bn), up 12.3% y-o-y (Table 1). The consumer price index in May rose 3.2% y-o-y (Table 1). Table 1 Economic indicators Indicator Period Unit Value y-o-y change (%) GDP Q1 RMB billion 197.78 11.1 Added
11、 value of above-scale industries Jan-May RMB billion 142.45 12.8 Total import and export value Jan-May USD billion 117.17 26.4 FDI utilised Jan-May USD 10 thousand 135,300 3.0 Fixed asset investment Jan-May RMB billion 56.165 10.3 Consumer price index May - 103.2 3.2 Source: Shenzhen Statistics Bure
12、au Offices 3 In Q2, no new grade A office premises came on stream. To date, the overall stock of grade A office space in Shenzhen remains at 1,616,891 sq m (Table 2). This quarter, the overall net absorption in the grade A office market was 32,392 sq m (Figure 3). Due to large enterprises moving ou
13、t, Luohu district has recorded a small negative absorption in the past two consecutive quarters. The availability ratio rate in this district rose to 9.8% (Table 2). In Q2, most tenants were from the financial sector. Foreign enterprises became active this quarter. Goldman Sachs rented 450 sq m in K
14、erry Plaza. US Poly rented 1,600 sq m, also, in Kerry Plaza. In addition, a Taiwanese bank moved to Kerry Plaza, while a well known Hong Kong shipping company expanded their office in Jingguang Center. With its large supply of high quality office premises, Futian CBD remained the market focus. In Q2
15、, the average rental rose 1.29% q-o-q to reach RMB 128.58 (US$18.82) per sq per month (Figure 2). Futian district witnessed the biggest growth of 1.9% to reach RMB 136.3 (US$19.95) per sq m per month. City-wide, we expect the rental to rise to RMB 135 (US$19.77) per sq m per month by the end of 2010
16、. Going forward, rental growth will be ongoing before the market sees an influx of new supply in and around 2012 (Figure 2). In the sales market, there was no new supply this quarter. Chuangjiang Building, Hanjing International and Honglong Century were the major on-sale projects. In the secondary m
17、arket, individual investors were more active than in the previous quarter. A one-storey unit in Di Wang Commercial Center transacted for RMB 28,000 (US$4,100) per sq m. Compared with the end of 2009, the price rose more than 10% (Figure 2). However, the secondary market was not active, due to the la
18、ck of supply. Landlords were reluctant to sell their premises. In the second half of 2010, three new grade A projects will come on stream, including Huanggang Commercial Centre, Excellence Century Center Tower No.1 and East Sea International Center. The new high quality supply will stimulate transac
19、tion volume in the leasing market in the near future. Recent transactions Goldman Sachs leased 450 sq m in Kerry Plaza. US Poly leased 1,600 sq m in Kerry Plaza. Table 2 Grade A office market statistics District Total stock (sq m) Availability ratio (%) Rent (RMB/ sq m/ month) Rent change q-o-q (%)
20、Luohu 366,813 9.8 124.4 -0.08 Futian 1,006,420 10.4 136.3 1.9 Nanshan 243,658 6.5 102.8 1.5 Overall 1,616,891 9.7 128.58 1.29 Source: DTZ Research Figure 2 DTZ office index (2005 2014F) 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 I n d e x (2 0 0 6 Q 1 =1 0 0 )O f f i ce re n t i n d e x O f f i ce p ri ce i
21、 n d e xSource: DTZ Research Figure 3 Supply, net absorption and availability ratio (2000 2011F) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010F 2 0 1 1 FN e w su p p l y N e t a b so rp t i o n Ava i l a b i l i t y ra t i o (R H S)G F A ,
22、th o u s a n d s q m A v a i l a b i l i ty r a ti o (% )Source: DTZ Research Retail 4 In the first five months of 2010, total retail sales of consumer goods in Shenzhen increased 16.2% y-o-y to reach RMB 116.44 billion (US$17.05bn) (Figure 4). As retail sales continue to steadily grow in Q2, leasi
23、ng demand for retail premises increased notably. The catering and entertainment sectors were especially active regarding expansion. Genki Sushi opened its first branch in mainland China in VI CITY, and Golden Jaguar Buffet Restaurant, Maxims Palace Restaurant and LAN Club will enter KK Mall. China F
24、ilm Cinema will open an IMAX cinema with an area of 10,000 sq m in OCT Bay. Also, demand from the clothing and fashion sector increased. MCfashion retailers like H (ii) developments pre-let/sold to an occupier; (iii) owner occupier purchase of a freehold or long leasehold. (NB. This includes subleas
25、es but excludes lease renewals.) Vacancy Floorspace that is empty, i.e. not occupied. It may be being marketed, or it may not (whether because a lessee is not occupying, it is being refurbished, or it is deliberately being left empty by the landlord). Contacts 9 Consulting Jiang Bing-he +86 755 821
26、2 5203 Industrial Grace Gu +86 755 8246 1740 Investment Stephen Qiu +86 755 8246 1654 Office space Andy Law +86 755 8212 5183 Property management Chan Tan Tat +86 755 2583 3569 Residential Jacob Wu +86 755 8246 1204 Retail Alan Wong +86 755 8212 5195 Valuation & advisory services Fei Jin-biao
27、 +86 755 8212 5210 Disclaimer This report should not be relied upon as a basis for entering into transactions without seeking specific, qualified, professional advice. Whilst facts have been rigorously checked, DTZ can take no responsibility for any damage or loss suffered as a result of any inadvertent inaccuracy within this report. Information contained herein should not, in whole or part, be published, reproduced or referred to without prior approval. Any such reproduction should be credited to DTZ. DTZ July 2010
