1、McK insey on FinanceTrading the corporate portfolio 1A systematic approach to buying and selling assets can deliver superior shareholder returns.Do carve-outs make sense? 6Yes, but not for the reasons you might think.Prophets and prots 11Executives should be wary of bending strategy to suit the wayw
2、ard long-term earnings forecasts of equity analysts.Shopping in the Internet bargain basement 15Beleaguered dot-coms can represent real bargains for savvy acquirers and real lemons for buyers who dont scope out the territory.Viewpoint: Whither globalization? 18 The war on terrorism may change the sh
3、ape and pace of economic integration. But the fundamental human forces that drive it will not be dislodged.Perspectives on Corporate Finance and StrategyNumber 2, Autumn 2001 McKinsey Steve Cole/PhotoDisc; Barton Stabler/Stock IllustrationSource; PhotoLink/PhotoDisc; Kevin Mayes/Stock Illustration S
4、ourceThis publication is not intended to be used as the basis for trading in the shares of any company orundertaking any other complex or significant financial transaction without consulting with appropriateprofessional advisers. No part of this publication may be copied or redistributed in any form
5、 without the prior written consent ofMcKinsey Bill Fallon(Bill_FallonMcK) is a principal in the NewYork office. Copyright 2001 McKinsey between 1985 and2000, earnings for the S capital markets have typicallyalready incorporated future forecast revisionsinto the current share price.In fact, if manage
6、rs pursue unrealistic EPSgrowth to meet longer-term analystprojections, there is a real risk they willactually destroy value if they engage in high-risk, high-growth projects or shift their14.00%ForecastEPS growthActualEPS growth12.00%10.00%8.00%6.00%4.00%2.00%0.00%1990199519911996199219972.00%4.00%
7、199319981994199919952000199620011997200219982003199920042000200519891994Source: Zacks Investment Research, Inc.Exhibit 3. Five-year EPS forecasts for specialtychemicals companiesMedian EPS growth over 5-year periodsShopping in the Internet bargain basement | 15Buy cheap, the saying goes, and you get
8、cheap. In what is shaping up as a dismalyear for the Internet sector, at least 450Internet companies closed their doors duringthe first nine months of 2001, nearly twice asmany failures as in all of 2000.1As valuationsplunged, failing dot-coms have becomeacquisition targets for better-positionedcomp
9、anies eager to take advantage of bargain-bin prices. Investors, many of themtraditional, off-line companies, have pouredbillions into acquiring almost 1,000 differentInternet assets and properties so far this year.In comparison to the same nine-month periodlast year, the average dollar value of each
10、transaction has dropped, but the total numberof transactions has actually increased by about40 percentand the figures are projected togrow by years end.2But acquirers rummaging through theInternets bargain basement should tempertheir enthusiasm with caution. The spectrumof options to choose from is
11、much broaderthan typical M thetrademarks, logos, URLs, and other intellect-ual property were purchased for $3 million,and several months later the distribution andfulfillment operations were purchased for afraction of the original investment.The acquirer was able to leverage thesebargain assets almo
12、st immediately intoincremental sales and profit. And by focusingon complementary assets rather than on tryingto acquire and fix the failed company as awhole, the retailer was able to improve itschances for success and increase its return oninvestment. In fact, the company felt the brandname of the d
13、efunct e-tailer to be so valuablethat it relaunched the brand less than a yearlater. The relaunched site already represents40 percent of the retailers total on-line sales,and the retailer expects to break even on theinvestment in less than a year.Another successful strategy has been toacquire all th
14、e specific assets necessary tocreate a complete, market-leading offer. Forexample, H, a leader in the on-line real estate market, carried out a systema-tic acquisition program or “roll up,” targetingweaker players to build economies of scaleand expanding the companys service offeringand revenue sour
15、ces. Homestore identified realestate listings as a critical, scarce resource inits industrys value chain. Its control oflistings, bolstered by key acquisitions oflanguishing dot-coms, provided improvedcontrol over an expanded range of listings toclose future deals on attractive terms.The results hav
16、e been impressive.H has grown into one of theWebs top 25 most-visited destinations, leadingits industry segment in visitors for more thantwo years.3This market leadership hastranslated into significant sales growthexpected to grow over 100 percent in 2001and positive operating cash flows.4Unfortunat
17、ely, Homestore has not beenimmune to the events of recent months, andits market valuation has declined significantly.Distressed assets are usually cheap for goodreason. Finding companies that retain value inthe midst of the Internet stock collapse is noteasy, but it is possible. The key to finding t
18、hebest values is a rigorous application of M “Q3 report: M “Q3 report: M itis now even more so.The terrorist attacks will have more concreteeffects as well, the most significant being anincrease in uncertainty and risk. Insurancepremiums have never reflected the possibility,20 | McKinsey on Finance
19、Autumn 2001for example, that airlines and skyscrapersmight be destroyed by terrorists. Now theydo. One of the problems in getting theeconomy running smoothly again is thatinsurance premiums have soared, particularlyfor airlines. And the insurance against terroristattacks will not go away for a while
20、, if ever,so it will be a bit more costly to fly and runairports. Even with government help indisaster insurance coverage, it will be lessattractive to invest in tall towers or visibleattractions easily identifiable as American.The probability of default on high-yield debthas also sharply increased
21、in many industries.The beleaguered telecom industry aside, thetrend is notable in aerospace, services, andnondurable consumer goods. Blue-chipcorporations also now face higher premiumson borrowing costs, paying 2.5 percentagepoints above Treasury rates, compared to 2.15percentage points prior to the
22、 attacks and1.25 percentage points in 1999. While most ofthe rise in the risk premium was in the marketprior to September 11, the attacks have madethings a bit worse. This rise in the riskpremium affects all borrowing but at themargin is likely to have its largest impact onfunding for global investm
23、ents.Then there is the certainty of a higher“security tax.” It was known for some timethat security at US airports was dreadful, butno one really believed it would matter, at leastnot on the scale of September 11, and no onewanted to pay the bill for a better system.Now we know better. Yet the issue
24、 of securityextends well beyond the airline sector. Privatecompanies will have to strengthen security.Executives may wait longer for visas, and theirtravel may be otherwise impeded. Manu-facturers will have to hold larger inventoriesas trucks endure longer waits to enter theUnited States from Canada
25、 and Mexico.Yet these new barriers can be overcome. Mostof the increase in borrowing costs was theresult of the economic downturn, not directlyrelated to the attacks. A strong economicrecovery should bring borrowing costs back tonormal or close to it. On the security side,innovation and the benefits
26、 of widespread usewill bring costs down as well. As with airbags, introduced with a high cost per bag,many people will complain about paying a“safety tax.” Today mass production hassharply lowered the cost, and people buy carswith multiple air bags. Best practiceapproaches to security will emerge an
27、daddress many of todays issues, with only aslight cost to productivity.Most important, the future of globalizationwill depend more heavily than before upon the willingness of populations and policymakers around the world to embrace it. Theimpulse to turn inward will have greaterappeal, threatening t
28、o restrict the flow ofcapital and people and slowing not only thepace of globalization but also the pace ofeconomic growth. But the countervailing force of consumers and companies lined upbehind the inherent freedom of choice it offerswill prove too powerful to resist, ensuring thatthe vital opening
29、 of the global economycontinues.Martin Baily, a McKinsey alumnus, is senior fellow atthe Institute for International Economics and formerchairman of the White House Council of EconomicAdvisers. Copyright 2001 McKinsey & Company. Allrights reserved.MoFABU DHABIAMSTERDAMANTWERPATHENSATLANTAAUCKLANDAUS
30、TINBANGKOKBARCELONABEIJINGBERLINBOGOTABOSTONBRUSSELSBUDAPESTBUENOS AIRESCARACASCHARLOTTECHICAGOCLEVELANDCOLOGNECOPENHAGENDALLASDELHIDETROITDUBAIDUBLINDSSELDORFFRANKFURTGENEVAGOTHENBURGHAMBURGHELSINKIHONG KONGHOUSTONISTANBULJAKARTAJOHANNESBURGKUALA LUMPURLISBONLONDONLOS ANGELESMADRIDMANILAMELBOURNEME
31、XICO CITYMIAMIMILANMINNEAPOLISMONTERREYMONTRALMOSCOWMUMBAIMUNICHNEW JERSEYNEW YORKORANGE COUNTYOSAKAOSLOPARISPITTSBURGHPRAGUERIO DE JANEIROROMESAN FRANCISCOSANTIAGOSO PAULOSEATTLESEOULSHANGHAISILICON VALLEYSINGAPORESTAMFORDSTOCKHOLMSTUTTGARTSYDNEYTAIPEITEL AVIVTOKYOTORONTOVERONAVIENNAWARSAWWASHINGTON, DCZURICHCopyright 2001 McKinsey & Company
