1、 BNP Paribas Securities Asia research is available on Thomson One, Bloomberg, TheM, Factset and on http:/. Please contact your salesperson for authorisation. Please see the important notice on the back page. KOREA/BANKS 16 MARCH 2010 P/E P/B Yld Company BBG code Rating Share price TPChgin TP Mkt cap
2、 FY1 FY2 FY1 FY2 FY1 (KRW) (KRW) (%) (USDm) (x) (x) (x) (x) (%) KB Financial 105560 KS BUY 51,100 64,000 N/A 15,537 8.5 7.2 0.8 0.8 2.9 Shinhan Financial 055550 KS BUY 43,700 56,000 N/A 20,785 11.6 10.1 1.1 1.0 1.6 Woori Finance 053000 KS HOLD 14,500 14,500 N/A 10,359 7.1 5.5 0.8 0.7 2.8 Hana Financ
3、ial 086790 KS BUY 33,000 56,000 N/A 6,123 6.6 6.1 0.7 0.6 3.0 Ind Bank of Korea 024110 KS BUY 13,850 20,000 N/A 6,674 6.0 4.2 0.8 0.7 3.2 Daegu Bank 005270 KS BUY 14,500 19,000 N/A 1,698 7.2 5.9 0.9 0.8 4.1 Busan Bank 005280 KS BUY 11,700 15,000 N/A 1,936 7.2 5.9 0.9 0.8 4.3 Prices as at 15 March 20
4、10; Source: Bloomberg, BNP Paribas estimates INDUSTRY OUTLOOK The market is again concerned about real estate PF loans. Unlisted savings banks have more exposure to PF vs listed commercials. Savings banks exposure is 18.2% of total loans vs banks 4.3%. Our sensitivity analysis: stick with Hana, Shin
5、han and IBK on this theme. Rising PF concerns?Negative sentiment wave building with PF concerns According to local press reports, there could be another wave of threat from real estate project financing (PF) loan defaults starting August. Thus far, banks, insurance companies and securities brokers w
6、ere relatively unscathed from potential PF defaults mainly due to government assistance in rollover of PF loans through programs such as FastTrack. However, the FastTrack program is set to expire mid-2010 after being extended from end-2009. Among the KRW82t PF loans in the system, banks have KRW50t
7、and saving banks have KRW12t, while the rest are spread to insurance and brokers. Also, out of the KRW82t amount, KRW42t is set aside for building/apartments and KRW40t is related to land. Unlisted savings banks to be affected more than listed banksProblem appears to be bigger for savings banks vs l
8、isted commercial banks. First, savings banks exposure to PF is 18.2% of total loans (average) while banks exposure is 4.3% and insurances 5.7%. Second, savings banks delinquency ratio from PF loans has increased from 9.6% as of 2Q09 to 10.6% in 4Q09, according to press reports. Delinquency ratio of
9、listed commercial banks is benign at less than 1.0% and has shown a declining trend since 2Q09. According to our sensitivity analysis, Woori, Daegu and KB have the highest exposure of PF loans as a percentage of total credit at 5.9%, 5.6% and 5.1%, respectively. We also estimate that every 10% defau
10、lt of PF loans represents 39bps of credit cost impact and 30bps BIS ratio impact. Maintain POSITIVE view; prefer Hana, Shinhan and IBK We believe sentiment may be weak on Korean banks due to uncertainty over PF loans. However, we also believe the government will not sit idle but move into action wit
11、h reviews of SMEs related to PF determining whether or not to extend credit to healthier PF/construction players. We think programs such as FastTrack may be extended if this means avoiding bank failures, particularly for unlisted savings banks. We continue to have a POSITIVE view on the sector with
12、preference for Hana and Shinhan, especially in light of their lower exposure to PF loans. The other bank that shines on this front is IBK with the lowest exposure at 1.5% of total credit.Dean Kim +822 2125 0544 渐飞研究报告 - http:/DEAN KIM KOREA BANKS 16 MARCH 2010 2 BNP PARIBASExhibit 1: Project Financ
13、ing Exposure Trend As of 4Q09 As of 1Q09 Total PF exposure PF loans PF related securities (ABS/ABCP) % of PF exposure as of total credit Total credit Total PF exposure PF loans PF related securities (ABS/ABCP) % of PF exposure as of total credit Total credit (KRW b) (KRW b) (KRW b) (%) (KRW b) (KRW
14、b) (KRW b) (KRW b) (%) (KRW b) Kookmin 10,374 9,980 394 5.1 204,479 12,169 11,700 469 5.7 214,638 Shinhan 7,200 5,500 1,700 4.8 150,175 8,100 6,000 2,100 5.3 152,091 Woori 10,100 9,895 205 5.9 170,006 17,100 14,400 2,700 9.7 177,121 Hana * na na na na na 2,805 2,713 92 2.7 104,487 IBK * 1,860 1,720
15、140 1.5 120,585 1,860 1,720 140 1.6 113,500 Daegu 1,066 1,066 0 5.6 18,943 1,100 1,100 0 6.1 17,947 Busan 886 749 137 4.3 20,381 1,343 1,197 145 6.7 20,070 Note: Bank Only *For Hana bank, 4Q09 is not available * For IBK, used 1Q09 figure since changed amount is minimal Sources: Company data; BNP Par
16、ibas estimates Exhibit 2: Project Financing Sensitivity Analysis As of 4Q09 Case 1: Default in 10% of PF exposure Case 2: Default in 20% of PF exposure Total PF exposure PF loans PF related securities (ABS/ABCP) % of PF exposure as of total credit Total credit Credit cost BIS ratio Credit cost BIS r
17、atio (KRW b) (KRW b) (KRW b) (%) (KRW b) (change bp) (change bp) (change bp) (change bp) Kookmin 10,374 9,980 394 5.1 204,479 50 (48) 101 (97) Shinhan 7,200 5,500 1,700 4.8 150,175 41 (39) 82 (78) Woori 10,100 9,895 205 5.9 170,006 48 (31) 96 (62) Hana * 2,805 2,713 92 2.7 104,487 26 (23) 52 (46) IB
18、K 1,860 1,720 140 1.5 120,585 14 (8) 28 (16) Daegu 1,066 1,066 0 5.6 18,943 53 (36) 106 (72) Busan 886 749 137 4.3 20,381 40 (26) 80 (53) Note: Bank Only * Used 1Q09 figure due to lack of information Sources: Company data; BNP Paribas estimates 渐飞研究报告 - http:/DEAN KIM KOREA BANKS 16 MARCH 2010 3 BNP
19、 PARIBASFINANCIAL STATEMENTS KB Financial Profit and Loss (KRW b) Year Ending Dec 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012EInterest income 16,739 14,582 15,953 17,456 18,851Interest expense (9,333) (8,168) (8,618) (9,777) (10,524)Net interest income 7,406 6,414 7,335 7,678 8,326Net fees BNP Paribas estimates We
20、 believe earnings will normalize from 2010 For KB, net interest income from bank accounts forms a big portion of group earnings NIM for the group is higher than bank-only 渐飞研究报告 - http:/DEAN KIM KOREA BANKS 16 MARCH 2010 4 BNP PARIBASKB Financial Balance Sheet (KRW b) Year Ending Dec 2008A 2009A 201
21、0E 2011E 2012EGross customer loans 202,408 198,490 209,404 224,174 245,835Total provisions (3,477) (3,423) (3,632) (3,806) (3,973)Interest in suspense 0 0 0 0 0Net customer loans 198,930 195,067 205,772 220,367 241,862Bank loans 0 6,046 8,917 10,809 9,754Government securities 0 0 0 0 0Trading securi
22、ties 38,985 2,995 3,145 3,302 3,467Investment securities 0 12,537 13,164 13,822 14,513Cash BNP Paribas estimates Loan growth will recover from 2010 LDR, including CD, is lower than this figure 渐飞研究报告 - http:/DEAN KIM KOREA BANKS 16 MARCH 2010 5 BNP PARIBASShinhan Financial Profit and Loss (KRW b) Ye
23、ar Ending Dec 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012EInterest income 15,877 13,793 15,544 16,960 18,105Interest expense (8,866) (7,286) (8,201) (9,263) (9,993)Net interest income 7,011 6,507 7,343 7,697 8,112Net fees BNP Paribas estimates Non-interest income in 2007 includes a KRW464.8b gain from the sale of
24、LG Card Net-interest income includes commissions from credit-card sales from 2005 under the new accounting rules 渐飞研究报告 - http:/DEAN KIM KOREA BANKS 16 MARCH 2010 6 BNP PARIBASShinhan Financial Balance Sheet (KRW b) Year Ending Dec 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012EGross customer loans 173,849 170,728 17
25、9,647 192,175 207,475Total provisions (3,504) (3,765) (3,503) (3,077) (2,887)Interest in suspense 0 0 0 0 0Net customer loans 170,345 166,964 176,144 189,098 204,587Bank loans 11,216 14,009 13,604 13,211 12,823Government securities 0 0 0 0 0Trading securities 8,838 9,229 9,506 9,696 9,890Investment
26、securities 38,648 42,063 43,324 44,191 45,075Cash BNP Paribas estimates Loan growth should be similar to expected GDP growth in 2010 渐飞研究报告 - http:/DEAN KIM KOREA BANKS 16 MARCH 2010 7 BNP PARIBASWoori Finance Profit and Loss (KRW b) Year Ending Dec 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011EInterest income 13,01
27、6 16,721 16,040 17,128 18,613Interest expense (7,920) (10,742) (10,436) (10,842) (11,764)Net interest income 5,096 5,979 5,604 6,285 6,848Net fees BNP Paribas estimates Woori Finance to recognise KRW512b from the sale of 8.7m shares of LG Card to Shinhan Financial Net interest income includes commis
28、sions from credit-card sales in 2005 under the new accounting rules 渐飞研究报告 - http:/DEAN KIM KOREA BANKS 16 MARCH 2010 8 BNP PARIBASWoori Finance Balance Sheet (KRW b) Year Ending Dec 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011EGross customer loans 170,030 200,587 199,764 213,932 232,913Total provisions (2,395) (3,
29、546) (2,537) (2,931) (3,144)Interest in suspense 0 0 0 0 0Net customer loans 167,635 197,041 197,227 211,001 229,769Bank loans 11,204 15,801 15,280 15,917 18,760Government securities 0 0 0 0 0Trading securities 16,228 16,502 17,327 19,060 20,965Investment securities 32,000 30,213 31,749 34,923 38,41
30、6Cash BNP Paribas estimates We expect loan growth to slow in 2009 渐飞研究报告 - http:/DEAN KIM KOREA BANKS 16 MARCH 2010 9 BNP PARIBASHana Financial Profit and Loss (KRW b) Year Ending Dec 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012EInterest income 8,161 7,071 8,609 9,377 9,742Interest expense (5,741) (4,955) (5,748) (
31、6,420) (6,504)Net interest income 2,420 2,115 2,861 2,958 3,238Net fees BNP Paribas estimates Reflects KRW200b from the LG Card disposal Earnings would normalize from 2010 渐飞研究报告 - http:/DEAN KIM KOREA BANKS 16 MARCH 2010 10 BNP PARIBASHana Financial Balance Sheet (KRW b) Year Ending Dec 2008A 2009A
32、 2010E 2011E 2012EGross customer loans 104,554 105,207 109,615 118,940 129,156Total provisions (2,050) (1,638) (1,932) (1,937) (1,798)Interest in suspense 0 0 0 0 0Net customer loans 102,504 103,569 107,683 117,003 127,358Bank loans 0 0 0 0 0Government securities 0 0 0 0 0Trading securities 5,288 5,
33、568 5,909 6,204 6,515Investment securities 19,348 20,638 21,608 22,688 23,823Cash BNP Paribas estimates Loan growth should be similar to expected GDP growth from 2010 渐飞研究报告 - http:/DEAN KIM KOREA BANKS 16 MARCH 2010 11 BNP PARIBASInd Bank of Korea Profit and Loss (KRW b) Year Ending Dec 2007A 2008A
34、 2009E 2010E 2011EInterest income 6,889 8,369 9,111 10,553 11,963Interest expense (4,047) (5,137) (5,525) (6,317) (7,163)Net interest income 2,841 3,232 3,586 4,236 4,799Net fees BNP Paribas estimates Earnings should normalize from 2010 Reflects KRW332b gain from the LG Card share disposal and KRW23
35、b dividend from KT BNP Paribas estimates High loan-to-deposit ratio on weak deposit base 渐飞研究报告 - http:/DEAN KIM KOREA BANKS 16 MARCH 2010 13 BNP PARIBASDaegu Bank Profit and Loss (KRW b) Year Ending Dec 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012EInterest income 1,600 1,535 1,766 1,931 2,137Interest expense (844)
36、 (744) (916) (1,013) (1,118)Net interest income 755 791 850 919 1,019Net fees BNP Paribas estimates Daegu Bank had a high NIM due to strong low-cost funding related to the regional community; long-term outlook looks stable 渐飞研究报告 - http:/DEAN KIM KOREA BANKS 16 MARCH 2010 14 BNP PARIBASDaegu Bank Ba
37、lance Sheet (KRW b) Year Ending Dec 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012EGross customer loans 17,805 19,108 20,510 22,791 25,326Total provisions (281) (343) (336) (355) (382)Interest in suspense 0 0 0 0 0Net customer loans 17,523 18,765 20,174 22,436 24,944Bank loans 1,755 979 1,216 1,313 1,418Government se
38、curities 0 0 0 0 0Trading securities 0 43 0 0 0Investment securities 4,656 5,160 5,775 6,237 6,736Cash BNP Paribas estimates Loan growth would be faster than peers 渐飞研究报告 - http:/DEAN KIM KOREA BANKS 16 MARCH 2010 15 BNP PARIBASBusan Bank Profit and Loss (KRW b) Year Ending Dec 2008A 2009A 2010E 201
39、1E 2012EInterest income 1,784 1,683 1,847 1,982 2,128Interest expense (965) (805) (948) (1,015) (1,099)Net interest income 819 878 899 968 1,029Net fees BNP Paribas estimates Margin deterioration in 2009 渐飞研究报告 - http:/DEAN KIM KOREA BANKS 16 MARCH 2010 16 BNP PARIBASBusan Bank Balance Sheet (KRW b)
40、 Year Ending Dec 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012EGross customer loans 19,736 20,517 22,581 24,035 26,103Total provisions (296) (318) (344) (378) (412)Interest in suspense 0 0 0 0 0Net customer loans 19,440 20,199 22,237 23,657 25,691Bank loans 1,474 875 423 1,379 1,346Government securities 0 0 0 0 0Tra
41、ding securities 8 8 8 8 9Investment securities 5,230 5,760 5,933 6,230 6,852Cash BNP Paribas estimates Loan growth to slow in 2009 渐飞研究报告 - http:/DEAN KIM KOREA BANKS 16 MARCH 2010 17 BNP PARIBASINTEREST DISCLOSURE Interests with the Company Company Ticker Price (15 March 2010 closing price) Interes
42、t Busan Bank 005280 KS KRW11,700 na Daegu Bank 005270 KS KRW14,500 na Hana Financial Group 086790 KS KRW33,000 na Industrial Bank of Korea 024110 KS KRW13,850 na KB Financial Group 105560 KS KRW51,100 na Shinhan Financial Group 055550 KS KRW43,700 na Woori Finance Holdings 053000 KS KRW14,500 na 1 T
43、he performance of obligations of the Company is directly or indirectly guaranteed by BNP Paribas Securities Korea (“BNPP”) by means of payment guarantees, endorsements, and provision of collaterals and/or taking over the obligations. 2 BNPP owns 1/100 or more of the total outstanding shares issued b
44、y the Company. 3 The Company is an affiliate of BNPP as prescribed by Item 3, Article 2 of the Monopoly Regulation and Fair Trade Act. 4 BNPP is the financial advisory agent of the Company for the Merger and Acquisition transaction or of the Target Company whereby the size of the transaction does no
45、t exceed 5/100 of the total asset of the Company or the total number of outstanding shares. 5 BNPP has taken financial advisory service regarding listing to the Company within the past 1 year. 6 With regards to the tender offer initiated by the Company based on Item 2, Article 133 of the Financial I
46、nvestment Services and Capital Market Act, BNPP acts in the capacity of the agent for the tender offer designated either by the Company or by the target company, provided that this provision shall apply only where tender offer has not expired. 7 the listed company which issued the stocks in question
47、 in case where 40 days has not passed since the new shares were listed from the date of entering into arrangement for public offering or underwriting-related agreement for issuance of stocks 8 The Company is recognized as having considerable interests with BNPP. 9 The analyst or his/her spouse owns
48、(including delivery claims of marketable securities based on legal regulations and trading and misc. contracts) the following securities or rights (hereinafter referred to as “Securities, etc.” in this Article) regardless of whose name is used in the trading. 1. Stocks, bond with stock certificate, and certificate of pre-emptive rights issued by the Company whose securities dealings are being solicited. 2. Stock options of the Company whose securities dealings are being solicited. 3. Individual stock future, stock option,
