1、Next Generation Wireless Competitive Analysis A New Competitive Paradigm? December 2004,Grant Garge & Ray Chou GTSS Competitive Intelligence Monthly Briefing,Headlines,Competitive rivalry in wireless data market is set to increase dramatically,WiMAX appears to have greater market potential than othe
2、r alternative technologies,Traditional infrastructure vendors have very mixed approaches to alternative technology investment,Motorola is well positioned to secure a head start in WiMAX,Mobile Broadband Market,Source: Harris Nesbitt & IDC, April 2004,Which technology will derive maximum wireless dat
3、a revenues?,Technology Landscape Beyond 3G,Realistic Data Rate (kbps),Local Area Fixed,Metro Area Nomadic,Wide Area Mobile,0,100,000,3GPP2,3GPP,UMTS,EDGE,GPRS,GSM,CDMA 1x,802.16-2004 (Fixed NLOS),802.16a (Fixed LOS),802.11n (smart antennas),802.11a/b/g (mesh antennas),10,100,1,000,10,000,IEEE,Key Fa
4、ctors for New Technology Adoption,Performance,Device Support,Standards / Spectrum,Cost,Timing,Market Support,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,Market Support,Market Potential,Timing,Cost,Standards / Spectrum,Device Support,Performance,Theoretical & actual data rates Uplink & downlink allocations Suitability f
5、or VOIP,Major vendor device support Chipset availability,Standards ratification Spectrum allocations,Ignore cost to consumer Deployment costs New network or network upgrade,Standards completion Chipset & device availability Network availability,Vendor endorsement (R&D) Operator endorsement (trials),
6、CDMA2000 1X EV-DO/DV,TD-CDMA (UMTS-TDD),TD-SCDMA,FLASH-OFDM & MOBILFI,WIMAX (801.16),HSDPA/UPA: 4.3,HSDPA / HSUPA: Just Around the Corner,Performance,Device Support,Standards / Spectrum,Cost,Timing,Market Support,Time to market will be crucial for HSDPA / HSUPA Any serious delays will give UMTS-TDD
7、and Flash-OFDM more market opportunities as these already have commercially available solutions Delays may also put EV-DO ahead, which already is more advanced than WCDMA,4,3,5,5,4,5,MARKET SUPPORT,MARKET POTENTIAL,TIMING,COST,STANDARDS/SPECTRUM,DEVICE SUPPORT,PERFORMANCE,Much needed boost for WCDMA
8、 2-14.4 Mbps range, realistic 900 Kbps High speed downlink, limited uplink HSUPA expected late 2007,Data cards from major vendors by 4Q05 But will depend on chipset availability Integration, handover, battery issues,HSDPA is an add-on to WCDMA Operate in same UMTS spectrum No spectrum issues,Softwar
9、e upgrade, likely cost effective Utilizes WCDMA installed base Economies of scale,Infrastructure/mobiles in 2005-2006 But at present timescales slipping Delays are entirely possible,HSDPA developed by all major vendors Vodafone to roll-out HSDPA in 2005 Also NTT DoCoMo, Cingular Wireless,CDMA2000 1X
10、 EV-DO/DV,TD-CDMA (UMTS-TDD),TD-SCDMA,FLASH-OFDM & MOBILFI,WIMAX (801.16),HSDPA / HSUPA: 4.3,4.3,CDMA 2000 1X EV-DO / -DV: Gaining Momentum,Performance,Device Support,Standards / Spectrum,Cost,Timing,Market Support,EV-DO is gaining momentum with large-scale planned commercial deployments by Verizon
11、and newly formed Sprint-Nextel Like HSDPA/UPA, the installed base of existing and planned EV-DO deployments (and commercial CDMA 1X networks operating globally) creates a substantial competitive advantage over alternative next-generation technologies.,4,3,5,5,4,4,MARKET SUPPORT,MARKET POTENTIAL,TIMI
12、NG,COST,STANDARDS/SPECTRUM,DEVICE SUPPORT,PERFORMANCE,EV-DO is upgrade to CDMA200 Rev. 0: 2.4 Mbps, average 300-500 Kbps Limited uplink performance To be addressed by Rev. A or EV-DV,Large number of devices available Japan & Korea subscribers mainly Devices from mainstream vendors,Standard ratified
13、No spectrum issues EV-DO uses same carrier as CDMA 1X,Software and some hardware upgrades Installed base of CDMA 1X networks Economies of scale,Slightly quicker than HSDPA/HSUPA Uplink 12-18 months ahead of HSUPA Widespread network availability,Commercially deployed KDDI, SK Telecom and KT FreeTel V
14、erizon Wireless & Sprint-Nextel,CDMA2000 1X EV-DO/DV: 4.2,TD-CDMA (UMTS-TDD),TD-SCDMA,FLASH-OFDM & MOBILFI,WIMAX (801.16),HSDPA / HSUPA: 4.3,4.2,TD-CDMA (UMTS-TDD): Potential in TDD Band,Performance,Device Support,Standards / Spectrum,Cost,Timing,Market Support,UMTS-TDD has a good potential in the T
15、DD band but this situation may change as spectrum restrictions in Europe relax. If more spectrum is allocated to FDD, TDD may lose out as a result which means its future is limited in most parts of the world. Mobile implementations is also far from occurring.,3,1,3,1,2,2,MARKET SUPPORT,MARKET POTENT
16、IAL,TIMING,COST,STANDARDS/SPECTRUM,DEVICE SUPPORT,PERFORMANCE,High speed data focused technology Downlink: 2.4 Mbps, 600-700 Kbps avg. Slightly inferior to HSDPA, and EV-DV,End user equipment quite limited Lack devices from mainstream vendors Mainly IPWireless only,Incorporated in 3GPP Release 99 Mo
17、st operators have TDD spectrum Some regions no TDD spectrum Spectrum in Europe may change,Cost Relatively High No developed by any main vendors No economies of scale,Standard ratified Mobile implementation far away Handsets not available any time soon,Lack of vendor backing UMTS TDD Alliance 40 memb
18、ers However no significant development,CDMA2000 1X EV-DO/DV: 4.2,TD-CDMA (UMTS-TDD): 2.0,TD-SCDMA,FLASH-OFDM & MOBILFI,WIMAX (801.16),HSDPA / HSUPA: 4.3,2.0,TD-SCDMA: Focus on China, Only,Performance,Device Support,Standards / Spectrum,Cost,Timing,Market Support,TD-SCDMA will likely have limited mar
19、ket potential outside of China as it is still affected by technical issues. Its continuous delays will likely put it behind other next generation technologies. It is still uncertain whether the technology will be implemented at all.,3,1,3,2,2,3,MARKET SUPPORT,MARKET POTENTIAL,TIMING,COST,STANDARDS/S
20、PECTRUM,DEVICE SUPPORT,PERFORMANCE,Very much the same as TD-CDMA 3.9 Mbps, realistic 300-500 Kbps Asymmetric resource allocation Better for data intensive applications,Chipsets available from TI and ADI Major vendors in process of developing devices Tests show devices far from ready,3GPP approved st
21、andard Spectrum is allocated in China Limited potential outside of China,Cost is still relatively high as technology not deployed in any other parts of the world No economies of scale yet,Unresolved technical issues Continuous delays Limited chipset & device availability,Support by main equipment ve
22、ndors Limited success so far China specific technology,CDMA2000 1X EV-DO/DV: 4.2,TD-CDMA (UMTS-TDD): 2.0,TD-SCDMA: 2.3,FLASH-OFDM & MOBILFI,WIMAX (801.16),HSDPA / HSUPA: 4.3,2.3,Flash OFDM & MobilFi: Future Still Unclear,Performance,Device Support,Standards / Spectrum,Cost,Timing,Market Support,Flas
23、h-OFDM is further down the mobility track than WiMax standards, we feel that it has the potential to leave WiMax strong in fixed wireless standard and portable services above 3GHz. However for this to happen Flarion will need to secure far more significant OEM deals and trials, which is unlikely goi
24、ng to happen.,3,1,1,2,3,2,MARKET SUPPORT,MARKET POTENTIAL,TIMING,COST,STANDARDS/SPECTRUM,DEVICE SUPPORT,PERFORMANCE,Claimed peak speeds 3.2 Mbps Realistically 1-1.5 Mbps Uplink around 500 Kbps Roughly on par with TDD technologies,Devices built must use Flarion designs Devices mainly from Flarion onl
25、y Lack of devices from mainstream vendors,F-OFDM is Flarions variant of 802.20 Standard is not ratified Proprietary technology Cannot be used in UMTS spectrum,Costs high as not developed by any other equipment vendor apart from Siemens,Technology is fine in timing Integration is still at an early st
26、age Slow progress with standardization of 802.20 standard,High profile operator trials but none a firm commitment Major trial at Nextel Partnership with Siemens and NetGear,CDMA2000 1X EV-DO/DV: 4.2,TD-CDMA (UMTS-TDD): 2.0,TD-SCDMA: 2.3,FLASH-OFDM & MOBILFI: 2.0,WIMAX (801.16),HSDPA / HSUPA: 4.3,2.0
27、,WiMax (802.16): Industry Interest Rising Rapidly,Performance,Device Support,Standards / Spectrum,Cost,Timing,Market Support,Interest over WiMax has increased rapidly over the last 18 months. WiMax has a lot of potential, which will position it in third place behind HSDPA and EV-DO. Intel hopes to d
28、rive WiMax adoption and lower CPE costs by integrating and commoditizing WiMax radios into chips.,5,2,5,3,2,4,MARKET SUPPORT,MARKET POTENTIAL,TIMING,COST,STANDARDS/SPECTRUM,DEVICE SUPPORT,PERFORMANCE,High speed mobile broadband Downlink of 70 Mbps Large cell sizes,Handsets not expected any time soon
29、 802.16d equipment may not be upgrade-able to 802.16e,Standard is ratified by IEEE Operates in unlicensed bands Lowers cost of entry barriers,High CPE and infrastructure costs Significant cost disadvantage against cable/DSL Situation will likely improve,802.16d/e standardization in progress Implemen
30、tation by operators will not occur until 802.16e,Broad + diverse industry support WiMax Forum 100+ members Backed by Intel,CDMA2000 1X EV-DO/DV: 4.2,TD-CDMA (UMTS-TDD): 2.0,TD-SCDMA: 2.3,FLASH-OFDM & MOBILFI: 2.0,WIMAX (801.16): 3.5,HSDPA / HSUPA: 4.3,3.5,Competitive Landscape Beyond 3G,Realistic Da
31、ta Rate (kbps),Local Area Fixed,Metro Area Nomadic,Wide Area Mobile,0,100,000,10,100,1,000,10,000,Alcatel,1.5,0.0,0.0,4.0,1.5,0.0,FLASH OFDM,802.16,TD-SCDMA,TD-CDMA,CDMA2000 1xEVDO,W-CDMA & HSDPA,Reliant on French operators Spatial Wireless softswitch portfolio,No presence in CDMA,No presence in TD-
32、CDMA,Partnerships with Siemens & Datung,Joined WiMAX Forum in June 04 Suspected internal development Strong investment links with Navini,No presence in Flash OFDM & 802.20,W-CDMA & HSDPA,CDMA2000 1xEVDO,TD-CDMA,TD-SCDMA,802.16,Flash OFDM & 802.20,LOOKING TOWARD WIMAX,Weak position in WCDMA marketalt
33、hough recent acquisition of Spatial Wireless boosts technical roadmapattempting to differentiate itself with a diversified product portfolio that includes TDS-SCDMA, 802.16 & IMS,Ericsson,4.0,2.0,0.0,0.0,0.5,0.0,FLASH OFDM,802.16,TD-SCDMA,TD-CDMA,CDMA2000 1xEVDO,W-CDMA & HSDPA,Market leader with ove
34、r 30% share Cingular win confirms momentum Issues with HSDPA upgrade path,Claims 10% CDMA contract share,No presence in TD-CDMA,No presence in TD-SCDMA,Joined WiMAX Forum in December 04 Playing wait and see game May be investigating acquisitions,No presence in Flash OFDM & 802.20,W-CDMA & HSDPA,CDMA
35、2000 1xEVDO,TD-CDMA,TD-SCDMA,802.16,Flash OFDM & 802.20,Clear market leader in W-CDMAalso gaining momentum in CDMAstrong positions in traditional markets allows a wait and see position on WiMAX and other next generation technologies,WAIT & SEE,Lucent,1.5,4.5,0.0,0.0,0.5,0.0,FLASH OFDM,802.16,TD-SCDM
36、A,TD-CDMA,CDMA2000 1xEVDO,W-CDMA & HSDPA,No presence in GSM Beginning to secure place in W-CDMA Cingular win and O2 HSDPA trial,Market leader with over 30% share,No presence in TD-CDMA,No presence in TD-SCDMA,Joined WiMAX Forum in November 04 Acquired Telica for VOIP services,No presence in Flash OF
37、DM & 802.20,W-CDMA & HSDPA,CDMA2000 1xEVDO,TD-CDMA,TD-SCDMA,802.16,Flash OFDM & 802.20,Weak but gaining momentum in W-CDMAclear market leader in CDMAstrong positions in traditional markets allows a wait and see position on WiMAX and other next generation technologies,WAIT & SEE,Motorola,2.5,3.0,0.0,
38、0.0,3.0,0.5,FLASH OFDM,802.16,TD-SCDMA,TD-CDMA,CDMA2000 1xEVDO,W-CDMA & HSDPA,Struggling to secure place in W-CDMA Strong technical solution Suffering from declining R&D budget,Holding steady share in CDMA China Unicom win confirms momentum,No presence in TD-CDMA,No presence in TD-SCDMA,Joined WiMAX
39、 Forum in June 04 Acquired Winphoria & Mesh Networks Links with Navini & Orthogon,Some work with Flarion for Nextel,W-CDMA & HSDPA,CDMA2000 1xEVDO,TD-CDMA,TD-SCDMA,802.16,Flash OFDM & 802.20,Weak in W-CDMA despite strong technical solutionmaintaining place in CDMAwell positioned to get a head start
40、in WiMAX by leveraging 802.XX technologies from IESS,OPPORTUNITY TO WIN IN WIMAX,Nokia,3.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.5,0.0,FLASH OFDM,802.16,TD-SCDMA,TD-CDMA,CDMA2000 1xEVDO,W-CDMA & HSDPA,2nd in W-CDMA with about 15% share Losing momentum due to technical issues (T-Mobile rip & Cingular loss) Lost 2 top execut
41、ives,No presence in CDMA,No presence in TD-CDMA,No presence in TD-SCDMA,Founding member of WiMAX Forum Left in May 04 & rejoined in June 04 Sold rooftop offering to start-up,No presence in Flash OFDM & 802.20,W-CDMA & HSDPA,CDMA2000 1xEVDO,TD-CDMA,TD-SCDMA,802.16,Flash OFDM & 802.20,Strong in W-CDMA
42、 but losing ground due to technical problems and poor upgrade to HSDPAconfused WiMAX strategy has reduced benefits of early entry to WiMAX forum,CONFUSED ABOUT WIMAX,Nortel,2.5,4.0,0.0,1.0,2.0,0.0,FLASH OFDM,802.16,TD-SCDMA,TD-CDMA,CDMA2000 1xEVDO,W-CDMA & HSDPA,5th in W-CDMA (chased by Huawei) Gain
43、ing traction with recent Sprint & Cingular wins & O2 HSDPA trial,2nd in CDMA with around 20% share,No presence in TD-CDMA,Limited commitment to TD-SCMA,Joined WiMAX Forum in November 04 Several WiFi mesh network trials Strong in converged networks,No presence in Flash OFDM & 802.20,W-CDMA & HSDPA,CD
44、MA2000 1xEVDO,TD-CDMA,TD-SCDMA,802.16,Flash OFDM & 802.20,Holding position in W-CDMAstrong challenger in CDMAleveraging WiFi mesh networks competence to move forward in WiMAX,INTERESTED IN WIMAX,Siemens,3.5,0.0,0.0,4.5,3.5,2.0,FLASH OFDM,802.16,TD-SCDMA,TD-CDMA,CDMA2000 1xEVDO,W-CDMA & HSDPA,3rd in
45、W-CDMA (incl. TMN & Maxis) Mopping up W-CDMA Nokia rips,No presence in CDMA,No presence in TD-CDMA,Leading proponent of TD-SCDMA,Founding member of WiMAX Forum Resells Alvarion WiMAX kit but announced internal development Recently acquired Chantry,Partnered with Flaion for Flash OFDM,W-CDMA & HSDPA,
46、CDMA2000 1xEVDO,TD-CDMA,TD-SCDMA,802.16,Flash OFDM & 802.20,Strong and gaining momentum in W-CDMAleading proponent of TD-SCDMAvery active in 802.16 & partnering for FLASH OFDM,COVERING ALL BASES,Competitive Landscape Beyond 3G,Realistic Data Rate (kbps),Local Area Fixed,Metro Area Nomadic,Wide Area
47、Mobile,0,100,000,10,100,1,000,10,000,Huawei,2.0,1.0,0.0,4.0,0.5,0.0,FLASH OFDM,802.16,TD-SCDMA,TD-CDMA,CDMA2000 1xEVDO,W-CDMA & HSDPA,Gaining momentum in W-CDMA with 1st European contract win (Telfort) and several in MEA region Set to win big in China 3G roll-out,Some presence in CDMA,No presence in TD-CDMA,Leading proponent of TD-SCDMA,Joined WiMAX Forum in November 04 Difficult to gauge WiMAX strategy due to scarce information suspect making investments in R&D,No presence in Flash OFDM & 802.20,W-CDMA & HSDPA,CDMA2000 1xEVDO,
