1、 September 12, 2012 COMMENT China Mobile (HK) (0941.HK) HK$82.85 Equity ResearchLTE licensing timetable in line with expectations; positive for CM News On Sep 11, CCID.COM reported that the minister of MIIT (Ministry of Industry and Information Technology), Mr. Miao Wei stated that 4G licenses proba
2、bly would be issued in around one year, which is earlier than the time frame of in two to three years indicated in March. The news report also quoted Minister Miao as saying that 1) China Mobile (CM) plans to build up 450K TD-LTE base stations in three years, or shorter in case of more funding or po
3、licy supports; 2) There are still technical issues on 4G handsets regarding 2G/3G/4G compatibility and international roaming; 3) Private companies may be allowed to participate the FTTH last mile construction in the newly built residential area. Analysis 1) The LTE licensing timetable is in line wit
4、h our expectation of early 2014E and we believe CM could start large scale TD-LTE commercial trials by end of 2013E, which would potentially help CM recruit and retain its high-end users; 2) The base station buildup roadmap is consistent with CMs schedule of 20K/200K in 2012E/2013E, respectively; 3)
5、 We dont view technology as the bottleneck for 4G handsets. We expect HTC, Samsung, Huawei and ZTE etc to launch LTE handsets with Qualcomms Snapdragon 8960 by end of this year or early 2013E. CM recently started biddings for TD-LTE equipment and terminals; although most terminals would be data card
6、s and CPE (Customer Premise Equipment), we view this as a positive for the supply chain; 4) The Ministers indication on last mile shows the regulators intention to further break broadband monopoly. We think the potential intensifying competition as posing a high risk in CU/CTs fixed line business an
7、d profitability. We estimate broadband contributes 16%/24% of CU/CTs revenue in 2012E with 45% above GPM, well above companys GPM of 29%/35% (pre-leasing fee for CT), respectively. Implications We view this as from the regulator as incremental positive for CM and negative for CU/CT. Maintain Buy on
8、CM, Neutral on CU/CT. INVESTMENT LIST MEMBERSHIP Asia Pacific Buy List GS SUSTAIN Focus List Coverage View: Neutral Donald Lu, Ph.D +86(10)6627-3123 Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company LimitedGoldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, inv
9、estors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appen
10、dix, or go to Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S. Lingling Hu +86(10)6627-3520 Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company LimitedThe Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Global Investment ResearchSeptember 12, 2012 China Mobile (HK) (0941.HK
11、) HK$82.85 Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 2 Other disclosures Research written by Donald Lu on companies listed in Taiwan is written by him in his capacity as consultant to Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C Any other research is written in his capacity as employee of Beijing Gao Hua Securities Co
12、mpany Limited September 12, 2012 China Mobile (HK) (0941.HK) HK$82.85 Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 3 Disclosure Appendix Reg AC We, Donald Lu, Ph.D and Lingling Hu, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject compa
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30、eprinted without permission. Investors should carefully consider their own investment risk. Investment results are the responsibility of the individual investor. United China M obile (HK) (0941.HK)1009584858281828794939086886065707580859095100404550556065707580Goldman Sachs rating and stock price ta
31、rget historyStock Price Currency : Hong Kong DollarSource: Goldman Sachs Investment Research for ratings and price targets; FactSet closing prices as of 6/30/2012.The price targets show n should be considered in the context of all prior published Goldman Sachs research, w hich may or may not have in
32、cluded price targets, as w ell as developments relating to the company, its industry and financial markets.RatingPrice targetPrice target at removalCovered by Donald Lu, Ph.D,as of Jan 5, 2011Not covered by current analystMSCI ChinaIndexPriceStock Price Jan 5 Mar 8B NABS O N D J F M A M J J A S O N
33、D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J2009 2010 2011 2012China Mobile (HK) (ADR) (CHL)64615455535252.756.260.7259.8557.6955.1356.41404550556065404550556065707580Goldman Sachs rating and stock price target historyStock Pric e Currency : U.S. DollarSource: Goldman Sachs Investment Research for ratings
34、and price targets; FactSet closing prices as of 6/30/2012.The price targets show n should be considered in the context of all prior published Goldman Sachs research, w hich may or may not have included price targets, as w ell as developments relating to the company, its industry and financial market
35、s.RatingPrice targetPrice target at removalCovered by Donald Lu, Ph.D,as of Jan 5, 2011Not covered by current analystMSCI ChinaIndexPriceStock Price Jan 5 Mar 8B NABS O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J2009 2010 2011 2012September 12, 2012 China Mobile (HK) (0941.HK) HK
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