1、Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries,Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries,1,3,5,Monthly Oil Market Report,47,67,Tel +43 1 21112 Fax +43 1 2164320 E-mail: pridopec.org Web site: www.opec.org,OPECMarch 2012Feature Article:Japan: one year afterOil market highlightsFeature arti
2、cleCrude oil price movements,Commodity marketsWorld economyWorld oil demandWorld oil supplyProduct markets and refinery operationsTanker marketOil tradeStock movements,10152737535662,Balance of supply and demandHelferstorferstrasse 17, A-1010 Vienna, AustriaTel +43 1 21112 Fax +43 1 2164320 E-mail:
3、pridopec.org Web site: www.opec.org,1,_Monthly Oil Market Report,Oil Market Highlights,The OPEC Reference Basket continued to move higher in February, settling at $117.48/b,representing an increase of $5.72/b or 5.1% over the previous month. The increase was supportedby geopolitical factors that wer
4、e further amplified by a surge in speculative activities in the crude oilfuture markets. The improvement in US economic data and some positive developments in theGreek financial bailout were also supportive. In February, crude futures also moved higher withNymex WTI increasing by $1.94 to average $1
5、02.26/b and ICE Brent gaining $7.61 to average$119.06/b. Crude oil prices have remained strong in recent days with the OPEC Reference Basketstanding at $124.13/b on 8 March.,World economic growth remains unchanged at 3.4% for 2012 and 3.6% for 2011. The US,continues recovering and is expected to gro
6、w by 2.2% in 2012, unchanged from the previous month.Japans stimulus along with expected reconstruction efforts by the private sector are expected todrive 2012 growth to 1.8%, unchanged from last month The Euro-zones deceleration has flattenedout and growth expectations for 2012 remain at minus 0.2%
7、. Emerging markets seem to continueexpanding at high levels. Chinas forecast has been kept at 8.2% for 2012, while growth in Indiaseconomy has slowed and the 2012 forecast has been revised down to 7.1% from 7.2%. While globaloutput activity has recovered to some extent in the past weeks, downside ri
8、sks prevail.,World oil demand is forecast to grow by 0.9 mb/d in 2012, unchanged from the previous report,following marginally decreased growth of 0.8 mb/d in 2011. The weak pace of growth in the OECDeconomies is negatively affecting oil demand and imposing a high range of uncertainty on potentialco
9、nsumption growth. Although US economic data points toward a better performance, the situationin Europe along with higher oil prices has resulted in considerable uncertainties on the future oildemand for the remainder of the year.,Non-OPEC oil supply is expected to increase by 0.6 mb/d in 2012, follo
10、wing only minor growth of,30 tb/d in the previous year. The 2012 figure represents a downward adjustment of 0.1 mb/d fromthe previous month, mainly due to revisions in forecasts for Syria, the former Sudan, and Yemen, aswell as changes in the supply profile of some countries, in addition to updates
11、to historical data.OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils are expected to average 5.7 mb/d in 2012, an increase of0.4 mb/d over the previous year and unchanged from the previous report. In February, total OPECcrude oil production, according to secondary sources, increased by 140 tb/d to average 30.97 m
12、b/d.,Product market sentiment turned bearish in February, following disappointing demand for middle,distillates due to the weak economy and the mild winter in the Northern Hemisphere. The temporarycold spell in Europe was unable to lift product markets. A continued recovery at the top of the barrelw
13、as outweighed by crude price gains, causing the refinery margins to decline worldwide.,OPEC spot fixtures were higher in February compared to the previous month, averaging,12.3 mb/d. OPEC sailings also increased, but destinations in different regions were mixed. Tonnageavailability on many key route
14、s, as well as the holiday period in the Far East continued to pressuretanker spot freight rates in February, leading to a decline in both dirty and clean rates of 6% and 8%respectively.,In February, US commercial oil stocks increased by 4.0 mb, widening the surplus with the five-,year average to 37.
15、0 mb and stood at 12.6 mb above a year ago. The build was attributable tocrude, which increased by 5.9 mb, while products fell 1.9 mb. In Japan, the most recent monthlydata for January shows that commercial oil inventories declined for the fourth consecutive month by0.9 mb. With this draw, inventori
16、es were 1.4 mb below a year ago, while the deficit with the five-yearaverage remained at 9.8 mb. All of the stockdraw came from crude, which declined by 1.2 mb, whileproducts rose 0.3 mb.,Demand for OPEC crude in 2011 remained unchanged from the previous assessment at,30.1 mb/d, representing a gain
17、of 0.4 mb/d over the 2010 level. In 2012, demand for OPECcrude is projected to average 30.0 mb/d, in line with the previous report and about 0.1 mb/dlower than last year.,March 2012,2,Monthly Oil Market Report_,March 2012,3,_Monthly Oil Market ReportJapan: One year afterA year after Japan was hit by
18、 the tragic events in March 2011, the consequences are still being felt. Themost recent data from 4Q11 shows a contraction of 0.7%, resulting in a yearly GDP drop of 0.7%. Thiscompares to growth of 4.4% in the previous year. The impact has been so dramatic that the initialcomparison to the 1995 Kobe
19、 earthquake when the economy recovered swiftly has turned out to beoverly optimistic. The deceleration in the global economy in 2011 was an additional factor delaying therecovery in Japan.So far this year, there have been signs of an economic improvement which are rooted in three areas. Theglobal re
20、covery appears to have gained some traction in recent months, helping Japanese exports to limittheir decline. Domestic demand also has begun to improve. Retail trade growth, which was negative for mostof last year, has picked up by 2.5% y-o-y in December and by 1.9% in January. In addition, the broa
21、dstimulus efforts undertaken by the government starting last year have enabled not only the reconstruction ofthe devastated areas, but also helped to revive the ailing economy in general. The total stimulus initiated in2011 amounts to 16.1 trillion ($200 bn). The latest stimulus package approved by
22、the Diet in November was12 trillion ($150 bn) and is expected to support the economic recovery this year.These supporting factors have already led to an increase in the composite output purchasing managersindex (PMI) for Japan, as provided by Markit. The index rose from a record low of 35.0 in April
23、 last year tothe February level of 51.2, pointing to an expansion at a level above 50 (see Graph 1). In 2012, Japanseconomy is projected to grow by 1.8%.,Graph 1: Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI),Graph 2: Electricity generating fuel demand, tb/d,555045403530,SA 50+ = ExpansionJan Feb Mar Ap
24、r May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12,5004003002001000,Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 12,4003002001000-100,Source: Markit and Haver Analytics,Cummulative increase (RHS),Crude,Fuel oil,The tragic even
25、ts in Japan have changed the countrys energy map not only for the year 2011, but also overthe medium term. In the wake of Fukushima, Japan has shut down 52 out of a total of 54 of its nuclear reactorsfor an undetermined period. Only 4.6% of Japans total installed nuclear capacity is currently operat
26、ional. Giventhe capability of dual fuel power plants, the country has switched to other forms of fuel LNG, fuel oil, andcrude oil for direct burning in order to generate electricity (see Graph 2). Given the tight supply of low sulfurcrude oil for most of last year, the dominant alternative fuel has
27、been LNG with import volumes jumping byabout 25%. Fuel switching has resulted in positive growth in the countrys oil consumption, in contrast to thenegative trend seen over the past few years, when Japan total oil consumption lost nearly 900,000 b/d between2005 and 2010. The countrys oil use in 2011
28、 was up by 0.6% y-o-y to average 4.5 mb/d and growth isexpected to be more this year at around 2%. However, this growth could go lower if the country is able to bringsome of its nuclear power plants back online within the current year.The natural disaster in Japan also damaged some refineries and ca
29、used throughputs to fall below 66%during 2Q11. However, most of the refineries have been back on line since July, except for Cosmo-Chiba,with a capacity of 220 tb/d, and JX-Sendai with a capacity of 145 tb/d. Japan has compensated for this lossby boosting runs elsewhere. However, as economic activit
30、ies have been severely affected, the demand forsome products has been low for most of last year. As a result, overall refinery utilization has not beendramatically increased, even in the northern part of the country, where demand for kerosene during theheating season has been met with higher imports
31、 in 4Q11. Refinery utilization currently stands at around80%, the same level as in the period prior to the disaster.Last year, Japan experienced a negative trade balance for the first time in 32 years. This has been mainlydue to three factors: the decline in manufacturing exports due to the disaster
32、; the strengthening of the yen tomulti-year highs against the US dollar and euro; and higher bills for energy imports due to the disruption innuclear power generation. Looking ahead, the direction Japan takes in solving its nuclear dilemma, alongwith the effectiveness of efforts to stimulate domesti
33、c consumption and combat the strong yen whilepromoting exports, will have an important impact, not only on the outlook of the worlds third largesteconomy, but also the global economic recovery as well.March 2012,4,Monthly Oil Market Report_,March 2012,5,_Monthly Oil Market ReportCrude Oil Price Move
34、mentsOPEC Reference Basket,OPEC ReferenceBasket settled at aten-month high,The OPEC Reference Basket continued to move higher in February to settle at$117.48/b, the highest monthly average since April of last year. The upward trend inthe Basket price, which began two months ago, was supported by a w
35、ideninggeopolitical risk premium amid fears of supply disruptions inflated by a surge ofspeculative activities in the crude oil future markets. Bullish US economic data and thepositive outcome of the Greek financial bailout were also supportive all throughout themonth. The increase comes despite con
36、cerns over the impact of high oil prices on oildemand, weak economic data out of Europe, repeated downward revisions in global oildemand growth and the start of a seasonally weaker second quarter.On a monthly basis, the OPEC Reference Basket improved significantly to average$117.48/b in February, ca
37、pturing a hefty increase of $5.72 or 5.1% above the previousmonth. Year-to-date, the Basket averaged $114.62/b compared to last years averageof $96.56/b for the same period, an increase of $20.92 or 22%.Graph 1.1: Crude oil price movement, 2011-2012,US$/b130120110100908070,US$/b130120110100908070,OP
38、EC Basket,WTI,Brent Dated,All Basket components increased in the month of February. Brent-related grades showedsignificant gains as they improved by over 8% during the month, the largest month-to-month percentage gain since the 9% reached in April 2011. On average, Saharan Blend,Es Sider and Bonny L
39、ight increased by a hefty $9 to $120.99/b, compared to the$126.07/b of April 2011. Middle Eastern crudes Murban, Arab Light and Qatar Marinemoved up to $118.10/b, higher by $5.94/b or more than 5%. On the other hand, EcuadorsOriente showed a significant increase of $8.30/b or 8%, translating into a
40、monthly averageof $112.44/b. Moreover, Girassol, Basrah Light, Kuwait Export and Iran Heavy improvedby $7.50, $6.00, $4.80 and $4.75, respectively. Contrary to the previous month,Venezuelan Merey showed the least increase, affected by developments in the fuel oilmarket, which went from roaring along
41、 a month ago to near collapse. Merey increased byonly $1.47/b or 1.4% over the month.The improvement in North/East African crudes was supported by Dated Brent as itoutperformed other regional crude oil benchmarks amid widespread geopoliticalconcerns surrounding the European markets. Turbulence in No
42、rth Sea crude oil outputand a small increase in arbitrage cargoes to Asia and North America also supportedDated Brent, despite falling refining margins and an ongoing weak economicenvironment in the region. At the same time, even with the strong decline in the fuel oilcrack over the month amid recor
43、d inflows from the West that placed the sour market inAsia under strong pressure, Middle Eastern Basket components managed to achievesizable gains over the month. Toward the end of the month, sour crude marketsentiment improved, as seen by the widening backwardation of the Dubai market, asrefiners w
44、rap up seasonal turnarounds.March 2012,6,Monthly Oil Market Report_In March, the OPEC Reference Basket remained strong, averaging above $120/b, tosettle at $124.13/b on 8 March.Table 1.1: OPEC Reference Basket and selected crudes, US$/b,Change,Year-to-date,Jan 12,Feb 12,Feb/Jan,2011,2012,OPEC Refere
45、nce BasketArab LightBasrah LightBonny LightEs SiderGirassolIran HeavyKuwait ExportMarineMereyMurbanOrienteSaharan Blend,111.76112.82110.21113.08111.28113.01111.77112.00110.65107.77113.03104.11111.43,117.48118.01116.21122.36120.26120.51116.51116.79116.99109.26119.31112.44120.36,5.725.196.009.288.987.504.744.796.341.496.288.338.93,96.4797.3195.83101.7999.72100.2095.6795.0196.3483.7198.8087.41101.17,114.62115.41113.21117.72115.77116.76114.14114.39113.82108.52116.17108.28115.89,
