1、全球资产膨胀与资产评估业的挑战Global Asset Inflation and Challenge for The Valuation Profession,殷剑峰 Yin Jianfeng 中国社科院金融所，所长助理 IFB of CASS, Assistant General Director,危机前的全球资产膨胀Global Asset Inflation Before Crisis,在这次全球危机前，主要经济体金融资产膨胀的速度远快于GDP增长率 Before the global crisis we are in, financial assets in major develo
2、ped countries grows at a striking higher speed than the GDP growth.,Financial Asset/GDP,金融发展越来越来脱离实体经济Financial Development Is Deviating from What Real Economy Really Needs,以美国为例，在各类金融工具（不含衍生品）中，为金融活动服务的比重不断上升，危机前已经达到了50。 For instance, in total amount of financial products (excluding derivatives) of
3、 U.S., the ratio of products offering service for the financial industry increases quickly and reaches to 50% before crisis.,Shares of financial products with different functions in total amount,金融资产膨胀：房地产泡沫Asset Inflation: Housing Market Bubble,以美国居民资产结构为例，随着房价攀升，从2000年开始，有形资产增长快于金融资产，其占比在2005年达到了近
4、40。 Because of housing price bubble, the ratio of tangible asset to total assets of U.S. household increases from 30% in 2000 to 40% in 2005.,金融资产膨胀：金融股泡沫Asset Inflation: Financial Stock Bubble,受房地产市场的推动，美国金融股票的市值与非金融股票市值的比重从2001年的15上升到2006年的45。 Housing bubble contributes significant proceeds to U.S
5、. financial corporations and boosts their stock prices. The ratio of market value of financial corporations to non-financial ones increases from 15% in 2001 to 45% in 2006.,金融资产膨胀：证券化泡沫Asset Inflation: Securitization Bubble,美国 “私营”证券资产占比由80年代的0上升到2007年的12，资产总额达到了4万5千亿美元。 In U.S, non-GSE securitizati
6、on develops quickly since 1980s, and amounts to 12% of total securitization market in 2007.,金融资产膨胀促成了美国居民的消费热潮Asset Inflation Promotes Consumption Boom in U.S. Household Sector.,美国居民部门的储蓄率从80年代初的10左右持续下降到2006年的接近0；同时，储蓄额也从90年代的3500亿美元持续，在有些季度甚至是负储蓄。 Saving rate of U.S. household decreased to nearly
7、zero in 2006.,金融资产膨胀刺激了银行消费信贷Asset Inflation Stimulates Bank Loan to Household.,对居民的贷款和对居民的住宅按揭贷款占美国银行全部贷款的比重上升到2006年的67和55。 In total U.S. bank loan, the ratio of household loan and mortgage increased to 67% and 55% in 2006.,经济增长,储蓄率下降 消费率提高,资产价格 上涨,全球 经济增长,美元需求 增加,信贷便利性 （美元创造）,财富效应,金融机构 资产负债表 改善,以美
8、国为中心的世界经济增长模式 Global Economic Growth Model,关于资产膨胀和危机的认识Conclusions about Asset Inflation and Crisis,美联储反周期的货币政策 Anti-Business Cycle style of Monetary Policy of FED 自由放任的金融监管政策 Laissez-Faire Financial Regulation System 评级机构的责任：模型风险、道德风险 The Problems of Rating Agency: Model Risk, Moral Risk,共舞的中国股市和房市
9、In China, Real Estate Market Is Dancing with Stock Market as well.,自2003年以来，中国的房屋销售价格、土地交易价格与股市市盈率的变化高度相关。 In China, housing price and land price has a high correlation with PE ratio of stock market since 2003.,中国似乎也正在经历资产膨胀的过程China Is Undergoing an Underlying Process of Asset Inflation and Possible
10、 Asset Bubble.,如果假设2002年底中国住房和土地的收益率为10，那么，今天则分别只有1.9和4.5。 If we assume the returns in housing and land market are 10% at the end of 2002, then they are only 1.9 and 4.5 separately today.,唯一的区别：中国的高储蓄率The Only Difference: Higher Saving Rate in China Comparing with U.S.,政策建议Suggestions,关于宏观经济政策的建议：既要稳定，又不要泡沫。 Suggestion for Macro-Policy Authority: Stabilization but no Bubble. 关于资产评估行业的建议：不要成为资产膨胀的加速器 Suggestion for Valuation Industry: Dont Become the Accelerator for Asset Inflation.,谢谢！ Thanks!,
