1、Prospects and Challenges of Global and Chinas Food Economy,Jikun HuangCenter for Chinese Agricultural Policy (CCAP)Chinese Academy of Sciences,Outline,Global food and agricultureChinas food and agricultureConcluding remarks,United Nations projected: Global population will rise from 6.4 billion in 20
2、05 to 9 billion in 2050, of which 2.3 billion (or 90% increase) will come from the developing countries.,Per capita meat consumptionkg per person per year, 2000, 2000-2050,Source: IFPRI (2008),Cereal demand (million mt) by region 2000, 2025 and 2050,Source: IFPRI (2008),New (non-traditional) demand,
3、Multifunctional agricultureBiofuels,World Production of Biofuels,Source: IEA analysis based on F.O.Lichts IEA World Energy Outlook 2006,International Prices for Some Selected Commodities (price of January 2005=100, measured by US$),Sources of international food price changes during global food crisi
4、s in 2006-2008,Source: Yang, Qiu, Huang, Rozelle (2008),Major driving sources of global food crisis in 2006-2008:Oil priceBiofuelsSpeculation and export bans After mid-2008, all these disappeared due to global financial crisis!,Source: Yang, Qiu, Huang, Rozelle (2008),Price indices (January 2005 = 1
5、00) of rice, wheat, maize, soybeans, and pork in international markets, January 2005 to December 2009.,Current and Projected Total Biofuels (bioethanol and biodiesel) Production in the Next 30 Years.,Source: Msangi, et al., 2007,?,Biofuel era ?,Businessas usual,It is possible that we are in the midd
6、le of a fundamental watershed perhaps the greatest since the “invention” of genetics but, while genetics allowed for the rapid rise in supply ( falling prices) this new technology affect the demand side (and since food becomes tied to energy if energy prices rise this means food prices will rise,Bio
7、fuels is a fundamentally different technology it affects the demand side,Real cereal price index (All prices = 100 in 1960),Climate Changes: Temperature,In past 100 years: +0.74In next 100 years: +1.1 +6.4; China: +3.9 +6.0,Precipitation rises likely in high latitudes and falls likely in subtropical
8、 regions,Source: IPCC 2007,Change of precipitation will influence water supply and water demand,Agriculture is most vulnerable to climate change. There are both direct and indirect impacts Most studies focus on direct impacts assessment,Climate Change,Water(Runoff/supply of SW and GW/demand),Agricul
9、ture(Crop yield/disease/areas/trade/price),Direct impacts,Direct impacts,Little work deals with indirect impacts,Prospects: global new trends,Rising demand:Food + Feed + Fiber + FuelsRising price:Fall riseRising uncertain:More risk,Global challenges,Meet food and fiber demand of 9 billion population
10、;Meet demand for biofuels: trade-off of 4 Fs;Water scarcity, land and forestry deterioration;Climate change;Falling growth rate of agricultural productivity,Annual growth of cereal yield in developing countries,Source: World Development Report 2008,Prospects of Chinas food and agricultural sector,Pe
11、r capita food consumption in 2004-2050: Crops (kg/person),Huang et al., 2008,Per capita food consumption in 2004-2050: animal (kg/person),Huang et al., 2008,Questions,Can China meet its growing demand in the future?What are policy implicationsTo answer these questions, lets first look at what China
12、has experienced in the past,Population in 1978-2008: Increased 38%, nearly 500 millions!,Calories per capita per day (gram),Source: FAOSTAT,Protein per capita per day (gram),Fat per capita per day (gram),Grain and cotton production,Grain (million tons),Cotton (1000 tons),Production of oil and sugar
13、crops,Oil crops (1000 tons),Sugar crops (million tons),Vegetables and fruits,Vegetable area (1000 ha),Fruit outputs (million tons),Shares of output values within agricultural sector, 1980-2005, (%),Livestock and fishery have grown even faster,Agricultural export and import (billion US$)1983-2009,Chi
14、na has been a net food exporter in most years in the past 3 decades,Rural poverty incidence in China, 1978-2007,Under official poverty line,Under $1/day in PPP,(Percent of Population),The fall in the poverty rates in China account for MOST of the entire worlds fall in poverty between 1985 and 2005,Q
15、uestion: What are major driving forces of Chinas agricultural growth and poverty alleviation in the past? Previous studies have shown that institutional reform, market reform AND technology change are three major driving forces,Total Factor Productivity for rice, wheat and maize in China, 1979-94,Ri
16、ce,Wheat,Maize,Institutional change (HRS) was major source of TFP growth in 1979-84,Source: Jin, Huang, Hu and Rozelle. 2002, AJAE,But after middle 1980s, technologyhas been major factor affectingproductivity growth,Output, Input, and TFP annual growth rate and Decomposition of TFP Main Grain and Co
17、tton (1995-2004),Source: Jin, Huang and Rozelle. 2009, Choice,Output, Input, and TFP annual growth rate and Decomposition of TFP Vegetables and Oranges (1995-2004),Source: Jin, Huang and Rozelle. 2009, Choice,Output, Input, and TFP annual growth rate, and Decomposition of TFP Livestock and Diary Pro
18、ducts (1995-2004),Source: Jin, Huang and Rozelle. 2009, Choice,Agricultural research investment intensity (%) in China,Government fiscal investment in agricultural research(billion yuan in 2005 price),Since 2000, the rise in research investment has been higher in China than most countries in the wor
19、ld ,Investment in agri biotech research had been doubled in every 4 years before mid-2000s,Huang et al., Science, 29 April 2005: 688-690,(million yuan in 2003 price),2003: 1.65 billion yuan = US$ 200 million or US$ 950 million in PPP,National Transgenic New Variety Development Program:26 bil. yuan (
20、US$ 3.8 bil.) in 2009-2020,Commercialized GM plants in China,Cotton1997Petunia 1997Tomato1998Sweet pepper 1998Poplar trees2005 Papaya2006Bt rice2009Phytaes maize2009,Numbers of pesticide applications in Bt and non-Bt cotton in Hebei and Shandong in 1999,In 1999: reduced by 13 applicationsIn 2000: re
21、duced by 12 applications In 2001: reduced by 14 applicationsIn 2004: reduced by 12 applications In 2006: reduced by 10 applications,Huang et al., 2005, Science; Pray et al., 2002, PJ; Huang et al. 2010, Science China,Major findings on Bt cotton impacts in 1999-2001 (By empirical study， per hectare),
22、Increase yield: 9.6%930 yuan Reduce pesticide use:34 kg923 yuan Reduce labor input:41days574 yuanIncrease seed cost:570 yuanIncrease net income: 1857 yuan,Sources: Huang et al., Science, 29 Jan 2002: 674-677,214 households, 584 plots,Hubei: 2002-2004,Fujian: 2002-2004,Data: GM rice surveys in the fi
23、elds of farmers during pre-production trials,GM Rice in Farmer Fields,Huang et al., Science, 29 April 2005: 688-690,Huang et al., 2005, Science,Major findings in 2002-2003:Pesticide: - 80%Yield : + 6%Labor : - 5.5%Net income: 745 yuan /ha,Future prospects,Population growth rate will decline signific
24、antly in the coming decades,Source: UN, 2005,Income elasticities of demand for various foods in rural and urban in 2006, China (Source: CAPSiM, CCAP),Driving forces of demand for agri/food,Population growth (+ + )impact has been weakeningUrbanization (+-/+)negative impact for food grain and positive
25、 for others Income growth (+ -/+)impact has been strong but will be weakeningNew driving forces: biofuels,Weakening demand for food grainRising demand for meat and other high value products,Major sources of growth in agricultural production,PastCurrent FutureInstitutional reform:+ + +Technology:+ +
26、+Market reform:+ + +New driving forces: - Land:+ 0- - Water:+ 0- - Income support (% AgGDP)-8% +3%?,Agricultural subsidies (100 million yuan),3.6% of agricultural GDP in 2009,Prospects of commodity marketMethodologies,GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Program)Considering major driving forces of:Demand: Po
27、pulation: UNs projectionGDP growth in China:7-9% in 2006-20156-7% in 2016-2020.Supply:Technology: follow recent trendIrrigation: follow recent trend,Chinas net export of cereals (billion USD) under baseline in 2001-2020,Chinas import and export of major cash crops (billion USD) under baseline in 200
28、1-2020,Import,Export,Chinas import and export of animal products (billion USD), baseline in 2001-2020,Import,Export,Chinas net export of food, feed and fiber (billion USD) under baseline in 2001-2020,Prospects: China,Rising demand:Meat, feed; high-value cropsChange structure:More high-value products
29、Rising import:Land-intensive products Rising export:Lab/capital-intensive productsAgri. Technology:Primary source of growthRising uncertain:More risk ,Concluding remarks (1),Demand for 4 Fs (food, feed, fiber and fuels) will rise;Demand for multifunction agricultural services will rise; New driving
30、forces of demand (e.g., biofuels) will significantly affect global and Chinas food economy;Increased production will have to come from less use of natural resources;Food price will rise;Uncertainty and risk of agricultural production and market will rise;,Concluding remarks (2),In the future, China
31、is expected to increase import of land intensive products (e.g., feeds, cotton, edible oils, sugar, dairy, etc), but China will also continue to be a major exporter of labor & capital intensive products (e.g., vegetable, fruits, some livestock products, fishery, and processed foods).,Concluding rema
32、rks (3),For both global and Chinas food economy, the traditional efforts (policies) should be strengthened: 4 IsInstitutional changeIncentive improvementInvestment in technologyInvestment in infrastructure and market,Concluding remarks (4),New efforts (policies) should be initiated: 4 IsInnovated gl
33、obal and regional institutions to foster food securityInnovated technologies to boost agricultural productivity - If China wants to improve its food security in the future, technology will be essentialInnovated ways to reduce risk and vulnerability in agricultureInvestment more in agricultural resources (land and water),
