1、Strategies and China-Japan Cooperation for Low-carbon Cities,Yoshitsugu HayashiDirector, International Research Center for Sustainable Transport and Cities, Nagoya University, JapanChair, Scientific Committee of WCTRS(World Conference on Transport Research Society),1,High Level Forum on Green develo
2、pment and Science & Technology Innovation(18-19 November 2010, Beijing Hotel),1. Low-Carbon Transport and Cities: Urbanization - Motorization nexus,Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University,Lack of PublicTransport,Lack of Road,Modal Shift to Car,Average IncomeIncrement,Urbanization,Longer Trips,Bottlene
3、ckfor Development,Local/GlobalProblems,Emission Rate,CO,NOX,PM,; CO2,Excess Car Demand,Higher Costof InfrastructureSupply,Sprawl of Built-up Area,Higher EnergyConsumption,ENVIRONMENT,ECONOMY,Congestion,EconomicGrowth,HigherCar-Ownership,Motorization and urbanization may threaten economy and environm
4、ent,Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University,School boy waiting for bus at 4:30 am in Suburb of Bangkok,Bangkok Post 4 Sept 1993,Failure of Urban Transport System,Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University,Photo by Hayashi(1993),Slower than walkers in Sukunvit Rd, Bangkok,Failure of Urban Transport System,Y
5、oshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University,Failure of Urban Transport System,Traffic Jam in Beijing (Changan Jie),Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University,Failure of Urban Transport SystemCar Ownership,GDP per Capita US$ (1995),Cars per 1,000 inhabitants,London,Tokyo,Bangkok,Seoul,Hong kong,Singapore (CA),95
6、,95,90,90,90,95,00,85,85,80,80,95,95,00,70,60,Nagoya,Shanghai,95,02,Beijing,Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University,Passenger car per 1000 persons,Length of road per car (m / passenger car),London,1970,1980,1990,Failure of Urban Transport SystemCar Ownership & Road Supply,Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya Un
7、iversity,Greater London,Tokyo,Nagoya,Bangkok Met. Area,Energy consumption,Sectional volume,Consumption Rate,Speed,18.7,15.8,21.8,10.0,0.11,0.13,0.1,0.17,36,30,29,54,196,160,120,627,20,40,60,0.2,0.4,0.6,20,40,60,400,600,(km/hr),(litre/km),(000/12hr),(*TOE/km),Failure of Urban Transport SystemMotoriza
8、tion & Road Supply,Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University,London,Tokyo,Nagoya,Bangkok,0,50km,191019651985,Change in Built-up Areas,Changes in Built-up Areas,Urban Sprawl,Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University,Population Density (1988),Urban Sprawl,Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University,2. What will hap
9、pen the next?,Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University,Billion Vehicles,Increasing Use of Automobile IEA Vehicle Ownership Projections -Where Will These Cars Fit?-,1,18,Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University,Increasing Use of AutomobileAutomobile Production in the world (2005, 2007, 2009),Unit: 10,000,S
10、ource: Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, Inc.,Increasing Cars with Poor Infrastructure in Asian Developing Countries,Skyrocketing Increase in Car Ownership (20 times in 2050)Less Power to Self-finance Railways in Mega-citiesIncreasing Mega-cities (50 or more in 2050) without Railway System
11、sCatastrophic Congestion like 90s BangkokUnacceptable Increase in CO2 from Urban Transport,15,Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University,3. Strategies for Solution and the Policy/Technological Instruments,Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University,Monorail,(under 20km/h),(over 20km/h),Population density in DI
12、D person/km2,(under 20km/h),(over 20km/h),System Life Cycle CO2 g-CO2/passenger-km,Railway(running only),Railway(Life cycle),Bus(running only),Passenger car(running only),Innovation of Transport SystemWhich Mode is Optimal ?- Life Cycle CO2 /Trip Density -,Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University,Trans
13、port Strategy - Techno/Policy Instruments,CUTE Matrix,18,Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University,Innovation of Transport SystemCUTE Matrix,LEV subsidyLEV preferential tax,Innovation: Japan Greening Taxation,Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University,Top Runner Program with vehicles,List of the Specified 21
14、 Appliances,at the time of standards establishment,Target year,19km/L,18km/L,17km/L,15km/L,15km/L,14km/L,13km/L,12km/L,16,Fuel Efficiency (km/L),target value,Weighted average value for each product category,Innovation of Transport SystemThe “Top Runner” program: Efficiency improvement(Ministry of Ec
15、onomy, Trade and Industry),Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University,Innovation of Transport SystemCUTE Matrix,Emission StandardTop Runner Program,Innovation: Japan Top Runner Program,Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University,Fueleconomykm/l,Observed,Estimation,Sales base,Real running,EV,HV,NGV,LPG,Methanol
16、,Ownership base,Greening taxation,Greening taxation,Methanol-fueled vehicle,LPG-fueled vehicle,Natural gas vehicle,Hybrid vehicle,Electrical vehicle,Year,No. of vehicles,Top RunnerProgram,Top RunnerProgram,Innovation of Transport SystemEffects of Tax and Subsidy Policies,Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya U
17、niversity,Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University,Year & Month,Domestic sales of new cars (Toyota, prius),Subsidy start,Innovation of Transport SystemEffect of Subsidy for Low Emission Cars,Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University,4. Levels of Railway Development,Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University,Whi
18、ch is more priority, Rail or Road ?,Hayashis Chart for Optimal Rail-Road Balance,27,Extent of inner-city road congestion due to unseamless rail transport,(Tokyo) (Seoul) (Shanghai) Territory: 621 vs. 606 vs. 600 km2 Population: 8.3 vs. 9.9 vs. 1.0 million Subway: 286 vs. 280 vs. 420 kmRoad Congestio
19、n in inner areas: Tokyo Re-concentration into areas with higher QOL,Retreat,To be evacuated area,42,EA-RTM 2009 Nagoya/ Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University,Retreat according to QOL/CO2,43,CO2 Emissiont-CO2/year/person,- 0.59,- 0.72,- 0.81,- 0.91,- 1.21,0,20,40,60,80,Retreat Areas,0,40,Scenario 80,
20、Disappearing of high density areas in scenario 0現状対、40低密度帯喪失Extremely high density in scenario 802050年郊外部撤退完了,44,Population Density in 2050in different Scenarios,施策実施伴年間移転人口,名古屋市内転入者数約8万人,45,住宅建設伴CO2排出影響,間住宅着工量自体差異小戸建集合比変化影響CO2排出量増加,13%増,7%増,3%増,1%増,人年間CO2排出量,人累積CO2排出（20102050年）,46,民生活動伴CO2排出影響,縮小伴C
21、O2削減分小、間差異小化、住宅床小効果小，都市構造影響受,1.6%減,1.4%減,0.9%減,0.4%減,人年間CO2排出量,人累積CO2排出（20102050年）,47,交通活動伴CO2排出影響,人年間CO2排出量,人累積CO2排出（20102050年）,11%減,7%減,4%減,1%減,自動車分担率低下伴CO2削減分累積11,48,21%減,環境負荷総合,人年間CO2排出量推移,人累積CO2排出（20102050年）,5%減,3%減,2%減,1%減,-12%,49,市街地維持費用影響,25%減,20%減,5%減,2%減,-37%,環境負荷比都心郊外格差大市街地集約伴削減幅大,人維持費用推移
22、,人累積維持費用（20102050年）,50,性別世代別平均QOL影響,施策実施2050年人口分布変化QOL平均値変化分析,51,805程度改善女性60代70代QOL改善都心部他比高評価（就業施設文化施設性重小）男性高齢世代改善率大，QOL関数内水害重大大地区撤退行,改善,8. Recommendations for China-Japan Cooperation,Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University,Good Practices to be Transferred from Japan to China,Spatial PlanningTOD: Tran
23、sit(railway) Oriented DevelopmentValue capture system by private railway companiesCompetition Driven - Market Oriented Promotion of Low CarbonizationTop Runner SystemPreferential Tax for Low Carbon CarsCertificate system: CASBEE-Building, CASBEE-CityLow Energy Electrical Instruments (originally come
24、 from Oil Crisis)Natioanal-Local Government Cooperative MovementLife Cycle Assessment3R (Reduce, Reuse, Recycle)Eco-Model City supported by CASBEE,Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University,Good Practices to be Transferred from China to Japan,Electric VehiclesE-bike (Extension of Bicycle)E-CarStrong Leadership of Local GovernmentCompact City and Compact DevelopmentWell organized development of high rise apartment quarter (Street block)National- Local Government Cooperative MovementEco-city, Eco-islandLow-carbon + Biodiversity Park and City,Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University,
