1、Effects of urbanisation on energy consumption in ChinaQiang Wanga,b,c,naInstitute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 10010, ChinabCollege of Geographical Sciences, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007, ChinacGraduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beij
2、ing 100049, ChinaHIGHLIGHTSC15Urbanisation slows per capita REC growth when compared with rural areas.C15Urbanisation has a greater promotional effect on REC growth and a stronger improved effect on energy structure than do rural areas.C15The economic growth effect of urbanisation is responsible for
3、 the majority of PEC growth.C15Technological advancement in conjunction with urbanisation has an adverse effect on the increase in PEC.C15The structural effect of the energy supply on the urbanisation process has increased rather than decreased Chinas PEC.C15There is no signicant evidence that indus
4、trial structure adjustment in the urbanisation process affects PEC.article infoArticle history:Received 9 July 2013Received in revised form24 September 2013Accepted 1 October 2013Available online 5 November 2013Keywords:Energy consumptionEffects of urbanisationChinaabstractAs a key issue in Chinas e
5、conomic development, urbanisation creates increasing pressure on energysupply and the natural environment. Thus, a better understanding of the relationship betweenurbanisation and energy consumption is necessary for Chinese decision makers at various levels toaddress energy security and sustainable
6、economic and social development. This paper empiricallyinvestigates the effects of Chinas urbanisation on residential energy consumption (REC) and productionenergy consumption (PEC) through a time-series analysis. The results show that compared with ruralareas, urbanisation slows per capita REC grow
7、th because of the economy of scale and technologicaladvantages associated with urbanisation but has greater promotional effects on the growth of REC andthe improvement of REC structure. The economic growth caused by urbanisation most signicantlycontributes to an increase in PEC, whereas technologica
8、l advancement was found to reduce the scale ofPEC (except from 2001 to 2005). Finally, the structural effect of the energy supply increased rather thandecreased Chinas PEC, and the effect of industrial structure adjustment on PEC was found to beinsignicant.Liu 2009a,b)and, in turn, produce energy cr
9、ises. Since the early 1990s, therehas been a tremendous increase in energy demand spurredby industrial development and population growth, resulting in agreater thirst for the worlds energy supply as the national supplydemand gap becomes wider. As a result, Chinas dependence onforeign energy supplies
10、 is growing; the demand for oil increased59.18% in 2010, when crude oil production and importationreached 203.01 and 294.37 million tons coal equivalent (Mtce),respectively. It is estimated that Chinas dependence on foreign oilwill soar to 60% by 2020 (Cui, Huo, 2009). Such a high degree ofdependenc
11、e poses a tremendous energy challenge with regard tothe growing urban energy demand. Therefore, the relationshipbetween energy consumption and supply is a key issue in terms ofsustainable urbanisation in the country.Contents lists available at ScienceDirectjournal homepage: Policy0301-4215/$-see fr
12、ont matter Atis the row vector ofoutput ratios of industry, construction and services to GDP in yeart; and A0is the row vector in the initial year. Btis the columnvector of coal consumption per unit output value of industry,construction and services and B0is the column vector in the initialyear. Pti
13、s the row vector of the ratios of total PEC to coalconsumption in the industry, construction and services sectorsand P0is the row vector in the initial year. Ytis the GDP in year tand Y0is the GDP in the initial year. Eq. 1 can be written as follows:EtotAtBtYtPtC0A0B0Y0P0AtC0A0B0YtPtAtBtC0B0YtPtA0B0
14、YtC0Y0PtA0B0Y0PtC0P02Combining Eqs. 1 and 2 yields the following expression:Etot0:5AtC0A0B0BtYtPt0:5AtA0BtC0B0YtPtA0B0PtYtC0Y0A0B0Y0PtC0P03where 0.5(A0 At) is the average value of the output ratio ofindustry, construction and services to GDP in year t and the initialyear. Thus, 0.5(At A0)(BtC0 B0)Yt
15、Ptindicates that the change incoal consumption per unit output of industry, construction andservices in the urbanisation process is affected by technologicaladvancement, that is, the technological advancement effect (Etec);Q. Wang / Energy Policy 65 (2014) 3323393340.5(B0 Bt) is the average value of
16、 coal consumption per unitoutput of industry, construction and services inyear t and the initialyear; and 0.5(AtC0 A0)(Bt B0)YtPtindicates that changes in energyconsumption are affected by the industrial structure transfer, that is,the industrial structure effect (Eind). YtC0 Y0is the change in GDPa
17、nd A0B0Pt(YtC0 Y0) indicates the change in energy consumption,which is affected by economic growth, that is, the economic growtheffect (Eeco). PtC0 P0is the change in ratio of total energyconsumption to coal, and A0B0Y0(PtC0 P0) is the change in energyconsumption, which is affected by improvements t
18、o the energysupply mix, that is, the energy supplys structural effect (Estr).Therefore, Eq. 3 is written as follows:EtotEtecEindEecoEstr43.4. Effects of urbanisation on RECThe effects of urbanisation on REC are reected in threemeasures: REC per capita, total REC and REC structure. Over thepast 30 ye
19、ars, the urban population has tripled, from 191.40million to 690.79 million. Therefore, it is important to understandhow REC patterns are affected by the transition from a rural to anurban economy. Thus, we conducted a comparative analysis of RECbetween urban and rural areas.As shown in Fig. 4, the
20、urban REC curve can be divided into twophases: a slow-growth phase from 1980 to 2001 and a rapid-growthphase between 2002 and 2011. The urban REC slowly increased from63.51 to 99.64 Mtce, with an annual growth rate of 2% in the period19802001. Then, the urban REC jumped from 105.43 Mtce in 2002 to22
21、5.89 Mtce in 2011 and the annual growth rate increased fourfold to9%.Affected by urbanisation, changes in the REC per capita alsoexhibited two distinct stages (as shown in Fig. 5). Urban RECdecreased from 332 kg coal equivalent (Kgce) to 207 Kgce between1980 and 2001 and then increased from 210 to 3
22、27 Kgce between2002 and 2011.Because of the lack of REC structure data, the period 19912011was chosen. We found that there was a noteworthy improvementin the urban REC structure, as presented in Fig. 6. The share of coalin urban REC decreased from 82.66% in 1991 to 8.03% in 2011,whereas the share of
23、 petroleum increased from 5.06% in 1991 to28.91% in 2011, becoming the fastest growing energy resource. Theshare of electricity use also increased along with the growingpopularity of electrical appliances. Additionally, the share ofnatural gas increased from 3.06% to 22.49% during the studyperiod, w
24、hich reected an improvement in urban daily lives andthe increased environmental consciousness of urban residents.Comparing the RECs of urban and rural areas led to the followingndings: (1) The gap between the total REC for urban and ruralareas narrowed and then widened (as shown in Fig. 4). During t
25、heperiod 19801995, the urbanrural ratio of REC fell from 1.33 to 1.16Fig. 2. Conceptual framework of the links between urbanization and energy consumption.01020304050607080901001980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010Production energy consumption Residential energy consumptionPercent,
26、% Fig. 3. Changes of shares of REC and PEC in urban areas.0.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.401.601.800501001502002501980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010Residential energy consumption in urbanResidential energy consumption in ruralRation of urban to ruralResidential energy consumption,
27、 Mtce Ratio of urban areas to rural areas REC Fig. 4. Changes of REC in urban and rural areas.Q. Wang / Energy Policy 65 (2014) 332339 335and then increased from 1.48 to 1.51 between 1996 and 2011. Fromthe instant of increase, urbanisation is shown to have had a positiveeffect on REC growth. (2) The
28、 gap in REC per capita between urbanand rural areas also gradually narrowed (as shown in Fig. 5). Theurbanrural ratio decreased from 5.51 in 1980 to 1.43 in 2011, whichindicates that urbanisation had a relatively smaller promotionaleffect on REC per capita growth because of its economy of scale andt
29、echnological advantages. (3) According to Figs. 6 and 7, residentialenergy supply sources were more diverse and cleaner in urbanareas than in rural areas. For example, the share of coal usedecreased to o10% in urban areas, leading to a substantial changein the energy consumption mix, whereas it rema
30、ined above 50% inrural areas. More advanced energy resources were available tourban households than to rural households (Cai and Jiang 2008).Household income and living habits have a greater effect on theenergy requirements of urban residents than rural residents. Thelifestyle of urban residents req
31、uires more energy for automobiles,refrigeration, air conditioning and other appliances, which are themain reasons for the difference in REC between urban and ruralareas. For example, a preference for automobiles for daily travel inurban areas has resulted in an increase in petroleum use. The dataon
32、cars per 100 urban households show solid growth in petroleumconsumption in recent decades. Since the early 2000s, automobileownership has experienced explosive growth, from 0.5 cars per 100urban households in 2000 to 13.07 cars per 100 urban householdsin 2010. Rural residents lag behind their urban
33、counterparts in carownership (Fig. 8). Concerning national energy security, the envir-onment and sustainable energy development, the structure ofurban REC consumption exhibits diverse characteristics. Energyconsumption has shifted from being predominantly coal- based toa multitier structure composed
34、 of petroleum, electricity, coal, gasand heat. Since 1991, the share of coal consumption decreased from82.66% to 8.06%, whereas, in 2011, the use of petroleum, electricityand gas energy sources increased 5.71 times, 5.06 times and 7.35times, respectively, compared to the energy consumption structure
35、in 1991 (Fig. 6). According to a survey by Hu (2012), gas consump-tion for cooking accounted for 45.2% of the total energy consump-tion for cooking in urban areas and only 7.6% in rural areas. Inaddition, 24.8% of households used electric appliances for cooking,whereas rural residents primarily used
36、 coal stoves.01234560501001502002503003501980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010Urban Rural Ratio of urban to rural Residential energy consumption per capita, Kgce Ratio of urban areas to rural areas REC Fig. 5. Changes in energy consumption per capita in urban and rural areas.0%10%20
37、%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011Electricity Heat Natrual Gas Petroleum CoalPercentageFig. 6. Changes of REC structure in urban areas.0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011Electricity Heat Natrual Gas Pet
38、roleum CoalPercentageFig. 7. Changes of REC structure in rural areas.024681012141997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Cars per 100 urban households Cars per 100 rurual householdsCars Fig. 8. Cars per 100 households in urban and rural areas.Table 2Decomposition of energ
39、y consumption growth in China (19802011) (Mtce).Period EtotEindEtecEecoEstr19801981 C01,524.00 C01,528.48 C02,143.82 2,561.11 C0412.8119811982 1,608.00 C01,030.83 C0311.98 4,209.40 C01,258.5919821983 3,243.00 C0616.93 C02,026.18 5,407.26 478.8419831984 4,917.00 C0981.41 C01,045.54 7,844.02 C0900.071
40、9841985 5,859.60 C0128.87 C01,245.90 7,683.16 C0448.8019851986 3,903.00 561.04 C02,381.04 5,614.94 108.0619861987 5,042.70 C0706.28 C02,082.35 7,795.78 35.5419871988 5,154.00 648.27 C03,692.65 8,161.11 37.2719881989 3,887.30 C0269.12 811.99 3,155.18 189.2519891990 1,552.90 C02,357.60 1,044.29 3,113.
41、57 C0247.3619901991 5,405.86 1,122.55 C03,666.85 7,638.29 311.8819911992 5,738.44 2,179.94 C09,285.55 12,609.30 234.7419921993 6,827.16 3,228.72 C010,096.31 13,201.95 492.8119931994 6,448.36 518.97 C09,918.70 13,502.02 2,346.0819941995 8,107.48 1,195.85 C09,620.06 12,198.46 4,333.2419951996 5,803.57
42、 723.13 C012,237.41 12,077.41 5,240.4419961997 196.59 1,024.93 C017,981.60 11,771.54 5,381.7219971998 C03,609.74 C02,584.81 C03,057.69 8,968.79 C06,936.0219981999 795.86 C0408.49 C07,200.90 8,937.25 C0532.0019992000 3,970.89 931.61 C019,417.48 10,969.46 11,487.3020002001 4,043.33 C01,116.18 196.75 9
43、,775.70 C04,812.9420012002 7,638.29 C0663.08 C04,549.11 11,613.12 1,237.3620022003 20,854.89 2,476.38 4,884.84 13,464.01 29.6620032004 26,821.54 821.11 1,753.30 16,432.48 7,814.6620042005 28,745.55 3,406.75 5,960.90 20,456.20 C01,078.3020052006 20,219.27 1,850.31 2,992.92 25,433.46 C010,057.42200620
44、07 18,783.26 C02,369.91 C014,932.19 33,122.17 2,963.2020072008 9,855.58 C0509.87 C034,933.65 25,923.93 19,375.1720082009 13,254.44 C08,110.22 C0540.18 23,745.79 C01,840.9520092010 17,577.09 1,850.15 C026,397.76 29,788.57 12,336.1420102011 20,210.85 C0903.07 C018,634.50 28,089.71 11,658.71Q. Wang / E
45、nergy Policy 65 (2014) 3323393363.5. Effects of urbanisation on PECThe results of the decomposition analysis are shown in Table 2.The study period is divided into three stages to observe thedifferent effects of urbanisation on PEC in different stages. Theresults are shown in Table 3 and Fig. 9.(1) 1
46、9811990, stabilised increase stage. This stage is characterised bya moderate growth in PEC, increasing 3364.35 Mtce annually(Table 3). The economic growth effect was primarily responsiblefor promoting PEC growth, contributing 5554.55 Mtce annually(Fig. 9). Although the annual economic growth rate wa
47、s 9.34%, thecontribution to production was comparativelysmallerthanintheother stages because of the smaller economic volume. Theindustrial structure effect and technological advancement effectof urbanisation reduced the annual PEC by 641.02 and 1307.32 Mtce, respectively, whereas the structural effe
48、ct of energysupply promoted the growth of PEC at an annual rate of241.87 Mtce.(2) 19912000, uctuating increase stage. In this period, the rateof annual energy consumption varied. The average annualgrowth of PEC was 6505.46 Mtce (Table 3) from 1991 to1995, which was dramatically higher than in the 19
49、80s.However, between 1996 and 2000, the average growth ofPEC decreased to 1431.43 Mtce annually, which was signi-cantly lower than in the previous period. Subsequently, Chinaexperienced negative PEC growth, particularly in 1998. Key tothis phenomenon was Chinas Reform and Opening-up policy.In the rst decade of the policy, the countrys social produc-tivity and comprehensive national strength grew dramaticallyand market commodities became
