1、传染病传播模型综述张发1，2李璐2宣慧玉21.空军工程大学工程学院，西安710038;2.西安交通大学管理学院，西安7100491000-6788(2011)09-1736-09N949;R131A建立传染病传播模型是理解传染病流行机理，预测流行趋势，进行防控决策的基础.将传染病传播模型分为单一群体模型，复合群体模型和微观个体模型三类.单一群体模型从宏观角度刻画了集计量的变化，以经典的SIR为基础，在仓室设置、年龄结构、随机性、异质性等方面进行了扩展.复合群体模型将人群划分为多个子群体，子群体之间因人口流动而耦合，适合研究具有空间异质性的跨地区传播问题.微观个体模型的出发点是个体状态和行为，所
2、有个体形成接触网络.这类模型有理想网络和现实网络两个研究方向，理想网络关注接触网络特性对传染病传播动力学的影响，现实网络致力于揭示社会接触的实际特征，构建足够真实的模拟网络，研究传染病的传播.这三类模型各有特点，分别具有各自的适用领域，应根据研究目的和问题特点选择合适的建模方法.传染病模型；仓室；复合群体；接触网络；综述Survey of transmission models of infectious diseasesZHANG FaLI LuXUAN Hui-yu2010-01-14国家自然科学基金(70971106);中国博士后科学基金(20070421118)作者简介：张发(1970
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39、i-yu作者单位： 张发,ZHANG Fa(空军工程大学工程学院,西安710038;西安交通大学管理学院,西安710049)， 李璐,宣慧玉,LILu,XUAN Hui-yu(西安交通大学管理学院,西安,710049)刊名： 系统工程理论与实践英文刊名： Systems Engineering Theory Fraser C Mathematical models of infectious disease transmission 2008(06)2.Keeling M J;Rohani P Modeling Infectious Diseases in Humans and Animals
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44、192615.Isham V Stochastic Models for Epidemics 200516.Nasell Stochastic models of some endemic infections外文期刊 2002(01)17.Lajmanovich A;Yorke J A A deterministic model for gonorrhea in a nonhomogeneous population 1976(3/4)18.Gonzalez M C;Hidalgo C A;Barabsi A L Understanding individual human mobility
45、 patterns外文期刊 2008(7196)19.Grenfell B;Harwood J (Meta)population dynamics of infectious disease 1997(10)20.Hanski I Metapopulation theory,its use and misuse外文期刊 2004(03)21.Wang W;Mulone G Threshold of disease transmission in a patch environment外文期刊 2003(01)22.Castillo-Chavez C;Yakubu A A Dispersal,d
46、isease and life-history evolution外文期刊 2001(01)23.Cross P C;Johnson P L F;Lloyd-Smith J O Utility of R-0 as a predictor of disease invasion in structured populations2007(13)24.Colizza V;Vespignani A Epidemic modeling in metapopulation systems with heterogeneous coupling pattern:Theory andsimulations外
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