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第七讲(上-新)-住房特征和消费规律.ppt

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1、第七讲 (上) 住房特征和住房消费规律The principles of Housing markets,住房需求The demand for housing,人口(人口统计特征,人口变化趋势) Population (demography, the population trends) 离婚率 Divorce rate收入(注意家庭结构的变化) Income可供利用的信贷 Availability of credit偏好的变化 Changes in taste,住房供给Housing supply,供给的测算 Evaluation of supply (demolition and dest

2、ruction, conversion and its effect on supply, new construction ,future supply trends)住宅是否适用? Is the housing suitable? (What about condition? What about features? What about location? Suitable for whom?),住房特性和住房消费规律The rules of Housing markets,住房异质性与住房消费偏好 Housing heterogeneity and consuming taste搬迁成

3、本与消费选择 Moving cost and consuming choice住房过滤效应及其实证 Filtering effect and examples中国的情况: 二、三级住房市场(过滤效应的挖掘与应用) Chinas situation : filtering between the second and third housing submarket租房和买房的选择 Choice between owning and renting a house,1 住房的异质性Heterogeneity,个别性 Specialty特征的衡量 Measurement of characteris

4、tics,对住房质量产生影响的因素Factors affecting housing quality,住房消费需求偏好Choosing a dwelling-preferences,Quiet,Size,Budget line of low-income household,Budget line of high-income household,异质性及住房消费偏好Housing heterogeneity and consuming taste,在支付能力准许时,购房家庭会选择具有最优特征组合的住房. Households will buy dwellings with the best

5、features if they can afford them.假设在某一住房市场上,住宅仅在大小面积和环境安静两方面上存在不同。上图中显示了在这种情况下三个家庭的不同选择。 Suppose dwellings are different only in size and environment.,异质性与住房市场的细分Housing heterogeneity and submarkets,住房异质性Housing heterogeneity,家庭偏好Consuming taste,细分市场Submarkets,2 搬迁成本、收入增长与居住选择Large moving cost, inco

6、me growth and dwelling selection,住房消费的另一个特点是高昂的搬迁成本。包括经济成本和人文成本。 Another characteristic of housing consuming is large moving cost, including economic cost and human cost.只有当搬家收益大于搬家成本时,家庭才会搬家。(搬家收益是指在新住房获得更高的价格与住房服务比的机会) Only if moving brings more benefit than cost will households choose to move. (M

7、oving benefits means more opportunity to get higher price-service ratio.),高成本与搬迁选择High moving cost and choice,Consuming of all other goods,Housing consuming (m2),Budget line I3,Budget line I2,Budget line I1,高成本与搬迁选择High moving cost and choice,如上图中所示 :第一,家庭收入小幅度增长时不太可能引起住房消费的变化。A small increase in in

8、come can hardly change housing consuming.第二,当一个家庭搬迁时,住房消费往往有一个很大的变化。When a household moves, housing consuming usually changes a lot.例1:同济大学教职工在传统分房时的选择搬迁与否?是否接受分配;例2:动拆迁家庭的原地回迁“人性化安置”,住房过滤效应Filtering effect,住房过滤效应的含义:对同一幢(套)住房而言,随着时间的推移,具有以下规律,一是住房提供的服务减少;二是住房的居住者收入减低。住房从高收入阶层淘汰,流向低收入阶层。Filtering ef

9、fect means for a single dwelling , the service it provides and dwellers income decrease with time. A dwelling will pass from households with higher incomes to households with lower incomes.例1:曲阳新村由大中型国有企业的干部新村逐渐过滤为工人新村;例2:同济新村由教授教师为主的新村逐渐过滤为老年退休教师、新白领、研究生的新村;,过滤的两个基于现实的假设前提Two realistic assumptions,

10、第一,改造老房子比建造新房子成本高,于是高收入家庭腾出老房子; First, it is more costly to upgrade housing than to build new housing; the high cost of upgrading causes the high-income household to vacate its old house.第二,高收入家庭腾空的旧房子数量足够多,导致其售价低于低收入家庭买新房子的成本。在相对较低的价格下,老房子对低收入家庭来说带来更高的效用。 Second, the supply of leftover housing is l

11、arge enough that the price is low relative to the cost of new housing. Given the relatively low price, used housing generates a higher utility level for low-income households.思考:两个假设是否现实?,3 住房过滤效应The mechanics of filtering,Quality,Size,a High-Income Household,Quality,Size,b Low-Income Household,Budg

12、et : 2004 new,Budget : 2004 upgrade,Budget : 1998,Budget : 2004 new,Budget : 1998,Weicher和Thibodeau实证研究结果Researching results of Weicher and Thibodeaus,研究表明,住房过滤确实存在,数量上十分明显。详见教材p67 Research has shown that housing filtering does exist and is quite obvious in quantity.从长期来看,过滤效应可以减少低质量住房的形成。 In the lo

13、ng term, filtering effect will reduce the quantity of low-quality dwellings.,过滤效应与政府的补贴:Filtering effect and subsidies from government,由于住房过滤效应的存在,政府对某一分市场的补贴会对其他分市场产生影响。(具体内容以后章节讨论) Because of filtering effect, subsidies from government will influence other submarkets.,Subsidize the construction of

14、 housing for the poor or the rich?,The filtering model can be used to argue that subsidies to new construction of housing for “rich” people can benefit many others. There are three important caveats to this argument, though. First, there are transaction costs in converting housing from one market to

15、 another, not to mention externalities as neighborhoods change their composition over their time. Second, the benefits to lower-income households depends on a fairly rapid turnover of housing; if the filtering process operates only with a substantial lag, then current low-income households may not r

16、eceive much benefit from current subsidies to housing construction. Third, the existing housing for, say, middle-income people may be poorly located from the perspective of the lower-income people to whom it is supposed to be filtering.,中国的过滤情况:二、三级住房市场关系Filtering in China: relationship between the

17、second and third grade housing submarket,理论实质:住房过滤 Theory basic is filtering effect.1998-2003年的情况:过滤发生 From the statistics of 1998 to 2003, it did happen.20052006的情况:过滤受阻 The current situation is filtering is plugged.对目前政策的市场效应思考:如何促进过滤? How to propel filtering?2008年下半年:鼓励二手房转让,交易所得税降低,促进转让,促进过滤。,4

18、租房和买房的选择Renting vs. owning,阅读讨论 “李大伟,买房不如租房,新民晚报,2007年12月9日,B3版”,4.1 租房成本和买房成本的差异Differences between renting and owning?,租房成本高于买房成本的三个原因: The cost of renting is often higher for three reasons.1) 存在承租人的外部性; There exists renter externality.2) 较高的风险因而较高的贷款利率; Renting involves higher risk and loan inter

19、est rate.3) 出租房的管理成本高于自住房; Renting brings higher managing cost than owning a dwelling,4.2 税收、金融优惠和成本Taxation, financial favor and cost,快速折旧(延税、降低租金、租客受益) Fast depreciation (putting off tax, decreasing rent, renters getting benefits)抵押扣除(税前还贷): (富裕家庭享受更多的减免、刺激买房消费,可能引致低效选择) Mortgage deduction (repayi

20、ng the loan before taxation) means rich households enjoying more deduction, stimulating housing consuming , which may induces inefficient choice,4.3 抵押扣除和隐性租金收入Mortgage deduction and imputed rental income,买房自住:甲,隐性租金收入,抵押扣除 A owns a house and lives there : imputed rental income and mortgage deductio

21、n买房出租:乙,实际租金收入,抵押扣除、 B owns a house and rent it : actual rent income and mortgage deduction承租:丙 C is a renter.,4.4 税收政策对产权房的偏向与支持Taxation preference to dwellings with property rights.,出租房快速折旧,导致折旧结束后就“易手” Rented dwellings depreciate fast, resulting in changing renters rapidly.产权房税前还贷,刺激购房 Repaying t

22、he loan before taxation stimulates housing purchasing.税前还贷与隐形租金收入 Repaying the loan before taxation and imputed rental income住房外部性和税收倾斜 Rental externalities and taxation declining,关于买方租房的结论,1)住房的高成本导致部分家庭选择租房;2)快速折旧、抵押扣除等公共政策会影响家庭在租房和买房之间的选择;3)优惠政策实际上是政府为家庭支付了部分住房账单,家庭做出了一种低效率的选择。详见图54,复习思考题Question

23、s,1.一般来说,导致城市住房异质性的主要因素有哪些?依次列出你认为最重要的10个因素。 what are the general factors making urban dwellings different? List the top 10 of them.2.什么是住房消费的过滤效应?过滤模型的两个假设前提是什么? What are the filtering effects of housing consuming? What are the two assumptions?3.一般情况下,买房和租房之间比较,成本有何差异? What is the general differenc

24、e in cost between owning and renting a house?,复习思考题Questions,4.相对于租房,政府为什么鼓励买房?从美国、中国的经验看,政府曾采取哪些措施鼓励买房?有何负面影响? Why do governments prefer encouraging owning to renting a house? What strategies have been used to encourage owning a house from the experience of America and China and what are the negati

25、ve effects? 5.理解并解释如下几个概念:快速折旧、抵押扣除(税前还贷)、隐性租金收入。 Understand and explain the following concepts: fast depreciation, mortgage deduction and imputed rental income.,复习思考题Questions,6.假设你目前必须自找住房,你会选择租房还是买房,为什么? Supposing you have to search for a dwelling for yourself, will you rent or buy one? Why?7.在制定

26、和完善住房政策时,应该注意遵循住房消费的哪些规律? Which housing consuming laws should be obeyed when making and developing housing policies?,本章参考文献References,钱瑛瑛,房地产经济学, 同济大学出版社,2004年11月 Qianyingying, Real Estate Economics, Tongji University press, Mar.2008原版补充材料 Denise DisPasquale, William C. Wheaton. Urban Economics and Real Estate Markets, New Jersey: Prentice-Hall, Inc. 1996,

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