global_strategy：global_asset_fundflow_tracker-a_summary_for_the_full_year_2012-2013-01-21.ppt

1、GLOBALSTRATEGYGLOBAL,(10,000),10,000,0,(20,000),(30,000),12,000,8,000,4,000,0,24,000,16,000,8,000,0,(8,000),-,-,-,-,-,-,-,-,-,-,-,-,STRATEGY NOTEStrategy,Global,4 January 2013,Global StrategyGlobal Asset Fundflow Tracker - A summaryfor the full year 2012Key Takeaway,Benefiting from the low interest

2、rate environment in the US and Europe, globalbond funds enjoyed the largest net inflows (US$268bn) among all asset classesin 2012. In fact, bond funds also led other asset classes in terms of net inflowsduring 2009 and 2011. Relative to their trading history, net injections intobond and commodity (U

3、S$17bn) funds for the full year 2012 stood at recordhighs. The net inflows into equity funds (US36bn) in 2012 almost recoveredthe withdrawals in 2011. Money market funds saw unwinding for four straightyears but last years withdrawal (US$1.1bn) was the lightest during this period.Among global bond fu

4、nds, US and developed market bonds captured the majority ofthe investment geographically. The same was true for corporate and municipal bondsby category. On the back of solid net inflows during 4Q, Developed Europe bond fundsrecorded net inflows for the first time in three years. In contrast, corpor

5、ate bond funds sawnet withdrawals overall for the first time in four years amid near record low yields. During2H12, we highlighted there was a switch of preference into US corporate bonds away fromUS government bonds, which may continue given that government bond yields remainedat low levels.Overall

6、 global equities saw while net injections for 2012 but there was a divergence in termsof investment preference between emerging markets and developed markets, EM over DM.EM equities outperformed DM equities as a result. Among developed markets, Japan, HongKong and Canada saw the largest net inflows

7、via mutual fund and ETF investors. At the otherend, US, Germany and France experienced the largest net withdrawals. Among emergingmarkets, China, Korea and Brazil saw the largest net inflows via mutual fund/ETF investors.All emerging markets recorded net inflows for the full year. Within Asia Pacifi

8、c, via mutualfund and ETF investors as well as foreign investors, Japan, India and Korea came top withthe largest net inflows for the year. Only Australian funds recorded a light net outflow whileall Asian markets experienced net injections.,Mut ua l fund/ ETF flows ( full year 2012)into developed e

9、quit y ma r k et s ( t op a nd bot t om 5)20,000Source: EPFR, JefferiesMut ua l fund/ ETF flows ( full year 2012)into emer ging equit y mar k et s ( t op a nd bott om 5)16,000Source: EPFR, JefferiesMut ua l fund/ ETF/ for eign flows ( full yea r 2012)into A sia P a cific equit y ma r k et s ( t op a

10、 nd bott om 5)32,000Source: EPFR, Jefferies,Note: PH = Philippines, SP = Singapore, NZ = New Zealand. FI = foreign investors,MFI = mutual fund investors, ETFI = ETF investorsGlobal Asset Fundflows ,Asset Class,Duration(wks),Current StreakSize Size(USDm, net) (%, of AUM),Return(%),Size(USDm, net),Cur

11、rent WeekSize Change(%, of AUM) ( / ),Return(%),Change( / ),ContentsGlobal Bonds Summary,p2,BondsCommoditiesEquitiesMoney Markets,2(1)62,2,715(172)40,28646,882,0.1(0.1)0.81.4,-0.50.66.9(0.1),2,295(172)5,06541,974,0.0(0.1)0.11.3,(0.3)0.62.4(0.1),Global Equities SummaryTracking Asset Class TrendsTrack

12、ing US,p3p4p5,Bonds,Tracking Developed Europe,p6,Developed MarketsEmerging Markets,130,98727,508,0.016.2,9871,308,0.00.7,Tracking Asia,p7,Developed EuropeUSShort-term CorporateIntermediate-term CorporateLong-term Corporate,21111,6313581291091,0.20.00.30.10.0,-,2873581291091,0.10.00.30.10.0,-,-,Short

13、-term GovernmentIntermediate-term Government,(6)(5),(1,380)(2,037),(2.0)(1.9),(187)(753),(0.3)(0.7),Long-term GovernmentHigh Yield,12,385417,0.60.1,-,385265,0.60.1,-,-,Equities,Developed MarketsEmerging MarketsAsia Pacific (ETF, mutual funds)Asia Pacific (foreign investors)Developed EuropeEMEALatin

14、America,417167(1)(1)1,9,04638,43817,90936,844(340)(148)131,0.25.34.90.4(0.1)(0.4)0.3,4.214.88.39.21.92.62.6,1,7973,4191,6861,486(340)(148)131,0.00.40.40.1(0.1)(0.4)0.3,2.13.21.91.91.21.04.4,North America 1 858 0.0 3.0Source: Bloomberg, EPFR, Jefferies. Weekly data is measured from Thursday to latest

15、 Wednesday,858,0.0,2.8,Kenneth Chan *,Quantitative Strategist+852 3743 8079 * Jefferies Hong Kong LimitedJefferies does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that Jefferies may have aconflict of interest that could affect the

16、objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investmentdecision. Please see analyst certifications, important disclosure information, and information regarding the status of non-US analysts on pages 9 to 11 ofthis report.,StrategyGlobal4 J

17、anuary 2013Global Bonds SummaryExhibit 1: Global Bonds Fundflow Summary,Current Streak,Current Week,Past Four Weeks,Past Three Months,Full Year 2012,No of,Size ,Size ,Size,Size,Chg,Size,Size,Size,Size,Size,Size,Bond Type,wks ,US$m,% AUM,US$m,% AUM (/),US$m,% AUM,US$m,% AUM,US$m,% AUM,BondsDeveloped

18、MarketsEmerging MarketsDeveloped EuropeGlobalUS,2130221,2,71598727,508631362358,0.10.016.20.20.10.0,2,2959871,308287226358,0.10.00.70.10.00.0,3,802(155)3,957668315(2,251),0.2(0.0)2.00.20.0(0.1),64,71750,90413,8136,51515,09330,007,2.72.37.52.42.42.0,267,846227,69140,1562,38636,136176,390,12.611.625.5

19、0.66.513.3,Corporate and Government(Non-Dedicated),Short-termDeveloped EuropeGlobalUSIntermediate-termDeveloped EuropeGlobalPacificUSLong-termDeveloped EuropeGlobalJapanUS,52(1)747111(5)(6)1(4)1(1)(3),29,306(120)85823,06713596208(4)(2,358)39(301)48(0)(90),15.6(0.4)2.117.90.00.20.2(1.8)(0.7)0.1(2.1)0

20、.3(0.1)(1.3),125(120)10314213596208(0)(168)39(8)48(0)(1),0.1(0.4)0.20.10.00.20.2(0.1)(0.1)0.1(0.1)0.3(0.1)(0.0),1,778(29)5541,254(1,927)(58)83(4)(1,948)(391)(301)(7)(2)(81),0.8(0.0)1.40.9(0.4)(0.1)0.1(1.6)(0.6)(1.0)(2.1)(0.0)(0.4)(1.2),8,0535931,0676,3935,4937631,095183,617(589)(246)(603)16892,3.92.

21、42.64.51.21.61.28.91.1(1.5)(1.7)(3.2)44.01.4,29,1724605,17123,54127,270(49)7,6471119,662551(927)157671,254,15.52.114.018.46.6(0.3)9.86.76.71.8(6.9)1.321.421.1,Corporate,Short-termDeveloped EuropeGlobalUSIntermediate-termDeveloped EuropeGlobalUSLong-termDeveloped EuropeGlobalUSBlend CurrencyHard Curr

22、encyLocal CurrencyFloating Rate,13(4)291(3)311(1)(2)11302528,129157(223)3,935109(169)0371(1)(26)612014,0818,9518,161,0.31.6(1.2)20.10.1(0.4)0.30.30.0(0.0)(0.2)0.00.419.412.416.1,12962(39)106109(12)84371(1)(4)6120517671361,0.30.6(0.2)0.50.1(0.0)0.20.30.0(0.0)(0.0)0.00.40.60.80.7,321150(223)39498(109)

23、0164(204)4721(272)1521,5362,2681,608,0.61.5(1.2)1.80.1(0.3)0.11.2(0.4)1.60.2(0.8)0.51.82.83.0,2,07755391,9764,00331961,1111,691905001,1021,5656,0526,1964,928,4.30.60.39.54.30.96.08.93.73.14.23.55.57.68.19.4,11,2041,6742,6006,91712,5191,304223,41210,1411152,5277,4995,62622,42312,1068,820,29.026.516.4

24、43.516.95.022.338.827.24.725.730.121.034.718.117.8,Government,Short-termDeveloped EuropeGlobalPacificUSIntermediate-termDeveloped EuropeGlobalJapanPacificUSLong-termDeveloped EuropeGlobalJapanUSHigh YieldDeveloped EuropeGlobalUSInflation ProtectedDeveloped EuropeGlobalPacificUSMortgage BackedMunicip

25、alTotal Return,(6)(1)(8)(5)(6)(5)(1)1(1)(1)(5)12(2)(2)12232(3)(1)1(1)(3)(1)12,(1,380)(90)(316)(2)(1,062)(2,037)(5)33(2)(14)(1,027)38528(137)(5)4194173,828164(827)(52)7(48)0(327)(27)207792,(2.0)(0.4)(4.8)(0.9)(2.8)(1.9)(0.0)0.2(0.4)(0.6)(3.0)0.60.1(0.7)(0.5)3.70.131.70.2(0.4)(0.1)0.0(0.3)0.0(0.6)(0.0

26、)0.10.4,(187)(90)(42)(0)(54)(753)(5)33(2)(14)(766)38519(52)(1)41926534274(152)(52)7(48)(11)0(27)207250,(0.3)(0.4)(0.6)(0.1)(0.1)(0.7)(0.0)0.2(0.4)(0.6)(2.2)0.60.1(0.3)(0.1)3.70.12.30.1(0.1)(0.1)0.0(0.3)(0.0)0.0(0.0)0.10.1,(730)42(177)(2)(593)(1,700)(428)(309)11(966)(293)20(87)20(246)1,7711,191591(11

27、)17473199(1)(97)631(2,160)907,(1.0)0.2(2.6)(0.8)(1.6)(1.6)(0.9)(1.4)0.30.0(2.8)(0.4)0.1(0.4)1.8(1.9)0.58.30.6(0.0)0.20.51.3(0.4)(0.2)0.8(0.6)0.4,(179)124(245)(4)(54)2,5155251,398(20)615502,0081,8635361326,6602,3483,364948(112)(314)484(0)(281)4,8784,2835,227,(0.2)0.5(3.6)(1.7)(0.1)2.51.37.0(4.5)2.71.

28、83.26.10.35.70.52.117.53.70.4(0.1)(2.3)3.2(0.2)(0.5)6.01.22.7,(5,932)(1,990)(703)(26)(3,213)(3,268)(3,223)(212)131,023(869)7281,671(182)212(972)52,9363,68610,43238,8172,591(1,335)1,11852,80228,32833,08019,476,(8.9)(9.7)(11.1)(10.3)(8.2)(4.0)(10.3)(1.5)3.670.7(2.3)1.25.6(1.0)39.9(7.0)19.830.812.821.5

29、3.5(9.9)8.42.05.544.29.911.6,Source: Jefferies. Weekly data is measured from Thursday to latest Wednesday No of consecutive weeks of net inflow or (outflow); Size of net inflow is measured in USDm and % of AUM,page 2 of 11Please see important disclosure information on pages 9 - 11 of this report.,Ke

30、nneth Chan, Quantitative Strategist, +852 3743 8079, ,StrategyGlobal4 January 2013Global Equities SummaryExhibit 2: Global Equities Fundflow Summary,Current Streak,Current Week,Recent Four Weeks,Full Year 2012,No of,Size,Size,Rtn,Size,Size,Chg,Rtn,Chg,Size,Size,Rtn,Size,Size,Rtn,Region/CountryGlobal

31、 EquitiesDeveloped MktsEmerging MktsAsia PacificAsia Pacific (FI)Dev. EuropeEMEALatin AmericaNorth America,wks6417167(1)(1)11,US$m40,2869,04638,43817,90936,844(340)(148)131858,% AUM0.80.25.34.90.4(0.1)(0.4)0.30.0,%6.94.214.88.39.21.92.62.63.0,US$m5,0651,7973,4191,6861,486(340)(148)131858,% AUM0.10.0

32、0.40.40.1(0.1)(0.4)0.30.0,/,%2.42.13.21.91.91.21.04.42.8,/,US$m23,1139,04615,3586,75325,2152,471(132)3944,675,% AUM0.50.22.01.70.20.4(0.3)0.90.2,%4.24.26.04.44.44.37.28.03.8,US$m35,978(17,024)54,55117,68284,029(13,152)(1,664)(109)(23,527),% AUM0.7(0.4)7.84.93.4(2.9)(4.7)(0.3)(1.0),%17.217.218.116.01

33、6.020.420.19.316.6,Asia Pacific,AustraliaChinaHong KongIndiaIndia (FI)IndonesiaIndonesia (FI)JapanJapan (FI)KoreaKorea (FI)MalaysiaNew ZealandPhilippinesPhilippines (FI)SingaporeTaiwanTaiwan (FI)ThailandThailand (FI),117149973316(1)147141112141176,2312,4571,8861,5906,85844527894405,184(15)5331541367

34、22632,1813891,1791,311,0.07.33.62.32.82.20.30.50.05.1(0.0)3.51.15.82.01.33.50.15.31.7,2.726.19.66.76.7(1.2)(0.2)3.710.411.33.94.85.815.09.55.34.12.214.911.8,23952180316725881615520449(15)523386750210389119159,0.00.50.30.40.30.40.20.30.00.4(0.0)0.30.20.50.20.20.30.10.50.2,2.74.52.72.32.31.51.5(0.2)(0

35、.2)3.93.91.52.01.21.21.02.22.22.62.6,524,7535058944,42426318790515,2492,4302,99923071612921148101,371423692,0.12.60.91.31.81.30.20.50.82.40.51.50.62.10.90.51.30.41.80.9,4.46.93.02.02.02.22.24.24.26.66.63.63.63.33.33.61.61.67.87.8,(128)15,0332,2962,94124,8471,4671,88910,13132,1827,89215,2131,11246656

36、1,7543892,7615,5892,0222,556,(0.1)9.14.64.710.77.32.06.11.68.33.07.43.811.16.11.94.51.510.03.6,19.722.527.324.224.24.34.37.37.323.923.912.128.447.647.627.115.115.133.733.7,Developed Europe,AustriaBelgiumDenmarkFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceIrelandItalyNetherlandsNorwayPortugalSpainSwedenSwitzerlandUK,(1

37、)666(1)(1)7213627552(1),(0)1088356(59)(30)1710887305324423028467(42),(0.0)0.80.80.8(0.0)(0.0)1.90.13.50.80.21.91.00.70.0(0.0),3.28.38.112.92.32.012.22.110.510.61.414.710.69.2(1.9)2.3,(0)214(59)(30)31591210212817(42),(0.0)0.00.00.1(0.0)(0.0)0.30.00.20.00.10.10.00.10.0(0.0),3.21.92.12.82.32.02.33.43.4

38、1.92.52.32.22.9(1.0)2.3,46695233(136)55013293002015035178227109348,0.90.50.50.5(0.1)0.31.50.41.10.50.31.50.70.50.10.1,8.74.33.85.95.15.77.48.66.84.05.010.08.45.81.13.5,13953136(59)(3,384)(3,623)63851,228(75)22756351(42)(1,164)(393),2.80.21.0(0.7)(3.2)(2.6)8.81.15.1(0.5)1.42.61.6(0.3)(1.2)(0.2),28.04

39、2.034.717.924.833.63.811.215.822.619.73.03.425.819.315.3,EMEA,Czech RepublicEgyptHungaryIsraelMoroccoPolandRussiaSouth AfricaTurkey,5672676912,274446123146540980649,1.21.72.10.21.62.10.93.03.6,5.6(2.7)(1.6)(1.9)(2.4)17.98.79.918.4,5877021587990,0.20.30.30.10.20.30.10.20.5,1.12.74.51.70.12.51.93.03.4,