1、3600,3200,2800,2400,2000,1600,Anglo American,Deutsche BankMarkets Research,RatingBuyEuropeUnited Kingdom,CompanyAnglo American,Date10 September 2012Company Update,Metals & MiningMetals & Mining,ReutersAAL.L,BloombergAAL LN,Exchange TickerLSEAAL,Price at 7 Sep 2012 (GBP)Price Target (GBP)52-week rang
2、e (GBP),1,972.502,920.002,910.00 - 1,748.50,Digging into shareholder frustrationRecent underperformance to the sector exploredAnglo American recently underperformed the sector on the basis of shareprices and earnings forecasts. The reason for this is not in Platinum but in theunderperformance of the
3、 core. We outline operational issues at Los Bronces,Collahuasi, Sishen and in Met Coal. In addition, we review project performanceand assess the extent to which projects are late and over budget. We highlightthe negative cash flow outlook for Anglo, particularly assuming spot prices.We think copper
4、growth will return and hope to see cost curtailmentannouncements. Upside to our valuation leads to our Buy recommendation.Assessing operational issues and project performanceAnglo is currently facing four operational challenges, in our view. Los Broncesis running 22% below nameplate due to lower gra
5、des and lack of flexibility.Collahuasi is facing various issues and running 41% below 1H09 productionlevels. Sishen is producing at a rate below sales and supplementing sales from,Grant SporreResearch Analyst(+44) 20 754-Rob CliffordResearch Analyst(+44) 20 754-Price/price relative,Tim ClarkResearch
6、 Analyst(+27) 11 775-,a faster Kolomela ramp up and inventory reductions. In addition to the four,9/09,3/10,9/10,3/11,9/11,3/12,projects delivered, they are on average 62% over initial budget and 39% late.,We find that acquisitions since 2007 have destroyed US$7.6bn of value, while,FTSE 100 INDEX (R
7、ebased),disposals (AA Sur was forced) have generated US$3.8bn in excess of ourvaluation. We think this underperformance has damaged shareholderperceptions of Anglo and that decisive action is required for a re-rating.,Performance (%)AbsoluteFTSE 100 INDEX,1m-1.8-0.8,3m-7.56.4,12m-20.39.0,Cash flow o
8、utlook remains a concernWe forecast debt at US$9bn at the end of 2012e, increasing to US$11.8bn at2014e. However, if we assume that spot prices and currencies persist, debtlevels rise to US$9.4bn in 2012e, US$12.6bn in 2013e and US$17.2bn in2014e. This is an uncomfortable level for Anglo, and we thi
9、nk thatmanagement should pre-empt it with lower costs and capex.Price target remains 2920p (35000 SAc); rating remains Buy; risksOur price target reflects a valuation taking into consideration both DCF overlife-of-mine (9.5% WACC Beta 1.25, ERP 4.5%, Rf 5%, COD 6% on athrough-the-cycle target gearin
10、g of 30%). We value the group at 1x NPV, inline with its long-term average and reflecting what we believe is the marketsunwillingness to pay for more than approved growth. Risks to our view includestronger-than-expected operating currencies (Rand, A$) and lower commodityprices, in particular PGMs, c
11、opper and iron ore. More valuation and risks onpage 41.Forecasts And Ratios,Year End Dec 31DB EPS (USD)% ChangeP/E (DB EPS) (x)Yield (%),2010A4.010.0%10.31.6,2011A5.060.0%8.91.7,2012E2.48-0.5%12.82.6,2013E2.991.3%10.62.7,2014E3.28-0.7%9.62.8,Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, company data_Deutsche Ban
12、k AG/LondonAll prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourcedfrom local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subjectcompanies. Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with co
13、mpanies covered in its research reports. Thus,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES ANDANALYST CERTIFICATI
14、ONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 072/04/2012.,10,10 September 2012Metals & MiningAnglo American,Model updated:09 September 2012,Fiscal year end 31-Dec,2009,2010,2011,2012E,2013E,2014E,Running the numbers,Financial Summary,EuropeUnited KingdomMetals & MiningAnglo American,DB EPS (USD)Reported E
15、PS (USD)DPS (USD)BVPS (USD)Weighted average shares (m)Average market cap (USDm),2.081.970.0021.71,20233,937,4.015.230.6528.41,20649,759,5.065.100.7432.31,21054,238,2.482.100.8233.61,24439,327,2.992.990.8634.91,28040,465,3.283.280.8837.41,28040,465,Reuters: AAL.L,Bloomberg: AAL LN,Enterprise value (U
16、SDm),40,223,51,756,64,162,50,860,53,790,55,985,Valuation Metrics,Buy,P/E (DB) (x)P/E (Reported) (x),13.614.4,10.37.9,8.98.8,12.815.1,10.610.6,9.69.6,Price (7 Sep 12)Target Price52 Week rangeMarket Cap (m),GBP 1,972.50GBP 2,920.00GBP 1,748.50 - 2,910.00GBPm 24,538USDm 39,327,P/BV (x)FCF Yield (%)Divi
17、dend Yield (%)EV/Sales (x)EV/EBITDA (x)EV/EBIT (x),2.01nm0.01.99.114.7,1.845.01.61.94.96.0,1.146.01.72.15.66.8,0.94nm2.61.66.18.4,0.913.52.71.44.96.6,0.853.72.81.44.96.5,Company Profile,Income Statement (USDm),Anglo American plc is a globally diversified miningcompany. It has interests in diamonds,
18、platinum, coal,copper, nickel, zinc, iron ore, and industrial minerals. TheGroup has operations and developments in Africa, Europe,Australia, and South and North America. The companyfirst listed in London in 1999, and has been disposing onnon-core assets to create a more focused mining group.Anglos
19、diamond and platinum assets differentiate it fromthe other diversified miners.Price Performance360032002800240020001600,Sales revenueGross profitEBITDADepreciationAmortisationEBITNet interest income(expense)Associates/affiliatesExceptionals/extraordinariesOther pre-tax income/(expense)Profit before
20、taxIncome tax expenseMinoritiesOther post-tax income/(expense)Net profitDB adjustments (including dilution)DB Net profit,20,8584,4324,4321,69202,740-407841,61204,0291,11748702,4251442,569,27,96010,53210,5321,86608,666-1398221,57915411,0822,8091,57506,698-1,5685,130,30,58011,40611,4061,96709,43918397
21、718326411,0462,8601,75306,433-496,384,30,9168,3288,3282,26106,066-223492-39-1106,1862,0471,45302,6874843,171,39,61111,05911,0592,90508,154-750655008,0602,4961,67103,89303,893,40,48411,49811,4982,85208,645-858729008,5162,5781,66804,27004,270,Sep 09 Mar 10 Sep 10 Mar 11 Sep 11 Mar 12,Cash Flow (USDm),
22、Cash flow from operations,4,087,7,727,9,362,5,310,8,470,9,109,Anglo AmericanMargin Trends403020,FTSE 100 INDEX (Rebased),Net CapexFree cash flowEquity raised/(bought back)Dividends paidNet inc/(dec) in borrowingsOther investing/financing cash flowsNet cash flowChange in working capital,-4,561-47450-
23、472-3711,282150,-5,2162,511-64-919-7881,8822,6220,-6,1263,236-347-2,2224,6672995,6330,-5,731-42222-2,2462,081-6,687-7,2510,-7,0661,40422-2,2280-350-1,1510,-7,6271,48322-2,2580-858-1,6120,Balance Sheet (USDm),09,10,11,12E,13E,14E,Cash and other liquid assets,3,269,6,401,11,732,4,684,3,533,1,921,EBITD
24、A MarginGrowth & Profitability403020100-10-20-30,EBIT Margin,2520151050,Tangible fixed assetsGoodwill/intangible assetsAssociates/investmentsOther assetsTotal assetsInterest bearing debtOther liabilitiesTotal liabilitiesShareholders equityMinoritiesTotal shareholders equity,35,1983,1186,8997,82456,3
25、0814,50613,73328,23926,1211,94828,069,39,8102,6958,9158,83566,65613,58115,10428,68534,2393,73237,971,40,5492,6828,8048,67572,44212,87316,38029,25339,0924,09743,189,41,4042,62716,40610,73275,85314,22816,48130,70941,8363,30945,144,45,1662,62716,92111,77580,02114,22817,29131,51944,6873,81648,503,49,940
26、2,62717,57212,07984,13914,22817,70731,93547,8654,33952,204,09,10,11,12E,13E,14E,Net debt,11,237,7,180,1,141,9,544,10,695,12,307,Sales growth (LHS),ROE (RHS),Key Company Metrics,Solvency,Sales growth (%)DB EPS growth (%),-20.7-51.9,34.092.3,9.426.4,1.1-51.1,28.121.0,2.29.7,50403020100,706050403020100
27、,EBITDA Margin (%)EBIT Margin (%)Payout ratio (%)ROE (%)Capex/sales (%)Capex/depreciation (x)Net debt/equity (%),21.213.10.010.522.12.740.0,37.731.011.722.218.92.818.9,37.330.913.917.520.33.22.6,26.919.638.16.618.52.521.1,27.920.628.39.017.82.422.1,28.421.426.49.218.82.723.6,09,10,11,12E,13E,14E,Net
28、 interest cover (x),6.7,62.3,nm,27.2,10.9,10.1,Net debt/equity (LHS)Grant Sporre,Net interest cover (RHS),Source: Company data, Deutsche Bank estimates,+44 20 754-58170Page 2,,Deutsche Bank AG/London,FY09A,FY10A,FY12E,FY13E,FY14E,FY15E,FY11,FY09A,FY10A,FY12E,FY13E,FY14E,FY15E,FY11,FY09A,FY10A,FY12E,
29、FY13E,FY14E,FY15E,FY11,FY11,FY09A,FY10A,FY12E,FY13E,FY14E,FY15E,1%,-,-,-,18% 12,000 60%,10 September 2012Metals & MiningAnglo AmericanFigure 1: Anglo divisional data sheet,ANGLO AMERICAN OPERATIONAL AND FINANCIAL SUMMARY DATAFX/COMMODITY ASSUMPTIONS FY 09A FY 10A FY 11 FY 12E FY 13E FY 14E FY 15EZAR
30、/USD 8.43 7.33 7.24 7.98 7.97 8.59 9.42Platinum $/oz 1,205 1,610 1,731 1,581 1,700 1,800 1,850Palladium $/oz 264 527 737 679 750 800 900Gold $/oz 974 1,226 1,578 1,727 2,050 1,800 1,606Met Coal $/t 156 178 289 228 264 230 210Iron Ore $/t 67 114 160 131 132 122 110Copper Usc/lb 234 343 404 358 363 34
31、0 323Nickel Usc/lb 664 991 1,047 829 885 907 885PRODUCTIONPlatinum koz 1,404 1,855 1,816 1,841 2,010 1,928 2,032SA Thermal Coal - Eskom & Dom mt 39 38 40 38 39 41 43SA Thermal Coal - Export mt 20 20 17 16 17 17 17Australia Met Coal - Domestic mt 11 11 10 9 9 9 9Australia Met Coal - Export mt 16 19 1
32、7 21 22 23 23Sth America Thermal Coal - Expor mt 10 10 11 12 13 15 15Iron Ore mt 27 32 31 33 44 44 61Copper kt 670 623 589 524 523 537 499Nickel kt 19 19 28 46 59 60 61Diamonds mCt 11 15 14 18 25 26 32REVENUE, US$MThermal Coal 2,490 2,866 3,722 3,287 3,442 3,874 3,932Nickel 348 426 488 451 1,180 1,2
33、24 1,212Copper 3,967 4,877 5,144 5,333 6,457 6,192 5,624Diamonds 1,728 2,644 3,320 4,265 7,199 7,909 9,602Platinum 4,535 6,602 7,359 5,908 7,336 7,537 7,833Iron Ore 3,419 6,612 8,124 7,206 8,501 7,961 9,891OMIG 5,908 5,520 4,040 4,004 3,809 4,232 3,598Total 22,395 29,547 32,197 30,454 37,923 38,930
34、41,691EBIT, US$MMet Coal 451 783 1189 464 941 594 401,NPVMet CoalThermal CoalNickelCopperDiamondsPlatinumIron OreOMIGOther AssetsLess net debtMinoritiesCorporateTOTALNAV (GBP per share)NAV (ZAR per share)WACCRevenue split (2012F)Platinum19%Diamonds14%,US$bn US$/sh % o f EV3.2 2.3 3.6%9.3 6.6 10.2%2.
35、1 1.5 2.3%18.9 13.4 20.9%10.6 7.6 11.7%17.3 12.3 19.1%24.2 17.2 26.7%2.8 2.0 3.0%2.2 1.6 2.5%9.0 (6.4)17.1 (12.1)0.8 (0.5)63.7 45.429.2349.09.5% Shares (m) 1,405Iron Ore24%OMIG13%Thermal Coal11%NickelCopper18%,Thermal CoalNickelCopperDiamondsPlatinumIron OreOMIGEBIT marg insMet CoalThermal CoalNicke
36、lCopperDiamondsPlatinumIron OreOMIGGro wth Capex, US$MMet CoalThermal CoalNickelCopper,721220106432124550620%29%1%51%4%1%36%9%963806011,453,710962817495837368166123%25%23%58%19%13%56%12%2172745251,530,1230572461659890452019527%33%12%48%20%12%56%5%6951903981,570,7681752147477149318236912%23%39%40%11%
37、3%44%9%772238150930,8423493079482223339839621%24%30%48%7%3%40%10%1,009309123944,11064502916818823318632914%29%37%47%10%11%40%8%9153031251,174,11664142641120362446172529%30%34%47%13%8%47%7%5131401272,290,EBIT split (2012F)Iron Ore41%Platinum2%Diamonds6%Copper28%Valuation Split by co mmo dity,OMIG5%Me
38、t Coal6%Thermal Coal10%Nickel2%,DiamondsPlatinumIron OreOMIGTotal CapexPlatinum9,000US$M6,0003,000-,71 92 106 393 736 941 1,0491,338 1,011 970 842 1,015 956 840519 1,195 1,732 2,216 2,669 2,967 1,131475 224 152 247 262 245 2454,934 5,068 5,813 5,788 7,066 7,627 6,334Iron OreUS$M50%9,00012% 40%6,000 30%6% 20%3,00010%0%-0%,
