1、Sub-sector,6mo,34,17,(2),2,9,10,5,9,23,27,14,30,44,26,(0),(3),1,(1),2,4,11,10,8,22,25,18,4.2,2.5,(14),14,14,100,140,120,100,80,60,40,40,January 21, 2013Asia Property WeeklyEquity ResearchA glance at the Asia property market,Key news and update,Upcoming events,China: 19 cities with data available saw
2、 vol. down(-3% median). 9 cities with data available sawprices up (median +3%).HK: 351 primary residential units were sold in the,China: PMI (Jan 24); HK: MTRC Light Rail Tin WingStn expression of interests deadline, Exports (Jan 24);Tender for Tuen Mun residential site close (Jan 25);SG: CPI (Jan 2
3、3); URA, HDB housing data, IP (Jan 25).,Performance (Market-cap weighted)Price performance (%)1-wk 1mo 3moChina (off-shore) 1 11 28China (on-shore) 4 16 28Hong KongIndia DevelopersJapan DevelopersJapan REITsSingapore DevelopersMSCI AeJ Real Estate,UnderlyingP/E (x)FY1112.611.218.912.659.017.919.3,Di
4、videndYield (%)FY112.41.12.72.40.8,% +/-Fwd. NAV(34)(37)(26)(34)3,week ending Jan. 20 (vs. 243 the previous week).Secondary market prices were up 0.3% wow.China: December new commodity home pricesincreased in 54 cities, dropped in 8 cities, andremained unchanged in 8 cities (NBS, Jan 18).,Results: M
5、IT, Suntec (Jan 22); CCT, Keppel Land (Jan23); MCT, Fortune REIT (Jan 24).Goldman Sachs Asia residential price indexAsia developer share price index vs. GS Asia residential price index (unweighted),MSCI Asia Real Estate 2 8Top / Bottom 5 performers of the weekAbsolute Perf. (%)Stock 1-wk 1-moDLF 14
6、17Risesun Real Estate Dev 12 34K Wah Intl 8 25Sobha Developers 8 10Housing Dev. & Infra. 7 3Top Buy / Sell ideas (mkt cap US$ 2 bn)Upside / (downside),28StockCity DevelopmentsWing TaiKeppel LandSumitomoKWG Prop.,Absolute Perf. (%)1-wk 1-mo(10) (14)(7) (1)(5) 1(5) 0(4) 8Upside / (downside),SG: Develo
7、pers sold 1,410 units in Dec, up 30%mom from a 2012 low in Nov (URA, Jan 15).,700600500,GS Asia residential priceindex (unweighted, RHS),200180160,Buy-rated stockLongfor PropChina Vanke (A)KWG Prop.Jiangsu ZhongnanNTT Urban Development,potential (%)4232242219,Sell-rated stockSuntec REITGreat EagleHo
8、ngkong & Shanghai hotelsChampion REITAscendas REIT,potential (%)(37)(25)(24)(24)(21),HK: CY Leung said in his Policy Speech that 300hectares, or 128,700 units, will be provided in theshort to medium term (The Standard, Jan 17).China: Property investment was up 11% yoy inDec. New starts dropped 9% yo
9、y (NBS, Jan 18).,400300200Asia property sector share priceindex (unweighted, LHS)0Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12Asia developer share price index vs. GS Asia residential price index (weighted),Top Buy / Sell ideas (mkt cap 300 hectare
10、s, or 128,700 units, in the short to mediumterms based on known developments (The Standard, Jan 17).Market source said UBS has renewed its office lease at Two IFC at HK$21.758mn permonth or HK$106psf pm (HKEJ, Jan 16).JapanMitsui Fudosan announced roughly 200bn investment in logistics parksthrough F
11、Y3/18 to profit from the market growth in mail order and e-commercebusinesses and eventually selling off to investors (Company news, Jan 17).GLP announced the sale of three of its properties in Japan to GLP J-REIT whichlisted on the Tokyo Stock exchange last Dec (Company news, Jan 17).Japans Prime M
12、inister approved a 13.1tn supplementary budget to fund aneconomic stimulus package, the second-largest ever (AFP, Jan 16).The LDP-led government plans to extend the tax break program for mortgageholders (due to expire this year) for another 5 years (The Japan Times, Jan 15).,Asia Property WeeklyChin
13、a Volume and inventory stayed largely flat in the 3rd week of January. 19 of 32 cities with data available saw volumes decrease wow (median -3%); on a yoybasis, all 32 cities saw volumes increase (median +262%). 9 of 11 cities with data available saw prices increase wow (median +3%), on a yoy basis,
14、8 of 11 cities with data available saw prices increase (median +11%). Dec new commodity home prices increased in 54 cities, dropped in 8 cities, andremained unchanged in 8 cities. Dec resold home prices increased mom in 46 cities anddropped in 15 cities (NBS, Jan 18). National property investment to
15、taled Rmb703bn in Dec, up 11% yoy (vs. + 28% in Nov).New starts in Dec were down 9% yoy to 149mn sqm (+7% in Nov) (NBS, Jan 18). China Vanke filed a proposal to relist its B shares in HKEx, pending approval fromits shareholders and related regulatory authorities. Its A/B shares will resumetrading on
16、 Jan 21 in the A-share market (Company news, Jan 18). Some joint-stock commercial banks are considering increasing lending quotas toproperty developers in 2013 amid real estate market recovery (HKEJ, Jan 18). Since Jan 1, almost 10 Chinese real estate companies listed in Hong Kong,including Agile, K
17、aisa, Country Garden, Hopson, Shimao, and Guangzhou R&Fhave launched financing plans and raised nearly HKD41.5 bn (Soufun, Jan 18).India/Singapore Lodha Groups 650-unit residential development, Blue Moon at Worli, received morethan 1,000 applications, representing Rs. 40 bn of sales (The Business St
18、andard, Jan National Development Minister Khaw Boon Wan highlighted that about 200,000 newhomes (80,000 private properties, 10,000 ECs and 110,000 HDB flats) will be completedby 2016 (Business Times, Jan 19). More than 210 units were sold at Q Bay Residences at Tampines at an ASP of S$985 psfppr fro
19、m an originally planned price of S$1,050 psf ppr (Channel NewsAsia, Jan 18). Developers sold 1,410 units in Dec 2012, up 30% mom from a 2012 low in Nov (1,087units) (URA, Jan 15).,Major ratings/12-month target prices changes over the past weekRating Target PriceName Ticker Currency Change Current Pr
20、evious Current Previous % changeNTT Urban Development 8933.T JPY Upgrade Buy * Buy 103,000.00 75,800.00 35.9%Mori Trust Sogo REIT 8961.T JPY Upgrade Neutral Sell 692,000.00 680,000.00 1.8%,Upcoming eventsDate Market22-Jan Singapore23-Jan Singapore24-Jan Singapore,EventsMIT 3QFY13, Suntec REIT FY2012
21、 resultsCPI (Dec), CCT FY2012, Keppel Land FY2012 resultsMCT 3QFY13 results,SumitomoMitsui FudosanDA OfficeTokyo TatemonoMori Hills REITNomura Real Estate HD,8830.T8801.T8976.T8804.T3234.T3231.T,JPYJPYJPYJPYJPYJPY,DowngradeDowngradeDowngradeDowngradeNilNil,SellNeutralSellNeutralNeutralNeutral,Neutra
22、lBuyNeutralBuy *NeutralNeutral,2,350.002,120.00270,000430.00442,0001,780.00,2,210.001,900.00250,000390.00410,0001,620.00,6.3%11.6%8.0%10.3%7.8%9.9%,24-Jan24-Jan24-Jan25-Jan25-Jan,ChinaHong KongHong KongSingaporeHong Kong,HSBC Flash PMI (Jan)Deadline for expression of interests for MTRCs Light Rail T
23、in Wing Station in Tin Shui WaiExports (Dec), Fortune REIT FY2012 resultsIP (Dec), URA real estate statistics (3Q12), HDB Public Housing Data (3Q12)Tender for a residential site in Tuen Mun close,Tokyu LandMitsubishi Estate,8815.T8802.T,JPYJPY,NilNil,SellNeutral,SellNeutral,560.001,950.00,390.001,73
24、0.00,43.6%12.7%,* Conviction ListSource: Bloomberg, Datastream, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research,4,January 21, 2013Residential market snapshotRESIDENTIAL PRICES,TRANSACTION VOLUME,Asia Property Weekly,Price index (Jan-06=100),Quarter-on-Quarter,Month-on-Month
25、,Week-on-Week,Volume transacted,Month-on-Month,Week-on-Week,Index,vs end-11 Last update,12Q1,12Q2,12Q3,Oct,Nov,Dec,Jan-06 Jan-13 Jan-20,Latest,Last update,Oct,Nov,Dec,Jan-06 Jan-13 Jan-20,Greater China,Hong Kong,222,22%,13-Jan-13,+5%,+5%,+6%,+3%,+1%,+1%,-0%,+0%,n.a.,351 units/wk,20-Jan-13,+270%,-53%,-73%,-6%,+229%,+33%,MacauTaipei,160110,60%10%,30-Sep-1130-Sep-11,+5%-0%,+15%+4%,n.a.n.a.,not availablenot available,not availablenot available,
