1、Hold,Buy,Hold,Deutsche BankMarkets Research,North AmericaUnited StatesIndustrialsIntegrated Oil,IndustryUS Integrateds &Refiners,Date17 September 2012Company UpdatePaul SankeyDavid T. Clark, CFA,Questions for Management: Boston,Research Analyst(+1) 212 250-6137,Research Analyst(+1) 212 250-8163,Ener
2、gy Conference 2012Questions for ManagementDeutsche Bank is hosting its annual Energy Conference in Boston onWednesday and Thursday this week (Sept 19-20). More than three dozencompanies across the oil field services, E other key risks include accidents(fires/explosions are almost recurrent items), h
3、urricanes (which could tightenmarkets), and terrorist attacks., david-Silvio Micheloto, CFAResearch Analyst(+1) 212 250-Winnie NipResearch Associate(+1) 212 250-Companies FeaturedConocoPhillips (COP.N),USD58.21Occidental Petroleum (OXY.N),USD91.95Hess Corporation (HES.N),USD56.06,Murphy Oil (MUR.N),
4、USD56.24HollyFrontier (HFC.N),USD41.97Tesoro Corporation (TSO.N),USD40.85,HoldBuyHold,_Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourcedfrom local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Dat
5、a is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subjectcompanies. Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider th
6、is report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES ANDANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 072/04/2012.,17 September 2012Integrated OilUS Integrateds & RefinersTable Of ContentsConocoPhillips.3APLNG . 3Other Asia Pacific . 3Europe. 3Middle East/Af
7、rica/Caspian . 3“Big Three” US plays Eagle Ford/Bakken/Permian . 4Other North American Unconventional. 4Oil Sands. 4US Gulf of Mexico . 5Corporate & Cash Flow . 5Occidental .6California. 6Permian. 6Other North American Upstream . 7MENA & South America. 7Chemicals / Midstream. 8Corporate Strategy & C
8、ash Flow. 8Hess.10Bakken . 10Other US Unconventional. 10US Gulf of Mexico . 11International. 11Exploration & Project Development . 12Downstream/Midstream. 12Corporate Strategy & Cash flow . 13Murphy Oil.14Kikeh . 14Other Malaysia. 14Eagle Ford. 14Seal Heavy Oil. 14Tupper/Tupper West. 15US Gulf of Me
9、xico . 15Other Upstream . 15Exploration. 15Downstream . 17Corporate & Cash Flow . 17HollyFrontier .18Markets and Outlook . 18Refining. 18Logistics. 18Corporate . 19Tesoro.20Markets and Outlook . 20Refining. 20Retail . 21Corporate . 21Valuation and Risks .22,Page 2,Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.,17 Se
10、ptember 2012Integrated OilUS Integrateds & RefinersConocoPhillipsAPLNGShould we expect one more farm-out at APLNG? Would you go below a 30%stake, or is that the lower limit? Do you see the potential for Shell to buy-in toAPLNG and consolidate or cancel its own CBM project in Eastern Australia?Could
11、you enumerate the advantages that APLNG has versus the other CBMprojects in the region? Upstream supply, technology, commercialization, etc.What are the factors that will drive your decision on future trains at APLNG?What is the timeline for that decision and for eventual development, should ithappe
12、n?When do you expect to reach 50% completion on APLNG?Other Asia PacificWhat is the status of the Peng Lai project re-start? Government approvalspending? Expected rate of plateau project once you are allowed to restart?How is your relationship with the government following the incident andaftermath?
13、Have you started your pilot test in the Canning Basin (Australianunconventional) yet? Could you describe that asset, the potential for it in termsof eventual production and reserves, and the timetable for when it will bedeveloped and/or material to COP?Could you remind us what the timing of the Mala
14、ysian project queue looks like Gumusut, KBB, Malikai and SNP, in terms of FEED, sanction, constructionand startup?Can you give us an update on the exploration and appraisal program atPoseidon (Australian NW Shelf)? You spud your first well (Boreas-1) in 2Q, haveyou had a result there yet? Are you st
15、ill planning to drill two other wells(Zephyros-1 and Proteus-1) in 2H12?EuropeJasmine (UK North Sea) startup has been delayed from 4Q12 to 2H13. Whatwas the cause of that delay was it above or below ground issues? Anythingthat should change our view on the potential for the field (peak still expecte
16、d tobe 35kboed?)You began drilling in Poland in 2Q, have you had any results there yet?Competitors results there have been mixed so far. ExxonMobil decided to exit what is your view on the potential and economics in Poland? In the best casescenario, would Poland be able to produce meaningful volumes
17、 for you in thenext 5-7 years, or should we think of this region as a “next decade” project?Middle East/Africa/CaspianWhat is going on in Libya, are you and your Waha partners pursuing furtherdevelopment, or are your current efforts just in returning existing operations tonormal levels? What are con
18、ditions like for your team on the ground now?,Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.,Page 3,17 September 2012Integrated OilUS Integrateds & RefinersKashagan (Kazakhstan) continues to see delays and rising costs is this aproject that you would exit if you could?Are you still expecting Kashagan Phase 1 startup
19、 in 2013? Should we besurprised if first oil gets pushed back into 2014? What are your currentexpectations for initial and peak plateau production from Phase 1?When do you expect FID for Kashagan Phase 2?“Big Three” US plays Eagle Ford/Bakken/PermianYou are getting better than expected growth out of
20、 your Big Threeunconventional plays in the US. Should we expect COPs capital to continue toshift towards onshore US?You had some Eagle Ford infrastructure constraints in 2011 and early 2012,some of which have been solved (e.g., liquids takeaway). What constraintsremain gas gathering and processing?
21、Should we expect a 2013 Eagle Fordprogram similar to 2012 (ie, about 16 rigs and 180+ wells)?What trends are you seeing in Bakken economics service costs appear to bemoderating there, and rig count seems to be falling somewhat. Are you seeingimproving economics?What are your expectations for Bakken
22、crude differentials going forward? Doyou expect just a pipeline transportation cost discount to WTI, or do youforesee a wider differential corresponding to rail transportation costs and/or asurplus of production relative to takeaway capacity?Are you seeing takeaway issues/discounts for any of your p
23、roduction in thePermian? Has the fact that the pipelines and Borger were split off into PSX hurtyou in this regards? What portion of your Permian production is contracted toBorger?Other North American UnconventionalCan you talk about your pilot programs in the Niobrara, Duvernay, Wolfcampand Avalon?
24、 Would you expect any or all of these to ramp up to meaningfulproduction within the next two years? How many rigs are you now running ineach of those plays?You talked recently about your large position in the San Juan Basin and yourplay test in the Mancos Shale. When will you be drilling in the Manc
25、os, andwhen do you expect to have results you can share? If successful, would youexpect to develop within the next couple of years?You have a large amount of Horn River/Montney/Deep Basin acreage. Are youinvolved in, or in talks with, any of the Canadian LNG projects? Do you intendto hold onto your
26、Canadian nat gas acreage, or would you consider sellingsome as part of your disposal program?Oil SandsCenovus has consistently been able to accelerate development timetables andramp up rates at FCCL. Would you expect for that to continue or have most ofthe low-hanging fruit been picked?To what exten
27、t do subsequent phases at Foster Creek diminish in qualityrelative to what has been developed so far? Same question for Christina Lake ,Page 4,Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.,17 September 2012Integrated OilUS Integrateds & Refinersthough I realize that Phases A&B were NOT the best quality reservoir in
28、 thatplay but how will D through G compare to Phase C in terms of quality?Given the surging in situ project queue in Alberta (not to mention the scale ofIMO/XOMs Kearl), do you foresee any issues with regards to access to diluentover the next few years?Can you talk about your storage and infrastruct
29、ure capabilities in Canada inthe event of short-term differential blow-outs, pipeline disruptions, etc., are youand your JV partner able to manage the marketing of your dilbit so as tomitigate the impact on average realizations?Can you talk about the development plan for Narrows Lake? What is it abo
30、utNarrows Lake that makes it appropriate for Cenovuss Solvent Aided Process(SAP)? How is the reservoir quality there compared to Christina Lake?US Gulf of MexicoWhat Gulf of Mexico exploration well results should we hear about in 2H12?Bioko, Shenandoah and Coronado? Anything else?Are you still looki
31、ng at potential acquisitions in the GoM, or will you focus ondrilling up your extensive new acreage there?Corporate & Cash FlowYou are still targeting $10B of asset sales in 2012-13. Is there potential for thatnumber to be higher?Status of the Venezuelan arbitration case do you still expect the even
32、tualruling to exceed the $4.5B book value of the assets at issue? Where are we inthe process, and when should we expect to see a final ruling?Has there been meaningful interest in the Canadian assets (Surmont, Saleski,Turnbury, Clyden, et al) you put on the selling block? Are you looking tocompletel
33、y exit those projects, or would you prefer to find a partner toaccelerate development? Do you expect to sell or farm-down those assetsbefore the end of the year?What other assets have you identified as potentially for sale: Nigeria, remainingRussian assets (YK), ACG, Kazakhstan, Libya?Have you consi
34、dered splitting the company into even smaller E&P companies,say North America and International, to create businesses with the size andfocus that E&P investors are more comfortable with?Is it fair to say that you are unlikely to make a major acquisition for at least thenext couple of years?Now that
35、you are trading as a free-standing E&P, who do you think are theappropriate comparables to COP among the integrateds and E&Ps?What is the maximum net debt/capital you are willing to assume in order to doa deal or fund your capex budget?Any thoughts on the management transition and company split aftermath? Anydeliberate changes to how COP is doing business or the corporate culture?,
