1、,高盛集团,高盛集团,2013 年 1 月 22 日全球能源市场观察研究报告休斯敦，我们可能出问题了虽然 Seaway 管道扩运和 Permian 新管道即将投入运营最终将缓解库辛至美国海湾沿岸之间的运输瓶颈，但又出现了两个新问题。得克萨斯州到路易斯安那州之间缺乏管道运力可能会令休斯敦轻质原油价格相对于路易斯安那轻质原油承压。此外，直到 2014 年年中大量新管道运力投入运营之前，加拿大重油价格可能会保持在低位。,随着管道瓶颈缓解，又出现了两个新问题1 月 11 日 Seaway 管道运力增至 40 万桶/天，意味着美国原油运输系统的瓶颈将得以显著缓解。此外，考虑到新管道将把原油从 Permi
2、an 盆地直接输送到美国海湾沿岸的炼油厂，我们认为这将令库辛库存大幅紧缩，并导致未来数月布伦特-WTI 原油价差显著收窄。然而，随着这一运输瓶颈的化解，又出现了两个新问题。休斯敦轻质原油价格走势可能会与路易斯安那轻质原油相背离，但可能要到 2013 年年末至 2014 年年初时才会出现将被运至美国海湾沿岸的轻质原油最后都将到达得克萨斯海湾地区，但目前缺乏将这些原油继续向东运至路易斯安那炼油厂的管道运力。为了缓解这一新问题，壳牌正在调转其 Ho-Ho 管道方向，这最终将使得原油能够被运送至 St James，,Stefan Wieler, CFA(212) 357-7486 杰夫可瑞(212)
3、357-6801 高盛集团Samantha Dart+44(20)7552-9350 高盛国际Johan Spetz(212) 357-9225 ,但我们预计该管道将在 2013 年三季度才能全面投入运营。虽然我们明确地看到，在 Ho-Ho 管道全面运营之前，休斯敦原油价格面临着相对于路易斯安娜油价下降的风险，而且可能会因此相对于布伦特油价下降，但我们预计这种状况直到2013 年年末至 2014 年年初才会出现。加拿大重油价格可能继续承压近期 WCS 和 WTI 原油价差扩大至-40 美元/桶，体现出将重油运离加拿大的难度加大。我们预计当前加拿大重油价格面临的问题可能至少会持续到 2013 年
4、三季度。事实上，我们预计今年二季度即将进行的炼油厂检修将令当前局面雪上加霜。在最差假设下，加拿大重油价格需要降至工厂停产的水平。长期内，Flanagan South 和之后即将开通的 Keystone XL 等新管道应会更明显地缓解这一局面。投资者不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。 有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或参阅 年 1 月 22 日,全球,Houston, we might have a problemA major step in debottlenecking the US crude oil transportation system was taken o
5、n January 11when Enterprise announced that the expansion project for its Seaway pipeline was completedand the pipeline resumed flows at increased rates. The expansion increased capacity on thepipeline connecting Cushing, OK, to Freeport, TX, from 150 thousand b/d to 400 thousand b/d,which will subst
6、antially impact the Cushing balance going forward. More specifically, we expectthat Cushing inventories will shift from building in 4Q12 to being balanced in 1Q13, beforebeginning to draw sharply in 2Q13 as new pipeline capacity comes online in the Permian basin,which will allow shippers to divert P
7、ermian crude away from Cushing (see Energy Weekly:Waiting for Whiting, December 20, 2012). These developments will lead to a substantialnarrowing of Brent-WTI differentials in the coming months, in our view.However, as one transportation bottleneck disappears, two new emerge. More specifically:While
8、 the expansion of Seaway allows more crude to be shipped from Cushing to theUS Gulf Coast (USGC), pipelines that bring crude from Canada to Cushing are maxedout by now. This has led to a substantial discount of Canadian grades relative to WTI atCushing.Growing domestic supply will gradually displace
9、 light sweet crude imports into the USGC.However, while the USGC as a whole is still importing 500 thousand b/d of crude with anAPI of 35 and higher, which in theory would allow to accommodate growth in domesticproduction until the end of this year, there is a bottleneck emerging that could preventd
10、omestically produced crude arriving in Texas from reaching the refineries in Louisiana,leading to a dislocation of light sweet crude prices in Houston, TX, from those in StJames, LA, for some time in 2013.We expect the bottleneck in bringing crude from Canada to Cushing to result in continuousdisloc
11、ations of Canadian heavy grades over the next 18 months, and for the Houston to St Jamesbottleneck to potentially impact WTI-Brent spreads, particularly later in 2013 and going into 2014,consistent with our view that WTI-Brent spreads should narrow sharply by mid-year but widenagain further out, and
12、 even more significantly than we had anticipated. We therefore revise out2014 WTI forecast down by $1.50/bbl to $96.50/bbl, reflecting a Brent WTI spread of $8.50/bbl.Houston, we might have a problemEnterprise announced on January 11, 2013 that the expansion project for its Seaway pipeline wascomple
13、ted and the pipeline resumed flows at increased rates. The expansion increased capacityon the pipeline connecting Cushing, OK, to Freeport, TX, from 150 thousand b/d to 400 thousandb/d, which will substantially impact the Cushing balance going forward. However, while we expectthat the expansion of S
14、eaway, in combination with new pipeline capacity in the Permian basin,will finally allow Cushing inventories to draw, light sweet barrels could soon start overwhelmingthe US Gulf Coast.The USGC imported a little over 600 thousand b/d of light crude (API 35) in 2012, roughly 250thousand b/d below the
15、 2011 levels. This downward trend was mainly driven by rising local supplyfrom the Eagle Ford in Texas (up 350 thousand b/d year on year, including condensates) andshipments of Bakken crude via rail (up 150 thousand b/d). We expect that in 2013 light sweetimports into the USGC will decline further a
16、nd eventually come to an end in 4Q13 as productionin the Eagle Ford continues to grow strongly and the expansion of Seaway and the newly builtPermian pipelines will bring additional light sweet crude to the Coast.However, as light sweet crude floods the USGC, we expect the region to become a fragmen
17、tedcrude oil market, as local transport bottlenecks will likely lead some areas to become saturatedwith light sweet crude much earlier than others. In particular, we expect Texas to be oversuppliedsooner than Louisiana (Exhibit 1).高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,3,2013 年 1 月 22 日,Exhibit 1: Emerging transportation b
18、ottlenecks between Texas and Louisiana will likelylead to a fragmented USGC crude oil market going forwardCushingCenturionSeawayBasinWichita Falls,全球,Slaughter,Permian Express (I),Longview,Colorado CityMidland,WTG,Wortham,WTG,rail andbarges,Crane,Permian Express,Longhorn,Nederland,St James,Ho-Ho,Hou
19、ston,Port Arthur,Houma,FreeportCushing-Houston: Bottleneck being resolvedHouston-St. James: Bottleneck in the makingSource: Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.More specifically, all the incremental light sweet crude oil that is expected to come into the USGC,starting with Seaway and later with the Pe
20、rmian lines, ends up in the Texas Gulf Coast area. TheSeaway pipeline goes from Cushing to Freeport and from there to Houston. The Longhornpipeline reversal and the WTG new Permian express lines will bring crude to Nederland, while theWTG expansion will allow crude to be shipped to Longview, as show
21、n in Exhibit 1. However, thelack of incremental transport capacity to move crude further East to LA refineries will likelysupport US light sweet crude imports into Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. This is consistentwith import flows over the past couple of years, as Texas imports have been crowde
22、d out by therise in domestic production of light sweet crude oil, while imports into the rest of the USGC hasbeen more stable (Exhibit 2).高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,4,2013 年 1 月 22 日,全球Exhibit 2: While light sweet crude imports into Texas have dropped sharply as domesticproduction has increased, imports into th
23、e rest of the USGC has remained relatively stableThousand b/d8007006005004003002001000,Rest of USGC,TX imports,Source: DOE and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.To alleviate this emerging bottleneck between Texas and Louisiana, Shell is reversing its Ho-Hopipeline to flow from Houston, TX, to Houma,
24、 LA, which will ultimately allow 250 thousand b/d ofcrude to be sent to St James. The pipeline is expected to be fully reversed by 3Q13 but the firstphase of the project, which is due now, will only allow crude to be shipped from Houston toNederland, TX.Until more crude can be sent from Houston to S
25、t James, there is a risk the Houston area couldbecome overwhelmed with light sweet crude over the coming months, effectively depressing localsweet crude prices relative to LLS at St James. For the WTI-Brent spread this would mean arenewed widening of the price differential. Specifically, the Cushing
26、-Houston price differentialwould contract to pipeline tariff levels, but Houston prices would likely drop relative to Louisianaprices (LLS) and, consequently, relative to Brent prices, owing to the local oversupply of lightsweet crude. However, while we clearly see this as a risk until Ho-Ho is full
27、y reversed, we expectsuch situation to occur only by very late 2013 into early 2014. More specifically, we break downour expectations of quarterly balance changes below (Exhibit 3):- 1Q13: Domestic production continues to displace light sweet imports. Seaway lightsweet crude flows continue to displa
28、ce seaborne imports into Texas, but do not saturate theHouston region just yet.- 2Q13: Houston area starts to become oversupplied. Increased light sweet crude flowsdirectly from the Permian basin, along with higher Eagle Ford production, are only partly mitigatedby decreasing light sweet crude shipm
29、ents through the Seaway (as a portion of those flows wereoriginally coming from the Permian basin anyway). These increased flows of light sweet crude willbe enough in our view to not only to halt the remaining imports into the TX Gulf Coast, but toleave the area with excess supply. This will likely
30、lead to a drop in Houston prices relative to LLSto incentive railing of Bakken crude away from Port Arthur and into the East and West Coastinstead. We expect this price differential to be near $3.00/bbl.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,5,2013 年 1 月 22 日,全球- 3Q13: The USGC bottleneck is (temporarily) cleared. The reve
31、rsal of the Ho-Ho pipelinestarts to bring relief to the Houston region as more crude flows east to St James, helping keep theHouston light sweet crude price differential to LLS near pipeline tariff levels, at $2.50. This, in turn,will begin to displace US light sweet crude imports into the LA Gulf C
32、oast, which may push LLSunder Brent on a more sustainable level.- 4Q13: The end of light sweet crude imports into the US Gulf Coast. Continued domesticflows of light sweet crude into St James lead to a complete halt of US light sweet crude importsinto the region. Imports of light crude into the USGC
33、 have already declined from 1.3 million b/d in2010 to under 700 thousand b/d in 2012. Most of these barrels have been picked up by Europeand Asia and we expect this trend to continue. However, we believe that the capacity on Ho-Howill not be large enough to completely crowd out all rail shipments in
34、to St James, which suggeststhat the St James rail arb to the East Coast of around $3.00/bbl will persist. Houston-LLS pricedifferentials remain at pipeline tariff levels. Further, the start of Keystone South leg will likely pushCushing Houston differentials to $2.00-2.50/bbl from $3.82/bbl or potent
35、ially even lower asuncommitted light shipments on Seaway will no longer be needed.- 1Q14: Houston, we really have a problem now. Further increases in US domestic lightsweet crude production and, consequently, of crude shipments to the Houston area against fixedpipeline capacity towards St James once
36、 again leave Houston over supplied. This will likely leadto a decline in Houston light sweet prices to incentivize barge shipments to Louisiana, as well asa narrowing of light-heavy spreads in order to incentivize local refineries to run incremental lightsweet crude oil. Light-heavy differentials in
37、 the Houston area might have to narrow tounprecedented levels in order to incentivize more refiners to run more light sweet crude.Exhibit 3: WTI Brent spreads are likely to widen again in 2014 as the bottleneck betweenHouston and St James exacerbates$/bbl,WTICushingWTIHouston,WTIHoustonLLS(St.James)
38、,LLS(St.James)Brent,WTIBrent,1Q132Q133Q134Q131Q142Q143Q144Q14,13.504.002.501.002.002.002.002.00,0.003.002.502.503.003.004.004.00,0.000.000.001.503.003.003.003.00,13.507.005.005.008.008.009.009.00,Source: Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.On net, we continue to expect the WTI-Brent spread to narrow s
39、ubstantially in 1Q13 and further in2Q13 but widen in late 2013 and going into 2014 (Exhibit 3). Further, we expect LLS to remain flatrelative to Brent early in 2013, as St James continues to import light sweet crude. Once the Ho-Ho reversal is completed in 3Q13, imports of light sweet crude into Lou
40、isiana should drop and thespread between LLS and Brent should widen to reflect higher rail costs to the US East Coastrelative to the USGC, which is near $3.00/bbl.We believe that the biggest risk to this forecast over the next 12 months lies in the spreadbetween WTI at Houston and LLS at St James. W
41、hile not our base line view, unexpected largerefinery outages in the Texas Gulf Coast or stronger than expected production growth from the高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,6,2013 年 1 月 22 日,全球Eagle Ford could push the Houston balance into a more significant surplus before Ho-Ho is fullyoperational, which could potenti
42、ally keep the WTI-Brent spread wider for longer.Exhibit 4: We expect WTI-Brent spreads to narrow substantially by mid-year and widenagain further out,Unit,Forecasts,1Q13,2Q13,3Q13,4Q13,1Q14,2Q14,3Q14,4Q14,2013,2014,Crude Oil,BrentWTIWTIBrent,$/bbl$/bbl$/bbl,115.00101.50-13.50,110.00104.00-6.00,110.0
43、0105.00-5.00,105.0099.00-6.00,105.0097.00-8.00,105.0097.00-8.00,105.0096.00-9.00,105.0096.00-9.00,110.00102.50-7.50,105.0096.50-8.50,Product,RBOBHONYHB Res. Fuel OilLondon Gasoil,$/gal$/gal$/bbl$/mt,2.923.19102.00993,2.903.09100.00955,2.793.10102.00956,2.553.0097.00922,2.623.0097.00924,2.722.9897.00
44、923,2.652.9997.00924,2.543.0297.00927,2.793.10100.25956,2.633.0097.00924,Cracks,RBOBHONYHB Res. Fuel OilLondon Gasoil,$/bbl$/bbl$/bbl$/bbl,21.0032.390.5018.07,17.7025.84-4.0018.00,11.9925.21-3.0018.12,7.9727.15-2.0018.56,13.0629.170.0018.82,17.1428.070.0018.67,15.2429.711.0018.92,10.8530.661.0019.28
45、,14.6727.65-2.1318.19,14.0829.400.5018.92,Source: Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.Canadian crude grade differentials widen as Canadian heavy crude becomesincreasingly trappedDifferentials between Western Canadian Select (WCS) at Hardisty and WTI at Cushing widenedto as much as -$40.71/bbl as of Ja
46、nuary 11, 2013, reflecting increasing difficulty to ship heavycrude from Canada to the United States. In contrast, light grades such as Canadian Mixed Sweet(MSW) and Syncrude held up relatively well, with Syncrude trading flat to WTI, indicating thatthere is still adequate transportation capacity fo
47、r the lighter grades.Canadian heavy crude produced in Alberta can be shipped on several pipelines to the UnitedStates and the Canadian West Coast. The Keystone, the Express and the Enbridge mainlinehave a combined capacity of roughly 1.65 million b/d to bring crude into the United States, but allof this capacity is currently maxed out, posing a major problem for Canadian heavy crude gradesas production continues to grow.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,
