1、Deutsche BankMarkets Research,North AmericaUnited StatesIndustrialsIntegrated Oil,IndustryGlobal LNG,Date17 September 2012Industry Update,Paul SankeyResearch Analyst(+1) 212 250-Lucas Herrmann, ACAResearch Analyst(+44) 20 754-David T. Clark, CFAResearch Analyst(+1) 212 250-8163david-Silvio Micheloto
2、, CFAResearch Analyst(+1) 212 250-Winnie NipResearch Associate(+1) 212 250-Gorgon & the Global LNG MonsterSlow and steady wins the raceSince oil peaked in July 2008, the S&P500 is up 16%, the NASDAQ up 42%, E&P stocks & theOSX are down 30%. The four best-performing major oils since then: Chevron, Ex
3、xonMobil, Shelland BG. If you were asked in a pub quiz for oil analysts what the common link between the fourstocks was, you might just say LNG. Always considered a tough theme to get direct exposureto, in this note we preview Chevrons Gorgon field trip and re-present the global LNG noterecently pub
4、lished by Lucas Herrmann on our European Oil Team. We have written a global LNGnote every two years since 1998. The song remains the same: 7% growth in supply & demand tothe forecast end._Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless othe
5、rwise indicated. Prices are sourcedfrom local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subjectcompanies. Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus,investors should be aware that the firm may have
6、 a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES ANDANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 072/04/2012.,Winnie Nip,Hold,Hold,Buy,Buy,Buy,Deutsche
7、BankMarkets Research,North AmericaUnited StatesIndustrialsIntegrated Oil,IndustryGlobal LNG,Date17 September 2012Industry UpdatePaul Sankey,Gorgon & the Global LNG MonsterSlow and steady wins the raceSince oil peaked in July 2008, the S&P500 is up 16%, the NASDAQ up 42%,E&P stocks & the OSX are down
8、 30%. The four best-performing major oilssince then: Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell and BG. If you were asked in a pub quizfor oil analysts what the common link between the four stocks was, you mightjust say LNG. Always considered a tough theme to get direct exposure to, inthis note we preview Chevrons
9、Gorgon field trip and re-present the global LNGnote recently published by Lucas Herrmann on our European Oil Team. Wehave written a global LNG note every two years since 1998. The song remainsthe same: 7% growth in supply & demand to the forecast end.The world LNG market simply goes from strength to
10、 strengthWe are now in our 14th year of analysing this market, and the forecast remainsthe same: 7% annual growth, even off the higher base that has beenestablished after these years of sustained expansion. Gas into LNG nowaccounts for broadly 10% of major oil production and will rise to nearer 15%b
11、y 2020 based on current approved projects. With demand clearly exceedingsupply through 2017, we expect continued oil index pricing, despite all thequestions and pressures that global energy shifts elsewhere, notably the USshale gas revolution, have exerted. At Gorgon, for example, Chevron continuest
12、o sign long term, closely oil indexed take or pay natgas contracts for start upin 2014 and beyond: the market is structurally locking in long term oilindexation as the generations of projects roll on, and the location shifts withperceived potential realised (Papua New Guinea), lost (Venezuela, Niger
13、ia)and emerging (East Africa, US). Market growth will shift significantly towardsemerging China and India, and combined with faltering supply from founderprojects we see the need for at least 190mtpa of incremental supply over andabove that in construction. Best positioned for near and long term tre
14、nds areBG and Shell, with the greatest rate of positive change: Chevron.,Research Analyst(+1) 212 250-Lucas Herrmann, ACAResearch Analyst(+44) 20 754-David T. Clark, CFAResearch Analyst(+1) 212 250-8163david-Silvio Micheloto, CFAResearch Analyst(+1) 212 250-Research Associate(+1) 212 250-Companies F
15、eaturedChevron (CVX.N),USD117.14ExxonMobil (XOM.N),USD91.91ConocoPhillips (COP.N),USD58.30BG Group (BG.L),GBP1,291.00Royal Dutch Shell Plc(RDSb.L),GBP2,319.50,Chevrons Gorgon project remains a monster far from being tamedThe company will host a field trip to the North West Shelf for major investorsa
16、nd analysts in the last week of September, yet will still be unable to confirm afinal cost estimate on what, at around $50bn, possibly $60bn of capex, is oneof the largest private projects ever undertaken in global history. In fact, wecannot think of a larger project; the Three Gorges Dam cost aroun
17、d $23bn(officially), and was not privately financed; nor was Bostons Big Dig, includingall interest costs, costing around $22bn. In this note we re-iterate our view thatdespite the costs, Chevron (Buy $130 target price) stock discounts the risk andunder-values the long term cashflows that will be ge
18、nerated by their literallyenormous Australian gas position, of around 22.2 tcf of gross 2P reserves.Other key ideas: BG (Buy 1700p) which in our view has stolen a march on itspeers at Sabine Pass and whose forward options look well placed on the costcurve. With 40% of its value and near 30% of its p
19、roduction LNG related, it isthe outstanding LNG play, in our view. Shells (Buy 2475p) unparalleled supplyoptions combined with its relationships (not least with CNPC) look good. Mostpositive rate of change, Chevron. Risks above all are Asian demand, notablyfrom pandemic or war._Deutsche Bank Securit
20、ies Inc.All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourcedfrom local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subjectcompanies. Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with compa
21、nies covered in its research reports. Thus,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES ANDANALYST CERTIFICATIONS
22、 ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 072/04/2012.,17 September 2012Integrated OilGlobal LNGTable Of ContentsGlobal LNG and Gorgon . 3The $60bn behemoth project of the $225bn company?. 3Chevron and Gorgon. 4What is Gorgon specifics . 5History of Australian LNG and Gorgon. 6North West Shelf LNG . 7Gorg
23、on exploration, reserves, and participation . 9Gorgon development, contracts, pricing and production. 10Gorgon capex and costs; value and IRR . 12Wheatstone LNG . 16Impact on Chevrons Volumes and Cashflow . 17Gorgon and Global LNG . 23LNG - Key to the rebuild at Big Oil . 23Underlying growth augment
24、ed by new demand centres . 25LNG supply to 2025 many horses but several will fall . 30US exports what should we expect? . 35US LNG exports the chance for the arbitrageur to rejuvenate . 38Where to price - Oil linkage to remain but with a slice of Hub?. 40An attractive end market offering strong grow
25、th potential . 41The Companies: Overview . 44Comparing and contrasting the LNG majors 2017 vs. 2012 . 44Comparing and contrasting the LNG majors Side by Side . 45Chevron: From nowhere to industry major . 46ExxonMobil: The ultimate Qatari base load . 48ConocoPhillips . 50BG: Building out upstream; re
26、juvenating downstream . 52BP: Fallen behind . 54Shell: Cash flow to near double by 2017 . 56Total SA: Strong and steady growth but options look challenged . 58Appendix A: US exports and European gas. 60Appendix B: US supplier economics . 63Sabine Pass - what does it tell us about capacity charge fle
27、x?. 63Appendix C: Shipping in brief . 65Those relying on short term charters risk losing upside . 65Appendix D: Portfolios & options . 66Chevron Staggering growth to come but very narrow focus . 66Exxon Building out from its Qatar dominated base. 67ConocoPhillips . 68BG Group Expanding position, eas
28、t facing options. 69Shell Footprint dwarfs peers, as do options . 70BP Broad legacy position but limited growth potential . 71Total A decade of reinforcement now slows. Difficult options . 72Sector Investment Thesis. 73Outlook . 73Valuation . 73Risks . 73,Page 2,Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.,YTD,SLB
29、,OSX,COP,DVN,WTI,CVX,APC,OXY,17 September 2012Integrated OilGlobal LNGGlobal LNG and GorgonThe $60bn behemoth project of the $225bn company?Since oil peaked in June 2008, the S&P500 is up 16%, the NASDAQ up 42%, E&Pstocks & the OSX are down 30%. Only four major oils show positive performancesince th
30、en: Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell and BG. If you were asked in a pub quiz for oilanalysts what the common link between the four stocks was, you might just say LNG.Always considered a tough theme to get direct exposure to, in this note we previewChevrons Gorgon field trip and re-present the global LNG n
31、ote recently published byLucas Herrmann on our European Oil Team. We have written a global LNG note everytwo years since 1998. The song remains the same: 7% growth in supply & demand tothe forecast end.Figure 1: Price Performance YTD vs Since oil peaked in 2008,40%,VLO( 6%,60%),Refiners Total(75%,62
32、%),30%PXD,20%10%0%-10%,NatGas,PBRCHK,ECASU ENIHES,SWNE&P TotalTOTMUR APA STLBPNFXCNQ,EOG,S&P 500RRCXOMMRONBLRDSBG,NASDAQ,-20%-30%-40%,UPL,REP,-100%,-80%,-60%,-40%,-20%,0%,20%,40%,60%,Since Oil Peaked (2008)Source: Deutsche Bank, FactSetWe assert that demand strength will pressure prices to remain oi
33、l-indexed; we see agood market for US LNG exports but by no means an unlimited one, and we see keywinners much in the way that we see the market: the song remains the same. BG,Shell, Chevron with a better rate of change than ExxonMobil. We do not coverCheniere, but all credit to a company that was f
34、irst mover in the US LNG import boom that never happened to be the first mover in the US LNG export boom. Revolutions dohappen. Logical planning can prove to be totally wrong-headed when they do occur.Speed of action and ability to embrace change are the keys. Why do we think refiningstocks can stil
35、l work? Because investors continue to look to the pre-revolution past, notthe new future, of cheap US energy in such abundance, that exports are the theme.,Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.,Page 3,17 September 2012Integrated OilGlobal LNGChevron and GorgonWe believe that no company has a relatively larg
36、er long term Brent oil-levered resourcepotential than Chevron. Within that portfolio, the largest undeveloped potential hasbeen in North West Australia, where exploration success that dates back to the 1960shas, over time, become a massive undeveloped gas base, relatively proximate to theenergy-short markets of Asia.Figure 2: 2P Reserves: total gas & Australia gas vs. total oil+gas,250,000,CVX gas makes up 43% of total oil & gas reserves,
