1、很好的字幕100:00:03,536 00:00:07,267Man We have signs of very greatchanges occurring on the planet.200:00:08,108 00:00:10,042Man 2 Everything happened so fast.300:00:11,111 00:00:14,740Man 3 Theres creeks drying upthat have never dried up in my lifetime.400:00:15,615 00:00:18,675Man 4 Weve got a forest h
2、erethats already at the edge.500:00:20,120 00:00:22,611Woman Were goinginto uncharted territory.600:00:23,523 00:00:25,753Narrator Our pianetis at a crossroads.700:00:27,127 00:00:31,223Giobal warming isnt out of control,but it soon could be.800:00:32,132 00:00:34,191The warning signs are all around
3、 us.900:00:35,402 00:00:38,496This is the challengeof climate change.1000:00:40,640 00:00:43,768What can we do about global warming?1100:00:44,744 00:00:47,235What wiil happento the Earth if we dont?1200:00:48,581 00:00:50,515The temperature is rising.1300:00:50,617 00:00:52,608Each degree is critic
4、al.1400:00:53,253 00:00:55,187Various voices Just one degree.1500:00:55,255 00:00:57,382- One degree warmer.- Two degrees.1600:00:57,490 00:01:01,517- Threshold is about three degrees.- Three to four degrees of warming.1700:01:01,628 00:01:03,789Youre startingto look at four degrees.1800:01:03,863 0
5、0:01:06,423Three degrees,four degrees, five degrees.1900:01:06,533 00:01:10,128Six degrees is almost unimaginable.2000:01:22,649 00:01:24,708Narrator Imagine the 21st century,2100:01:24,818 00:01:27,685if global warming accelerates.2200:01:32,392 00:01:34,553Where does the next super-storm hit,2300:
6、01:36,463 00:01:39,296the next scorching heat wave,2400:01:41,401 00:01:42,732the next catastrophe,2500:01:44,237 00:01:47,331as the world warms degree by degree?2600:01:49,409 00:01:51,536The debate has ended.2700:01:52,445 00:01:55,278Scientists around the globeagree we now live2800:01:55,381 00:0
7、1:59,442in a world warmer by almostone full degree Celsius.2900:02:01,788 00:02:05,417Tracking the Earths vital signsis an armada.3000:02:06,359 00:02:08,691Thousands of ships at sea.3100:02:09,562 00:02:12,429Tens of thousands of stations on land.3200:02:12,932 00:02:15,696Satellites monitoring fro
8、m space.3300:02:18,638 00:02:22,335Scientists feed the data intothe most advanced computer models3400:02:22,442 00:02:24,603to calculatewhat it means for our future.3500:02:28,314 00:02:30,839The predictions are alarming.3600:02:33,319 00:02:36,413In four decades,glaciers in the Himalayas,3700:02:36
9、,489 00:02:40,721the source of waterfor millions, could be gone.3800:02:41,561 00:02:43,529Within 50 years,3900:02:43,630 00:02:46,861Greeniands melting ice sheetcould be unstoppable.4000:02:48,768 00:02:52,329By the end of this century,the Amazon rainforest,4100:02:52,405 00:02:55,238home to halfth
10、e worlds biodiversity,4200:02:55,341 00:02:57,775could wither to an arid savannah.4300:03:01,848 00:03:04,840Were on the brinkof one degree warmer,4400:03:04,951 00:03:08,284hotter than its beenin thousands of years.4500:03:11,524 00:03:15,358A temperature rise between1 and 11 degrees Fahrenheit4600
11、:03:15,461 00:03:17,759is possible over the next century.4700:03:18,932 00:03:22,663Each degree meansa radically different future.4800:03:25,371 00:03:28,704In some parts of the world,the first signs of global warming4900:03:28,808 00:03:30,867may be arriving with a vengeance.5000:03:33,513 00:03:37
12、,540In Australia, bushfires area natural part of the ecosystem,5100:03:37,617 00:03:39,812especially in drought years.5200:03:41,754 00:03:44,348But climate changemay be pushing conditions5300:03:44,390 00:03:46,381from bad to worse.5400:03:49,495 00:03:52,430Australias east coast is a tinderbox.550
13、0:04:01,241 00:04:03,334They called it black Christmas.5600:04:03,409 00:04:05,070Siren5700:04:07,447 00:04:11,508Now after a decade of drought,the danger is growing.5800:04:13,486 00:04:16,785Man This year we had firesin Victoria that were very intense.5900:04:16,856 00:04:18,721We fought themfor m
14、onths and months.6000:04:18,791 00:04:21,021It is scary,and the more the bush dries out,6100:04:21,294 00:04:24,491were getting fires happenin areas we never had them before.6200:04:25,999 00:04:30,436Man Once the intensity of that fireis so high that its in the treetops,6300:04:30,503 00:04:32,437n
15、o amount of water is enough6400:04:32,505 00:04:35,099to actually cool the fire downenough to put it out.6500:04:39,879 00:04:43,007Narrator Current data showthe average global temperature6600:04:43,116 00:04:46,347has already risen1.5 degrees Fahrenheit.6700:04:47,120 00:04:50,988Victoria, Australi
16、assecond most populous state,6800:04:51,090 00:04:55,527is in the grip of one of the worstbushfire seasons in recorded history.6900:04:57,430 00:05:00,024For many, these firesare a warning,7000:05:00,833 00:05:04,667a wake-up call aboutwhat climate change can do.7100:05:05,471 00:05:08,838Man Less t
17、han a degree of warmingis what weve so far experienced.7200:05:08,941 00:05:11,432And that is enoughto transform Australia,7300:05:11,511 00:05:14,071which was alreadythe driest continent on Earth,7400:05:14,347 00:05:17,646into a land mass which has lostso much of its water7500:05:17,717 00:05:21,9
18、49that theyre currently experiencingthe worst drought for 1,000 years.7600:05:23,623 00:05:26,922Narrator That drought has driventhe fires out of the bush7700:05:27,026 00:05:30,689and into the front yardsof thousands of Australians.7800:05:32,098 00:05:34,658Man Get in. Get in, mate.7900:05:35,101
19、00:05:37,797Weather reports are nowa matter of life or death.8000:05:37,870 00:05:39,132Man Whats happening?8100:05:39,405 00:05:40,895Got a fire five kilometers away.8200:05:41,007 00:05:43,032We just want to know what to do.8300:05:43,609 00:05:46,737Narrator If the wind shifts,families have to ac
20、t fast.8400:05:47,580 00:05:50,879Woman The fire engines coming now,so what Im going to have to do8500:05:50,950 00:05:54,511is get all the kids togetherand come to your place.8600:05:55,555 00:05:57,955Im a bit ipset because Robreally wants to stay.8700:05:58,057 00:06:01,584Narrator In some Sydney
21、neighborhoods, its an awful choice:8800:06:02,595 00:06:04,062Stay and fight the fire8900:06:04,130 00:06:07,031or ieave and hope your homewill be there when you return.9000:06:07,100 00:06:11,594Im gonna have to call you back.Its a bit of fluster. OK. See ya, Mum.9100:06:11,671 00:06:14,105A house
22、is a house.If we lost it, we lost it,9200:06:14,207 00:06:16,107but you know, if you lose a loved one.9300:06:16,175 00:06:18,166It was our first house,we just bought it,9400:06:18,444 00:06:21,140so he was going to do everythinghe could to save it.9500:06:24,917 00:06:27,442Man My wife leftwith the
23、 most important things9600:06:27,553 00:06:28,884and it was up to me to make sure9700:06:28,955 00:06:31,788that it was going to allbe there when she come back.9800:06:34,127 00:06:35,594Bye, hero.9900:06:35,661 00:06:37,629Ill call you from yourmoms.10000:06:37,663 00:06:38,687You take it easy.1010
24、0:06:38,798 00:06:41,460No worries. You get out of here.Ill see you later.10200:06:41,534 00:06:43,092See you.10300:06:51,210 00:06:53,576Narrator Bushfires are already bad.10400:06:54,113 00:06:58,174Climate scientists predict in the nextthree decades, theyll get worse.10500:06:59,018 00:07:00,815A
25、nd it doesnt end there.10600:07:02,889 00:07:04,880Man Global warming doesnt just mean10700:07:04,991 00:07:07,186the slow increasein average temperatures.10800:07:07,427 00:07:10,453It completely changes the waythe Earths system operates,10900:07:10,530 00:07:13,761which is why we can see droughtsi
26、n one place, floods in another,11000:07:13,833 00:07:17,030or even a succession of droughtand flood in the same location.11100:07:17,870 00:07:20,532Narrator National Geographicauthor Mark Lynas11200:07:20,640 00:07:23,040spent years compiling datafrom climate models11300:07:23,476 00:07:25,842to un
27、derstand how eachdegree of warming11400:07:25,912 00:07:27,937could threaten the planet.11500:07:28,047 00:07:30,538Lynas Its difficultfor people to visualize11600:07:30,616 00:07:32,550the future impacts of global warming.11700:07:32,618 00:07:34,779Its something I reallywanted to try and do,11800:
28、07:34,887 00:07:37,447to help people visualize the reality,11900:07:37,557 00:07:39,855because it isnt actually intuitive12000:07:39,926 00:07:42,019that the emissions from your car exhaust12100:07:42,094 00:07:46,656are going to be melting a glacierin the Himalayas in 50 years time.12200:07:46,732
29、00:07:49,895Narrator Whiie experts estimatethe average temperature12300:07:50,002 00:07:52,095could rise up to six degrees Celsius,12400:07:52,205 00:07:54,173or nearly 11 degrees Fahrenheit,12500:07:54,240 00:07:58,267over the next 100 years,the future isnt set in stone.12600:07:59,579 00:08:01,979
30、Even a small shiftin the Earths temperature,12700:08:02,081 00:08:06,074just six degrees,can have extreme consequences.12800:08:15,661 00:08:18,095Lynas Six degrees shiftfrom one day to the next12900:08:18,164 00:08:21,759is the sort of thing that we expectwith normal weatherfluctuations.13000:08:21
31、,834 00:08:25,600If its six degrees hotter tomorrow,I might just be wearing some shorts.13100:08:26,005 00:08:29,702Six degrees in terms of a globalaverage change, six degrees colder,13200:08:29,775 00:08:32,266is the difference between nowand the last ice age,13300:08:32,512 00:08:35,03718,000 year
32、s agowhen the ice sheets themselves13400:08:35,181 00:08:37,649advanced to justthe edge of Oxford,13500:08:37,717 00:08:41,778and in places the ice capwas more than a mile thick.13600:08:41,888 00:08:46,325Narrator Just six degrees of coolingtransformed the Earth into an ice age.13700:08:48,728 00:0
33、8:50,719Imagine it six degrees hotter.13800:08:52,632 00:08:55,897The very earliest changes wouldstart high above the Earth.13900:08:58,037 00:09:00,028The atmosphereis our buffer zone14000:09:00,139 00:09:02,733between the planets surfaceand outer space.14100:09:04,277 00:09:07,007A small percentag
34、eare the greenhouse gases,14200:09:08,681 00:09:12,117a cocktail of water vapor,carbon dioxide, methane,14300:09:12,184 00:09:15,085nitrous oxide and ozone.14400:09:17,657 00:09:19,784They are like a dome over the planet,14500:09:19,859 00:09:22,828retaining just enoughof the suns reftected energy14
35、600:09:22,895 00:09:25,363to maintain temperaturesthat support life.14700:09:28,868 00:09:32,702As the amounts of those gases increase,they trap more heat14800:09:32,772 00:09:36,037and can radically affectthe climate all over the planet.14900:09:41,047 00:09:44,380For the last 250 years,greenhouse
36、emissions have soared15000:09:44,617 00:09:48,644as we find more and more waysto use more and more energy.15100:09:57,897 00:10:01,230CO2 is the hidden price we pay.15200:10:02,802 00:10:05,794Carbon dioxide risesinto the atmosphere15300:10:05,905 00:10:09,306from the energy that powersall our moder
37、n conveniences.15400:10:11,210 00:10:13,678Its literally in the air we breathe.15500:10:14,814 00:10:20,343There are now 383 carbon dioxidemolecules out of every million.15600:10:21,120 00:10:25,614It seems miniscuie,but as the amount of CO2 rises,15700:10:25,725 00:10:29,126so does the average temp
38、eratureall over the planet.15800:10:30,963 00:10:36,401Man Doubling of CO2 isa guarantee for global disaster.15900:10:36,636 00:10:39,901The dangerous levelis about 450 parts per million,16000:10:39,972 00:10:42,440and were already up to 383.16100:10:43,075 00:10:47,307Additional global warmingof on
39、e ortwo degrees Celsius16200:10:47,947 00:10:50,142is a very big deal.16300:10:50,716 00:10:54,015Man All were doing is sayingwhat we think our best estimate is,16400:10:54,120 00:10:56,884what will happen if we carry onat the rate were going.16500:10:56,989 00:10:58,388So what you can do is to lay
40、out16600:10:58,491 00:11:00,925a number of possible picturesof the future16700:11:00,993 00:11:03,223and hope people will selectthe right one.16800:11:03,896 00:11:07,855Narrator Selecting the right scenariomeans lowering CO2 emissions.16900:11:08,801 00:11:11,429Experts agree it wont be an easy fix
41、,17000:11:11,671 00:11:13,229but theres reason for hope.17100:11:15,007 00:11:17,840Some potential solutionsare already in place,17200:11:18,678 00:11:21,442many others still on the drawing board.17300:11:24,350 00:11:26,318How will we respond?17400:11:27,687 00:11:32,124What will the pianet look li
42、keif its warmer by one degree,17500:11:32,191 00:11:36,218two degrees, three degrees or more?17600:11:36,929 00:11:39,489Are we willing to take that risk?17700:11:42,368 00:11:45,360If the worid warmsby one degree,17800:11:45,438 00:11:48,373the Arctic is ice-freefor half the year,17900:11:48,474 00
43、:11:51,910opening the legendarynorthwest passage for ships.18000:11:53,279 00:11:56,976Tens of thousands of homesaround the Bay of Bengal are ftooding.18100:11:58,284 00:12:00,946Hurricanes begin hittingthe South Atlantic.18200:12:02,755 00:12:04,552Severe droughts in the western U.S.18300:12:04,790
44、 00:12:07,350Cause shortagesin global grain and meat markets.18400:12:09,395 00:12:13,195This could be ourworldplus-one degree.18500:12:16,268 00:12:19,760Lynas At one degreeadditional warming to today,18600:12:19,839 00:12:22,399were likely to seethe emergence of new deserts18700:12:22,475 00:12:24
45、,875in the western halfof the United States.18800:12:24,944 00:12:28,209From Texas in the southright up to the Canadian border18900:12:28,280 00:12:31,943is in danger of becomingnew hyper-arid areas19000:12:32,051 00:12:34,281where really no cropscan be grown at all.19100:12:36,922 00:12:40,187Narra
46、tor In western Nebraska,ranchers depend on spring rains19200:12:40,292 00:12:43,489that arent very dependable these days.19300:12:46,932 00:12:50,368Cattleman Bruce Whoeler needs4,000 gallons of water every day19400:12:50,503 00:12:52,300for his herd to survive.19500:12:53,873 00:12:57,001Whoeler We
47、ve been hauling water herefor about 20, 25 days,19600:12:57,109 00:12:59,304and sometimes twice a day.19700:12:59,378 00:13:01,141Looks like another dry tank.19800:13:02,081 00:13:04,174Narrator After seven yearsof drought,19900:13:04,283 00:13:06,513reservoirs areat their lowest in a century.20000:13:08,454 00:13:11,321
