1、COCOMO SCORM Interactive Courseware Project Cost Modeling,Roger Smith & Lacey Edwards SPARTA Inc. Orlando, Florida and Lacey.E,COCOMO-SCORM Project: Proposed Solution,“Every complex project requires project managers and sponsors to calculate the expected level of effort, duration, and cost of the p
2、roject. Developing web-based content to the Sharable Content Object Reference Model (SCORM) is complex enough that an algorithm is necessary to assist both the government and developers in estimating the size of the project. SPARTA and Anteon propose to create an interactive courseware estimation to
3、ol based on widely used Instructional Systems Design (ISD) methodologies and on the principles contained in the well-established and widely accepted COCOMO II model for software project estimation.”,Proposed Technical Concept:,Interactive Courseware Estimation Tool,Development and Test Cost Estimate
4、s,COCOMO ISD,Project Description,Create an interactive project estimation tool for ISD/SCORM content Algorithmic foundation for the tool is the COCOMO II algorithm developed for software projects by the research team at the University of Southern California and led by Barry Boehm ISD methodology est
5、imated will be the ADDIE model developed at Florida State University and adopted by the U.S. Armed Services Resulting algorithm and tools will estimate the person-months required to create a SCORM conformant learning product Dollar costs can be derived outside of the model by applying industry or sp
6、ecific company labor rates,COCOMO Model Family,COQUALMO 1998,COCOMO 81 1981,COPROMO 1998,COSoSIMO 2004,Legend: Model has been calibrated with historical project data and expert (Delphi) data Model is derived from COCOMO II Model has been calibrated with expert (Delphi) data,COCOTS 2000,COSYSMO 2002,
7、CORADMO 1999,iDAVE 2003,COPLIMO 2003,COPSEMO 1998,COCOMO II 2000,DBA COCOMO 2004,COINCOMO 2004,Security Extension 2004,Costing Secure System 2004,Software Cost Models,Software Extensions,Other Independent Estimation Models,Dates indicate the time that the first paper was published for the model,COCO
8、MO II Tool Example,Users Perspective,COCOMO II Modeling Methodology,ADDIE Process,Job/Task AnalysisNeeds AnalysisLearning AnalysisSituation AnalysisTechnical Analysis,Design PlanInstructional Media Design ReportSCORM Plan,Storyboards ProgrammingMultimedia Testing,TrialsPilot tests,Reliability Valida
9、tion Training Plan,COSCOMO Drivers (27 Input Variables),Size Source Lines of Code (SLOC) Design Modification (DM) Code Modification (CM) Integration (IM) Assessment (AA) Understanding (SU) Unfamiliarity (UNFAM) Scale Drivers Development Flexibility (FLEX) Process Maturity (PMAT) Precedentedness (PRE
10、C) Arch/Risk Resolution (RESL) Team Cohesion (TEAM) Product Effort Multipliers (EM) Required Reliability (RELY) Product Complexity (CPLX) Required Reuse (RUSE) Documentation (DOCU),Platform EM Platform Volatility (PVOL) Bandwidth (BAND) Personnel EM Senior Capability (SCAP) Developer Capability (DCA
11、P) Personnel Continuity (PCON) Applications Experience (APEX) Platform Experience (PLEX) Development Tools Experience (DTEX) Project EM Lifecycle Tools (LIFE) Multisite Development (SITE) Required Development Schedule (SCED),Quantitative Size Variables,EM Effect on Project,Course Hours,Project Cost,
12、15 Effort Multipliers Set to Nominal,Qualitative Project Variables,Nominal/Standard Levels,Effort Multipliers,Scale Drivers,EM Effect on Project,Course Hours,Nom. Cost,15 Effort Multipliers Other Than Nominal,Est. Cost,Data Collection Form,(see Excel file for entire form),COSCOMO Estimates,* Survey
13、was not completed. All remaining variables were estimated.,Defense Nuclear Weapons School,Building PRED(30) for COSCOMO,0%,% Variance of Estimated Value,-30%,+30%,Total Project Cost (PM),DNWS -3.8%,EHA -20%,ALC +333%,6,24,78,Reliability = PRED(30),Reliability of COCOMO family of models is often meas
14、ured by the percentage of test cases that it will estimate within 30% of the actual project costs e.g. If a project requires 300 person-months to complete, then its PRED(30) range would be (210 to 390) If the model estimates 70% of its test cases within this range then the models PRED(30) = 70% COCO
15、MO Family Model Levels COCOMO II: PRED(30) = 64% COSYSMO: PRED(30) = 56% COSCOMO: PRED(30) = unknown at this time,Delphi Calibration Survey,Using Delphi Method to gather independent opinions about the level of effort associated with each setting on each variable. Collect individual responses Calcula
16、te group average Present averages to each person and allow them to change their responses if they would like Convene group work session to settle on acceptable values Round 1 of Delphi Conducted Via Private Survey Round 2 Conducted in Seminar Form,Conclusion,COCOMO II has been modified to include va
17、riables that are important to SCORM courseware developers Variable weights are being adjusted by Delphi surveys of experts Model is being calibrated through the collection of historical project informationCurrent results show that this approach is feasible It is to early to determine the degree of success that will be achievedHistorical project data collection is essential, but it is also very difficult to get access and cooperation from the people with this information Have currently collected data on 7 projects Targeting 40+ projects to calibrate the model appropriately,
