1、Chinas customized furniture industry though facing headwinds from a property downcycle and intensifying competition, especially in the furniture mall channel offers a significant consolidation opportunity in a vast, yet fragmented, market. Going forward, we expect industry leaders to gradually, but
2、consistently, gain share from smaller players. We expect industry leaders, which enjoy manufacturing and distribution advantages, to benefit from the rising portion of furbished new properties, accelerating their market share concentration. Developers channel: Long-term revenue opportunity for leadi
3、ng players According to All View Cloud (AVC), c. 4.6mn units of furbished new properties were sold in 2018, 23% of the total new properties sold. The number is expected to rise to 6.1mn by 2020E based on the 13th Five-Year Plan. In comparison, Suofeiya, a leading wardrobe manufacturer, only had 0.6m
4、n customers in 2018. Hence, we believe capturing even a small portion of this growing segment will translate into considerable growth for furniture companies. Furthermore, we expect stringent requirements on product specifications, delivery time and payment period will mainly benefit large players w
5、ith superior financial and distributor resources. Initiating on two market leaders; reiterate Buy on Suofeiya with 34% upside We expect Oppein, a dominant player in kitchen cabinets and the developers channel, to grow revenue/net profit by 16%/13% CAGRs in 2019E-20E, driven by: 1) category expansion
6、; 2) per-store sales growth; and 3) continued investment in manufacturing expansion. However, with the shares trading in line (6% downside) with our 12-month discounted EV/EBITDA-based target price of Rmb82.0, we initiate at Neutral. Guangzhou Shangpin has differentiated itself with more direct-owne
7、d and shopping mall based stores, and a large revenue contribution from outsourced products. However, given relatively less differentiation in its furniture products, we expect revenue growth to decelerate sharply in 2019E, posing downside risk to the currently high valuation. We initiate at Sell wi
8、th a 12-m discounted EV/EBITDA-based target price of Rmb49.0, implying 21% downside. We continue to favor Suofeiya for its industry-leading manufacturing capabilities and distributor network. Reiterate Buy with 34% upside potential. Nicolas Yi +86(21)2401-8922 | Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company L
9、imitedChina Consumer Durables Customized furniture: Setting the table Initiate Oppein at Neutral, Shangpin at Sell; reiterate Buy on Suofeiya19 December 2018 | 8:06PM CSTGoldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware
10、 that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to Analyst
11、s employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S. 每日免费获取报告1、每日微信群内分享 5+最新重磅报告；2、每日分享当日 华尔街日报 、金融时报；3、每周分享 经济学人4、每月汇总 500+份当月重磅报告（增值服务）扫一扫二维码关注公号回复 ： 研究报告加入“起点财经”微信群。PM Summary: Initiating on two customized furniture manufacturers; long-term oppo
12、rtunity from developers channel 3 Developers channel - The long-term growth avenue 6 Oppein: A kitchen cabinet leader and expanding into other segments, valuation seems fair, initiate at Neutral 10 Guangzhou Shangpin: High valuation not justified by differentiated business model, initiate at Sell 25
13、 Suofeiya - Attractive valuation for an industry leader, reiterate Buy 38 Disclosure Appendix 41 19 December 2018 2Goldman Sachs China Consumer DurablesTable of Contents PM Summary: Initiating on two customized furniture manufacturers; long-term opportunity from developers channel Customized furnitu
14、re manufacturers primarily sell through retail channels in China. Recently they have been paying more attention to the developers channel amid property demand slowdown and intensifying competition in retail channels. According to AVC, only 23% of new properties sold were furbished in China in 1H18.
15、Per the 13th Five-Year Plan, the ratio is expected to rise to 30% in 2020E driven by a combination of favorable government policies and differentiated competition strategies especially from leading real estate developers. In our view, such penetration avenues will present a significant revenue oppor
16、tunity and primarily benefit leading furniture manufacturers with better financial and distributor resources. We expect Suofeiya and Oppein, the two key players in the segment, to be the major beneficiaries of the trend given their continuous investment in manufacturing capabilities and established
17、distributor network. Suofeiya (Buy; 12-m TP: Rmb24.4) We continue to favor Suofeiya as a major beneficiary of a structural growth in customized furniture industry, due to its leading manufacturing capabilities and distributor network. Although, industry is facing headwinds from a short-term property
18、 downcycle (for details, refer to China Real Estate: Slower property investment in 2019; consolidation to accelerate, published on November 23, 2018) and intensified competition, we expect Suofeiya to mitigate the growth headwinds by launching more quality products and improving competitiveness of i
19、ts distributors by both providing more financial support and replacing less efficient distributors. Moreover, we expect developers channel to contribute more to revenue growth in coming years as the company continues cooperating with large developers and investing in manufacturing facilities. We exp
20、ect revenue/net profit CAGR of 19%/16% in 2019E-20E. With the stock currently trading at 15X 2019E P/E (vs. its 6-year median 12-m forward P/E of 27X), we reiterate Buy on the stock. Oppein (Neutral; 12-m TP: Rmb82.0) Oppein - At a glance The largest player in China kitchen cabinet market by revenue
21、 size: The pany derived Rmb5.4bn revenue from kitchen cabinet business in 2017, greater than the sum of No.2-No.4 listed players. Recently Oppein has been leveraging its strong brand in kitchen cabinet segment to expand into other product categories such as wardrobe, wooden door, etc. One of the str
22、ongest distributor networks characterized by both extensive 2.reach and efficiency. By 1H18, the company had 6,711 stores across different product categories and tiers of cities, the largest among all competitors. The company has the highest per store sales for kitchen cabinet and has been ramping u
23、p quickly in the wardrobe segment as of 1H18. 19 December 2018 3Goldman Sachs China Consumer DurablesA leader in developers market. Oppein derived Rmb964mn from the developers 3.channel in 2017, highest among its listed competitors. The company has been partnered with leading developers for a long t
24、ime and has developed an experienced network distributors for developers to expand the business and alleviate cash flow risks. Investment thesis We expect Oppeins revenue to be driven by both new product category penetration and channel expansion. We expect Oppein to leverage its strong brand and di
25、stributor network in kitchen cabinet segment to drive up sales in other products such as wardrobes. On the other hand, we expect Oppein to continue its expansion in both retail and developers channel, utilizing its strong distributor network. However, we expect the margins to gradually trend down du
26、e to higher competition and increasing share of developer revenue. Factoring in the above, we expect revenue/net profit CAGR of 16%/13% in 2019E-20E. Our 12-m target price is derived by applying a 12X exit multiple to 2021E EBITDA and discounting back to 2018E at 9% COE. With 6% downside to our TP,
27、we initiate on Oppein with a Neutral rating. Guangzhou Shangpin (Sell; 12-m TP: Rmb49.0) Shangpin - At a glance A Leading customized furniture manufacturer with a unique channel strategy: 1.We expect Shangpin to derive c. 39% of its total revenue in 2018E from directly-owned stores, vs. only 2%-3% f
28、or Suofeiya and Oppein. Due to the opex-intensive nature of its channel strategy, Shangpin has had much lower profitability compared to Suofeiya and Oppein. However, since late 2017, Shangpin has started focusing on an aggressive franchise-driven strategy, recruiting multiple distributors in each ci
29、ty (vs. only 1 or 2 for Suofeiya and Oppein) to drive up revenue growth. Shopping mall based store location + online marketing strategy: Shangpin has 2.over 50% of its stores in shopping malls (vs. 20% for Suofeiya), which, in our view, helps it to avoid high competition in furniture malls. The comp
30、any utilizes online marketing strategy including its own website and other platforms such as Baidu and Taobao to funnel customer traffic to its shopping mall stores. Higher contribution from outsourced products: Shangpin is expected to derive c. 3.20% of revenue from sales of outsourced products in
31、2018E based on our estimates. (vs. 4% for Suofeiya in 2018E) Investment thesis We expect Shangpins revenue growth to be driven by increasing franchise store openings and growth of outsourced products, however, at a declining pace. We expect more store closures and slower per store sales growth as ne
32、wly recruited distributors face more pressure during the industry downcycle in 2019E. On the other hand, we expect the sales growth of outsourced products to decelerate along with the sales from its customized furniture segment. On the margin side, we expect GPM to trend down 19 December 2018 4Goldm
33、an Sachs China Consumer Durablesdue to rising share of low-margin franchise revenue and outsourced products sales. Factoring in the above, we expect revenue/net profit CAGR of 18%/17% in 2019E-20E. Our 12-m target price is based on an 11X exit multiple applied to its 2021E EBITDA and discounted back
34、 to 2018E at 9% COE. With 21% downside, we initiate on Guangzhou Shangpin with a Sell rating. Exhibit 1: Global appliances, furniture and automation comp 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020EChina appliancesMidea Group 000333.SZ CNY 38.81 50.00 29% Buy 37.0 14% 14.8
35、x 12.6x 11.6x 9.8x 3.5x 3.0x 2.6x 2.3x 10.9x 8.3x 7.6x 6.2xGree Electric 000651.SZ CNY 36.80 44.00 20% Neutral 32.1 -2% 9.9x 7.8x 9.0x 8.1x 3.4x 2.7x 2.3x 1.9x 4.9x 3.5x 3.8x 3.3xHaier Electronics 1169.HK HKD 18.54 23.90 29% Buy* 6.6 12% 13.7x 12.0x 10.9x 9.6x 2.1x 1.9x 1.7x 1.5x 7.2x 6.1x 5.2x 4.2x
36、Little Swan 000418.SZ CNY 45.84 47.00 3% Neutral 4.2 15% 19.2x 18.9x 17.3x 14.3x 4.1x 3.7x 3.3x 2.9x 16.6x 15.3x 13.3x 10.5xHangzhou Robam 002508.SZ CNY 22.08 23.40 6% Neutral 3.0 7% 14.3x 13.7x 12.7x 11.9x 4.0x 3.5x 3.0x 2.7x 22.1x 9.9x 9.2x 8.2xMedian 20% 6.6 12% 14.3x 12.6x 11.6x 9.8x 3.5x 3.0x 2
37、.6x 2.3x 10.9x 8.3x 7.6x 6.2xChina furnitureSuofeiya 002572.SZ CNY 18.31 24.40 33% Buy 2.5 16% 18.6x 16.7x 14.6x 12.5x 3.8x 3.4x 3.0x 2.6x 23.8x 10.3x 8.9x 7.5xOppein 603833.SS CNY 87.67 82.00 -6% Neutral 5.3 13% 28.4x 22.0x 19.9x 17.4x 5.9x 5.0x 4.2x 3.6x 26.5x 16.1x 14.2x 12.2xGZSP 300616.SZ CNY 6
38、2.33 49.00 -21% Sell 1.8 17% 32.6x 24.4x 21.2x 17.8x 4.7x 4.2x 3.7x 3.3x 32.9x 23.2x 19.4x 14.7xMedian -6% 2.5 16% 28.4x 22.0x 19.9x 17.4x 4.7x 4.2x 3.7x 3.3x 26.5x 16.1x 14.2x 12.2xChina LED lightingOpple Lighting 603515.SS CNY 27.99 32.00 14% Neutral 3.1 12% 30.8x 24.6x 23.1x 19.5x 5.8x 5.0x 4.4x
39、3.9x 28.2x 23.9x 21.7x 17.6xMedian 14% 3.1 12% 30.8x 24.6x 23.1x 19.5x 5.8x 5.0x 4.4x 3.9x 28.2x 23.9x 21.7x 17.6xGlobal appliancesElectrolux ELUXb.ST SEK 190 208 9% Neutral 6.0 19% 9.6x 15.4x 12.2x 10.9x 2.7x 2.5x 2.3x 2.1x 6.8x 5.3x 5.4x 5.0xDaikin 6367.T JPY 12,240 15,000 23% Neutral 31.6 3% 23.2
40、x 18.9x 19.3x 17.9x 3.2x 2.8x 2.5x 2.2x 10.0x 10.7x 10.0x 9.0xPanasonic 6752.T JPY 1,068 1,800 69% Buy 21.9 6% 16.6x 10.6x 9.6x 9.3x 1.6x 1.4x 1.3x 1.2x 4.6x 5.3x 3.3x 3.0xArcelik ARCLK.IS TRY 15.25 19.90 30% Neutral 1.9 50% 12.2x 15.5x 8.9x 6.9x 1.5x 1.4x 1.3x 1.1x 10.3x 7.7x 6.0x 5.1xMedian 27% 13
41、.9 13% 14.4x 15.4x 10.9x 10.1x 2.1x 2.0x 1.8x 1.6x 8.4x 6.5x 5.7x 5.0xGlobal automationFanuc 6954.T JPY 16,850 21,000 25% Neutral 28.8 -11% 25.6x 18.0x 18.8x 22.6x 2.4x 2.2x n.a. n.a. 16.0x 15.4x 11.0x 11.3xYaskawa 6506.T JPY 2,977 3,900 31% Buy 7.0 4% 38.9x 19.9x 17.4x 18.2x 4.0x 3.4x 3.1x 2.8x 10.
42、4x 14.3x 11.1x 11.0xABB ABBN.S CHF 19.2 Not Rated 41.5 23% 19.1x 17.8x 14.0x 11.8x 2.8x 2.7x n.a. n.a. 11.1x 8.8x 7.7x 6.9xMedian 28% 28.8 4% 25.6x 18.0x 17.4x 18.2x 2.8x 2.7x 3.1x 2.8x 11.1x 14.3x 11.0x 11.0xP/E P/B EV/EBITDACompany Ticker PCYLast closing priceTarget priceUpside/(downside)Rating Mk
43、t Cap (US$bn)18E-20E EPS CAGR2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020EChina appliancesMidea Group 000333.SZ CNY 38.81 50.00 29% Buy 23% 23% 21% 22% 17% 15% 14% 15% 3% 4% 4% 5% 8% 10% 8% 11%Gree Electric 000651.SZ CNY 36.80 44.00 20% Neutral 37% 3
44、8% 27% 26% 17% 20% 13% 11% 0% 5% 4% 5% 6% 12% 7% 6%Haier Electronics 1169.HK HKD 18.54 23.90 29% Buy* 16% 15% 15% 15% 81% 44% 40% 40% 1% 2% 2% 2% 6% 2% 7% 8%Little Swan 000418.SZ CNY 45.84 47.00 3% Neutral 20% 18% 17% 18% 27% 25% 27% 34% 2% 2% 3% 3% 6% 9% 9% 9%Hangzhou Robam 002508.SZ CNY 22.08 23.4
45、0 6% Neutral 31% 27% 25% 24% 28% 48% 20% 33% 2% 4% 4% 4% 3% 14% 8% 8%Median 20% 23% 23% 21% 22% 27% 25% 20% 33% 2% 4% 4% 4% 6% 10% 8% 8%China furnitureSuofeiya 002572.SZ CNY 18.31 24.40 33% Buy 20% 20% 20% 21% 30% 26% 26% 25% 1% 3% 3% 4% 0% 2% 2% 2%Oppein 603833.SS CNY 87.67 82.00 -6% Neutral 29% 25
46、% 23% 22% 52% 42% 33% 30% 1% 1% 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% 2%GZSP 300616.SZ CNY 62.33 49.00 -21% Sell 22% 18% 19% 20% 49% 28% 47% 49% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 1% 2% 6%Median -6% 22% 20% 20% 21% 49% 28% 33% 30% 1% 1% 2% 2% 0% 1% 2% 2%China LED lightingOpple Lighting 603515.SS CNY 27.99 32.00 14% Neutral 20% 22% 20% 21% 22
47、% 26% 28% 33% 1% 1% 2% 2% 4% 5% 5% 5%Median 14% 20% 22% 20% 21% 22% 26% 28% 33% 1% 1% 2% 2% 4% 5% 5% 5%Global appliancesElectrolux ELUXb.ST SEK 190 208 9% Neutral 30% 23% 20% 20% 16% 12% 12% 12% 3% 5% 5% 5% 7% 2% 4% 6%Daikin 6367.T JPY 12,240 15,000 23% Neutral 14% 15% 13% 13% 14% 19% 20% 20% 1% 1%
48、1% 1% 6% 6% 5% 6%Panasonic 6752.T JPY 1,068 1,800 69% Buy 8% 13% 13% 12% 8% 12% 12% 12% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 7% 8%Arcelik ARCLK.IS TRY 15.25 19.90 30% Neutral 13% 9% 15% 17% 16% 11% 13% 14% 3% 2% 4% 5% -4% -13% -6% 9%Median 27% 14% 14% 14% 15% 15% 12% 12% 13% 3% 2% 4% 4% 4% 3% 4% 7%Global automationFanuc 6954.T JPY 16,850 21,000 25% Neutral 9% 13% 11% 9% 16% 24% 17% 14% 2% 2% 5% 3% 1% 2% 5% 3%Yaskawa 6506.T JPY 2,977 3,900 31% Buy 11% 18% 18% 16% 13% 17% 18% 16% 1% 1% 2% 2% 4% 3% 3% 4%ABB ABBN
