1、 【关键词】东北地区 玉米 低温冷害 指标 风险构成因子【英文关键词】Key word Northeast China Corn Chilling damage Index Risk factor东北地区论文：东北地区玉米低温冷害指标及其风险研究【中文摘要】选取东北地区 16个代表性研究站的 1992-2010年气象资料、玉米生育期资料和低温灾害发生记录，评估了已有玉米低温冷害指标的适用性，提出了改进的低温冷害指标，并分析了低温冷害风险因子新特点。主要结论有：（1）近年来，东北地区气温增加显著，改变的气候条件和玉米品种使得原有玉米低温冷害指标已经不再适用。 （2）已有玉米低温冷害指标均不能很好
2、地判定1992-2010年东北地区发生的低温冷害，准确性相对较高的是热量指数指标和积温指标，热量指数指标适用于黑龙江省和吉林省的大部分地区，而积温指标则适用于辽宁地区。 （3）提出了适于东北地区玉米低温冷害判定的修正生长季温度距平指标和修正生长季热量指数指标。近 20年东北地区 5-9月平均气温和为 80的区域变暖后一般冷害指标减小了 1.3，严重冷害指标减小了 2.8，5-9 月平均气温和为 90的区域变暖后一般冷害指标减小了 1.2，严重冷害指标减小了 2.3，5-9 月平均气温和为 100的区域变暖后一般冷害指标减小了 1.0，严重冷害指标减小了 1.4。修正生长季热量指数指标为当吉林地
3、区 F(T)0.89 即发生冷害；当辽宁地区F(T)0.91 即发生冷害；受资料限制未能对黑龙江地区的玉米生长季热量指数指标进行修正。 （4）采用修正生长季温度距平指标和修正生长季热量指数指标给出了 1992-2010年东北地区低温冷害发生的频率、风险指数和风险构成因子变化分析。东北地区玉米低温冷害的频率由南向北逐渐增加,黑龙江省东南和吉林省西北部为严重冷害出现频率较高地区，辽宁省的大部分地区冷害较轻；一般冷害年热量指数的变异系数最大区在黑龙江省北部，此区域热量资源最不稳定，低温冷害年份多，风险较高；哈尔滨站低温冷害发生频率和强度都有所增加，梅河口站低温冷害发生频率降低，而强度增加，新民站低温
4、冷害发生频率和强度变化不大。【英文摘要】Various corn chilling damage indices were evaluated in northeast China based on the datafrom16representative weather stations including meteorological factors, maize growinginformation and the records of chilling damage during1992-2010, and the modified cornchilling damage indice
5、s suitable for corn in northeast China and corn risk factor would bestudied in this thesis. The main results included:(1) The temperature increased significantly in recent years in northeast China, climate andcorn varieties has also changed. As a result, the present corn chilling damage indices are
6、notsuitable in northeast China.(2) Present corn chilling damage indices are not suitable in northeast China based on thedata during1992-2010. The heat index indicator and the accumulated temperature index havethe higher average accuracy. The heat index indicator is suitable to most parts of Heilongj
7、iangprovince and Jilin province, while the accumulated temperature index is suitable in Liaoningprovince.(3) The modified average temperature departure index and the modified thermal index aresuggested for evaluating corn chilling damage in northeast China. The value of corn chillingdamage index bec
8、ome smaller for the modified average temperature departure index. During1992-2010, the value of generally chilling damage index reduced by1.3C,1.2C and1.0C inthe area where average temperature sum is between80C,90C, between90C and100C, andmore than100C during May to September due to climate warming,
9、 and the value of severechilling damage index reduced by2.8C,2.3C and1.4C in the same region. The corn chillingdamage occurs when the modified thermal index F(T)0.89in Jilin province, F(T)0.91inLiaoning province, while the modified thermal index is not able to given due to the datalimitation in Heil
10、ongjiang province.(4)The study analyzes the temperature of1992-2010in of16research stations inNortheast China using the improved chilling damage index, and finds the frequency, risk indexand risk factor change of corn chilling damage in northeast China during19922010are givenbased on the modified av
11、erage temperature departure index and the modified thermal index. The results show that the frequency of chilling damage is gradually increasing from South toNorth. The higher frequency of serious chilling damage appears in the southeast part ofHeilongjiang province and the northwest part of Jilin p
12、rovince, while lower frequency ofsevere chilling damage in the most part of Liaoning province. The region with the maximumvariation coefficient of the modified thermal index appears in the northern part of Heilongjiangprovince, where the thermal resources is so unstable and corn chilling damage happ
13、ens easily.The frequency and strength of chilling damage appears in Haerbin station both increase. Thefrequency of chilling damage appears in Meihekou station increase, while the strength ofchilling damage appears is down. The frequency and strength of chilling damage appears inXinmin station are no
14、 change.【目录】东北地区玉米低温冷害指标及其风险研究 摘要 4-5 Abstract 5-6 第一章 前言 9-19 1.1 研究背景和意义 9-12 1.1.1 东北地区气候变化 9-10 1.1.2 气候变化对作物的影响 10-12 1.2 东北地区低温冷害 12-18 1.2.1 低温冷害对玉米生长发育过程的影响 14-15 1.2.2 低温冷害影响玉米生长发育的生理机制 15-16 1.2.3 低温冷害指标研究进展 16-18 1.2.4 低温冷害风险研究进展 18 1.3 研究目标 18-19 第二章 研究资料与方法 19-22 2.1 资料选取与处理 19 2.1.1 资料
15、选取 19 2.1.2 资料处理 19 2.2 研究点概况 19-20 2.3 研究方法 20-22 第三章 东北地区玉米低温冷害指标分析 22-40 3.1 现有低温冷害指标的适用性分析 22-36 3.1.1 生长季温度距平指标 23-25 3.1.2 生长季积温指标 25-29 3.1.3 生长季热量指数指标 29-30 3.1.4 安全抽雄期指标 30-31 3.1.5 综合指标 31-33 3.1.6玉米低温冷害指标比较 33-36 3.2 玉米低温冷害指标研究 36-40 3.2.1 修正生长季温度距平指标 36-37 3.2.2 修正生长季热量指数指标 37-40 第四章 东北地区玉米低温冷害风险分析 40-43 4.1 玉米低温冷害发生频率 40 4.2 玉米热量变异系数指标 40-41 4.3 玉米低温冷害风险指数 41-42 4.4 玉米低温冷害风险构成因子 42-43 第五章 结论与讨论 43-45 5.1 主要结论 43 5.2 研究展望 43-45 参考文献 45-51 致谢 51-52 个人简介 52
