飞轮电池生产计划的制定1.docx

1、1飞轮电池生产计划的制定1. 市场需求预测-22. 实际产品的生产工艺路线分析-53. 生产方式的经济分析和比较-54. 制定综合生产计划-75. 生产能力的粗平衡-76. 制定主生产计划-87. 制定 MRP,CRP-88. 生产能力的精平衡-219. 零件工序卡编制-2110.产品装配工序卡编制-2321.市场需求预测（Market forecast ）实验数据Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 4Year 1 9 18 24 21Year 2 10 20 27 23Year 3 11 22 29 26year1，Q1 9year1，Q2 18year1，Q3 24

2、year1，Q4 21year2，Q1 10year2，Q2 20year2，Q3 27year2，Q4 23year3，Q1 11year3，Q2 22year3，Q3 29year3，Q4 26由折线图分析可知：飞轮电池的需求量具有明显的季节性变化，而不同年份相同月份的需求量呈明显的线性关系方案一：Seasonalized Time Seiries Regression 的模型来进行市场预测。预测过程及结果如下：* SEASONALIZED TIME SERIES REGRESSION FORECASTING *918242110202723112229261 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

3、9 10 11 12051015202530351 2 305101520253035Series 1Series 2Series 3Series 43-PROBLEM NAME: 张超-FORECASTSales - ABSOLUTEYEAR SEASON ACTUAL REGRESSION SEASONALIZED ERROR1 1 9.000 17.533 8.766 0.2341 2 18.000 17.982 17.982 0.0181 3 24.000 18.430 24.573 0.5731 4 21.000 18.879 22.025 1.0252 1 10.000 19.32

4、7 9.664 0.3362 2 20.000 19.776 19.776 0.2242 3 27.000 20.224 26.966 0.0342 4 23.000 20.673 24.118 1.1183 1 11.000 21.121 10.561 0.4393 2 22.000 21.570 21.570 0.4303 3 29.000 22.018 29.358 0.3583 4 26.000 22.467 26.212 0.212-Sales CONFIDENCE INTERVAL ( 90%)YEAR SEASON FORECAST LOWER BOUND UPPER BOUND

5、4 1 11.458 10.910 12.0064 2 23.364 22.268 24.4604 3 31.750 30.289 33.2124 4 28.305 27.026 29.584REGRESSION EQUATION: Y = a + bXWHERE: Y = SalesX = TIME PERIODa = 17.0844b = 0.4486FORECAST = Y * SEASONAL INDEX (i)R = 0.942R-SQUARE = 0.8872MEAN ABSOLUTE DEVIATION (MAD) FOR THE LAST 3 PERIODS = 0.333ME

6、AN SQUARED ERROR (MSE) FOR ALL PAST PERIODS = 0.283MEAN ERROR (bias) FOR ALL PAST PERIODS = -0.131STANDARD ERROR (sigmasubyx) IS = 0.605SEASONAL INDEX (1) = 0.500SEASONAL INDEX (2) = 1.000SEASONAL INDEX (3) = 1.333SEASONAL INDEX (4) = 1.167方案二：TIME SERIES REGRESSION 模型进行预测4预测过程及结果如下：* TIME SERIES RE

7、GRESSION FORECASTING *-PROBLEM NAME: zc-Sales Sales ABSOLUTEPERIOD ACTUAL FORECAST ERROR1 9.000 14.846 5.8462 18.000 15.783 2.2173 24.000 16.720 7.2804 21.000 17.657 3.3435 10.000 18.594 8.5946 20.000 19.531 0.4697 27.000 20.469 6.5318 23.000 21.406 1.5949 11.000 22.343 11.34310 22.000 23.280 1.2801

8、1 29.000 24.217 4.78312 26.000 25.154 0.846-Sales CONFIDENCE INTERVAL ( 90%)PERIOD FORECAST LOWER BOUND UPPER BOUND13 26.091 14.974 37.208REGRESSION EQUATION: Y = a + bXWHERE: Y = SalesX = TIME PERIODa = 13.9091b = 0.9371R = 0.500R-SQUARE = 0.2501MEAN ABSOLUTE DEVIATION (MAD) FOR THE LAST 3 PERIODS

9、= 2.303MEAN SQUARED ERROR (MSE) FOR ALL PAST PERIODS = 31.369MEAN ERROR (bias) FOR ALL PAST PERIODS = 0.0STANDARD ERROR (sigmasubyx) IS = 6.1354从预测结果可以看出这种预测方法与过去的数据相差很大，因此，两种方法相比较，第一种预测误差精度更高误差更小，所以经过比较我采取第一种预测方法。预测结果如下：Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 4Year 4 12 23 32 2952.实际产品的生产工艺路线分析(Product Proce

10、ss Analysis)零件工艺过程零件代号 零件名称1 2 3 4 5生产 提前期MLF-03 外壳 锻造 车削钻孔、扩孔1MLF-05 外转子电机套 筒 锻造 焊接 车削钻孔、扩孔2MLF-07-03 电磁铁外侧夹 紧发兰 铸造 车削 精车钻孔、扩孔线切割 2MLF-07-04 电磁铁铁芯 锻造 1MLF-07-05 电磁铁内侧夹 紧发兰 铸造 车削 精车钻孔、扩孔线切割 2MLF-07-06 电磁铁夹紧装 置 铸造 铣削钻孔、扩孔1MLF-09-01 盘片 铸造热处理车削 精车 钻孔、 扩孔 2MLF-09-02 磁环 模锻 车削 铣削 1MLF-09-03 压环 铸造 车削 铣削钻孔、

11、扩孔2MLF-11 底板 锻造 车削钻孔、扩孔1MLF-12 电器定位板 铸造 车削 铣削钻孔、扩孔263.生产方式的经济分析与比较(Alternative Plans Comparison)Machine capacity=12325/425=29(assemble/month)Assemble capacity=4900/175=28(assemble/month)所以每月最多生产 28 台。首先，计算两种计划一年招聘、解雇工人人数和年平均库存1 2 3 4 5 6 7Aggregate planMonth Aggregate demandPanned outputsWorkers req

12、uiredWorkers hiredWorkers laid off1 12 24 72 0 182 24 24 72 0 03 32 24 72 0 0Level capacity with inventory 4 29 24 72 0 01 12 12 36 0 542 24 24 72 36 03 32 32 84 12 0Matching demand4 29 29 84 0 08 9 10 11 12Inventory adding or subtractionBeginning inventoryEnding inventoryAverage inventory per month

13、Average inventory per year12 10 22 160 22 22 22(8) 22 14 18(5) 14 9 11.516.8750 0 0 00 0 0 00 0 0 00 0 0 00然后，计算两种方案的总成本1 2 3 4 5 6 7Aggregate planTotal annual numbeTotal annual numbeAverage annual inventorAnnual hiring Annual inventory Total annual subtraction Total annual increment7r of workers hi

14、redr of workers laid offy and layoff costcarrying costcost al operating costLevel capacity0 18 16.875 1080 5332.5 0 6412.5Matching demand48 54 0 3720 0 (4+1)*180012720备注：（4）=（1）*10+（2）*60；（5）=（3）*4*79：（7）=（4）+（5）+（6）在 matching demand 生产计划中第三月和第四月的需求量超过了本厂的最大生产能力，如若要满足要求需要采用外协或者加班的方式解决。如果采用外协第三月份有 32

15、-28=4 台需要外协，第四月份有 29-28=1 台需要外协。总的Cost=（4+1）*1800=9000再考虑到工人工资，则总的费用如下：Cost of level capacity=6412.5+72*4*2*200=121612.5Cost of matching demand=12720+(36+72+84+84)*2*200=123120相差的费用 Cost of matching demand- Cost of level capacity =123120-121612.5=1507.5。 Level capacity 比 Matching demand 的花费更少。如果采用加班

16、加班：每台成本 600*2.5=1500外协：每台成本 1800因为对于 matching demand 中第三月和第四月共缺 5 台，所以两者共相差（1800-1500）*5=1500通过比较可以看出，外泄和加班的费用差不多，但 Level capacity 的生产方式比 Matching demand 生产方式更加稳定； Level capacity 生产方式在解雇和招聘工人方要比 Matching demand 的变动更小，有利于和工会之间关系的维持；在 Level capacity 生产方式中有 8 台的安全库存可以保证在市场变动时满足市场需求。综合以上因素，选择 Level capa

17、city 生产方式。4.制定综合生产计划(Aggregate Planning)1 2 3 4 5 6 7Aggregate planMonth Aggregate demandPanned outputsWorkers requiredWorkers hiredWorkers laid off1 12 24 72 0 18Level capacity 2 24 24 72 0 083 32 24 72 0 0with inventory 4 29 24 72 0 05.生产能力粗平衡(Rough-Cut Capacity Planning)生产能力粗平衡Month final assembl

18、y hours1 2 3 4Production 24 24 24 24Final assembly hours4200 4200 4200 4200Load(hours) 4200 4200 4200 4200Capacity(hours) 4900 4900 4900 4900生产能力满足要求，不需要加班或者外协。6 制定主生产计划(Master Production Schedule)Level Capacity：主生产计划Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 41 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4Total demand12 24 32

19、29Beginning inventory10 22 22 14Required production6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Ending inventory22 22 14 97 制定 MRP,CRP(Material Requirement Planning,Capacity Requirement Planning)7.1 MRP 制定0 1 2 数量MLF-00 19MLF-03 1MLF-05 1MLF-07 1MLF-07-03 3MLF-0704 3MLF-07-05 3MLF-07-06 6MLF-09 1MLF-09-01 1MLF-09

20、-02 1MLF-09-03 1MLF-11 1MLF-12各个零件选择用 Lot For Lot 的生产方式，用软件 POM 计算：* MATERIALS REQUIREMENTS PLANNING (MRP) *=PROBLEM NAME: Untitled=Item Level Lead On Safety Already LotCode Code Time Hand Stock Allocated Size00 0 0 10 8 0 LFL-Week Number: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 -Gross Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Scheduled

21、 Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Receipts 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Releases 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6-Week Number: 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 -Gross Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Require

22、ments 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Receipts 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Releases 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6-10=Item Level Lead On Safety Already LotCode Code Time Hand Stock Allocated Size03 1 1 0 0 0 LFL-Week Number: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 -Gross Requirements 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Availab

23、le 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Receipts 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Releases 10 6 6 6 6 6 6 6* RUSH ORDER *-Week Number: 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 -Gross Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6

24、 6 6Planned Order Receipts 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Releases 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 0* RUSH ORDER *-=Item Level Lead On Safety Already LotCode Code Time Hand Stock Allocated Size05 1 2 0 0 0 LFL-Week Number: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 -Gross Requirements 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 0

25、0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Receipts 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Releases 16 6 6 6 6 6 6 6* RUSH ORDER *-Week Number: 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 -11Gross Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

26、6Planned Order Receipts 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Releases 6 6 6 6 6 6 0 0* RUSH ORDER *-=Item Level Lead On Safety Already LotCode Code Time Hand Stock Allocated Size0700 1 0 0 0 0 LFL-Week Number: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 -Gross Requirements 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 0 0

27、 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Receipts 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Releases 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6-Week Number: 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 -Gross Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Rec

28、eipts 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Releases 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6-=Item Level Lead On Safety Already LotCode Code Time Hand Stock Allocated Size0703 2 2 0 0 0 LFL-Week Number: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 -Gross Requirements 12 18 18 18 18 18 18 18Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirem

29、ents 12 18 18 18 18 18 18 18Planned Order Receipts 12 18 18 18 18 18 18 1812Planned Order Releases 48 18 18 18 18 18 18 18* RUSH ORDER *-Week Number: 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 -Gross Requirements 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 18 18 18

30、 18 18 18 18 18Planned Order Receipts 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18Planned Order Releases 18 18 18 18 18 18 0 0* RUSH ORDER *-=Item Level Lead On Safety Already LotCode Code Time Hand Stock Allocated Size0704 2 1 0 0 0 LFL-Week Number: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 -Gross Requirements 12 18 18 18 18 18 18 18Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 12 18 18 18 18 18 18 18Planned Order Receipts 12 18 18 18 18 18 18 18Planned Order Releases 30 18 18 18 18 18 18 18* RUSH ORD