1、 1 / 27飞轮电池生产计划的制定1. 市场需求预测2. 实际产品的生产工艺路线分析3. 生产方式的经济分析和比较4. 制定综合生产计划5. 生产能力的粗平衡6. 制定主生产计划7. 制定 MRP,CRP8. 生产能力的精平衡9. 零件工序卡编制10.产品装配工序卡编制2 / 271.市场需求预测（Market forecast ）实验数据Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 4Year 1 9 18 24 21Year 2 10 20 27 23Year 3 11 22 29 26根据给出的数据，选择一种模型来预测下一年的市场需求量，属于长期预。从给出的数据分析可以得
2、出，每年的同一月份市场需求量比较接近而同一年份的不同月份之间存在较大的差异，市场需求量与时间季节因素有关。方案一：Seasonalized Time Seiries Regression 的模型来进行市场预测。预测结果如下：Sales CONFIDENCE INTERVAL ( 90%)YEAR SEASON FORECAST LOWER BOUND UPPER BOUND4 1 11.458 10.910 12.0064 2 23.364 22.268 24.4604 3 31.750 30.289 33.2124 4 28.305 27.026 29.584误差分析 R = 0.942 R
3、-SQUARE = 0.8872MEAN ABSOLUTE DEVIATION (MAD) FOR THE LAST 3 PERIODS = 0.333MEAN SQUARED ERROR (MSE) FOR ALL PAST PERIODS = 0.283MEAN ERROR (bias) FOR ALL PAST PERIODS = -0.131STANDARD ERROR (sigmasubyx) IS = 0.605SEASONAL INDEX (1) = 0.500SEASONAL INDEX (2) = 1.000SEASONAL INDEX (3) = 1.333SEASONAL
4、 INDEX (4) = 1.167预测的误差在合理的范围内，预测结果如下：Month 1 2 3 4Demand forecast12 24 32 29方案二：TIME SERIES REGRESSION 模型进行预测预测结果如下：3 / 27Sales CONFIDENCE INTERVAL ( 90%)PERIOD FORECAST LOWER BOUND UPPER BOUND13 26.091 14.974 37.20814 27.028 15.911 38.14515 27.965 16.848 39.08216 28.902 17.785 40.019误差分析：R = 0.500
5、 R-SQUARE = 0.2501MEAN ABSOLUTE DEVIATION (MAD) FOR THE LAST 3 PERIODS = 2.303MEAN SQUARED ERROR (MSE) FOR ALL PAST PERIODS = 31.369MEAN ERROR (bias) FOR ALL PAST PERIODS = 0.0STANDARD ERROR (sigmasubyx) IS = 6.1354从预测结果可以看出这种预测方法与过去的数据相差很大，因此，两种方法相比较，第一种预测误差精度更高误差更小，所以经过比较我采取第一种预测方法。2.实际产品的生产工艺路线分析
6、(Product Process Analysis)零件工艺过程零件代号 零件名称 零件材料 1 2 3 4 5生产提前期MLF-03 外壳 Q235-A锻造 车削钻孔、扩孔 1MLF-05外转子电机套筒 Q235-A锻造 焊接 车削钻孔、扩孔 2MLF-11 底板 Q235-A锻造 车削钻孔、扩孔 1MLF-12 电器定位板 铝合金铸造 车削 铣削钻孔、扩孔 2MLF-07-03电磁铁外侧夹紧发兰 铝合金铸造 车削 精车钻孔、扩孔线切割 2MLF-07-04 电磁铁铁芯 DW314-50锻造 1MLF-07-05电磁铁内侧夹紧发兰 铝合金铸造 车削 精铣钻孔、扩孔 精车 2MLF-07-06
7、电磁铁夹紧装置 铝合金铸造 铣削钻孔、扩孔 1MLF-09-01 盘片 45铸造热处理 车削 精车钻孔、扩孔2MLF-09-02 磁环 电工纯铁模锻 车削 铣削 1MLF-09-03 压环 45 铸 车削 铣削 钻孔、 24 / 27造 扩孔3.生产方式的经济分析与比较(Alternative Plans Comparison)Machine capacity=12325/425=29(assemble/month)Assemble capacity=4900/175=28(assemble/month)所以每月最多生产 28 台。首先,计算计划一年雇用、解雇的工人数量和在这一年的平均库存。1
8、 2 3 4 5 6 7Aggregate planMonth Aggregate demandPanned outputsWorkers requiredWorkers hiredWorkers laid off1 12 24 72 0 182 24 24 72 0 03 32 24 72 0 0Level capacity with inventory4 29 24 72 0 01 12 12 36 0 542 24 24 72 36 03 32 32 84 12 0Matching demand4 29 29 84 0 08 9 10 11 12Inventory adding or s
9、ubtraction Beginning inventoryEnding inventoryAverage inventory per monthAverage inventory per year12 10 22 160 22 22 22(8) 22 14 18(5) 14 9 11.516.8750 0 0 00 0 0 00 0 0 00 0 0 005 / 27然后,计算两种方案的成本：1 2 3 4 5 6 7Aggregate planTotal annual number of workers hiredTotal annual number of workers laid of
10、fAverage annual inventoryAnnual hiring and layoff costAnnual inventory carrying costTotal annual subtraction costTotal annual incremental operating costLevel capacity0 18 16.875 1080 5332.5 0 6412.5Matching demand48 54 0 3720 0 (4+1)*180012720备注：（4）=（1）*10+（2）*60；（5）=（3）*4*79：（7）=（4）+（5）+（6）在 matchi
11、ng demand 生产计划中第三月和第四月的需求量超过了本厂的最大生产能力，如若要满足要求需要采用外协或者加班的方式解决。如果采用外协第三月份有 32-28=4 台需要外协，第四月份有 29-28=1 台需要外协。总的Cost=（4+1）*1800=9000再考虑到工人工资，总的费用如下：Cost of level capacity=6412.5+72*4*2*200=121612.5Cost of matching demand=12720+(36+72+84+84)*2*200=123120相差的费用 Cost of matching demand- Cost of level capa
12、city =123120-121612.5=1507.5。 Level capacity 比 Matching demand 的花费更少。如果采用加班加班：每台成本是 600*2.5=1500外协：每台是 1800因为对于 matching demand 中第三月和第四月共缺 5 台，所以两者共相差（1800-1500）*5=1500通过外协和加班两者的比较可以看出，两者的费用差不多，但考虑到 Level capacity 的生产方式比 Matching demand 生产方式更加稳定； Level capacity 生产方式在解雇和招聘工人方要比 Matching demand 的变动更小，
13、有利于和工会之间关系的维持；在 Level capacity 生产方式中有 8 台的安全库存可以保证在市场变动时满足市场需求。综合以上因素，我选择 Level capacity生产方式。6 / 274.制定综合生产计划(Aggregate Planning)1 2 3 4 5 6 7Aggregate planMonth Aggregate demandPanned outputsWorkers requiredWorkers hiredWorkers laid off1 12 24 72 0 182 24 24 72 0 03 32 24 72 0 0Level capacity with
14、inventory 4 29 24 72 0 05.生产能力粗平衡(Rough-Cut Capacity Planning)生产能力粗平衡Month final assembly hours1 2 3 4Production 24 24 24 24Final assembly hours4200 4200 4200 4200Load(hours) 4200 4200 4200 4200Capacity(hours) 4900 4900 4900 4900生产能力满足要求，不需要加班或者外协。6 制定主生产计划(Master Production Schedule)Level Capacity：
15、主生产计划Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 41 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4Total demand12 24 32 29Beginning inventory10 22 22 14Required 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 67 / 27productionEnding inventory22 22 14 97 制定 MRP,CRP(Material Requirement Planning,Capacity Requirement Planning)7.1 MRP 制定0 1 2 数量MLF-00
16、1MLF-03 1MLF-05 1MLF-07 1MLF-07-03 3MLF-07-04 3MLF-07-05 3MLF-07-06 6MLF-09 1MLF-09-01 1MLF-09-02 1MLF-09-03 1MLF-11 1MLF-12各个零件选择用 Lot For Lot 的生产方式，用软件 POM 计算可得：* MATERIALS REQUIREMENTS PLANNING (MRP) *=PROBLEM NAME: Untitled=Item Level Lead On Safety Already LotCode Code Time Hand Stock Allocated
17、 Size00 0 0 10 8 0 LFL8 / 27-Week Number: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 -Gross Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Receipts 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Releases 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6-Week Number: 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 -Gr
18、oss Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Receipts 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Releases 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6-=Item Level Lead On Safety Already LotCode Code Time Hand Stock Allocated Size03 1 1 0 0 0 LFL-Week
19、Number: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 -Gross Requirements 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 09 / 27Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Receipts 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Releases 10 6 6 6 6 6 6 6* RUSH ORDER *-Week Number: 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 -Gross Requireme
20、nts 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Receipts 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Releases 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 0* RUSH ORDER *-=Item Level Lead On Safety Already LotCode Code Time Hand Stock Allocated Size05 1 2 0 0 0 LFL-Week
21、 Number: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 -Gross Requirements 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Receipts 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 610 / 27Planned Order Releases 16 6 6 6 6 6 6 6* RUSH ORDER *-Week Number: 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 -Gross Require
22、ments 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Receipts 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Releases 6 6 6 6 6 6 0 0* RUSH ORDER *-=Item Level Lead On Safety Already LotCode Code Time Hand Stock Allocated Size0700 1 0 0 0 0 LFL-
23、Week Number: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 -Gross Requirements 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Receipts 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Releases 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6-11 / 27Week Number: 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 -Gross Requirements 6 6 6
24、 6 6 6 6 6Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Receipts 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Releases 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6-=Item Level Lead On Safety Already LotCode Code Time Hand Stock Allocated Size0703 2 2 0 0 0 LFL-Week Number: 1 2 3 4 5 6
25、7 8 -Gross Requirements 12 18 18 18 18 18 18 18Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 12 18 18 18 18 18 18 18Planned Order Receipts 12 18 18 18 18 18 18 18Planned Order Releases 48 18 18 18 18 18 18 18* RUSH ORDER *-Week Number: 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 -Gross Requ
26、irements 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 012 / 27Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18Planned Order Receipts 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18Planned Order Releases 18 18 18 18 18 18 0 0* RUSH ORDER *-=Item Level Lead On Safety Already LotCode Code Time Hand
27、 Stock Allocated Size0704 2 1 0 0 0 LFL-Week Number: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 -Gross Requirements 12 18 18 18 18 18 18 18Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 12 18 18 18 18 18 18 18Planned Order Receipts 12 18 18 18 18 18 18 18Planned Order Releases 30 18 18 18 18 18 18
28、 18* RUSH ORDER *-Week Number: 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 -Gross Requirements 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18Planned Order Receipts 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 1813 / 27Planned Order Releases 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 0* RUSH
29、 ORDER *-=Item Level Lead On Safety Already LotCode Code Time Hand Stock Allocated Size0705 2 2 0 0 0 LFL-Week Number: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 -Gross Requirements 12 18 18 18 18 18 18 18Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 12 18 18 18 18 18 18 18Planned Order Receipts 12 18 18 18 18 18 18 18Planned Order Releases 48 18 18 18 18 18 18 18* RUSH ORDER *-Week Number: 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 -Gross Requirements 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18Scheduled Receipts 0 0
