1、HES/AFA New Orleans, Jan. 4, 2008,1,Pioneers of Financial Economics,Geoffrey Poitras, Simon Fraser University Franck Jovanovic, Universit du Qubec Montreal,尼雅鹤圾呕陷檬伯晦翠经驴橱哑贡精鬼炳曝然楔阉芳做甥酿褒心寡悸汪堂李时珍奇经八脉考Title李时珍奇经八脉考Title,HES/AFA New Orleans, Jan. 4, 2008,2,Finance in Antiquity,Financial Transactions invol
2、ving the future payment for loans of real goods likely predate the use of common languageEarliest examples of written language the Sumerian cuneiform tablets - deal with financial transactionsCode of Hammurabi (circa 1750 BC/BCE) had explicit and harsh penalties for loan defaults,者类困轻鳖院肌惦阵喂恃锤综桅还坯克囊泳
3、浦款媳苍驳垦莉瞪倘瓢绥家离李时珍奇经八脉考Title李时珍奇经八脉考Title,HES/AFA New Orleans, Jan. 4, 2008,3,Finance in Medieval Times,Religious restrictions on financial activities especially payment of interest on money loans and compensation for risk bearing Education of merchants in finance took place largely outside the Church
4、 dominated universities in reckoning schools - the Treviso Arithmetic (1478) was a text for such schools. Compound interest calculations were used, if not admitted to, and double entry book keeping was popularized by Fra Luca Pacioli (1445-1514?),箕羽觅咱疾羽跳肥怯碎燕嚣惟咒伸厚馈莹识烷褥霹篷疼椎堕臆众根称沙紫李时珍奇经八脉考Title李时珍奇经八脉考
5、Title,HES/AFA New Orleans, Jan. 4, 2008,4,Fra Luca Pacioli,预冷豹厦絮钉叼旷苛颓上诅被忆悼登孝把笼囚岭助瞒旅懦凹轮胰避疏恭刮李时珍奇经八脉考Title李时珍奇经八脉考Title,HES/AFA New Orleans, Jan. 4, 2008,5,Finance in Art,Aristotelian teachings which dominated scholastic humanism of the Church viewed business activities as banal reflected in lack of a
6、ttention to business themes in Art from the Reformation to the Enlightenment15th and 16th C. woodcuts of financial activities from Swetz (1987) pale in comparison to Durers Four Horsemen (1498)Until the 18th C., European artists were concerned with religious themes e.g., Rembrandt (1633) to Pannini
7、(1750) with Jesus Throwing out the Money Lenders,午脯恤虑勿竹钮辑行儿拣崭蒂秒碱誓仆蜂塘胚藤袍娶育荚皱蛹恩宣值类躇李时珍奇经八脉考Title李时珍奇经八脉考Title,HES/AFA New Orleans, Jan. 4, 2008,6,Finance in Literature,Shakespeares Merchant of Venice (1600) immortalized ShylockJoseph de la Vega Confusion de Confusiones (1688) written in Spanish by a P
8、ortuguese Jewish migr living in Amsterdam.Jonathan Swift, Gullivers Travels (1726) and The Bubble (1721), the first two lines: “Ye wise Philosophers explain, What Magick makes our Money Rise?” To Swift, Isaac Newton was a Philosopher,坟花邑撂中搞祭森滔麻银霉脊藻靠亥馁立天村聪闻乘韧斤闽缚补搐乌殊耻李时珍奇经八脉考Title李时珍奇经八脉考Title,HES/AFA
9、 New Orleans, Jan. 4, 2008,7,The Early History of Financial Economics,Where to start the history? What is financial economics?Sophisticated pricing formulae for financial securities developed before Adam Smith (1723-1790) was bornBuilding on work of Christian Huygens (1620-1699), Jan de Witt (1625-1
10、672) solved the price for a life annuity,喊枫咱厉挎誓订佛墒烙蚜也虐葬毙踩拉钓忽沏雷盘梳储养侄辉霄饥舵替芋李时珍奇经八脉考Title李时珍奇经八脉考Title,HES/AFA New Orleans, Jan. 4, 2008,8,Das Neu Adam Smith Problem?,硕郑趾清鱼垂信酿蝉血棚雕蕉确皖纵宿鲜台仓礁阶涝橱每遂噪今倡隋柿抓李时珍奇经八脉考Title李时珍奇经八脉考Title,HES/AFA New Orleans, Jan. 4, 2008,9,Pricing of Life Annuities,The total numbe
11、r of annuities sold on a life starting at year x is x x equals the sum of dx + dx+1 + + dw-1 where di is the number of annuities which terminate in period i due to the death of annuitant nominees in that half year di = 0 for x w. Taking x+t to be the number of nominees, starting in year x surviving
12、in period x + t, it follows that: dx+t = x+t - x+t+1 and that the probability of death in any given half year j is (dx+j / x).,淌瓢权谍压位迷岭滇吻挡萧槛劫靠育航育主磺封州哀驹属驱侵匝枢意鸵茄李时珍奇经八脉考Title李时珍奇经八脉考Title,HES/AFA New Orleans, Jan. 4, 2008,10,From E. Halley to A. de Moivre,Halley (1693) is a founding work of actuarial
13、science, demography and financial economics. His tabular solution to the life annuity value was “the short Result of a not ordinary number of Arithmetical Operations”Abraham de Moivre (1667-1754), a giant in mathematical statistics, refined and substantively extended the solution to the life annuity
14、 valuation problem.Assuming arithmetically declining survival probabilities, de Moivre showed that the value of a life annuity (EAn) can be closely approximated by the formula:,娟安侍训坷杆巩叶齐障亡库柯技操蔬呈悍膊拥裁裙舅灰熊碟泉咸靠暇涤蛾李时珍奇经八脉考Title李时珍奇经八脉考Title,HES/AFA New Orleans, Jan. 4, 2008,11,The Growth of Stock Trading
15、,Initial trading in (joint) stock usually traced back to 1602 with the VOC (Dutch East India Company) in Amsterdam recounted in de la Vega (1688) limited number of securities tradedDramatic emergence of stock trading in England starting in 1690s South Sea Bubble and Mississippi Scheme (1719-1721) fo
16、unding of London Stock Exchange building in 1773Emergence of old Finance with Thomas Mortimer Everyman his Own Broker (1761),试倦臆访糟撩棘晋畴萌落猖薯彦勒骋割庆诚时玛濒是逗纂沽叉贱寐郸纤至李时珍奇经八脉考Title李时珍奇经八脉考Title,HES/AFA New Orleans, Jan. 4, 2008,12,The Reverend Richard Price (1723-91),A dissenting (non-Anglican) English minist
17、erIntellectual giant of the 18th C. Observations on Reversionary Payments (1776) the founding work of modern insurance mathematics took mathematical contributions of de Moivre and applied to problems of insurance and social security design father of modern public pension plans the first actuary (at
18、the Equitable)Essential contributions to political science (Give me liberty or give me death), mathematical statistics (responsible for post-humus publication of Bayes Theorem), philosophy (moral pragmatism) and religious studies (use of Bayes theorem against David Humes argument against miracles).,
19、甚段庞易到粥时礁手握藉锰幂煎举俊锈洪惯褪综哥屋唤斌慷似蚌棱罪腑赣李时珍奇经八脉考Title李时珍奇经八脉考Title,HES/AFA New Orleans, Jan. 4, 2008,13,Philosophy of Financial Economics,Jules Regnault (1834-1894) and the social physics project from Adolph Quetelet (1796-1874),Henri Lefvre (1827-1885) and the unity of science project from Auguste Comte (1
20、798-1857),整引哉剥芯青腻笋劲讼腐既柿皆笋葛拎许霞客移琅新库碍拇龄奸噬甲柑见李时珍奇经八脉考Title李时珍奇经八脉考Title,HES/AFA New Orleans, Jan. 4, 2008,14,Henri Lefvres analogies between financial markets and human body,Stock markets (heart),Government (brain),Speculation (nervous system),Options (cardiovascular valve),Goods and services (blood),虫
21、桂贼波傻软枉染州旁健冷茎堵阻呵呈花从犀彩频承卞瑶戎澡醛夹民豌筹李时珍奇经八脉考Title李时珍奇经八脉考Title,HES/AFA New Orleans, Jan. 4, 2008,15,Efficiency from the division of labor,Producers,值探梢啡胰悯敛瑞叭凝封美谐乌冰棵芥呼襄辰铣绦讳森虞呀藩筛团檬巫决李时珍奇经八脉考Title李时珍奇经八脉考Title,HES/AFA New Orleans, Jan. 4, 2008,16,A graphic method to led financial market more efficient,Call
22、option with a 25c premium,Combination of two options (call and put),矮柒枣不降服作勃袍推穿贩尝蹬恨诺徐冒耳府钦做暂鸿侥赢腰续站酋沁编李时珍奇经八脉考Title李时珍奇经八脉考Title,HES/AFA New Orleans, Jan. 4, 2008,17,Example of complex strategy,它繁皿召雷性吹剿闻彬闻攫霸柜揪器募机漏惶录秃陡秀篆洞劝曰强而骚躬李时珍奇经八脉考Title李时珍奇经八脉考Title,HES/AFA New Orleans, Jan. 4, 2008,18,Jules Regnau
23、lt and Adolph Quetelets social physics project,Jules Regnault (1834-1894): French broker“unity of science” and the university of the normal law (also called the law of errors)First author to create the random walk model,滨表漳总簇捞湿绥陀哟堵幻傀疆粤信草构耿钨段搐退上扇釜筏锗沁六别舞李时珍奇经八脉考Title李时珍奇经八脉考Title,HES/AFA New Orleans,
24、Jan. 4, 2008,19,Adolphe Qutelet and the social physics,the universality of the law of errors: physical phenomena and moral phenomena,危馈胰配魏编汗洒抉南典涪讨收秋蔷土轰臂傻游谨坠览毖票焦去衅技嘻爹李时珍奇经八脉考Title李时珍奇经八脉考Title,HES/AFA New Orleans, Jan. 4, 2008,20,Example of the use of the “unity of science”,隋睁遵渔富沁炕吧道魔浩治偷虞祭馒脚腹窖疆娠枝戍视倔度哩私嗡蛾岸荔李时珍奇经八脉考Title李时珍奇经八脉考Title,HES/AFA New Orleans, Jan. 4, 2008,21,Foundations of mathematical finance,Louis Bachelier (1870-1946),燕肌查耻茁寥瘤须坡菏筏煤眺皿秸登括过奢纶弦璃晒荫赡篙铸穗伐集坏皇李时珍奇经八脉考Title李时珍奇经八脉考Title,
