1、Chapter 3 Chinas Economy,Overview,In spite of its economic wonders, China is still basically an agricultural nation with a population of over 1.3 billion, of which most are living in the countryside.(1) 1949 - 1970s:Followed the former Soviet Unions model of economic planning and command(2) 1979 now
2、:Economic reform: to liberalize agriculture and introduce individual incentives,Current Economic Picture,Strong as an ox? (a foreign perspective) The Chinese economy is stumbling. How much worse can get?,The beast which gives its name to the Chinese new year that begins on January 26th is meant to s
3、ymbolise prosperity through fortitude and hard work, offering hope that China will soon regain its economic vigour. But an ox is often a castrated bullwhich may be an apt description of Chinas economic pain.一月二十六日是中国的农历新年，这一年的生肖预示着通过坚毅不拔的努力而获得成功，这为中国尽快恢复经济迅速发展带来了希望。然而，牛通常是去势的公牛这恰如其分的描述了低迷的中国经济。,Data
4、,(1) GDP Growth rateNew figures show that Chinas GDP growth fell to 6.8% in the year to the fourth quarter, down from 9% in the third quarter and half its 13% pace in 2007. Growth of 6.8% may still sound pretty robust, but it implies that growth was virtually zero on a seasonally adjusted basis in t
5、he fourth quarter. But some economists forecast 8% and over 10% GDP growth for Chinas economy in 2009 and 2010 respectively.,(2) Industrial production Industrial production has slowed even more sharply, growing by only 5.7% in the 12 months to December, compared with an 18% pace in late 2007.Thousan
6、ds of factories have closed and millions of migrant workers have already lost their jobs. But there could be worse to come.,(3) ExportsChinese exports are likely to drop further in coming months as world demand shrinks. Qu Hongbin, an economist at HSBC, forecasts that exports in the first quarter co
7、uld be 19% lower than a year ago. 2009 may well see the first full-year decline in exports in more than a quarter of a century.,(4) Electricity output and GDPEconomists have become gloomier about Chinas prospects, with many now predicting GDP growth of only 5-6% in 2009, the lowest for almost two de
8、cades. The most dismal view comes from Albert Edwards of a French bank, who thinks China may be sliding into outright recession. Albert Edwards points to to a fall in electricity output of 6% in the year to the fourth quarter, down from average annual growth of 15% over the previous five years.,GDP
9、growth and electricity use have tended to move together.GDP的增长与耗电量成正比A decline in electricity output may mean that GDP is falling.,(5) OECDs leading indicatorEqually worrying is the OECDs leading indicator of economic activity in China, which has plunged to its lowest level in its 26-year history, l
10、ower even than during the slump in 1989, the year of the Tiananmen Square incident.,Reality,(1) This makes for a compelling story. But the relationship between GDP and electricity consumption has been distorted by the uneven nature of this slowdown. Energy-guzzling heavy industries, such as steel an
11、d cement, bore the brunt of Chinas downturn late last year. So it is not surprising that electricity use slumped. 这似乎使局势更加紧迫。但是，由于这次经济减速的不平衡性，GDP与用电量之间的关系已经被扭曲了。如钢铁、水泥等高能耗的重工业在去年经济下滑中首当其冲，因此耗电量减少也不奇怪。,(2) too much weight may be given to the declining exports, because it is often wrongly assumed that
12、 the slump in Chinas growth has been caused mainly by a collapse in its exports to America and other rich economies. Yet in 2008 the fall in net exports accounted for less than half of its slowdown. More important was a collapse in housing construction, caused by the governments efforts to deflate a
13、 potential bubble. This, in turn, reduced the demand for materials such as steel. So by the fourth quarter there had been a huge build-up in stocks, exacerbating the fall in production: steel output was 12% lower than a year earlier.,GDP growth is likely to continue to fall during the first half of
14、2009, sounding alarm bells among those who repeat the official mantra that China needs to grow by at least 8% a year to avoid social unrest (even though that number has no sound economic basis). But there is good reason to hope that by midyear the economy will perk up as destocking comes to an end a
15、nd the governments fiscal stimulus kicks in. 到09年中期，由于库存缩减接近尾声，加之政府财政刺激措施介入，中国经济很有可能复苏。,Measures,Measures taken or introduced by China to stimulate its economic growth after the global economic crisis started(1) Infrastructure(2) Health care(3) Rebate(4) Cutting interest rates(5) Housing,(1) Infrast
16、ructure,Chinas 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) package of infrastructure spending, subsidies and tax cuts for businesses has been trashed by many commentators as another “Chinese fake”. Most of it is not new money, they claim, and the central government will finance less than one-third of the planned
17、 spending; most of the rest will have to come from banks, which in the current climate may be reluctant to lend.,It is true that some of the extra spending had already been announced, but what matters for economic growth is how much spending will actually increase this year. 虽然已经宣布了一些增加的消费，但是影响经济增长的
18、是这一年能真正增加多少消费。 The answer is a lot. For example, JPMorgan forecasts that transport investment will expand by an impressive 70% in 2009. HSBC estimates a total spending boost of 6-7% of GDP over this year and next.,(2) Health care,Since the November package, the government has introduced other measur
19、es to support the economy. On January 21st it announced extra spending of 850 billion yuan over three years to improve health care.,(3) Rebate,From February rural residents will get a 13% rebate on purchases of goods such as refrigerators, TVs and washing machines. Consumer spending will be dented b
20、y job losses and smaller wage rises but has so far remained strong, with retail sales up by 18% in real terms in the year to December.,(4) Cutting interest rates,Interest rates have also been cut five times since September and, much more important, controls on bank lending have been scrapped.,(5) Ho
21、using,To help the property sector, minimum down-payments have been reduced from 30-40% of a homes value to 20%, the transaction tax has been waived for properties held for at least two years, and more public housing is to be built. 为了恢复房地产市场，最低现付额已经由房产价格的30-40%下降到20%，房主的交易税也可以至少推迟两年再缴纳，还将建造更多公共住房。,T
22、he all-too visible hoof,Chris Wood, at CLSA, a brokerage, says the effectiveness of the stimulus hinges on the extent to which China is now a capitalist economy. The more “capitalist” it is, the deeper the downturn now; the more it is still a command economy, the better the chance of recovery in 200
23、9. “资本化”程度越高，经济就越低迷；计划经济的程度越高，2009年恢复经济的可能性就越大。,State-controlled firms, which account for one-third of industrial output and almost half of all investment, have been “asked” not to cut jobs and capital spending. All the big banks are state-owned and their chairmen are appointed by the government. If
24、 they get a phone call telling them to lend more, they are likely to do so.,Banks already seem to be following Beijings orders: total lending surged by 19% in the year to December. 银行似乎已经在执行北京政府的命令了：截止到12月，贷款总额激增了19%。 China is one of the few large economies whose banking system has not been crippled
25、 by the global credit crunch. Andy Rothman, also at CLSA, argues that “in China, there is only a credit crunch when the political leadership wants one”. He believes the economy will revive by midyear and achieve GDP growth of close to 8% for 2009 as a whole.,The obvious concern is that although heav
26、y-handed government meddling may be more effective than market-based tools to pull an economy out of a deep downturn, it comes at a cost. 一个显而易见的担忧是，尽管高压政府的干预，比起以市场为基础的手段更利于把经济拖出困境，代价却是高昂的。 Public investment will inevitably include some wasteful spending, and politically directed lending could add t
27、o excess capacity in some sectors and create new bad loans for banks. This may hobble the bull in the future. But first it needs to regain its virility.,What have changed after the article was written? Is it for better or worse?Please backup your argument with sufficient data.,Translation,据专家估计，在200
28、9年上半年中国的国内生产总值将会继续下滑。Some economists forcast/predict Chinas GDP growth is likely to continue to fall during the first half of 2009.在中国，人们常常错误地假设，中国经济增长的衰退是由于对美国和其他发达国家的出口减少引起的，然而2008年净出口只占中国经济变慢的1/2不到。It is often wrongly assumed that the slump/recession in Chinas growth has been caused by a collapse
29、 in its exports to America and other developed countries. Yet in 2008 the fall in net exports accounted for less than half of its slowdown.,Translation P22,由于当局巨大的政策刺激措施，公司债券的回报率缓慢下降。Because of the authorities huge policy stimulus, yields on corporate bonds have edged lower/slowed down/dropped off s
30、lowly.除中国信贷状况好外，在世界其他地方几乎没有令人鼓舞的好消息。 Except for Chinese credit, there is little encouraging in the rest of the world.,Translation P8,1. 有人担心过多货币供给会引起通货膨胀。(contribute to)Some worry that over money supply will contribute to inflation. 2. 在经济高速增长时期，资本流动性会不断增长。During a period of rapid economic growth, t
31、he capital liquidity will be going up.,3. 我们必须对国际金融机构进行改革，让发展中国家有更大大话语权和代表性，以便让他们在世界经济发展中发挥更大作用。 We must reform the international financial institutions by enabling the developing countries to have a greater voice and representation so that they can play more important role in the world economic development.,4. 像其他国家一样中国已采取了强有力的财政和货币措施来确保中国在2008年有8%的GDP 增长。 Like other countries, China has taken strong fiscal and monetary policy to ensure 8% growth rate in 2008.,
