1、探讨塔里木河流域源流区降水量变化的小波（中英文）摘要：降水量（P）是估算水资源各分量的一个重要物理量。选取了塔里木河流域源流区5个站点近50年的降水量序列资料，进行了Kendall 秩次相关检验和小波分析，揭示了塔里木河流域源流区降水变化的多时间尺度的复杂结构，从而为未来流域源流区降水量及相关水系径流量变化的预测提供依据。结果表明：近40年来流域源流区降水量呈现增加趋势，各站降水量的变化趋势显著性程度有所不同。在低频变化层次上，沙里桂兰克、卡拉贝利、乌鲁瓦提3站的大尺度周期震荡比较明显。在高频变化层次上，各站都存在510年不等的震荡主周期，但局部化特征有所差异。Abstract: the pr
2、ecipitation (P) is an important physical quantity estimation of each component of the water resources. Selected the tarim river basin origin area 5 site of nearly 50 years precipitation sequence data, the Kendall rank correlation test and wavelet analysis, reveals the origin area of tarim river basi
3、n in the precipitation changes in the time scale of complex structure, thus for future river basin origin and related drainage area rainfall runoff forecast provides the basis. Results show that the origin of area rainfall in nearly 40 years basin showed increasing trend, the precipitation change te
4、ndency of every significant degree is http:/ http:/ At low frequency change level, sand the laurel orchid gram, Carla bailey, the ulug ata key 3 stations of large scale are the obvious cyclical swings. Obliged at high frequency change level, there are 5 10 years of turbulence main cycle, but localiz
5、ation characteristics differ.关键词：塔里木河流域；降水量；Kendall 秩次检验；小波分析Key words: the tarim river basin; Precipitation; Kendall rank test; The wavelet analysis降水的形成过程是一个涉及到水文、气象、地形、植被等因素的复杂过程，既受到确定性因素的作用又受到随机因素的影响，因而其变化非常复杂，对其未来的精确描述也十分困难。传统的统计判别方法很难判别其演化过程，而被誉为“数学显微镜” 的小波分析由于其在时域和频域同时具有良好的局部化性质，能同时在时间和频率2个尺度
6、上展现数据序列的变化特征，特别适合做非线性现象的检测与分析，尤其是在多尺度的气候诊断中的应用，已取得一些很好的成果。如尤卫红1用 Morlet 小波和 Marr 小波分析了云南近百年气温的变化；邓子旺等2用 DB16正交小波对南方涛动与北大西洋涛动进行了分析；戴新刚等利用 Morlet 小波对华北降水频谱变化及其可能机制进行了分析3。笔者采用 Morlet 小波对塔里木河流域源流区降水量的演变规律进行了初步的分析，探讨了源流区近50年降水时间序列多时间尺度的变化特点，这对于该流域相关水系未来径流量的预测以及合理利用流域水资源具有重要参考价值。http:/ http:/ The formatio
7、n process of precipitation is a involving hydrology, meteorology, topography, vegetation factors such as complex process, the role of uncertainty factors, both under the influence of random factors, so the change is very complicated, accurate description of the future is also very difficult. Traditi
8、onal statistics discriminant method to identify the evolution process, and is known as the “mathematics microscope“ wavelet analysis due to the time domain and frequency domain at the same time has good localization property, can in time and frequency at the same time two scales show data sequence v
9、ariation characteristics, particularly suitable for detection and analysis of nonlinear phenomenon, especially in the diagnosis of multi-scale climate, has achieved some good results. Such as YouWeiGong 1 with Morlet wavelet and Marr wavelet analysis for yunnan hundred years changes in temperature;
10、Deng Ziwang etc. 2 with DB16 orthogonal wavelet on southern oscillation and the north Atlantic oscillation are analyzed; Wear new just using Morlet wavelet spectrum changes in precipitation of north China and its possible mechanism were analyzed. 3 The author USES the Morlet wavelet origin area of t
11、arim river basin precipitation evolution law has carried on the preliminary analysis, probes into the origin area of nearly 50 years precipitation time series change characteristics http:/ http:/ multiple time scales, this to the related drainage basin runoff forecast of future, and rational utiliza
12、tion of basin water resources has important reference value.1 研究资料与方法1 research material and method1.1 研究区域概况1.1 the study area塔里木河流域是中国最大的内陆河流域，主要包括塔里木河干流和源流区域。源流区河流主要由叶尔羌河、阿克苏河、和田河等汇合而成，其中阿克苏河由昆马立克河与托什干河两源汇合而成，见图1。塔里木河流域总面积102万 km2（国内流域面积 99.6万km2） 。流域内气候干燥、干旱少雨、昼夜温差大，是典型的大陆性气候，其生态系统是一个由高山冰川高山冷湿草甸
13、中山湿润森林低山半干旱灌草平原干旱荒漠绿洲构成的脆弱生态系统，也正是由于高山冰川和山区降水形成了塔里木河水系，而在径流组成中，冰川融水占48.2%，雨、雪混合补给占 27.4%。因此，山区气温和降水是影响塔里木河流域源流水量大小最重要的环境要素4-5。论文网In continental river basin in tarim river basin is Chinas largest, mainly including the tarim and origin area. Origin area river is mainly composed of yarkant river, AKeSu
14、He, HeTianHe converge and become, including AKeSuHe YouKun malik river joins two http:/ http:/ came in dry river source, as shown in figure 1. Tarim river basin area of 1.02 million km2 (domestic river basin area of 996000 km2). Basin climate is dry, dry little rain, day and night temperature differ
15、ence is big, is a typical continental climate, the ecosystem is a mountain glaciers, wet alpine cold meadow, zhongshan moist forests, low hill semi-arid bringing - plain arid desert oasis of fragile ecosystems, it is because the mountain glaciers and mountainous area precipitation formed the tarim r
16、iver water system, the runoff composition, the glacial meltwater accounted for 48.2%, rain, snow mixed supply accounted for 27.4%. Therefore, air temperature and precipitation in the mountainous area is the most important influence of tarim river basin origin water environment factors 4-5. Net of pa
17、per of 1.2 研究资料1.2 research materials由于新疆特殊的地理环境，塔里木河流域水文气象站点分布稀少，笔者采用塔里木河流域源流区5个与水系发生联系的气象站近40多年来的年降水量资料来代表源流区降水量变化趋势。5个站分别是卡群、协合拉、沙里桂兰克、乌鲁瓦提、卡拉贝利，对应水系见图1所示。Due to the special geographical environment in xinjiang, the tarim river basin hydrological meteorological site distribution, the author http:
18、/ http:/ the tarim river basin origin area contact drainage occurred five weather stations in recent 40 years of data to represent the origin area precipitation change trend of annual precipitation. Five station are respectively the laurel orchid gram card group, synergistic, sand, the ulug ata key,
19、 Carla bailey, corresponding to the water system is shown in figure 1.1.3 研究方法1.3 the research methods1.3.1 小波分析1.3.1 wavelet analysis小波变换是把小波母函数（t）作位移 b、在伸缩尺度 a 下与所要分析的函数 f（t） （笔者以年降水量）作内积，对于函数 f（t ） L2（R） ，连续小波变换的公式6-8：Wavelet transform is the wavelet generating function b (t) as a displacement, u
20、nder a telescopic scale and to the analysis of the function f (t) (based on annual precipitation) for inner product, the function f (t) L2 (R), the continuous wavelet transform formula 6-8 :2 结果与分析2 the results and analysis图2ae 给出了5个站降水量时间序列的线形函数趋势、 5年滑http:/ http:/ 动平均特征，图3ae 为各站多年降水距平值图。图4ae 显示了塔里
21、木河源流区各站降水量（版权声明：本文转载自论文网在线()，版权归原作者所有。 ）在不同时间尺度上的周期震荡。信号的强弱通过小波系数的大小来表示。从小波变换图上可看出不同时间层次上降水量的变化情况，图中实线表示降水增加，虚线表示降水的减少；各图上半部分为低频，等值线相对稀疏，对应较长尺度周期的震荡，各图下半部分是高频，等值线相对密集，对应较短尺度周期的震荡。实际降水量的变化可以看成各个层次变化叠加的结果，它的大小取决于各时间层次上的变化情况及其对时间降水量的方差贡献。Figure 2 a e gives five station precipitation time series of the
22、linear function trend moving average characteristics, 5 years, figure 3 a e for many years precipitation stations analyzed the figure. Figure 4 a e shows the origin area of the tarim river rainfall stations (net of paper of copyright statement: this article reprinted from online (), all peer origina
23、tor.) Cyclical swings on different time scales. The strength of the signal through the size of the wavelet coefficients. On small wave transformation chart we can see different time level changes of the precipitation, figure within line shows the precipitation increased, the dotted line said precipi
24、tation decreases; Images for the upper part of low frequency, the contour is relatively sparse, http:/ http:/ to a longer scale cycles, the bottom half is high frequency, the contour is relatively dense, the oscillation of the corresponding scale shorter cycle. Actual precipitation changes can be se
25、en as the result of the superposition of all levels change, it depends on the size of the various levels of time variation and its contribution to time precipitation variance.卡群站的5年降水量趋势线倾向率为 1.9070 mm，多年的年平均降水量为69.95 mm，年际变化比较剧烈（ CV=0.49） 。见表1。经5年滑动平均后卡群站降水量的年代际变化得以明显表现（见图2a） 。20世纪60 年代中期-70 年代中期有2
26、次明显的增加。20世纪70 年代末-80年代末有2 次明显的减少，期间略有回升。20 世纪90年代回升趋势比较明显。降水距平值（见图3a）：20 世纪 70年代初-80年代中期以负距平值为主，最大降水正距平值为71.25 mm，出现在1974年，最大降水负距平值为-61.05 mm，出现在1985年。由图4a 可见，其年际尺度和年代际尺度特征十分明显。60年代中期以后主要存在58 年周期，且周期由长变短。在2000 年附近，系数线为虚线，表明降水量减少，这与距平值图反映的情况一致。Card standing group of five annual precipitation trend li
27、ne tendency rate is 1.9070 mm, for many years an average annual rainfall is 69.95 mm, more intense interannual (CV = 0.49). Shown in table 1. After 5 years moving average card group of obvious decadal variability of rainfall (see figure 2 a). In the mid - 1960 - s - http:/ http:/ 70 - s has two obvi
28、ous increase. In the late 1970 s - 80 - s have 2 times decreased significantly, while recovering slightly. The obvious upward trend in the 1990 s. Precipitation anomaly values (see figure 3 a) : in the early 80 s to mid - 80 - s with negative anomaly value is given priority to, the maximum precipita
29、tion is analyzed the value of 71.25 mm, appeared in 1974, the maximum precipitation negative anomaly value is 61.05 mm, appeared in 1985. By figure 4 a, the interannual scale and decadal scale characteristics is very obvious. After the mid - there are 5 8 years cycle, and change from long to short c
30、ycle. Near 2000, the coefficient of line as the dotted line, show that precipitation decrease, and analyzed the graph which reflect the situation.卡拉贝利站的5年降水倾向率为 5.4155 mm，年际变化较剧烈（CV=0.38） ，见表1 。从 5年滑动平均曲线上可清楚看到1965-1970年降水有一次明显的增加（见图2b） 。20 世纪 50年代中期-80年代中期，降水距平以负距平值为主，20世纪90 年代初 -2000年降水量持续增加，见图3b。
31、从其小波变换图的高频部分上可看出，年际时间尺度在时间域上分布不均匀，降水周期由较短向较长周期发展。Carla bailey station precipitation tendency rate is 5.4155 mm, 5 years of interannual variation is sharp (CV = 0.38), as shown in table 1. Can clearly see from the moving average curve 5 years 1965-1970 precipitation has a obvious increase (see figure
32、 2 b). http:/ http:/ anomaly in the mid - 1950 - s to mid - 80 - s, with negative anomaly value is given priority to, in the early 1990 s - 2000, precipitation increased, as shown in figure 3 b. Figure from its wavelet transform of the high frequency part can be seen on the interannual time scale on
33、 the time domain, uneven distribution of precipitation cycle from shorter to longer development cycle.沙里桂兰克站的5年降水倾向率为7.7645 mm，增加趋势最为明显，见表1。其降水年际变化相对稳定。从距平值图2c 上可看出从20世纪50-80年代初期，降水距平以负距平值为主，即偏干旱年出现的频率大于偏湿润年。其中20世纪70-80年代降水偏少，80年代末期降水逐渐增加，一直到90年代末，以正距平值为主。从沙里桂兰克1957-2000年降水量变化趋势图上可见（图3c） ，总体上降水量呈上升趋
34、势。由小波变换图（图4c）可见其降水量在20世纪60-90年代初时，58 年时间尺度上的周期震荡最明显。Sand the laurel orchid gram station precipitation tendency rate is 7.7645 mm, 5 years increase trend is most obvious, as shown in table 1. Its precipitation interannual change is relatively stable. Analyzed the anomalies from figure 2 c can be seen
35、 from 50-80 - s of the 20th century, the precipitation anomaly is given priority to with negative anomaly values, namely, frequency of partial drought years is greater than the partial wet years. With fewer precipitation 70-80 - s of the 20th century, late 80 s precipitation increase http:/ http:/ g
36、radually, until the late 90 s, mainly are analyzed. The laurel orchid from the sand, 1957-2000 precipitation change trend is visible on the map (figure 3 c), the overall precipitation is on the rise. By wavelet transformation diagram (figure 4 c) is the precipitation in early 20 centuries 60-90 - s,
37、 5 8 years timescale cycle shocks the most obvious.乌鲁瓦提站的5年降水倾向率为 0.197 mm，增加趋势最不明显，年际变化最为稳定（CV=0.35 ） ，见表1 。20世纪50年代中期-60年代末，降水距平以正距平值为主（图3d） ，20世纪70年代初-80年代中后期，降水距平以负距平值为主。20世纪80年代以前，主要以5 年左右的周期为主，从大的周期尺度来看，整个时间序列来看，期间经历了由多少多3个循环交替（图4d） 。The ulug ata key station 5 years precipitation tendency rate
38、 is 0.197 mm, increased the most, the most stable interannual (CV = 0.35), as shown in table 1. In the mid - 1950 - s to 60 s, the precipitation anomaly is analyzed primarily (figure 3 d), the early 1970 s - 80 - s, precipitation anomaly is given priority to with negative anomaly value. Until the 19
39、80 s, mainly about 5 years cycle, from the perspective of a big cycle scale, the entire time series, experienced by many - less - much during the three cycles (FIG. 4 d).协合拉站的5年降水倾向率为 3.5610 mm，其滑动平均曲线波动http:/ http:/ ，20 世纪70年代以前以负距平值为主（图3e） 。其小波变换图上以5年周期为主（图 4e） ，20世纪70 年代中期以前还存在一个15年左右的长周期。Synergi
40、stic pull station 5 years precipitation tendency rate is 3.5610 mm, the moving average curve fluctuation is not obvious (see figure 2 e), until the 1970 s is given priority to with negative anomaly values (FIG. 3 e). Figure on the wavelet transform is given priority to with 5-year cycle (figure 4 e)
41、, until the mid - 1970 there is a long period of 15 years or so.3 初步结论Three preliminary conclusions3.1 源流区乌鲁瓦提、卡拉贝利、沙里桂兰克站降水年际变率较为接近。从各站多年降水量5年滑动平均曲线的变化过程大致可以看出：塔里木河流域3.1 origin area the ulug ata key, Carla bailey, sand the laurel orchid gram station precipitation interannual variability is more clo
42、se to. From many years precipitation stations moving average curve change process is roughly 5 years can be seen: the tarim river basin源流区的站点的降水量都存在逐步增多的趋势；各站都曾发生过几段多雨期和少雨期，且各段的持续时间并不固定。根据 Kendall 秩次相关检验结果来看，除沙里桂兰克外，其余4站的降水量增加趋势http:/ http:/ 在统计上都不明显。周期分析表明，各站的降水具有不同的长短周期震荡。小波分析很清楚地反映了各站降水量不同时间尺度震荡的
43、交替作用。在高频变化层次上，各站都存在510年左右的震荡周期，其中卡群、卡拉贝利的短周期震荡比较明显。沙里桂兰克、乌鲁瓦提两站降水量时间序列的高频部分在时间域上分布不均匀，具有明显的局部化特征。在低频变化层次上，沙里桂兰克、卡拉贝利、乌鲁瓦提三站的大尺度周期震荡比较明显。虽然各站的降水都有增加趋势，但在2000 年附近，卡拉贝利、沙里桂兰克、协合拉站的降水小波系数在低频部分为虚线，这预示着21世纪的最初几年，这几个站点可能处于一个降水偏少的时期。The origin area of the site precipitation are gradually increasing trend; A
44、ll stations, which have both had a few period of rainy and a little rain, and the duration of the paragraphs are not fixed. According to Kendall rank correlation test results to see, the laurel orchid gram in bed cleaning outside, the rest of the 4 stations rainfall increase trend in were not statis
45、tically significant. Cycle analysis showed that the precipitation stations with different length of periodic oscillations. Wavelet analysis is very clearly reflect the rainfall stations in different time scales alternate effect of shock. Obliged at high frequency change level, there are 5 10 years o
46、scillation cycles, one group of short cycle, Carla bailey shock was more obvious. Sand the laurel orchid gram, the ulug ata key two http:/ http:/ precipitation time series of high-frequency part of the uneven distribution in time domain, has the obvious localization characteristics. At low frequency
47、 change level, sand the laurel orchid gram, Carla bailey, the ulug ata key three stations of large scale are the obvious cyclical swings. Although rainfall stations has increased, but around 2000, the laurel orchid gram Carla pele, sand, synergistic station precipitation of wavelet coefficients in low frequency part is the dotted line, which bodes well for the first few years of 21st century, this site may be in a period of less rainfall.3.2 塔里木河流域自20世纪六七十年代以来，灌溉面积不断扩大，引水量不断增大，平原区的水蒸发量增大，空气湿度增大， （版权声明：本文转载自论文网在线() ，版权归原作者所有。 ）当出现有利的降水环
