1、111 月 JJ新版本，红底老版本，黄底1, housing future 房地产期货 版本 1future 的定义，举例有哪些 future,然后说也可以有 housing future,好处是稳定市场，降低风险。farming commodity 在没有 future 是 market 不稳定，有了 future 就好了类推说 housing 也会是这样。最后指出 housing 的特殊性，就是说房价差价大 版本 2美国的房产期货市场 future funding,非常长第一段,讲期货的出现和功能:记住期货使得生产者在波动的市场中利润更加有保证,同时市场更加稳定.(这里有题)2006 年出
2、现了房产期货市场.第二段,房产期货市场的主要参与者是银行/建筑商等,因为房产的供求周期长,不能迅速根据市场价格调整供给特点,所以出现期货能够保证他们的利润.第三段,举例美国的一种农产品在 60 年出现期货,也是为了解决这样一个问题,保证了农民的利益.(这个有问题,问这段的目的是什么 )第四段,说明房产与一般的期货产品不一样.因为同样的房子在不同的街区可能价格趋势不一样.有的社区价格在下降的同时,同样的房子在另一个社区可能价格上涨,(这里有题,问房产与其他商品期货的不同是什么)所以,期货市场都是以大都市的房产指数来作为期货产品,而不是单个房子.版本 3第二篇是 housing future。四段
3、第一段将期货的出现和作用。保 证生产者的利益，以及 稳定市 场。房地产期货跟其他期货品种不太一样的是，房地产期货 需要用房屋价格指数而不是 单套房屋的价格来作为标的。第二段将房地产期货的作用。因 为房地产投资的周期比较长 。如果没有期 货的话，那么市场好的时候开发商辛辛苦苦造房子，等他 们造好了，市 场可能就差了。2第三段将 future 对 farmer 的帮助。给他们提供将来的价格参考，减少他们的损失。同时稳定价格。第四段将 housing 其实不适合作 为房地产期货的标的，因为同一个 metropolitan area 内，不同 neighborhood 的方式价格可能相差很多（有一道很
4、 tricky 的题目）。所以专家提倡看metropolitan area 的平均房屋价格。 Metropolitan area 的平均房屋价格的波动只有单独的房子价格波动的 1/2。（这个地方没看太明白，不过没有题）题目有：1. future market 的作用： 稳定 market price。2. 第三段的作用：说明 future 给 farmer 提供了价格指导。有一些干扰选项a. 证明农产品和 housing future 的相似性3. 为什么 housing 不适合做 future 的标的。答案选：因为同一个 metropolitan area 内，不同 neighborhood
5、 的方式价格可能相差很多。有一个选项很有干扰性：不同 metropolitan area的房价可能相差很多。housing future（期货）以往机井综合版: 第一段：Future 的定义，future 好处：稳定市场价格，市场走向，降低风险。 第二段：期货在产业的运用，没有达到 预期的效果，房屋 远 期从造到问世时间很长，供给不能很好的对市场需求快速反应，投 资者不是完全根据房屋的价格去判断，而是根据城市的房价指数。 第三段：期货在产业的运用可以帮助养猪，在没有养猪的远 期的时候，猪很 难养；现在有了远期，猪户可以估计市场的走向。（很久以前农民把养猪，作为一种期货，但常常预期猪价格上涨，于
6、是一窝峰去养猪，导致产量多，价格降低，并未 获得预期的收益，后来弄明在一个什么类似预期调控的帮助下，懂得去平衡，所以市场比较稳定。 第四段：房屋期货跟养猪期货还不是一样，原因是房屋并不是单纯的商品。比如在同一个大城市，一个房子价格下降，而它周边的房子的价格可能上升。 Q1，文章 suggests 哪项是制约 house price future 发挥作用的因素？（大约是这样）ASW：比较确定，C，关于大都市和 neighborhood 的 house price change 没有连带关系，因为文章明确说，一个地方房价涨 跌的因素可能在旁边地区就不被考 虑了； Q2，关于 house pric
7、e future 的一个 problem 是什么，特点？ 期货不是商品（commodity ） 3Q3，作者明确建议哪个为改善 house price future 的方法？ ASW：不是很确定，选了建立 monthly house pricing index Q4：有道题问为什么要用猪这 个例子的，总计得有一道考到逻辑谬误的，我选 false analogue。附相关文章：A futures contract is a type of derivative 派生的 instrument, or financial contract, in which two parties agree to
8、 transact a set of financial instruments or physical commodities for future delivery at a particular price. If you buy a futures contract, you are basically agreeing to buy something that a seller has not yet produced for a set price. But participating in the futures market does not necessarily mean
9、 that you will be responsible for receiving or delivering large inventories of physical commodities - remember, buyers and sellers in the futures market primarily enter into futures contracts to hedge 防损 risk or speculate rather than to exchange physical goods (which is the primary activity of the c
10、ash/spot market). That is why futures are used as financial instruments by not only producers and consumers but also speculators. The consensus 共识 in the investment world is that the futures market is a major financial hub, providing an outlet for intense competition among buyers and sellers and, mo
11、re importantly, providing a center to manage price risks. The futures market is extremely liquid, risky and complex by nature, but it can be understood if we break down how it functions. While futures are not for the risk averse, 风险反感 they are useful for a wide range of people. 2，bird migration 鸟的迁移
12、版本 1migration 的鸟 的地盘有时和 resident 的鸟重合，重合 带来的结果是什么。 resident 的鸟比较有利，他们熟悉地形; migration 的鸟的 survival rate 就比较低。于是 migration 的鸟就去那些次等的地盘， 避开 residents.版本 2JJ 主人 700（V35）一篇讲的是迁徙的鸟在途中和本地的鸟抢地盘食物的文章 首先说迁徙的鸟在找食物，占领地盘等等许多方面都强于本地的鸟。然后又 说某些本地的 鸟没有受到太大的威胁，一位科学家解释了一下（记不大清了）但被证明不合理，然后另外一个解释出现， 说是本地的鸟提前就找到了比较好的地方而且
13、.（记不大清了反正是地利因素），因而 顺利度过这段时间。比 较需要留意的是 secondary(大概是这个词)说的是在竞争中不占 优势的一方43.员工激励版本 1有一篇讲员工激励的，讲 base salary 和奖金 （JJ 主人 730）第一段讲到种种事实表明很多因素跟企业的利润相关的 有个问题：怎么最好的激励员工，定位最后一句，选最后一个，当然是工资和奖金都长 还有个问题选员工一般不愿用 base salary 冒险，所以 bonus 激励效果更好 第二段讲到社会责任，讲到共同基金喜 欢这些有社会责任的公司，他们容易吸引投资者 版本 2如何提高员工积极性（工资还是奖金重要）的题.4. 物种
14、大灭绝原因版本 1第一段说 传统观点认为地球历史上一次物种大灭绝 P 是由于火山喷发引起的，然后说这种观点认为火山喷发有什么什么后果，然后怎么影响了生物，造成了大灭绝。但是有反对观点说火山喷发即使有影响，后果没有 这么强悍。第二段说有人提出了是因为二氧化碳持续增加，海平面下降，导致了大量陆地露出海平面，然后大气中的二氧化碳和氧气还是什么来着，既不清了，比例严重失衡，导致海洋生物以及近海生物生存困难，然后就都 灭绝了。1) 有个 except 题，选的答案 应该是第二段那几个并列部分里面没有的2) 还有一题问下面几个选项发生的顺序，也是在第二段里面出的版本 3生物灭绝的原因那篇，1)火山爆发对于
15、生物灭绝到底是什么 样的作用我选的是,a factor but not the most important2)哪个选项可以 support 文中一句话，那句话就是，即使火山爆发是个原因，也不足以那么强悍毁掉整个生物群。我选的是在某个地方发生的火山爆发对某些生物并没有什么影响。3）后面是细节题，大家要注意看 第二段里二氧化碳导致的一系列的 连锁变化，考了 2 题5版本 4 JJ 主人 710做到火山的那篇了，但是应该 不是 GWD 里的，因为不是完全说火山的，火山只是在第一段有说，全文是在讨论某某某为 什么会灭绝的，最开始 怀疑是火山的原因，最后得出的结论是火山只是其中一个因素。版本 5做到第
16、三题时，见到了这篇 JJ 里，没有且极 为 BH 的两屏 长题，心下惴惴想天啊这是想害死我伐？从这个阅读（23-24 题出 现的应该是）开始后面做的就比较差了。此文章段数较多，大概有 5-6 段。说的是对某一大类物种的起源的研究（T 打头的词，包括 worm 这些动物）。第一段，讲我们研究了这种 T 的起源， 发现比较复杂。第二段，对于 T 的起源的一种说法是 climate change 引发的。这个 T 的祖先应该是什么什么样的，但是现在找不到了，因为以前的环境不复存在也不可复制。所以这个说法站不住脚。第三段，另一种说法抨击了 climate change 而是由于什么什么，忘了。这种说法
17、能够找到例证，就是在现今 Hawaii 的地方仍然有其相似的后代存在。第四段，继续讲 Hawaii 这里的条件怎样怎样，忘了。好像是有冻土的问题，说是温度低，所以某些生物就存活了并适应了这种环境。 这里读得觉得跟 Hawaii 有些矛盾，但没有时间细读了。第五（六）段，最新的发现能够为 climate change 提供例证，所以 climate change 应该是对的，但是更多的研究还有待于发现。大致是 这样，但是 实在是生 词太多，可能有自己联想的部分，请大家翻翻关于 climate change 对于低等物种起源的解释 ，把生词搞一搞。问题大概是 3-4 题，不太难。Q1 主题题，我选
18、的是提出了两种对此物种起源不同的解释Q2 Climate change 的一个细节题，定位在第二段， 记不准Q3 关于 Hawaii 的一个细节题 ，定位在 讲到 Hawaii 那里Q4 似乎问得是 climate change 的证明问题，定位在最后一段，记不准（这道可能跟 Q2 是同一题，记不清楚了）一篇文章：The mass extinction of the marine 海洋的 life nearly 93 million years ago would have been most 6likely determined by the lack of oxygen in the oc
19、eanic waters as an intense underwater volcanic activity was triggered, says a study co-authored by Steven Turgeon of the University of Alberta. For a long time volcanism was thought to have been the culprit 犯人 of the catastrophe 灾难, although this is the first time researchers find direct evidence th
20、at magma 岩浆 cooling in the ocean waters was responsible for the mass killing.The results of the study may also point towards how the Earth reacts to an increase in the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The evidence indicates that at the time, the oceanic current circulation was i
21、ncredibly slow and the clime 气候 of the Earth much warmer than today, as the carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere raised by 3 to 12 times the current one, allowing palm trees to grow as far as in the northern regions of Alaska. “And now we have this magmatic pulse that happened at that time - a hu
22、ge one by what we can tell - and thats what caused this chain reaction to drive the oxygen from the ocean and cause this mass extinction,“ Turgeon said. The event, known today as OAE2, determined the decrease of oxygen levels in the oceanic and maritime waters, while the carbon dioxide concentration
23、 reached a point several times higher than the current one.Rock formations found in South America and Italy, which formed the ocean floor in the middle of a period in Earths history known as the Cretaceous seem to contain an osmium 化 锇 signature, remnant 残余,残迹 either from magmatism or from a meteori
24、te 陨石 impact. So far, there has been no evidence that any meteorite or other rock coming from space crashed on Earth during that respective period, although its presence can be accounted through a massive increase in the underwater volcanic activity, up to 50 times higher than today.The eruption mos
25、t likely originated in the Caribbean tectonic 地壳构造上的 plate and put large amounts of metals in the water, determining an increase in the growth of the phytoplankton 浮游植物.“When the plants died, this rain of organic matter fell through the marine water column and stripped 剥, 剥去 it of oxygen. And this a
26、noxic 缺氧的 event in the deep waters led to the extinction of the flora and fauna 动植物群 that lived on the seafloor,“ said Timothy Bralower of the Pennsylvania State University. According to the study, the excess amount of carbon dioxide remained in the atmosphere for as much as 20,000 years, before ret
27、urning to a concentration similar to the one we know today.“It is short-lived and it is real, and it provides some insight to how the atmosphere works. Today were just at the beginning, and we have really no way except for models to predict what is going to happen in the future,“ Bralower said about
28、 the possibility of a similar event taking place in the future. 7As far as Earth-shattering 粉碎 /破坏 events go, nothing comes close to the mass extinction that punctuated 强调/加强 the Permian period some 250 million years ago. Around 95 percent of marine species and 70 percent of land species were abrupt
29、ly wiped out. So sharp is the break in the fossil record at this geologic boundary that scientists in the 1800s believed they were dealing with two separate, unrelated starts to life on Earth. But what caused the Permian extinction is one of sciences greatest mysteries. In his newly published book E
30、xtinction: How Life on Earth Nearly Ended 250 Million Years Ago, Douglas Erwin explores the many theories put forth to explain the phenomenon, from plate tectonics to meteor strikes. Erwin, a pale biologist at the Smithsonian Institution in Washington, D.C., doesnt pinpoint 指出 a definite culprit in
31、the quarter-billion-year-old whodunit 侦探小说but he has a suspect. The extinction coincided with the million-year-long eruption of Siberian 西伯利亚的 flood basalts. A flood basalt is a giant volcanic eruption that coats vast stretches 一段路程 of land with basalt 玄武岩 lava 熔岩. The Siberian event was one of the
32、most massive volcanic events in the last 600 million years. Erwin suggests the eruptions may have produced everything from acid rain to global warming, which helped kill the majority of life on Earth. “The most likely explanation at this point is that the effects of the Siberian flood basalts were r
33、esponsible,“ Erwin said. No Crater 陨石坑 Until a decade ago scientists thought the Permian extinction was a continuous event that lasted for up to ten million years. But experts have now concluded that the die-offs occurred in two waves separated by eight million years or so. The second wave was far m
34、ore severe and may have happened over as little as 100,000 years. The relative speed of the extinction seems to rule out gradual processes, like plate tectonics, as the cause. Instead, clues point to a sudden, catastrophic event, such as an extraterrestrial 地球外的 impact. A giant asteroid 小游星, 小行星 tha
35、t slammed into 猛力抨击 , 冲击 Mexicos Yucatn Peninsula caused the last mass extinction on Earth, spelling the end of the dinosaurs some 65 million years ago. The entire global ecosystem collapsed as dust from the impact blocked out the sun and blanketed the planet with thick ash 灰烬, most scientists belie
36、ve. 8But no spike in iridium 化铱a metal that is rare on Earth but common in meteoritesor other telltale 证据 minerals have been found in the geological evidence from the time of the Permian extinction. Most important, no physical evidence of an impact, such as a gigantic crater 弹坑, during that period h
37、as been found anywhere on Earth. “Most of what we know about the Permian extinction is consistent with a meteor impact, but we dont actually have any evidence that thats what happened,“ Erwin said. Lava “Floods“ Instead, Erwin believes the answer can be found in the Siberian flood basalts. The large
38、st flood basalt region in the United States covers most of southeastern Washington State, stretching from the Pacific Ocean and into Oregon. The eruptions of the Siberian flood basalts, which lasted up to a million years, spilled 溢出, 溅出lava across an area larger than the continental U.S. Most notabl
39、y, the eruptions happen to coincide with the Permian extinction. The problem is that no human has ever seen this type of eruption, which is much larger than any regular volcanic eruption. Scientists dont know what the climactic effects of such an event might be. “Correlation is not causality,“ Erwin
40、 said. “We would like to know how this volcanic eruption actually killed stuff.“ Erwin suggests a series of possible effects, including acid rain, which may have been produced by the sulfur released by volcanoes. Geological evidence also shows that the volcanic event destroyed a lot of coal in the a
41、rea where the eruptions took place. The heating of the coal would have released carbon dioxide and methane 甲烷 into the atmosphere, producing a serious bout 回合,of global warming. “I think its all of those things put together that explained how the Earths life was wiped out,“ Erwin said. New Life Pete
42、r Ward is a biologist at the University of Washington in Seattle and author of an upcoming book, The Greenhouse Extinctions. 9He says the geologic record indicates that carbon dioxide concentrations skyrocketed immediately before the start of the extinctions and then stayed high for a few million ye
43、ars. “A byproduct of these major volcanic events would have been enormous volumes of carbon dioxide and methane entering the atmosphere, which would have caused a short but rapid interval of global warming,“ Ward said. But other scientists are not so sure. “Most of the explanations up until now have
44、 sort of been arm-waving without any real evidence,“ said Michael Rampino, an earth scientist at New York University in New York City. “We have no smoking gun for the Permian extinction.“ One thing is certain: Earth was a pretty bleak 荒凉的, 凄凉的 place to live at the time. “The recovery from the mass e
45、xtinction didnt even get started for four million years, and then it took another 10 to 20 million years for life to get diverse again,“ Erwin said. “Thats in remarkable contrast to most other mass extinctions, where the recovery is going within a few hundred thousand years.“ Erwin says “recovery“ m
46、ay even be the wrong word to describe the process. “Ecosystems of the Permian didnt recover, theyre gone,“ he said. “Life had to construct new ecological relationships. This was a turning point in the history of life on Earth.“ 5.生物呼吸二氧化碳版本 1我记得好像是说对于全球气候的预测是基于各种东东排出及吸收二氧化碳和氧气的量得出结论的，但是作者说这种预测 忽略了大量
47、的吸收二氧化碳并 产生氧气的生物的部分。然后 说这些地方主要是类似像寒带，苔原 带之类的地方，作者称之为二氧化碳的“sink”, 说在这些地方，即使是冬天最冷的时候，很多微生物还是能继续存活并且不断吸入二氧化碳，等到万物复苏的时候以其释放出来。说这 些地方占了很大面积，所以忽略这些地方作出的气候预测是不对的。原来人们预测二氧化碳的 时候都假设冬天植物不再呼吸。新的证据表明，他们还是呼吸的。(JJ 主人 760)老版本 1寒冷地方植物 CO2 的排出问题Q1 文章结尾有介绍一个 P 物质， 问它的作用。10选：P 让 co2 从 soil 表面上升到 ice 表面原文提到 soil is cov
48、ered by ice 以及 co2 beneath ice 的时候由 P 帮助运到 ice 表面，说明 ice下面就是 soil 表面了。Q2 topic 题我选：provide evidence to challenge an assumption (第一段开头就有将原来的 scientist assume一个 co2 排除量计算的模型。)老版本 2二氧化碳的文章。原本给出了一个 assumption 说二氧化碳在冬天会怎么样，因为土壤结冰。后来又有人提出了反对意见，说土壤里面有细菌，在冬天仍然会跟二氧化碳发生关系，在冰融化之后二氧化碳又会怎么怎么的，文章其实不难.(引自前人 JJ）老版本
49、 3我做到的题不知道是不是这个题。我的理解文章大意是 说 ：植物通过光合作用吸收二氧化碳，通过呼吸作用排出二氧化碳。本来有一种 assumption 认为在 北极等很寒冷的地方，温度在0 度之下啊，像植物阿微生物什么的被冰雪覆盖，就会被抑制呼吸作用。这样计算出全球被排出的二氧化碳数量。但是现 在有证据出来 challenge 这个 assumption，说在比如 W 的某地，虽然很冷，但是在冰雪下土壤里有微生物的呼吸作用。因此以上 assumption 计算出来的二氧化碳是被低估了。老版本 4短篇：讲极地产生 CO2 的问题文章大意：在科学界计算地球散发的 CO2 总量时，一般不计入极地的 CO2 量。但后来 发现，即使是在极地最寒冷的冬季，冰山下还是有很多小微生物在 释放 CO2 的，在极地等地区冬季 CO2 的释放总量大概是夏季的 1/3，所以，以前对地球 CO2 总量的计算是有误差的。6 .小鸟学习鸣叫类比小孩学说话版本 1第一段开始说以前的研究中发现 songbird 学习发声主要受到父母及周围环境影响，说这种学习很像婴儿学说话，先开始模仿，然后发展出具有自己特色的语言。如果让小鸟和其他种类的鸟呆在一起，那它会学会 这种 wrong word，如果不让他跟任何鸟接触，他最终会形成奇怪的声音，但好像是
