1、CHBPC2BZA4CKAYD6BTAXB6AIDCABA6A8CAA7BKBUABA6C8CUBFBKCHCUCBCGBWC0A7C2DEC0C4A6CBDFCGC8AOA4CKAZBTAOACCLB4A8C2BZA4CKCBCDCMBQAXA2CRC4ADA3AOD8ACASA9AXA4CBBUBDA1AWCYA1CMBJD5CHACA8ATCZCRAIBCCFA1ALCMBRC8AQBBA1AQCHBGC9C4D4ANCBCDCMACBNBGAKDDBKD5BQA6AKCMCBC2BZA4CKAZBTAOA8AYA1DBCUAJCUCYD0AHBQA6C4C4CBA5AFA8C0ASAV
2、C4CVCMAKDDC4CLB4AZC4BQAXCUCBA8DCA8C9C0CDAZA4AKCMC2BZA4CKAOA5A8BCCUA9D4A0BYB9CBB7CVBNBGCNCDCMA8BIBUC9CHDEA3AKDDCUCYC2BZCBBSB0A6CFA8BKC5ABCYD3C8AOBRCCACBZBVACCCAQCYD3AGA8BKB0BGCHBRCCA8C5CCAQCID5CQCYCBCUC0BDCJA8DABBA1CEC4BRB9C4BRCCACCNA9C8BWBYAYB7CVA4CKAZBTAOA8C2BZA4CKAZBTAOBWC7CZBKB0A4CKAOA8CZBEAICZBP
3、BDCBB6C7A8A7CHAYBPBDCBAZBTACC5B8DFCMCBA4CKAZBTAOA8D8CICAAZCMCZC2BZA4CKACBZCAA8B9CUBKD5AYC5CMCZC2DEBPBDCBAZBTAOACBIBUC5B7ABCACLCHA2AOA8BOCUBBD3B6D8BQA6CRBUCBCOA4A6ACCHCVDEASA1DEBNBGCVAHBNDABBCOD9C4CBBKBBCUCYC2BZA4CKAZBTBHDBACBKAOC4A8C2BZD3B6BOAWCZARC9ABB0CHA8CUD5BHDBCBAWD3AID3B6D8B9BOCUBKCLCKCHAZABA6
4、CBA4CKAOA8CUD5AOC4CVB9BQA6BCD0A8CUBPBQARA8D8C7A1A3DDC2BZBHDBAGAPBKAOC4A8CUAGCHAZC2BZCBA4CKAZBTCHAPAYC3AMAOA8A7BCB9AYBKCLA2BTBKA3ACA1BKC8AKCOBHDBA8CNBEAVC4CVA3CMDACMBAA0AIBPBDCHCBC2BZDGBZA8CYBEBCAGCGDJCBBOC9A6A8CHCVDGCOCUBPBDD8CHAZAYC2BZA8AABEAIBCA9BBBVD0ARA3AZBZCBAAAKA8BCB8AYBKCLBTBKACA4CKAZBTAOD2CH
5、BVCKCEBWA1BPBDARA3CACLAWD3A8C2BZA4CKBGCHDCAJACBGCHCOCUCBCKCEACAGD8AYCMRD7AZBYDACBA8ADA3DCDJBKCCAQCACLA4CKAAC5A8AODABBCVBQA6BWD0CMD3AHACBIBUBVCOBRALARRA8A7CHAYADA3DABBCOBHAMCBFortran,C, Matlab, S-plusBS SAS, SPSSCDD7AZA8DFC5AY R AYAI S, S-plusCBBVAUD8ABB0ATCRCBA8BJCZGNUC5A4CBBKC8A1CRA1C3AXA1DJBOBDBVA
6、TCBCSDBA8AYD6CMCZA4CKCKCEA8BGCUB7BKAHAACICVCBCOA9CHBGA8BCC9C4A9C4AUAIADA3COA9CBA4CKCKCED6CRCBBSAGA8BQD7BIB2CSDBCGCVAOCFABDEABB0CBA1AWACCQCYCBRACAGC8ADA3BPBDCED8C4BBBOAWDACJCBAUDJAQC1D8C3AXC8AGACBZCAA8BGCUCMAOCRD7AZBYDACBACAGA8DCCQ evim, evis, evirB8AYAZC7CMMatlab, S-plus, RDACBC2BZA4CKCSDBBAA8AOCMD8
7、AVDFAOBZACA3DDC2BZD3B6AYDFDEAIBKDDC2BZD3B6CBBVAUD8A8A1AOARA3BQA6D4ANCBAXB6A8AOAOBEBOC9C4CNB4AAABB0A8CHDEDGDGAFCDCZCBAGD0ACC5B8A8D6BTCBA4CKAZBTAOC9CHAIA3A8ADA3A4CKAOB9AWAID0D6BVCHA8CHAIA8BHACBNBGAKDDCBAOCUD5AYBIBUA1CECBA8DCA8CJBKCRCUC0A8B7CFDABBDAAQCHC8CBBWD8ACBNBGCHAYAZD6BIA4CKCHAHBBDACBA8CRAZCMCZCA
8、C8AOD8CBCFBKCFDIC8D1D3CFDIACCHAIDBCUCHAMA1D3AMA1A6BPAMA1BDAMA1D1D3AMA1AXCJAMCDD6BICBBKAMBNiC3BSBIA6BKD8BGCUBVBNBSB0A4CKBUAMACCQDCDABBA1C2BZA4CKBWDIC1A8C5BEBGBLBVBNCBBSB0A4CKBUAMA8B8C4BRDAD5BNBGACBGAQCCAQA9D4ANCBCUC0BDCJA8AZA1C2BZD3B6CUDIC1CBDABBDACJARBKCLA7DACBCQAAACCRCZBNBGA4BBCUCMA8CHC4CVAVDFALD6A
9、1CSAVCMCCAQBPBKCLA4CKAZBTAOA8CUD5C6ABDABBC4BRBBCOABCUC0BDCJCHB9C4ACA3B6BDA8AKCRA8D4ABA1A8AOAKD6A8CJBSA8C7DDA8B7BTA2A8CYB1A8DCCHAYA8B5B3CBCUCSA9BNBGCMAZB4ABCBBYDAC8CUCYAXB6ACBCD5BED8C7BWDC R. L. Smith,J. A. Tawn, S. G. Coles,CHAPC5AZBNBGAKDDCBADA3AKDCCHCBBPBDAYCRCQBUDACJCBA8CGC5AZBNCFAIASCBALD0C9C4DE
10、CQBUCBADA3B7D1ACBWDC A. Stephenson,BIBUAOCMA9CRCQDACJCBD6CMCZC2BZA4CKAZBTCB RACAGACAHBBAMAMCUCMA8A1BGCHAQCHCBBGBRBSCHAHA8B3BLDABBAAA2A3A3C2BOACANC6CJCZDEANBKAMD3AMA32005 CZ 3A6iiC5A0BUC7BTCD BKBO 11.1 AIBNAYC2BZ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.2 C2BZA4CKCBD9AN. . . . . . . . .
11、 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.3 C2BZD3B6CBCDCM. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5C7CPCD BTC8AFCKBFBX 92.1 AXCRCBC2BZD3B6. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92.1.1 C2BZAZCJCBCZDJC8AOA6CF . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92.1.2 C2BZAZCJCBABBKBZBWC8DC . . . . . . . . . . . .
12、. . . 152.2 AABPDIAQA7A1BPD5 TCZCNCHBUAA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 292.2.1 AABPDIAQA7A1BP. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 292.2.2 CNCHBUAAD5 VaR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 322.3 D4BYPareto AZCJ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 342.3.1 D4BYPareto AZCJ . . . . . . . .
13、. . . . . . . . . . . 352.3.2 D4BYPareto AZCJCBA6CF . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 362.4 AABFCYAZCJ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 392.4.1 AABFCYAZCJ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 392.4.2 AABFCYAZCJCBBWC8DC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 422.5 CNB4AZCJD5AOB4AZCJ
14、. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 442.5.1 CNB4AZCJD5AOB4AZCJ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 442.5.2 CACLAZCJBVD0CBC0BB . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 462.6 D5C2BZCUCYCBA4CKA7AZCJ. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 472.6.1 B9AGA4CKA7CBAZCJ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 472.6.2 C
15、NrBKB9AGA4CKA7CBC2CMAZCJ . . . . . . . . . . . . 492.6.3 C2D7AZCJD5C2D7CHBZAZCJ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51C7CXCD AFCKCXBAC3A7AKACCI 533.1 BPBDCBAXB5AZBT. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 533.2 Gumbel AZCJCBCUBPCRCK . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 543.2.1 BACRCK . . . . . . .
16、 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 543.2.2 C2BKC5CACRCK . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 553.2.3 COA6CRCK . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 603.3 D4BYC2BZAZCJCBCUBPCRCK. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 623.3.1 GEVCGDJCBDFDE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 623.3.2 C2BKC
17、5CACRCK . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 633.3.3 BSB0C3BACRCK . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65iii3.3.4 LBACRCK . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 663.3.5 Bayes CRCK . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 693.3.6 A1D1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
18、. 733.4 CGDJCBD3B5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 753.4.1 BSB0C6A8 P-PAAAA Q-QAA . . . . . . . . . . . . . 753.4.2 CWADD3B5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 803.4.3 C5CABQD3B5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 823.4.4 AKDC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
19、 . . . . . . . . . 853.5 ABBKBZBWC8DCDHDBC8CBCRCK . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 953.5.1 A1D9CUBPCRCK . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 963.5.2 B4CMC8AZB8BPCRCK . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 993.5.3 BFCYAZCJCBCRCK. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1003.6 D4BY Pareto AZCJCBCRCK
20、. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1013.6.1 GPDCWADAZCJB4CM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1013.6.2 ANBZCBALC0 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1023.6.3 CUBPCRCK . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1043.6.4 AKDC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106C7DGCD D
21、0ANBKBPC3AFCK 1184.1 AGD0AGABCBBVBNBSD1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1184.1.1 AGD0AGAB . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1184.1.2 ARCHCGDJCBBVBNA6CF . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1214.2 AABFAGD0AGABCBC2BZAZBT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1224.2.1 AABFAGD0AGABCBC2BZ
22、. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1224.2.2 C2BZC2C3CBCRCK. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1284.2.3 AABFAGD0AGABCBCUBPCRCK . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1334.2.4 AKDC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1344.3 AVAABFAGD0AGABCBC2BZ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1384.3.
23、1 CGDJCBCOAP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1384.3.2 A4CKAFDI . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1414.3.3 AKDC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1434.4 C2BZCBCPDEACCGDJ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1514.4.1 CPDEACCBBVBNBSD1 . . . . . . . . . .
24、 . . . . . . . . 1534.4.2 DIANBZCPDEAC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1584.4.3 A4CKDFCG . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1604.4.4 D5AOCRC2BZCGDJCBCYC5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1644.4.5 CNCHBUAACRCK . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167C7ARCD CMC8AFCK 1705.1 A3D
25、DAZCJCBBVBNBSD1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170iv5.1.1 CQCYAFCOA1BPC8AOA6CF . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1705.1.2 DFCMCBA9DDCQCYAFCOA1BP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1745.1.3 A9DDAZCJCDC0COAAAZB8BPCO . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1765.1.4 CQCYA6C8AODCA7. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
26、 . . . 1765.1.5 B4CMCQCYA6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1825.2 A3DDC2BZCBDFCGAO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1875.2.1 AZA7ABBKBZCGDJ. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1875.2.2 A9DDDIANBZCGDJ. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1955.2.3 CPDEACCGDJ . . . . . . . . .
27、 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1995.2.4 AFCOC0A7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2035.3 A9DDC2BZAZCJCBCUBPCGDJ. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2095.3.1 Logistic DJ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2105.3.2 AOCRCUBPCGDJ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2125.4 A3DDC2
28、BZAZCJCBCUBPCGDJ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2145.4.1 Logistic CGDJ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2145.4.2 B5D7logistic CGDJ. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2165.4.3 AGD0AGABlogistic CGDJ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2175.5 A4CKAFDI . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
29、 . . . . . . 2195.5.1 CUBPCRCK . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2195.5.2 AVCUBPCRCK. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2205.6 C2BZAZCJCGBWCXA7CBD9A6. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2255.6.1 A9DDC2BZAZCJCGBWCXA7CBD9A6 . . . . . . . . . . . . 2265.6.2 A3DDC2BZAZCJCGBWCXA7CBD9
30、A6 . . . . . . . . . . . . 229D1BTBT RCVAUAXC3D6C0 232A.1 RD4AKC8ALD8 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 232A.2 A1BP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233A.3 BPBD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 236A.4 AKDC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
31、. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238BGBCAMB4 244vC9BUCE BMBPBNBGCZBEAXB6AIDCABA6A8CAA7BKBUABA6C8D9A6C2BKCHCUCBCGBWAVDBACDCCQAMBUA1BVA4A1CMBJA1ASB5CDA1CADIA8AXCJA1ALCMAOD8CUCID5CHCYCBCNBKC0B2A8C3CACIC8C5A4ADD4CBCGBWALBUCDCDACC2DEAVDBCUAGBQBODFBJCICGCNBEA8D9AND8A8AICFBUD5A1CADICBDHALD7BMCHA8BCBEA9CHDCCUCYC
32、MAGA8BCD5BDDADHAACMAWA9AWAXABA6DECBC2DEAVDBA8A7CGA3CBBODFCHCYB6BVBMCMAWBSBCBEC8CRACCQACBBBCD5DHAADCD3CICLCDCCA1CADIABA6CBC4CVA6A8AYC2BZD3B6COAXB6CBBHDBBVBKACAIA0CKBUDABUBDCHACAGA8A0CKBBABCYDFAMBUC8BVA4CBABA6ACALCMB2DCCBB5CFAYCRDAB0A1BLB0A1CTB2BSD7A9CVC5CBCCD6C8ATCBA8232DACJA9ADA3CRCZD8BLC5DJCABKC0B2
33、C3CADBCOBKCKC1AGD9CBDCDJACD3D3BKC8A7B2CBBKAWB8B2CFA7A8AABECDC8CYD3CPA2AGCYD3CACLC2C3A8CQA9B8B2ARA1BVB8B2BPA1A5AKBEC2DFBPA1BKB8B2CZCDAYB8AICIC8BUAAA6CQBKAWB8B2CFA7DBCRC3DDA7BRC8ACC0D4DFD2BEAXBDCRA1CAC8AOCXCBBKB5A8BCAYA0CKACBVACBEC0AXCBC5C8ACCZC5CMA8CGACBKC8BWDBALDBCBA0CKBGBVACC0AXCACLCHA2CZDJCBB7DCBE
34、BTAGDHDHD0C7BKAVBSAQAPCHACCBA0CKC0DCBVACDIDECIC8C4CVCBABC0BUB8AGBJAGCACVDCDBACD6A8C0CBCMAWBGAYBKDBCHAODFCBAVBJAGCQACA0CKAHBCCFD9A9CDA8BCD5D8AYD5C2BZCUCYCBBHDBACC4D8C2BZA4CKAIBUBDA1AWCYA1CMBJA1CHACA1B8B2A1DCDBC8ALCMA1BCCFA1D1D3CDAOC4CUCNBECDCMACDCD3AYADA3C3AMCHAHBBCBBKCVCNBECHAHACDCD3B8AYBRA1DEC2CBD0
35、D6CRBTC9A1B6CRCBA9AHACCQDCBEAFDICICLBBB6ABA6DECBC2DEAVDBAIB6CRABA6CBC4CVA6A8A7AIBQB6BJCBDHAACHB9BOCUCMAWC4CQB8AWCNCBC2DECHCYACBVCZDEATD3B6A8C2BZD3B6DACJA9C4BRAJAFCBCGDJCRAHBNBCCZBHDBACAVD1A1CGDJCBAJAFA8BKB0AGAQA4CVDCA8A3C9AGA3CVDCA8BWAYAMAZC4A8C2BZCGDJCDBPAYABA6AOA8B9B6AWBDC4AWCNCBDGB2AC1.1 D3C0D9AG
36、CLAIAXB6C2BZBVB4A8B9CBBEC2BHBKC8ABCEBNCBBHDBAIBNAYC2BZA8BSBBAIBNB9CBC2BZAYBIBUBWDIC1CBACBBBSB0BWBYD8DJA8C2BZC5ASCGBWC0A7CBC2DEC0C4A6AGBBA4CKBWBYD8DJA8C2BZAYC2BPBDC7ADCHCBABBKBZBSABD2BZACC5B8BPC8BPBDC7D8CUC2BZA8AVD1C2BZD5C7ADCHAOCRBPBDCBD7C7C4CVCHBKACAKCOD8A8BCC8D7C7C0BNCZBPBDC7ADCBD5CGB9BNA7A8BPBDC7
37、A5BKA8AOCHCBBPBDA5A3A8ABBKBZB8A5BKA8A7ABD2BZB8A5D2ACBWAIAWC5BWBYD8A8AIBNAYC2BZAYBKC8AICSBXBHATCBBHDBA8B8CQAIBNAYC4DFBZBKB9AC V. Barnett AA T. Lewis AI 6 CHBXBZCOCUCBCHAHBQAXALA8AQA8AIC4DFBZAXB6CBCNBEBHDBCHA8C5A9C8BKC8ABD4BTCBAIBNAYC4DFBZACAIC2BZA4CKAXB6CBBHDBCHA8B9CBAYDFDEBKC8C2BZCBBPAMCGDJACCQDCBQB
38、U1D0D3BPBDCOBDBBCBAZCJA6A5BVAZCLAZCJA7A8BIBUB8C4BRAZC7C9C4ABBKBZC8ABD2BZCBAWC9CGDJACBWAIBKA3BPCDCMCHA8D0D3BPBDCOBDBBCBAZCJAYB6BUCBA8C5B8BIBUC5CVC9C4C2BZCBDEATAZCJA8A7CHAYAWC9AZCJACAICDCMCHA8BCCQCDCZBEBTBPBDCUBQA6BKCBD5CGACA7BCAKCOBRCCA8AIBKA3BPBJCIC8C2BZCBDEATAZCJDACJA9BKC8D4BTA8BIBWCBCGDJA8DFDEAIB8
39、BVAUD8CBA4CKAZBTAOBGBQC9C4C8CYACC2BZA4CKD3B6B8AYAZD0D3C4CBBVCZCIC8B9BNA7CBC2BZDFDEBKC8BSB0CGDJA8BWBVACBGBLCID5BVBNDHDB (1) D0D3A1CYAYCGBWC0A7AG (2) BCC8CGBWC0A7CBCLAZCJCDBCAGCHC0A8BSBBCQDCCUCGACC0B2A8CDBPC4BRAXBPBDC0BBBRD5DCC5BCCLC0B2BNCRCBCHCUAG(3) D0D3C4CBC2BZ(CHAYD0D3BPBDBNA1)AYD9DECBA8B8ASAAA1CG
40、DJARA3CQCDCBA8BOACC2BZA4CKAZBTAOBWC7CZBKB0A4CKAOCZBEAICZBPBDCBB6C7A8A7CHAYBPBDCBAZBTACB9CBBEB6C7C4CUDHC5BMA5AZC2BZCBD0D3BPBDA8CRBUBIA7D8BLD0C8BVBNDHDBA8BCCUBKCYCBBPA7D5CGACCHA2DFCGAOA1BPBDCUCHA2BEBTA1C2BZCBAXCRCGDJA8CBD5ALB2B9BNABBKBZCBDEATAZCJCGDJA8C5CUA2CZABBKBZA3BSA2BWAAABBKBZA3CRC4BRAHAZC2BZCBD0
41、D3BPBDAGA7 r C8ABBKB9AGA4CKA7CGDJCHA8ASC4DGBPCZBSBPC8BWAACUCB r C8ABBKBZD8AHAZC2BZCBD0D3BPBDAGA1ANBZCGDJA8DIDEANBZCBB4 (POT)C4BRAHAZC2BZCBD0D3BPBDAGA1CPDEACCGDJA8B9AIA1D2DFCPBWD8D8CBCPAAA8AVAR Poisson DEACA8A1CQCDCBC5CAA1BPD8CUBKCYCBCLCJACBBAVC4CVA3CMDACMBAA0AIBPBDCHCBDGBZCRBYA8AQC4CBCDCLCGDJD8BQAXC
42、RCGDJA6A8BWBHDBAICZA1ANBZCGDJCQACC9CYANBZA8CDASCDCVCMAI r C8ABBKB9AGA4CKA7CGDJCHA8CQACC9CYr; A1CPDEACCGDJA8CQACC9CYA1D2DFCPCBBWD8ACALC0ANBZAYB8ADAZA8CYC5C4C2BZD3B6CDCMCBA8AZA8CBAYB8CVC9C4BKC8ADD3CBAFDIACCQDCALC0A9DEC0CBANBZA8BCDGAOC9B8CHCBBPBDCDASD8AWAIANBZBRC8A8CSBRABBHCDCUCBAHCMA8C5CUC2DCCDC8BQCOA
43、LANBZBKCBBPBDA8CRCVCMCZC2BZCBA4CKAZBTA8APA8DGBZCWAXAGA7BCBPBDCUDCA8AFB6BGCHCQBFCYACA7DECHCBANBZA8CYCHBCADC2BZCGDJCBD3B6BEBTACC5B8A1BKC8AKCOBHDBA8AABEAIBCA9BBBVD0ARA3AZBZCBAAAKA8CNAVC4CVAJAZCMDACMBAA0AIBPBDCHCBDGBZA8CYCVAIAZBZBUAAD8BCAGCGDJCBBOC9A6ACBNBGAKDDCBCDCLANBZALC0A8B8AYBCB9BKCLBTBKACCSCQA2D5A
44、SA3D5CBBKA0ADA8AXBTBKCRB8CHAQCRCBAYBKDBAWCACBD5BTA9A8A7DFCFBSADAGCHAQBKDBCUCMCBAVCAAC1.2 AGCLA8ALC4BID5AIA4CKAMABB0D9ANCHA8A4CKAMCRB9CBD4BWC4CBA1CAAYCGBWC0A7C4CVC0BZCBCZDCA8CHBKDECBC2CYDFBYCUAVDBA8C5B8C2BZA4CKABB0CBD9ANCQA1A6DGACD9AND8A8ABANC4DBCBC4 1709 CZ Nicolaus Bernoulli D6B6CBBKC8AWCEBHDB nC8A
45、2AMCFAItCZCUC2APA8COBNAABPBXCRA8ABDHBBBBCBCZAMAYA3DCACCQDGBCC8BHDBD4B2AZBKDHDHDCAZtCBBWCOD8CBnC8CGBWCPD2DFCPCBAABPABBKBID2AYA3DCACAIA4CKBDCJCHA8ABAND6B6C2BZAY 1824 CZJ.B.J.Fourier CBBKA4BDB4A8CQCHAZD5BOCVAZCJBPBZA5D2A9A9C8C3DDD7CBAAAOCECBD0BKCBBSB0BKA4AZBOAMAZ2BVBKA8CB P|X| 32 1/50000,C5B8C4CVALC4AT
46、B3BCCZD0D3ACCZC5CMA8AMA1DFCB 3DFASA8CHAZBOCVB9BNCBCUD4ALAXCDAID2BPBZBOBLD0C8C3DDD7CUACAKCOD8A8BCD5BXD8CHCQALD6A81877 CZHelmertC2AQA8BCCZBHDBCBBOC9DACDBPD5B9BNA7CUCYACC5AZBZB9BNA7BUCZBLBPAGA8CUCGA3CBBWBKAOB9BNABBKBZAQCHAIAZCJCBB4CMA8BOCVA5DCCBB9BNABBKBZBGCDBPBUCZBLBPACC5B8A8BBD3B6D8BXA8B9BNABBKBZD5A5
47、DCBPBZCBBID2BKCZCGBKCWCYDFBPCBAVDBCKB6BEABA6AC 3DFASA1D2B9BNCRBXA8CUCPBCBAAGA7A1BKB9BNA8CYCUCGC7ACC2BZD3B6B8AYC6DAC2BZBKD2D5B9BNA7BVD0CYC5CBD3B6ACC2BZCBATBOD3B6BVAPCZC8DBA8 1922 CZA8 L. von Bortkiewicz AXB6A9BOCVAZCJCBB9BNC2D7 11,BCC8BHDBCBBWBYAICZC3CCBKCRA8CRA1BOCVAZCJCBB9BNABBKBZAYBKC8DECBCGBWC0A7
48、A8BGCUDECBAZCJA8C5B8Bortkiewicz AYCNBKC8CCC9DAAQC2BZBHDBCBA4CKAMCRAC 1923CZA8C8DBCBR. von MisesAXB6A9B9BNABBKBZCBALAS 129, BCAYAXB6BOCVB9BNC2BZCBDEATAZCJCBBVAPACC2BZD3B6CBBEBOABB0AY E. L. Dodd AIA2CZCBCHAHA8CQB9CBAXB6A9BKB0AZCJCBB9BNABBKBZ50. ABCNBECBAFDCAY 1925 CZ L. H. C. TippetCBBOCVA5DCCACLB9BNA
49、7CBABBKBZC8CQCDBSB0C5A1B9BNAABPC2D7C5 197. 1927 CZA8 M. Frechet ABC5A9CNBKA4CYCZABBKBZCBDEATAZCJCBB6BD 67,C2AQCRA1CHA2AZCJA8BWCUCICLCMA2A6CFCBABBKBZC4BRCUCQA2CBDEATAZCJA8B9DAAQA9ABBKBZBFCYDFD3ACBWCQCBBDB4ABC5AICCCU Krakow AQB3CBBKB1ALBWD8A8A7BCCLAZCJCBCZDJCHAYAIDFCMA8C5A7BOCUC9C4CDCUCBCNB4ACB9CZA81928CZA8R. A. FisherD5 L. H. C. TippetABC5CBBDB465,CHAICHAZAYC2BZAZCJDEATDFD3CBBVAUA8CQBUCHAPD5 FrechetD9DECMB9C4 Frechet AZCJA8A7BCB9COAP
