1、Modern MacroeconomicsIn loving memory of Brians parents, Joseph and Margaret Snowdon, andHowards father, Philip M. VaneModernMacroeconomicsIts Origins, Development and Current StateBrian SnowdonPrincipal Lecturer in Economics in the Newcastle BusinessSchool, Northumbria University, Newcastle upon Ty
2、ne, UKHoward R. VaneProfessor of Economics in the School of Accounting, Financeand Economics, Liverpool John Moores University, Liverpool,UKEdward ElgarCheltenham, UK Northampton, MA, USA Brian Snowdon, Howard R. Vane 2005All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored ina
3、 retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic,mechanical or photocopying, recording, or otherwise without the priorpermission of the publisher.Published byEdward Elgar Publishing LimitedGlensanda HouseMontpellier ParadeCheltenhamGlos GL50 1UAUKEdward Elgar Publishing, Inc.
4、136 West StreetSuite 202NorthamptonMassachusetts 01060USAA catalogue record for this bookis available from the British LibraryISBN 1 84376 394 X (cased)1 84542 208 2 (paperback)Typeset by Manton Typesetters, Louth, Lincolnshire, UK.Printed and bound in Great Britain by MPG Books Ltd, Bodmin, Cornwal
5、l.vContentsList of figures xList of tables xiiiPreface xivAcknowledgements xvii1 Understanding modern macroeconomics 11.1 Macroeconomic issues and ideas 11.2 The role of economic theory and controversy 31.3 Objectives, instruments and the role of government 71.4 The Great Depression 91.5 Keynes and
6、the birth of macroeconomics 131.6 The rise and fall of the Keynesian consensus 151.7 Theoretical schizophrenia and the neoclassical synthesis 211.8 Schools of thought in macroeconomics after Keynes 241.9 The new political macroeconomics 291.10 The renaissance of economic growth research 322Keynes v.
7、 the old classical model 362.1 Introduction 362.2 Classical macroeconomics 372.3 Employment and output determination 382.4 Says Law 452.5 The quantity theory of money 502.6 Keyness General Theory 542.7 Interpreting the General Theory 572.8 Keyness main propositions 582.9 Keyness analysis of the labo
8、ur market 652.10 Keyness rejection of Says Law 692.11 Keynes and the quantity theory of money 692.12 Three important interpretations of Keynes 702.13 The new Keynes scholarship 752.14 Causes and consequences of the Great Depression 762.15 How to pay for the war 822.16 Keynes and international macroe
9、conomics 832.17 Keyness legacy and the classical revival 85Interview with Robert Skidelsky 913 The orthodox Keynesian school 1013.1 Introduction 1013.2 The orthodox Keynesian school 1023.3 The ISLM model for a closed economy 1023.4 Underemployment equilibrium in the Keynesian model 1143.5 The ISLM m
10、odel for an open economy 1233.6 The Phillips curve and orthodox Keynesian economics 1353.7 The central propositions of orthodox Keynesian economics 144Interview with James Tobin 1484 The orthodox monetarist school 1634.1 Introduction 1634.2 The quantity theory of money approach 1654.3 The expectatio
11、ns-augmented Phillips curve analysis 1744.4 The monetary approach to balance of payments theory andexchange rate determination 1874.5 The orthodox monetarist school and stabilization policy 192Interview with Milton Friedman 1985 The new classical school 2195.1 Introduction 2195.2 The influence of Ro
12、bert E. Lucas Jr 2205.3 The structure of new classical models 2235.4 Equilibrium business cycle theory 2365.5 The policy implications of the new classical approach 2425.6 An assessment 267Interview with Robert E. Lucas Jr 2726 The real business cycle school 2946.1 Introduction: the demise of new cla
13、ssical macroeconomicsmark I 2946.2 The transition from monetary to real equilibrium businesscycle theory 2956.3 Real business cycle theory in historical perspective 2976.4 Cycles versus random walks 3006.5 Supply-side shocks 3036.6 Business cycles: main features and stylized facts 3046.7 Real busine
14、ss cycle theory 3076.8 The structure of a real business cycle model 309vi Modern macroeconomicsContents vii6.9 Technology shocks 3136.10 A real business cycle aggregate demand and supply model 3156.11 Calibrating the model 3206.12 Real business cycle theory and the neutrality of money 3226.13 Measur
15、ing technology shocks: the Solow residual 3256.14 Real business cycle theory and the stylized facts 3266.15 The policy implications of real business cycle theory 3306.16 Criticisms of real business cycle theory 3326.17 Great Depressions: a real business cycle view 3366.18 An assessment 338Interview
16、with Edward C. Prescott 3447 The new Keynesian school 3577.1 The fall and rise of Keynesian economics 3577.2 A Keynesian resurgence 3587.3 New Keynesian economics 3617.4 Core propositions and features of new Keynesian economics 3637.5 Nominal rigidities 3667.6 Dornbuschs overshooting model 3767.7 Re
17、al rigidities 3787.8 New Keynesian business cycle theory 3967.9 Hysteresis and the NAIRU 4017.10 New Keynesian economics and the stylized facts 4087.11 Policy implications 4097.12 Keynesian economics without the LM curve 4237.13 Criticisms of new Keynesian economics 4287.14 An assessment of new Keyn
18、esian economics 431Interview with N. Gregory Mankiw 4338 The Post Keynesian school 451Paul Davidson8.1 Introduction 4518.2 The significance of the principle of effective demand 4538.3 Taxonomy 4548.4 Keyness taxonomic attack on Says Law 4558.5 Can relative price changes induce D2to fill the gap? 457
19、8.6 Investment spending, liquidity, and the non-neutrality ofmoney axiom 4598.7 What type of an economic system is irrational enough to usemoney contracts? 4618.8 Information, decisions and uncertainty 4638.9 Classifying decision-making environments 4648.10 Keynesian uncertainty, money and explicit
20、money contracts 4688.11 Conclusions 4729 The Austrian school 474Roger W. Garrison9.1 The Mengerian vision 4749.2 The intertemporal structure of capital 4759.3 Saving and economic growth 4799.4 The savinginvestment nexus 4829.5 The market for loanable funds 4899.6 Full employment and the production p
21、ossibilities frontier 4929.7 The capital-based macroeconomic framework 4969.8 Saving-induced capital restructuring 4989.9 Keyness paradox of thrift revisited 5019.10 The Austrian theory of the business cycle 5039.11 A Keynesian downturn in the Austrian framework 5099.12 Inflation and deflation in th
22、e Austrian theory 5139.13 Policy and reform 51510 The new political macroeconomics 51710.1 Introduction: political distortions and macroeconomicperformance 51710.2 Political influences on policy choice 51810.3 The role of government 52110.4 Politicians and stabilization policy 52310.5 Alternative ap
23、proaches to the political business cycle: anoverview 52510.6 The Nordhaus opportunistic model 52610.7 The Hibbs partisan model 53210.8 The decline and renaissance of opportunistic and partisanmodels 53510.9 Rational political business cycles 53710.10 Rational partisan theory 53810.11 Opportunistic a
24、nd partisan behaviour: a synthesis 54510.12 Politics, time inconsistency, credibility and reputation 54610.13 Policy implications of politico-economic models: anindependent central bank? 54910.14 The political economy of debt and deficits 55410.15 Political and economic instability: are they related
25、? 55510.16 The political economy of economic growth 55610.17 Political barriers to economic growth 56210.18 The size of nations 564viii Modern macroeconomicsContents ix10.19 Conclusion 565Interview with Alberto Alesina 56711 The renaissance of economic growth research 57911.1 Introduction 57911.2 Th
26、e Great Divergence 58011.3 In praise of economic history 58411.4 Back to the long run 58511.5 Why is economic growth so important? 58911.6 Modern economic growth in historical perspective 59311.7 The stylized facts of growth 59511.8 Proximate v. fundamental sources of growth 59611.9 The HarrodDomar
27、model 59811.10 The Solow neoclassical growth model 60211.11 Accounting for the sources of economic growth 61211.12 The convergence debate 61411.13 Beyond the Solow model 62211.14 Endogenous growth: constant returns to capital accumulation 62511.15 Endogenous growth: the economics of ideas 62711.16 A
28、n augmented Solow model: a neoclassical revival? 63211.17 Focusing on the fundamental causes of growth 63311.18 Institutions and economic growth 63511.19 Trade and economic growth 64711.20 Geography and growth 65211.21 Growth in history: in search of a unified theory 65411.22 The ideal conditions fo
29、r growth and development:rediscovering old truths 657Interview with Robert M. Solow 660Interview with Paul M. Romer 67312 Conclusions and reflections 69512.1 Introduction 69512.2 Twentieth-century developments in macroeconomics:evolution or revolution? 69612.3 Is there a consensus on key macroeconom
30、ic issues? 703Bibliography 708Author index 791Subject index 803xFigures1.1 Unemployment in the US and UK economies over the courseof the twentieth century 21.2 Inflation in the US and UK economies over the course of thetwentieth century 32.1 The aggregate production function (a) and the marginalprod
31、uct of labour (b) 402.2 Output and employment determination in the classical model 432.3 The classical interest rate mechanism and Says Law 482.4 The determination of the price level in the classical model 532.5 The determination of output and employment 642.6 Keynes and involuntary unemployment 672
32、.7 Aggregate demand failure in the US economy, 192933 783.1 Demand for speculative balances 1053.2 The generalized ISLM model 1053.3 Expansionary fiscal policy 1073.4 Expansionary monetary policy 1083.5 The government budget constraint and bond-financed fiscalexpansion 1113.6 The general case with t
33、he Keynes effect 1153.7 The liquidity trap case 1173.8 The interest-inelastic investment case 1193.9 The MundellFleming/Keynesian model 1273.10 Fiscal expansion under imperfect capital mobility 1283.11 Monetary expansion under imperfect capital mobility 1293.12 Fiscal expansion under (a) and (b) imp
34、erfect and (c) perfectcapital mobility 1313.13 Monetary expansion under (a) imperfect and (b) perfectcapital mobility 1343.14 The Phillips curve 1363.15 The relationship between wage change and excess demand forlabour 1383.16 The relationship between excess demand for labour andunemployment 1393.17
35、The relationship between excess demand for labour, vacancyand unemployment rates 141Figures xi3.18 The link between the Keynesian model and wage and priceinflation 1434.1 The evolution of orthodox monetarism 1644.2 The classical case 1724.3 The Keynesian case 1724.4 The expectations-augmented Philli
36、ps curve 1774.5 The trade-off between inflation and unemployment 1794.6 The outputemployment costs of reducing inflation 1835.1 The structure of new classical models 2245.2 The welfare implications of equilibrium in a competitivemarket 2315.3 The effects of anticipated and unanticipated changes in t
37、hemoney supply on the level of output and the price level 2435.4 Consistent and optimal equilibrium 2535.5 Game played between the monetary authorities and wagenegotiators 2555.6 The relationship between average inflation and central bankindependence 2615.7 The evolution of new classical macroeconom
38、ics 2696.1 The path of output in the trend-reverting case 3026.2 The path of output where shocks have a permanent influence 3026.3 Output and employment fluctuations due to a technologyshock 3146.4 The ISLM model with flexible prices 3156.5 The real business cycle aggregate demand and supply model 3
39、166.6 The impact of a technology shock 3186.7 The impact of a government expenditure shock 3196.8 The impact of temporary and permanent technology shocks inthe real business cycle model 3206.9 The annual growth rates of technology and output in the USA,195585 3276.10 Supply shocks and the price leve
40、l 3297.1 Nominal wage contracts, rational expectations and monetarypolicy 3687.2 Price adjustment under monopolistic competition 3737.3 Menu costs v. price adjustment 3747.4 Near rationality 3757.5 The efficiency wage and the Solow condition 3867.6 Involuntary unemployment in the efficiency wage mod
41、el 3877.7 The shirking model 3917.8 The impact of an aggregate demand shock in the newKeynesian model 3977.9 The risk-based aggregate supply curve 4007.10 Standardized unemployment rates for North America (USAand Canada) and OECD Europe, 197298 4027.11 The natural rate view of the relationship betwe
42、en actualunemployment and equilibrium unemployment 4047.12 The hysteresis view of a time-varying NAIRU 4067.13 Bank of England inflation report fan chart for February 2004:forecast of CPI inflation at constant nominal interest rates of4.0 per cent 4177.14 UK inflation and inflation expectations, Oct
43、ober 1991October 2003 4187.15 Derivation of the AD curve 4257.16 Adjusting to long-run equilibrium in the ADIA model 4279.1 The intertemporal structure of production 4769.2 A possible temporal pattern of consumable output 4809.3 Intertemporal capital restructuring 4819.4 Time discount and derived de
44、mand 4889.5 The loanable funds market 4909.6 The production possibilities frontier 4959.7 A capital-based macroeconomic framework 4969.8 Saving-induced economic growth 4989.9 A saving-induced recession 5029.10 A policy-induced boom and bust 5059.11 An investment-led collapse into recession 51110.1 I
45、nfluences on policy choice 52010.2 A politico-economic model 52410.3 The Nordhaus political business cycle model 52910.4 The long-run solution in the Nordhaus model 53010.5 The Hibbs partisan model 53310.6 How inequality may adversely affect growth 56111.1 The impact on per capita income of differen
46、tial growth rates 59111.2 The great divergence 59111.3 The neoclassical aggregate production function 60511.4 The Solow growth model 60811.5 Technological progress 61011.6 Transition dynamics 61811.7 Conditional convergence 61911.8 Proximate and fundamental sources of growth 634xii Modern macroecono
47、micsxiiiTables1.1 The Great Depression 121.2 Growth of per capita GDP, world and major regions, 18201998 181.3 Growth rates (GDP), 18201998 181.4 Unemployment rates, 19642002 191.5 Inflation rates, 19642002 202.1 US GDP, prices and unemployment: 192933 782.2 Keynes and the international economic sys
48、tem, 1944 852.3 Most-cited macroeconomists: 192030 862.4 Most-cited macroeconomists: 19315 862.5 Most-cited macroeconomists: 19369 872.6 Most-cited macroeconomists: 194044 875.1 Citation counts: 196697 2215.2 Central bank independence and economic performance 2606.1 The stylized facts of the busines
49、s cycle 3067.1 NAIRU estimates for the G7 countries and the euro area 4027.2 Evidence on reasons for price stickiness 42810.1 Politico-economic models of aggregate fluctuations 52610.2 Partisan influence on macroeconomic outcomes, USA, 19482001 53410.3 Rates of growth of GDP in real terms 54310.4 Alternative politico-economic models 54710.5 Selected indicators of governance: 20 sub-Saharan Africancountries 55911.1 Level and rate of growth of GDP per capita: world and majorregions, 01998 AD 58111.2 Three indicators of living standards:
