1、利率市场化与商业银行风险控制黄金老(SS= 100031)= 41:经济生活中市场成分的扩大使得利率市场化非常迫切,目前我国正按/五先五后0的模式分阶段实施b利率市场化给了商业银行资金定价自主权,也使一种主要的市场风险) ) 利率风险产生了b本文根据风险持续时间将利率市场化的风险分为阶段性风险和恒久性风险b阶段性风险是指在利率放开管制的初期,商业银行不能适应市场化利率环境所产生的金融风险,具有系统性和阶段性b恒久性风险即通常所指的利率风险,具有长期性和非系统性b利率风险的控制与管理既要求商业银行的组织建设(ALCO)a风险识别技术和表内结构调整以及表外保值安排,也需要金融监管部门的弹性调控a标
2、准化调整a透明性决策和市场激励政策的配合b1oM:利率市场化 商业银行 利率风险管理 q g 4S g1B, L F yb q g P 0.5%PbLanyiSaracoglu(1983)21?ZSE1971- 1980 MW L= # L=S = 399 q9 ?C, L= q 9 qS = 399 qWM1b W(1989) LanyiSaracoglu“ZE,|“SE v34,T?C L= qSEgr q(/1 q)1 L= qSE(1974- 1985 M, ( q- 10%)4bPolak(1989)YV40?ZSE L= q M9 qB9 M1“ 0.18- 0.27bGelb(
3、1989)9?C1965- 1985 MW34SE L= q69W M11“,M1“ 0.2- 0.6b X=B M (omitted variables) J,RoubiniSala-i- Martin(1992) M Z 9 19W1“,“?C 1192001 M1 C,v L q169 rb , q1 H 6n , aS= ,99r tn bA ? q1 Tb69Tb53SE, 70 M L= q- 5%SE69 q (1 L= qSE1.4%b9, , Ll , q gX w b8S,“96 H , q5 K, B M q, q1 b1949- 1978 M30 M ,2Z q 9Qb
4、1978 M, q5v , q -BM,M;7 O b q “:B h, g,69;= KWi , , b7C LT5 : q n, gr q; ?9 P e V ?l, HK bvQ LC q g,BCXP,1 /vQ05bVS= A, q g1 o:( 1)?Ki qK q,i q /K;( 2)sY?i q qS,i vS;( 3)? ( qWKv bC A ,S _V vS“ mb8 5i,5vl,5 =,5 jh g,5 gb“,v LC q gV,S q8“| dB qaK q1 q Qii, aQ qb2000 M6,S zM C13 M HWvQ LC q g,T 5,1921
5、 ,b 7; qb=a q g b q, q g q A 6,9 w q g1 “Bb5 q 6V yaV, Bt Yb L q g, l q SE u, 15C h,5C/; L= q 18SE,o w L= q/, 17SE u h( , 1996)b7 OBtSE,C s/ q0b q g=,V19761982 M, ( L= qr32%,+Y 1982 M41 L= qr69%bS1980M L= q5.1%,1981 M 631.2%br9 1980- 1982 MW L= q3M (930%b Y L ,S q gB ,y q“ 6 q PS 7 3 ( )0b L,/09 s,
6、lm s? T b f /, qi B ,7g5 BLb q 4, q “i q 4,5 qQ , q? 3 pb S, qB5 , M B| K1 qBbL H, h ( Z1“,Y N)b qBSi,7 OX/ C L b ,S q g , q PS =b1996 M51 ,S 7Q,B M i qV10.98%2.25%b q/ .d)8 # T?a1 p# v,t 1 Nb , 3 gS V ?$ HW j, S5 1S5,1 3 g?ZbN, d ln( 5 na4 - vn)a q (CX L q)aSO gav- V CDg# ,5B, gb i,zM C q g HWV H,
7、1 7,V B Ai, !b ID , 1998:5 S qB5 6,S gsb , 2000:5 1 c 6,S gba , 1999:5 o6, Zb. ! , 1993:5 6,S bW, 1989:51989 M W?Z6,S6b , 1996:5 q g q1“S=6,5S= 61 bu +, 1998:5 q1:id146,S6bAsliDemirg-Kunt and Enrica Detragiache, 1998, / Financial Liberalization and Financial Fragility0, BIS, 1997, Principles for the
8、Management of Interest Risk , Sep.Fry, M J. , 1980,/ Saving, Investment and Growth, and the Cost of FinancialRepression0, World Development, Aug.Gelb, Alan H. , 1989,/ FinancialPolicies, Growth, and Efficiency0, World Bank Research Working Papers No. 202, June.Lynchi, D. 1996, / Measuring FinancialS
9、ector Development: A Study of Selective Asia-PacificCountries0, Developing Economics,Vol. 34.Michael Carter, 1989,/ Financial Innovation and FinancialFragility0, Journal of Economic Issues, Vol. XXIII No. 3 Sep.Mckinnon, R. I. 1993, The Order of Economic Liberalization, John Hopkins University Press
10、.Lanyi and Saracoglu, 1983,/ Interest Rate Policies in Development0, IMF, Occasional Paper 22.Polak J. , 1989,Financial Policies and Development, OECD Development Center Studies.Roubini, N. , and Sala- I- Martin, X. 1992,/ Financial Repression and Economic Growth0, Journalof Development Economics, V
11、ol.39.Sprague, I. 1986, Bailout:AnInsider. s Account of Bank Failures and Rescues, New York, Basic Books.Stiglitz, J.and Weiss,A, 1981, / Credit Rationing in Market with Imperfect Information0, American Economic Review, June.(责任编辑:黎明)(校对:子璇)28 : q g B eMarke-t oriented Interest Rate and Risk Control
12、of Commercial BanksHuangJinlaoThe broadening of market share in economic operation forces the interest rate to be market-oriented.Now, China is putting in action the market-oriented interest rategradually by themodeof /Five first,Five second0. After interest-ratewas market-oriented, thecommercial ba
13、nk acquired theright of fund-pricing independently.But the market-oriented interest-ratebrings anew kind of market risk) interestrate risk to commercial bank, too. According to theduration, this paper classifies the risk of market-oriented interest-rate as two sorts, one is the transitional risk, an
14、other is the everlasting risk. Thetransitional risk means that, commercial bank can. t adapt to the background of the market-orientedinteres-t rate at the initial stage, because the process is transitional and systematic. The everlastingrisk, namely, interest-raterisk, is long and non-systematic.The
15、 control of risk, needs both organiza-tion building, technique of risk recognizability, adjustment of balance sheet structure, of-f balancehedge of commercial bank and elasticity control, norm-based adjustment, transparency in decision-making,market stimulus by the central bank.The Evolution of the
16、Formation ofRural Economic Organization and Its InnovationZhou Liqun & Cao LiqunAgricultural industrialization is a process of evolution and innovation of rural economic organization.This paper analyses the historical process based on the investigation of Laiyang County, ShandongProvince.At the earl
17、y stage of agricultural industrialization, rural economic organization mainly tooksthe form of cooperatives and the form of / leading firms+ farmers0. However,both of these forms havedefects.The cooperatives, being too small, possess too few assets for mortgage. The / leading firms+farmers0,on the o
18、ther hand,arenot effectively bound by their contracts, if any.So,intermediary orga-nizations are needed to remove these defects.New organizations,such as / firms+ cooperatives+ farms0or / firms+ big farmers+ small farmers0 are innovated as a result.This innovation improves the eff-iciency of rural economicorganization,but thenew forms,too,have their problems caused by theincom-plete contracts and inadequate assets of intermediary organizations. Tosolvetheseproblems,we need tohave a fresh look into the improvement and innovation of rural economic organization.94
