1、,Modern Think Tanks,2018/4/15,04 Modern Think Tanks,4.1 Think Tanks: an introduction4.2 Think Tanks: structure & functions4.3 Think tanks in modern China,4.1 Think tanks: An Introduction,1950年,就在美国发动朝鲜战争之前,兰德公司(The Rand Corporation)曾投入大量的人力物力对此进行精心研究,他们预测的最终结果:中国将出兵朝鲜,兰德公司准备以500万美元的价格将这一研究成果卖给美国国防部,
2、当时由于咨询机构在美国政府机构决策中的作用还没有被充分认识到,政府官员在做决定时还没有向民间智囊团进行咨询的习惯,兰德公司的预测结果被忽视了。另外,美国国防部坚信中国决不会为了朝鲜冒险跨过鸭绿江,将本来就赢弱的国家拖入战争的泥潭。同时国防部认为兰德公司的研究报告出价过高,遂拒绝了兰德公司的研究报告。,Think tanks in todays USA,There are today over 1,200 think tanks in the USA, with as many as 100 in Washington DC alone. Some are small and ephemeral
3、, others are solidly entrenched and very well-heeled - the Brookings Institution, for instance, established for 75 years, has an endowment of over $90 million.,4.1.1、What is a think tank?,美国韦氏大词典(Webster Dictionary, 1959)则将思想库界定为致力于跨学科研究(如同技术与社会问题)的学会、社团或群体,也被称为思想工厂 (Think tank: an institute, corpor
4、ation, or group organized for interdisciplinary research, as in technological and social problems, called also think factory)。,Paul Dickson 保罗迪克森,思想库是政府为解决各种问题所求助的对象,是利用现有知识以跨学科方法进行政策研究的持久性机构。 (Think tank: “Utilization of existing knowledge, an interdisciplinary approach, a permanent organization.”)
5、,He received a University Fellowship for reporters from the APSA to do his first book, Think Tanks (1971),Think tank: 頭脳集団,日本学者增田米二 ( )曾说,脑库(;頭脳集団)是以开发大型科学(如开发宇宙和海洋)和开发社会(如防治公害,城市建设)等更加综合性的技术和系统为对象的研究咨询机构,它强调设计未来,跨学科研究和系统分析方法。,情報社会研究所所長、工科大学名誉教授,五十嵐 雅郎( ),日本学者五十岚雅郎认为,所谓公共政策研究,就是“探讨和分析政府以及地方公共团体的施政方针
6、,从事有助于改善政策.现代意义上的智囊团,又称思想库或公共政策研究机构,作为权力和知识的桥梁。,Think Tank: Our Understanding,思想库是以政策研究为核心,以直接或间接服务于政府政策制定为目的、非赢利性的独立研究机构。 (Think tank is a non-profit, independent research organization that centered on policy study and aimed at serving for policymaking directly or indirectly),4.1.2、Formation and de
7、velopment of Think Tank,Think tanks: early developmentThink tanks: further development or formation Think tanks: prosperity Think tanks: maturity,1、 Think tanks: early development,1910年成立的卡内基国际和平基金会(The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)是美国最早成立的、颇有影响的基金会之一,也是美国著名的主流思想库。总部设在华盛顿。出版国际政治经济领域的权威
8、刊物外交政策(Foreign Policy),创办者:钢铁大王安德鲁卡内基(Andrew Carnegie),The Hoover Institution,胡佛战争、革命与和平研究所(The Hoover Institution on War, Revolution and Peace, Founded in 1919 )有共和党“影子政府”之称,素以研究共产主义和反苏反共著称,有“右翼思潮的思想库”的名声。该所是赫伯特胡佛为其母校斯坦福大学创建的。,创办者:美国第31任总统赫伯特胡佛(Herbert Hoover),全国经济研究局(NBER),1920年建立的全国经济研究局(National
9、 Bureau Of Economic Research, NBER)。全国经济研究局致力于向公共政策制定者、商界人士和学术界提供没有偏见的经济研究。该局是美国最权威的经济研究组织。31位诺贝尔经济学奖得主中的12位经济学家出自该局。研究局的经验研究工作集中于四种类型:发展新的统计测量法;评估经济行为的数量模型;评价公共政策对美国经济的影响;评估替代政策方案的影响力。,The Council on Foreign Relations,1921年建立的、号称“帝国智囊团”的对外关系委员会(The Council on Foreign Relations , CFR)是审议、酝酿和制定美国对外重大
10、战略决策的场所。 对外关系委员会创办的外交(Foreign Affairs)杂志是公认的美国和世界上最重要的国际政治类刊物,被誉为最能反映美国对外政策走向的非官方出版物。,The Brookings Institution,布鲁金斯学会的源头是罗伯特S布鲁金斯(Robert Somers Brookings, 1850-1932)于1916年创建的美国历史上第一个从事公共政策研究的私人组织“政府研究所”(The Brookings Institution traces its beginnings to 1916, when a group of leading reformers found
11、ed the Institute for Government Research (IGR), the first private organization devoted to analyzing public policy issues at the national level)。,2、Think tanks: further development or formation,第二次世界大战以后,国际国内形式更是日趋复杂化,迫切需要政府制定出高质量的公共政策,而这是依靠少数政治领导人及其助手难以实现的。于是,政界和财界的一些人便积极扶持建立政策研究组织。 (The aftermath o
12、f World War II saw a significant increase in the numbers of think tanks)。,经济发展委员会(CED)American Enterprise Institute (AEI) RAND Stanford Research Institute (SRI) 外交政策研究所:“冷战”思想库 (the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI),经济发展委员会(CED),1942年成立的经济发展委员会(The US Committee for Economic Development, CED),
13、是美国大企业创建的重要经济政策研究和决策机构,是美国执政当局制定经济战略的总参谋部。它与对外关系委员会分别是执政当局制定政策的左右手。如同对外关系委员会在美国军事、外交政策方面所起的作用一样,经济发展委员会(CED)对美国国内外经济政策的制定起着举足轻重的影响。,American Enterprise Institute (AEI),American Enterprise Institute (AEI) is a tax-exempt organization founded in 1943 by Lewis H. Brown, then chairman of the board of Jo
14、hns-Manville Corp. 最初的目的是“为政策制定者、企业家、学者、新闻界和公众提供对国内、国际问题的客观分析”,主要从事经济问题的研究,向国会兜售维护企业界利益的言论,宣扬自由市场思想( Its original purpose was to be a spokesperson for big business and to promote through publications and seminars the ideas and theories of free enterprise, including maintenance of a free economic ord
15、er, resolute national defense, and tradition-proven cultural & political values )。,RAND,1948年建立的、号称“世界思想库的开创者”的兰德公司(The RAND Corporation),是美国最重要的以军事为主的综合性战略研究机构,被誉为世界思想库、智囊团的开创者。 RAND (a contraction of the term research and development) is the first organization to be called a think tank.,“世界思想库的开创者
16、”,Stanford Research Institute International (SRI),SRI International, a nonprofit research institute, is a pioneer in the creation and application of innovative solutions for governments, businesses, foundations, and other organizations. It is one of the worlds largest contract research firms. Founde
17、d in 1946 in conjunction with Stanford University as the Stanford Research Institute, they later became fully independent and were incorporated as a non-profit organization under U.S. and California laws. Since founding in 1946 as the Stanford Research Institute its name until 1977 it has been commi
18、tted to discovery and to the application of science and technology for knowledge, commerce, prosperity, and peace.,SRI and Its Policy Division,SRI provides valuable solutions to a wide range of clients in information, communications, and engineering technologies; pharmaceuticals and biotechnology; c
19、hemistry and physics; and the public policy areas of education, health, and economic development. The mission of SRIs Policy Division is to help government agencies, nonprofit organizations, and commercial clients solve problems and capitalize on opportunities posed by complex issues in education, t
20、raining, health, economic development, and human services.,外交政策研究所:“冷战”思想库,Founded in 1955, the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) is an independent, nonprofit organization devoted to advanced research and public education on international affairs. FPRI publications include Orbis, a quarterly
21、journal of world affairs edited by David Eisenhower.,http:/www.fpri.org/,金德芳(June Teufel Dreyer),June Teufel Dreyer is Professor and Chair of the Department of Political Science at the University of Miami, Coral Gables, Florida. 美国国会美中委员会委员、美中经济和安全审查委员会委员、迈阿密大学教授。,知名的持反华态度的“蓝队”成员,3、Think tanks: pros
22、perity,赫德森研究所(Hudson Institute)战略暨国际问题研究中心(CSIS) Pacific Forum CSISThe Okazaki Intstitue岡崎研究所传统基金会(The Heritage Foundation) 凯托研究所 (The Cato Institute ) The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS)The Institute for Policy Sciences (IPS),赫德森研究所(Hudson Institute),赫德森研究所座落在纽约州的赫德森河畔,是美国类似兰德公
23、司的重要思想库。研究所于1961年建立,由赫尔曼卡恩等创建。早先以研究核战争著称,现则以探讨未来见长。 研究所把“设想难以置信的事”(Think the unthinkable)作为座右铭,以富有想象力、大胆直言和高效率而著称于世。Based in Indianapolis, Hudson also maintains a major office in Washington, D.C., and satellite offices across the U.S. http:/www.hudson.org,战略暨国际问题研究中心(CSIS),The Center for Strategic a
24、nd International Studies (CSIS) is a right-wing, neoconservative think tank which was founded in 1962. Until 1986, CSIS was affiliated with Georgetown University.CSIS describes itself as an independent institution for public policy research in the field of foreign and national security affairs. It f
25、ocuses on the issues and challenges that confront the United States in advancing its global interests and discharging its global responsibilities. ,Pacific Forum CSIS,The gateway to Asia is Pacific Forum CSIS, founded in 1975. Based in Honolulu, Pacific Forum CSIS collaborates with a network of more
26、 than 30 research institutes around the Pacific Rim. Forum programs encompass current and emerging political, security, economic, and business issues. Brent Scowcroft chairs the board of governors of Pacific Forum CSIS, and Ralph Cossa serves as its president.,The Okazaki Intstitue岡崎研究所,The Okazaki
27、Intstitue is Japans premier independent think tank. Though small, it is extremely prolific and influential for its size. Recognized not only in Tokyo, but also in political and security circles in Washington, DC and Seoul as making a unique and important contribution to policy formulation, the Okaza
28、ki Institute is led by one of Japans leading strategists, Ambassador Okazaki. Hisahiko Okazaki (岡崎 久彦,元駐大使)is Japans Henry Kissinger.,传统基金会(The Heritage Foundation),Founded in 1973, The Heritage Foundation is a research and educational institute - a think tank - whose mission is to formulate and pro
29、mote conservative public policies based on the principles of free enterprise, limited government, individual freedom, traditional American values, and a strong national defense.,The Heritage Foundation is a unique institutiona public policy research organization, or “think tank.” It draws solutions
30、to contemporary problems from the ideas, principles and traditions that make America great.http:/www.heritage.org/,赵小兰(Elaine Chao),祖籍上海嘉定,1953年生于台北,8岁时随父母移居美国。1979年获哈佛大学硕士学位,1984年至1986年担任旧金山美国商业银行国际金融副总裁。后担任美国交通部航运署副署长、联邦海事委员会主席、美国交通部副部长。1991年,成为美国最大的慈善机构之一海外和平工作团主席和美国联合基金会总裁。2001年出任联邦政府劳工部长,成为美国历史
31、上首位华裔内阁成员。,“全美六大杰出妇女”之一;传统基金会成员,朱棣文(Steven Chu),朱棣文(Steven Chu,1948年2月28日),美國物理學家,生於美國聖路易斯;華人血統,因為發展了用雷射冷卻和捕獲原子的方法而獲得諾貝爾物理學獎(1997年)。現任美國能源部部長。朱棣文於1976年取得美國加州大學柏克萊分校物理學博士學位,1993年獲選為美國國家科學院院士,1997年以關於原子和粒子的雷射冷卻的研究,獲得當年的諾貝爾物理學獎,成為繼楊振寧、李政道與丁肇中後,第四位榮獲諾貝爾物理學獎的華裔,時年四十九歲。,凯托研究所 (The Cato Institute ),The Cat
32、o Institute was founded in 1977 by Edward H. Crane. It is a non-profit public policy research foundation headquartered in Washington, D.C. The Institute is named for Catos Letters, a series of libertarian pamphlets that helped lay the philosophical foundation for the American Revolution. The Cato In
33、stitute seeks to broaden the parameters of public policy debate to allow consideration of the traditional American principles of limited government, individual liberty, free markets and peace.,野村総合研究所(NRI),Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. (NRI) , established in April 1965, was Japans first private th
34、ink tank. Whether by advising policy proposals and corporate strategies or promoting new system development and management, NRI have always strived to push the boundaries and explore new horizons. Todays NRI was created for the advent of the advanced information society, and their services are ideal
35、ly integrated to meet the requirements of a rapidly changing society.,The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS),The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), founded in 1958 and based in London, is the worlds most prestigious private not-for-profit membership organization
36、for the study of political risk, international relations, military strategy, arms control, regional security and conflict resolution.,IISS is the worlds leading authority on political-military conflict.,The Institute for Policy Sciences (IPS),The Institute for Policy Sciences, Japan (IPS) is a think
37、tank. IPS was established on 1 October 1971. IPS is a non-profit organization (incorporated foundation), and is authorized by the Minister of Finance and the Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry. IPS is funded by the Japanese leading companies, from whose representatives the Board of Councilors a
38、re comprised.,future-oriented and constructive attitude,4、Think tank: recent development,政治家后援型思想库是美国新一代公共政策研究机构,大都成立于8090年代,一般由具有政治雄心的人物或其支持者、离任后试图进一步推进其政治和意识形态主张的前总统等创办。这类思想库中较有代表性的有卡特中心(The Carter Center,亚特兰大,1982年)、尼克松和平与自由中心(The Nixon Center,华盛顿,1994年)、新美国世纪计划(The New American Century, 1997)这些思
39、想库更关注的是推展其政治主张,尤其感兴趣的是推出或至少是重新包装能给政治家的政纲带来具有可信度的思想。,Think tanks: maturity,卡特中心(The Carter Center ) 尼克松和平与自由中心 (The Nixon Center ) 新美国世纪计划(The New American Century ),卡特中心(The Carter Center ),The Carter Center, in partnership with Emory University, is committed to advancing human rights and alleviatin
40、g unnecessary human suffering. Founded in 1982 by former U.S. President Jimmy Carter and his wife, Rosalynn, the Atlanta-based Center has helped to improve the quality of life for people in more than 65 countries. http:/www.cartercenter.org,尼克松和平与自由中心 (The Nixon Center ),President Richard Nixon anno
41、unced the creation of The Nixon Center on January 20, 1994, the 25th anniversary of his first inauguration and just three months before his death in April of that year. While genuinely non-partisan, as reflected in the composition of its Board of Directors and Advisory Council, the Center has a phil
42、osophy of an enlightened pursuit of national interest. http:/www.nixoncenter.org/,新美国世纪计划(The New American Century ),新美国世纪计划成立于1997年,具有鲜明的新保守主义与冷战思维色彩,政策立场上一贯反华和支持台独,主张以台制中。The Project for the New American Century is a non-profit educational organization dedicated to a few fundamental propositions:
43、that American leadership is good both for America and for the world; that such leadership requires military strength, diplomatic energy and commitment to moral principle; and that too few political leaders today are making the case for global leadership.http:/www.newamericancentury.org/,4.1.3、公共政策研究
44、组织的特征,政策研究(policy reasearch)和(policy analysis)的针对性研究人员构成的多学科性研究活动的相对独立性研究方法和研究技术的先进性,Think tanks: features,_ private, non-profit, policy-oriented think-tank_ neutral and independent studies_ self-management by permanent research staffs_ open research system_ creation of domestic and international in
45、tellectual network_ provision of information for the society and the services for the supporting members,1. To influence policy making,Think tanks belong to the non-profit sector, yet influencing public policy decisions seems to be one of their main objectives and abilities.Politically, think tanks
46、are aggressive institutions that actively seek to maximize public credibility and political access to make their expertise and ideas influential in policy making.,2. Interdisciplinary policy scholars,Policy scholars and analysts in think tanks are with interdisciplinary or multi-disciplinary backgro
47、und. Think tank is an institute, corporation, or group organized for interdisciplinary research.,3. To offer independent and objective advice,The earliest think tanks were staffed almost exclusively by academics who felt that social science was the key to better government.They presumed to offer ind
48、ependent and objective advice to the general public and were, compared with their present-day counterparts, politically innocent. Franklin Roosevelts brain trust paved the way for the modern think tank by institutionalizing the role of outside advisers in the policymaking process.,4. Scientific theo
49、ry and advanced technique,那格尔认为,思想库的重要作用就是“发展了政策研究的方法论,特别是论证性方法,如系统分析和其它政策分析法”,包括决策理论、可行性研究、预测技术、调查研究、PPBS、成本效用分析等方法。这些方法与技术为思想库形成自己特色奠定了基础,促进政策科学的发展。,Official or Governmental Think Tanks,Established in 1984, the Institute of Peace meets its congressional mandate through an array of programs, including research grants, fellowships, professional training, education programs from high school through graduate school, conferences and workshops, library services, and publications. The Institutes Board of Directors is appointed by the President of the United States and confirmed by the Senate,