1、2018/4/15,1,竞争分析,第三讲：外部竞争分析工具,2018/4/15,2,Question 1: What Impact Will the Drivers of Change Have on Industry Conditions?问题1：变革会对行业环境产生何种影响？,Industries change because forces are driving industry participants to alter their actions 行业发生变化是由于各方力量驱使行业参与者改变他们的行为Driving forces are the major underlying ca
2、uses of changing industry and competitive conditions 驱动力是行业和竞争环境 变化的根本原因,2018/4/15,3,Analyzing Driving Forces驱动力分析,1. Identify those forces likely to exert greatest influence over next 1 - 3 years 确定那些在将来1-3年内可能施加最大影响的力量Usually no more than 3 - 4 factorsqualify as real drivers of change 通常具备真正的变革驱动力
3、的条件 的不超过3-4个,2018/4/15,4,Analyzing Driving Forces驱动力分析,2. Assess impact 评估影响Are forces causing demand for product to increase or decrease? 这些力量正使产品需求增加或减少吗？Are forces acting to make competition more or less intense? 这些力量正使竞争恶化或削弱吗？Will forces lead to higher or lower industry profitability? 这些力量会导致更高
4、或更低的行业收益率吗？,2018/4/15,5,Common Types of Driving Forces驱动力的常见类型,Internet and e-commerce opportunities 因特网和电子商务机会Increasing globalization of industry 行业在全球化范围内增强Changes in long-term industry growth rate 在长期内行业增长率变化Changes in who buys the product and how they use it 购买产品的人和他们使用产品方式的变化Product innovation
5、 产品革新,2018/4/15,6,Common Types of Driving Forces驱动力的常见类型,Technological change/process innovation 技术变革/流程革新Marketing innovation 营销革新Entry or exit of major firms 主要公司进入或撤出Diffusion of technical knowledge 技术知识的传播Changes in cost and efficiency 成本和效率变化,2018/4/15,7,Market shift from standardized to differ
6、entiated products (or vice versa) 市场从标准产品转变为差别化产品（或相反）Changes in degree of uncertainty and risk 不确定性和风险程度变化Regulatory policies / government legislation 规章政策/政府立法Changing societal concerns, attitudes, and lifestyles 社会关系、态度和生活方式的变化,Common Types of Driving Forces驱动力的常见类型,2018/4/15,8,Question 2: What A
7、re the Market Positions of Industry Rivals?问题2：同行对手处于何种市场地位？,One technique for revealing the different competitive positions of industry rivals is strategic group mapping 一种揭示同行对手不同竞争地位的技术是战略分组图,2018/4/15,9,Question 2: What Are the Market Positions of Industry Rivals?问题2：同行对手处于何种市场地位？,A strategic gr
8、oup consists of those rivals with similar competitive approachesin an industry 一个战略组包含那些在一个行业中竞争方法类似的对手,2018/4/15,10,Strategic Group Mapping战略分组图,Firms in same strategic group have two or more competitive characteristics in common 在同一战略组的公司有两个或更多共同的竞争特征Have comparable product line breadth 拥有相当的产品线宽度
9、Sell in same price/quality range 在相同的价格/质量范围内销售Emphasize same distribution channels 关注相同的分销渠道,2018/4/15,11,Strategic Group Mapping战略分组图,Use same product attributes to appeal to similar types of buyers 用相同的产品特性吸引相似类型的购买者Use identical technological approaches 采用相同的技术途径Offer buyers similar services 提供购
10、买者相似的服务Cover same geographic areas 覆盖相同的地理区域,2018/4/15,12,Procedure for Constructing a Strategic Group Map绘制战略分组图的步骤,STEP 1: Identify competitive characteristics that differentiate firms in an industry from one another第一步：确定行业内不同公司的竞争特征，这些特征使这家公司区别于另一家公司STEP 2: Plot firms on a two-variable map using
11、 pairs of these differentiating characteristics第二步：在两个变量的图上划分这些公司,2018/4/15,13,Procedure for Constructing a Strategic Group Map绘制战略分组图的步骤,STEP 3: Assign firms that fall in about the same strategy space to same strategic group第三步： 把落在同一战略空间的公司划分到同一战略组STEP 4: Draw circles around each group, making cir
12、cles proportional to size of groups respective share of total industry sales第四步： 在同一组周围画圆圈，使圆圈跟小组在行业总销售中的相应份额成比例。,2018/4/15,14,Example: Strategic Group Mapof Selected Retail Chains例子：所选零售连锁公司的战略分组图,价格/质量,高,低,地理覆盖,少数地点,很多地点,2018/4/15,15,Guidelines: Strategic Group Maps指导方针：战略分组图,Variables selected as
13、 axes should not be highly correlated 所选坐标轴的变量不应是高度关联的Variables chosen as axes should expose big differences in how rivals compete 所选坐标轴的变量应揭示对手竞争上的重大差异Variables do not have to be either quantitative or continuous 变量不一定是定量的或连续的,2018/4/15,16,Guidelines: Strategic Group Maps指导方针：战略分组图,Drawing sizes of
14、 circles proportional to combined sales of firms in each strategic group allows map to reflect relative sizes of each strategic group 圆的面积与每一战略组所有公司的总销售成比例反映了每组的相对大小If more than two good competitive variables can be used, several maps can be drawn 如果能有多于两个的好的竞争变量，就能画好几个图。,2018/4/15,17,Interpreting S
15、trategic Group Maps诠释战略分组图,Driving forces and competitive pressures often favor some strategic groups and hurt others 驱动力和竞争压力常常帮助一些战略组而伤害另一些组Profit potential of different strategic groups varies due to strengths and weaknesses in each groups market position 由于每一组市场地位的优势和弱势不同，他们的赢利潜力也不同The closer st
16、rategic groups are on map, the stronger the competitive rivalry among member firms tends to be 战略组在图上越近，其所属公司之间的竞争对立越强烈,2018/4/15,18,Question 3: What Strategic Moves Are Rivals Likely to Make?问题3：竞争对手可能采取何种战略行动？,A firms best strategic moves are affected by 公司的最佳战略行动受以下因素影响：Current strategies of comp
17、etitors 竞争者当前的战略Future actions of competitors 竞争者将来的行动,2018/4/15,19,Question 3: What Strategic Moves Are Rivals Likely to Make?问题3：竞争对手可能采取何种战略行动？,Profiling key rivals involves gathering competitive intelligence about 分析关键对手需要收集以下竞争情报Current strategies 当前战略Most recent actions and public announcement
18、s 最近行动和公开言论,2018/4/15,20,Question 3: What Strategic Moves Are Rivals Likely to Make?问题3：竞争对手可能采取何种战略行动？,Resource strengths and weaknesses 资源优势与劣势Efforts being made to improve their situation 为改善他们的情形所做的工作Thinking and leadership styles of top executives 高层经理的思想和领导类型,2018/4/15,21,Competitor Analysis竞争
19、者分析,Sizing up strategies and competitive strengths and weaknesses of rivals involves assessing 估计对手的战略和竞争优弱势包含评估Which rival has the best strategy? Which rivals appear to have weak strategies? 哪个对手的战略最好？哪些对手的 战略不好？,2018/4/15,22,Competitor Analysis竞争者分析,Which firms are poised to gain market share, and
20、 which ones seen destined to lose ground? 哪些公司可能赢得市场份额？哪些注定要失利？Which rivals are likely to rank among the industry leaders five years from now? Do any rivals have strategies and the resources to overtake the current industry leader? 哪些公司能在5年后跻身行业领导者之列？有对手具备好的战略和足够的资源超过当前的行业领导者吗？,2018/4/15,23,Consider
21、ations Involved inPredicting Moves of Rivals预测对手行动需考虑的事项,Which rivals need to increase their unit sales and market share? What strategies are rivals most likely to pursue? 哪些对手需要提升他们的单位销量和市场份额？对手最可能采取什么战略？Which rivals have a strong incentive, along with resources, to make major strategic changes? 哪些
22、对手有强烈的动机与资源而采取重大的战略变革？,2018/4/15,24,Considerations Involved inPredicting Moves of Rivals预测对手行动需考虑的事项,Which rivals are good candidates to be acquired? Which rivals have the resources to acquire others? 哪些对手是好的收购候选者？哪些对手有资源去收购别的对手？Which rivals are likely to enter new geographic markets? 哪些对手可能进入新的市场？W
23、hich rivals are likely to expand their product offerings and enter new product segments? 哪些对手可能扩大他们的产品供应和进入新的产品分支,2018/4/15,25,Question 4: What Are the Key Factors for Competitive Success?问题4：竞争成功的关键因素,Competitive factors most affecting every industry members ability to prosper 对同行对手竞争力影响最大的因素Specif
24、ic strategy elements 特定的战略要素Product attributes 产品特性Resources 资源Competencies 能力Competitive capabilities 竞争能力,2018/4/15,26,Question 4: What Are the Key Factors for Competitive Success?问题4：竞争成功的关键因素,KSFs spell the difference between 这些关键成功因素（KSF）导致了以下不同结果Profit and loss 盈利或损失Competitive success or fail
25、ure 竞争成功或失败,2018/4/15,27,Identifying Industry Key Success Factors确定行业关键成功因素,Pinpointing KSFs involves determining 确定KSF包含决定On what basis do customers choose between competing brands of sellers? 消费者选择不同销售商的竞争品牌的依据是什么？What resources and competitive capabilities does a seller need to have to be competi
26、tively successful? 销售商成功竞争需要具备那些资源和竞争能力？,2018/4/15,28,Identifying Industry Key Success Factors确定行业关键成功因素,What does it take for sellers to achieve a sustainable competitive advantage? 销售商要获得持续竞争优势需要付出什么代价？KSFs consist of the 3 - 5 major determinants of financial and competitive success KSF包含3-5个财务和竞争
27、成功的决定因素,2018/4/15,29,Example: KSFs for Beer Industry例子：啤酒行业的KSF,Full utilization of brewing capacity - to keep manufacturing costs low 充分利用酿造能力- 保持低制造成本Strong network of wholesale distributors - to gain access to retail outlets 强大的批发分销商 得到进入零售点的通路Clever advertising - to induce beer drinkers to buy a
28、 particular brand 聪明的广告 劝诱啤酒饮用者购买特定品牌,2018/4/15,30,Example: KSFs for Apparel Manufacturing Industry例子：服装制造业的KSF,Appealing designs and color combinations - to create buyer appeal 吸引人的设计和颜色搭配 创造对购买者的吸引力Low-cost manufacturing efficiency - to keep selling prices competitive 低成本制造效率 而保持售价有竞争力,2018/4/15,3
29、1,Example: KSFs for Tin andAluminum Can Industry例子：锡和铝罐行业的KSF,Locating plants close to end-use customers - to keep costs of shipping empty cans low 工厂选址在最终消费者附近 保持运送空罐的低成本Ability to market plant output within economical shipping distances 在经济运送距离内营销工厂的产出能力,2018/4/15,32,Question 5: Does the IndustryP
30、resent an Attractive Opportunity?问题5：行业有诱人的机会吗？,Develop conclusions about whether theindustry and competitive environment is attractive or unattractive for earning good profits作出行业和竞争环境对赢取好的利润有无吸引力的结论,Objective目标,2018/4/15,33,Question 5: Does the IndustryPresent an Attractive Opportunity?问题5：行业有诱人的机
31、会吗？,Principle原理,A firm uniquely well-suited in an otherwise unattractive industry can, under certain circumstances, still earn unusually good profits 其它情况下没有吸引力的行业中，一个以独特的方式适应的公司在特定的情形下仍能挣得丰厚的利润,2018/4/15,34,Factors to Consider inAssessing Industry Attractiveness评估行业吸引力需考虑的因素,Industrys market size a
32、nd growth potential 行业市场容量和增长潜力Whether competitive forces are conducive to rising/falling industry profitability 竞争力量是否导致行业利润率上升/下降Whether industry profitability will be favorably or unfavorably impacted by driving forces 驱动力是否有利于或不利于行业利润率Degree of risk and uncertainty in industrys future 行业前景的风险和不确
33、定程度,2018/4/15,35,Factors to Consider inAssessing Industry Attractiveness评估行业吸引力需考虑的因素,Severity of problems facing industry 行业面临问题的严重性Firms competitive position in industry vis-vis rivals 公司在行业中与竞争对手相比所处的竞争地位Firms potential to capitalize on vulnerabilities of weaker rivals 公司利用弱势对手弱点的潜力Whether firm h
34、as sufficient resources to defend against unattractive industry factors 公司是否有足够的资源防卫不利的行业因素,2018/4/15,36,三大商业生态系统的相对健康状况,2018/4/15,37,三大商业生态系统的相对健康状况,2018/4/15,38,个人电脑行业的钱去了哪里？,2018/4/15,39,美国汽车工业利润池,2018/4/15,40,SOURCES OF EXTERNAL INFORMATION,Unpublished sources 非公开出版的信息来源Published sources of stra
35、tegic information 公开出版的策略信息来源Internet （因特网）,2018/4/15,41,FORECASTING TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES,Quantitative forecasting techniques定量方法:Econometric models 计量经济学模型Regression回归分析Trend extrapolation趋势外推法Qualitative forecasting approaches定性方法:Sales force estimates销售人员估计Juries of executive opinion管理人员评价Surveys
36、 or market research预测调查或市场研究Scenario forecasts总体概要预测Delphi forecasts德尔菲预测法Brainstorming头脑风暴法,2018/4/15,42,Hong Kong (FIGURE 3-5),2018/4/15,43,INDUSTRY ANALYSIS: THE EXTERNAL FACTOR EVALUATION (EFE) MATRIX,Five steps:1、list key external factors as identified in the external-audit process. 列出外部分析过程中确定
37、的关键外部因素2、Assign to each factor a weight that ranges from 0.0(not important) to 1.0(very important). 给每个因素设定权数，数值从0.0（不重要）到1.0（非常重要）。3、Assign a 1-to-4 rating to each key external factor to indicate how effectively the firms current strategies respond to the factor,where 4the response is superior,3=th
38、e response is above average,and 2=the response is average,and 1=the response is poor.按照企业现行战略各关键因素的有效反应程度为各关键因素进行评分，分值范围为14分，“4”代表反应很好，“3”代表反应超过平均水平，“2”代表反应为平均水平，而“1”则代表反应差。,2018/4/15,44,INDUSTRY ANALYSIS: THE EXTERNAL FACTOR EVALUATION (EFE) MATRIX,4、Multiply each factors weight by its rating to de
39、termine a weighted score.用每个因素的权数乘以它的评分，得到各因素的加权分数。5、Sum the weighted scores for each variable to determine the total weighted score for the organization.将所有因素的加权分数相加，得到企业的总加权分数。,2018/4/15,45,INDUSTRY ANALYSIS: THE EXTERNAL FACTOR EVALUATION (EFE) MATRIX,An Example External Factor Evaluation Matrix
40、For UST,Inc.KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS WEIGHT RATING WEIGHTED SCOREOpportunities 1.Global markets are practically untapped 0 .15 1 0.15 by smokeless tobacco market2.Increased demand caused by public 0.05 3 0.15 banning of smoking3.Astronomical internet advertising growth 0.05 1 0.054.Pinkerton is leader i
41、n discount tobacco market 0 .15 4 0.605.More social pressure to quit smoking. thus leading users to switch to alternatives 0 .10 3 0.30Threats1.legislation against the tobacco industry 0.10 2 0.202.production limits on tobacco increases competition for production 0.05 3 0.15 3.smokeless tobacco mark
42、et is concentrated in southeast region of United states 0.05 2 0.104.Bad media exposure from the FDA 0.10 2 0.205.Clinton Administration 0.20 1 0.20TOTAL 1.00 2.10,2018/4/15,46,UST公司的外部因素评价矩阵实例,2018/4/15,47,续上,说明：EFE总加权分数最高为4.0，最低为1.0，平均为2.5。若为4.0，则反映企业对现有机会与威胁做出了最优秀的反映，若为1.0，则说明公司战略不能利用外部机会或回避外部威胁。
43、,2018/4/15,48,THE COMPETITIVE PROEILE PROFILE MATRIX (CPM),EFEthey do not include specific or factual data and even may focus on internal issues.CPM中的关键成功因素更加宽泛，不包括具体的或实际的数据，它们甚至可能集中于内部事项。The critical success factors in a CPM also are not grouped into opportunities and threats as they are in an EFE.
44、 CPM中的关键成功因素不像EFE中的那样被分为机会与威胁两大类。In a CPM the ratings and total weighted scores for rival firms can be compared to the sample firm. this comparative analysis provides important internal strategic information. 在CPM中，竞争对手的评分和总加权分数可以与本公司的评分结果相比较，这一比较分析可提供重要的内部战略信息。,2018/4/15,49,THE COMPETITIVE PROEILE
45、PROFILE MATRIX (CPM),A COMPETITIVE PROFILE MATRIX AVON LOREAL PROCTERthis is too few in actuality.,2018/4/15,50,竞争态势矩阵,2018/4/15,51,CONCLUSION,Increasing turbulence in markets and industries and the world means the external audit has become an explicit and vital part of the strategic-management process. 全球市场和产业的波动 日益明显，这使得外部 分析已经成为战略管理 过程中的重要组成 部分。,
