1、上海理工大学本科生毕业设计（论文）本 科 毕 业 论 文国际热钱流入对我国房地产市场影响分析国际热钱流入对我国房地产市场影响分析2全日制本科生毕业设计（论文）承诺书本人郑重承诺：所呈交的毕业设计（论文） 国际热钱流入对我国房地产市场影响分析是在导师的指导下，严格按照学校和学院的有关规定由本人独立完成。文中所引用的观点和参考资料均已标注并加以注释。论文研究过程中不存在抄袭他人研究成果和伪造相关数据等行为。如若出现任何侵犯他人知识产权等问题，本人愿意承担相关法律责任。承诺人（签名）：日 期：上海理工大学本科生毕业设计（论文）国际热钱流入对我国房地产市场影响分析摘要中国改革开放 30 多年来，始终以
2、经济建设为中心，在经济上取得了长足的进步，在 2001 年进入 WTO 后，更是以开放的姿态面向全世界。近些年来，我国房地产市场相当活跃，国际热钱在其中推波助澜的作用相当明显。在全球经济一体化的大趋势下，相当一部分包括国际热钱的国际资本流动加速，基于人民币升值的预期与房地产产业的高利润，大量的资金流入中国的这一支柱产业中，势必对我国房地产市场产生更加重大而深远的影响。要分析国际热钱对我国房地产市场的影响，首先就要对国际热钱有一个清晰的认识。我将对国际热钱做出深入的剖析，包括它的种类、特征、数量及流动特点的简析，另外还有热钱的成因、流动路径以及各方面影响等，并以迪拜危机作为国际案例让平时不易察觉
3、的国际热钱浮出水面。通过对国外案例的分析，可以更加容易的摸清它对我过房地产市场影响的整个脉络，起到启示的作用。紧接着通过大量查阅相关文献资料、网络数据库等可能渠道，结合生活经验，在全面总结前人研究成果的基础上，具体考察不同途径流入的国际热钱对我国房地产市场的影响，理顺不同途径流入的热钱对我国房地产市场的作用机制（单项或双向作用） ，确定可能显著影响房地产市场的热钱流入渠道，并结合文献等分析其他渠道对房地产市场的可能影响，进一步确定不同渠道流入的热钱的作用范围。然后就是针对已有研究中的问题，探讨编制科学合理的，适合于计量分析的热钱界定指标，并尝试分析出主要的热钱流入渠道，以便分门别类的进行具体的
4、计量分析，这是本研究的最大的创新点与难点所在。随后，进入到统计模型的构建与检验过程，也是本文的主体部分，通过运用相关数据，对不同途径的国际热钱流入与我国房地产市场进行实证研究，应用 VAR 模型对各个变量的相互作用机制与影响效力进行分析。就是加强外汇管理，加强宏观调控力度，以及对市场中热钱的监管。最后就是结合以上研究得出的结论来展望下一段时间国际热钱对房地产市场的影响，如果出现新的情况就需要新的应对方案。关键词：国际热钱 房地产 VAR 模型 格兰杰因果检验 实证计量分析法国际热钱流入对我国房地产市场影响分析4上海理工大学本科生毕业设计（论文）International hot money i
5、nflows to China Real Estate Market AnalysisAbstractChinas reform and opening up 30 years, always taking economic construction as the center has made considerable economic progress, in 2001 into the WTO, a more open stance is for the world. In recent years, Chinas real estate market is very active, i
6、nternational hot money in which the role in fueling the quite obvious. Economic integration in the global trend, a considerable portion of international hot money, including acceleration of international capital flows, based on the expected appreciation of real estate industry with high profits, lar
7、ge capital inflows into Chinas pillar industries, is bound to our room real estate market have a more significant and far-reaching impact. To analyze the international hot money on the real estate markets, we must first have a clear international understanding of hot money. I will make in-depth anal
8、ysis of international hot money, including its types, characteristics, quantity and flow characteristics of the Analysis, in addition to the causes of hot money, flow path and the impact of various aspects, and the crisis in Dubai as an international case for peace difficult to detect international
9、hot money surfaced. Through the analysis of foreign case, you can more easily get to know it I had the whole context of the real estate market, played the role of revelation. Followed by a large number of access to relevant documents, and other possible channels of the network database, combined wit
10、h life experience, in a comprehensive summary based on the results of previous studies, the specific effects of different channels of international hot money into Chinas real estate market on the impact of different ways to rationalize inflow of hot money on the mechanism of action of the real estat
11、e market (single or double acting), to identify possible significant impact on the real estate market channels for hot money inflows, and the literatures of other channels such as the possible impact on the real estate market, and further to determine the different channels into the the scope of the
12、 role of hot money. Then there is the study for the problems of the preparation of scientific and reasonable, suitable for quantitative analysis of the hot money definition of indicators, and try to analyze the main channel for hot money inflows in order to carry out specific measures disaggregated
13、analysis, which is the largest of this study The innovation and the difficulty lies. Subsequently, statistical models into the construction and inspection process, but also the body of this article, through the use of relevant data on the different channels of international hot money inflows and the
14、 empirical study of the real estate market, the application of each 国际热钱流入对我国房地产市场影响分析6variable VAR model of the interaction mechanism Analysis of effectiveness. Is to strengthen foreign exchange management, strengthen macro-control efforts, and the regulation of hot money on the market. Finally is
15、the combination of the above study concluded that to look forward to the next period of time international hot money on the real estate markets, if new circumstances require new responses to the program. Keywords: VAR model of international hot money Granger causality test of real estate empirical m
16、easurement Analysis 上海理工大学本科生毕业设计（论文）目录摘要Abstract第 1 章 绪论 .31.1研究的背景与意义31.2研究方法31.3研究内容31.4文献综述3第 2 章 国际热钱现状分析 .3国际热钱流入对我国房地产市场影响分析82.1国际热钱的综述32.1.1国际热钱简析32.1.2国际热钱的特征32.1.3国际热钱的规模上海理工大学本科生毕业设计（论文）计算简析32.1.4国际热钱流入的原因32.2国际热钱的流动方式及影响32.2.1国际热钱流国际热钱流入对我国房地产市场影响分析10入的渠道32.2.2国际热钱流入的市场分布32.2.3国际热钱流入的影响32.3国际案例分
