1、1,CMA学习系统 第一部分：财务规划、绩效和控制 CMA Learning System Part 1: Financial Planning, Performance and Control,主讲：张宇 CMA,2,第一章：计划、预算和预测 Section A: Planning, Budgeting and Forecasting,3,第一节：预算概念 Topic 1: Budgeting Concepts,4,基础：术语、预算周期以及预算的理由 Fundamentals: Terminology, Budget Cycle, and Reasons for Budgeting,预算 经
2、营计划，控制工具，资源与承诺，一段时间内的目标，定量 预算编制制定预算的步骤，目标传达（沟通工具） 预算控制没有控制，预算只是预测，系统的预算审批流程，协调相关方努力，分析差异，提供反馈，现实的，激励作用 Budget operation plan, control tool, resources and commitment, goals over a period, quantitative Budgeting steps preparing a budget, communication Budgetary control without control, budget is just
3、forecast; systematic budget approval process, coordinating effects of all parties, analyzing variances, providing feedback, realistic, motivational,5,模拟报表预算财务报表，以历史信息为基础，假设某些事件已经发生而做出调整，资源的配置 模拟对内/外部使用者的不同定义 Pro forma statements budgeted financial statement, based on historical documents, adjusted f
4、or event “as if” occurred, allocation of resource pro forma definition for internal/external users,基础：术语、预算周期以及预算的理由 Fundamentals: Terminology, Budget Cycle, and Reasons for Budgeting,6,采取措施 Take action,反馈与修订预算 Feedback and revise plan,编制预算 Create budget,获得经理的同意 Manager buy-in,分析绩效 Analyze performan
5、ce,检查差异 Examine variations,基础：术语、预算周期以及预算的理由 Fundamentals: Terminology, Budget Cycle, and Reasons for Budgeting,预算周期 Budget Cycle,7,预算的理由 计划 强迫检验未来，预期，输入不同来源的想法，不同的观点，方向，更好的方法，框架，被动/主动的态度 沟通和协调 组织的不同部门，每个人都致力于组织的（共同）目标 Reason for Budgeting Planning force to examine the future, expectation, input of
6、idea from multiple resources, different viewpoint, direction, better way, framework, reactive/proactive manner Communication and coordination different parts of the organization, everyone work toward the (common) goals of the organization,基础：术语、预算周期以及预算的理由 Fundamentals: Terminology, Budget Cycle, an
7、d Reasons for Budgeting,8,预算的理由 监督 标准、绩效指标、将实际结果与预算结果作比较，差异、纠正行动 评估 承担责任，经理人的业绩，根本原因，对好业绩进行激励。 Reason for Budgeting Monitoring standards, performance indicators, comparing the actual results to the budgeted results, variance, corrective action Evaluation held responsible, managers performance, root
8、cause, rewarding for good performance,基础：术语、预算周期以及预算的理由 Fundamentals: Terminology, Budget Cycle, and Reasons for Budgeting,9,经营与业绩目标 Operation and Performance Goals,实体的能力与市场机会相结合，战略方向与长期计划（预算），短期计划（预算），见图表1A-2 根据既定目标评估业绩的作用，使用过去的绩效作为目标，错误和问题自动成为参考因素；基准过低或过高都会缺乏激励作用 Entitys capabilities with marketpl
9、ace opportunities, strategic direction vs. long-term plan (budget), short-term plan (budget), see figure 1A-2 A role in measuring performance against established goals; using past performance solely as goal, mistake and problems are automatically factored in; both lower and unrealistic higher goals
10、is unmotivating,10,经营与业绩目标 Operation and Performance Goal,期望结果作为评估标准，预见并考虑经营环境的变化 可控成本和任意成本，在一个短期的时间内 承诺成本是不可控的 可控成本对绩效评估和预算编制是有用的 Expected result as benchmark, predict and account for circumstances change Controllable cost and discretionary cost, within a short amount to time Committed cost are not
11、 controllable Controllable costs are useful for performance evaluation and budgeting,11,成功预算的特征 Characteristics of Successful Budgeting,与公司战略保持一致 过程独立，但来自于战略计划和预测 减轻潜在的瓶颈，资源配置的效率和效果 技术上正确无误，合理准确的数字和事实 管理层认可预算 计划、沟通与协调工具 Aligned with corporate strategy Keep separate but flow from strategic planning a
12、nd forecasts Alleviate potential bottlenecks, allocate resources efficiently and effectively Technically correct, accurate number and facts Management endorse (buy-in) the budget Planning, communication and coordinating tool,12,朝相同的目标努力 内部控制工具 关键假设能得到更好的理解 上级部门必须审核与批准预算 最终预算不应轻易改变，但足够灵活 平衡遵循预算的员工的信息
13、输入与高级管理层的评估 Work toward organization goals Internal control device Key assumption can be better understood Higher authority must review and approve the budget Final budget not be easily changed but be flexible enough Balance information input from employee against review of the budget by upper manag
14、ement,成功预算的特征 Characteristics of Successful Budgeting,13,成功预算过程的特征 Characteristics of Successful Budget Process,预算期财政年度，三/五/十年的预算，月/季度预算，连续性或滚动预算 Budget period fiscal year, three/five/ten year budgets, monthly/quarterly budget, continuous and rolling budgets,14,预算流程见图表1A-3 Budget process - see figur
15、e 1A-3,成功预算过程的特征 Characteristics of Successful Budget Process,15,预算流程 Budget process,成功预算过程的特征 Characteristics of Successful Budget Process,16,综合预算流程的步骤 包括管理层与有专长的员工 与参与者沟通战略方向 制定预算初稿 低层向高层提交预算，强调双向沟通 严格而公正的预算审批 Steps in combined budgetary process Involving management and employee with expertise Com
16、municate strategy direction to participants Create first draft Lower to higher with communication in both direction Rigorous and fair budget approval,成功预算过程的特征 Characteristics of Successful Budget Process,17,预算参与者 董事会负责审查预算，任命预算委员会成员 高级管理层负责预算，确保管理层理解和支持预算，激励下属制定出真实完整的预算，僵化的预算使长期的成本更高 Budget partici
17、pants Board of directors responsible to review budget and appoint the member of budget committee Top management responsible for budgets, ensure subordinate to understand and support budget, motivate them to make truthful and complete budget, rigid budget may cost more in the long run,成功预算过程的特征 Chara
18、cteristics of Successful Budget Process,18,预算参与者 预算委员会大型公司，由高级经理组成，指导/核准/裁决/监控/检查/审查预算 中低层级的经理做具体的工作，遵循预算指导方针，责任中心/战略性业务部门，确定成本/收入/投资决策 Budeget Participants Budget committee large corporation, made up of senior management, direct/approve/rule on/monitor/review budget Middle and lower management do s
19、pecific work, follow budget guidelines, responsibility center/strategic business unit, make cost/revenue/investment decision,成功预算过程的特征 Characteristics of Successful Budget Process,19,预算参与者 预算协调者识别并解决不同责任中心的分歧以及总预算不同部分间的分歧 流程专家非管理人员，对成本有细致的了解，不仅给预算以更多的关注，而且有责任感，增加遵循的可能性 Budeget Participants Budget co
20、ordinator identify and resolve discrepancies between centers and portion of a master budget Process experts nonmanagerial employees, detailed understanding of cost, not only bring more focus but also take ownership, increase likelihood of being followed,成功预算过程的特征 Characteristics of Successful Budget
21、 Process,20,预算步骤 预算提案备忘录和指示传达给责任中心，编制预算初稿，兼顾内外部因素 预算商议预算检查，占用很多时间 预算检查与批准合并预算为总预算，由预算委员会和董事会批准 Budgeting steps Budget proposal memo or directive sent to responsibility center, prepare initial budget, internal and external factors Budget negotiation budget reviewed, take a bulk of time Budget review
22、and approval combined budget become master budget, approved by committee and board of directors,成功预算过程的特征 Characteristics of Successful Budget Process,21,预算步骤 预算修正预算的刚性各不相同，修正是有必要的，但是门槛要足够高，保留原始预算以作比较 Budgeting steps Budge revision rigidity of a budget varies, revision is necessary but threshold set
23、 high enough, original budget kept for comparison,成功预算过程的特征 Characteristics of Successful Budget Process,22,成本标准 标准 单位产品为基础，用于编制预算，根据环境变化更新标准成本，预算数量与标准数量 Cost standards Standard a per-unit basis, used to prepare budgets, updated as circumstance change, budgeted amount and standard amount,成功预算过程的特征 C
24、haracteristics of Successful Budget Process,23,成本标准 标准的类型 权威式标准由管理层制定，很快制定，与目标匹配，可能不能得到遵循 参与式标准涉及各方，更可能被接受，耗费较多的时间，确保实现经营目标 Cost Standard - Types of standards Authoritative standard determined by management, speedily set, closely match goals, may not be followed Participative standards all involved
25、parties, likely be adopted, take more time, ensure goals are met,成功预算过程的特征 Characteristics of Successful Budget Process,24,成本标准 标准的类型 理想标准远期目标，产生最佳的可能结果，持续改进战略和全面质量管理理念，实现理想标准的进展，而不是理想标准的偏离，来衡量和奖励成功 Cost Standard - Types of standards Ideal standard forward looking goal, result in the best possible o
26、utcome, continuous improvement strategy and total quality management philosophy, progress toward ideal standards instead of deviation from the ideal to measure and reward success,成功预算过程的特征 Characteristics of Successful Budget Process,25,成本标准 标准的类型 当前可实现的标准与历史标准有些相似，受过恰当培训的人按正常速度操作，标准太低会导致员工工作过慢 Cost
27、 Standard - Types of standards Current attainable standard close to historical standard, properly trained individuals at a normal pace, standard too low encourage work more slowly than needed,成功预算过程的特征 Characteristics of Successful Budget Process,26,成本标准 直接材料与直接人工的标准成本确定每一单位的产出所需要的投入的数量 直接材料标准成本质量是第
28、一决定要素，由目标市场决定，价格的设定参考质量、数量和供应链成本数据组成 Cost Standard Standard cost for direct materials and labor number of units of input required to get on unit of output Standard costs for direct materials quality determined first, determined by target market, price set as combination of quality, quantity, and sup
29、ply chain cost,成功预算过程的特征 Characteristics of Successful Budget Process,27,成本标准 直接人工标准成本 复杂度，技能水平，设备条件，流程本质，管理会计师，工程师，经理，工会，人力资源，停工，工间休息，基于毛收入，福利/加班费/轮班补贴属于间接费用 Cost Standard Standard costs for direct labor complexity, skill levels, condition of equipment, nature of process, management accountant, eng
30、ineer, manager, labor union, human resource, downtime, worker breaks, based on gross pay, fringe benefit/overtime/ shift premium are overhead,成功预算过程的特征 Characteristics of Successful Budget Process,28,成本标准 标准设定中的支持信息 作业分析作业，资源/投入，分析投入的直接成本，间接成本的分配，最彻底的成本核算，但是费用最大 历史数据相对容易，但是相对不可靠，将最佳业绩作为标准 Cost Stand
31、ard - Sources for standard setting Activity analysis activities, resource/input, analyze direct cost of inputs, allocation of indirect cost, most thorough costing but expensive methods Historical data relative inexpensive but is less reliable, the best recorded performance can be used,成功预算过程的特征 Char
32、acteristics of Successful Budget Process,29,成本标准 标准设定中的支持信息 市场预期与战略决策决定最大成本水平，目标成本法 标杆分析与最优业绩水平相比较，不好的标杆会导致负面效应，不会带来重大突破 Cost Standard - Sources for standard setting Market expectation and strategic decision determine a maximum cost level, target costing Benchmarking measure against best levels of p
33、erformance, poor benchmark have negative results, not produce breakthroughs,成功预算过程的特征 Characteristics of Successful Budget Process,30,资源配置 Resource Allocation,总预算 特定时期内的运营控制，在预期业务活动水平上保持不变。 战略机会与威胁，优势与劣势，预算以战略为基础或以前一年的预算为基础 长期计划确保战略实施，资本预算 短期目标长期计划中的变动 Master budget controlling operations for a spec
34、ific period of time, fixed at expected level of business activity Strategy opportunity and threats, advantages and weakness, match, budget based on strategy or prior years budget long-term planning ensure strategy implemented, capital budgeting Short-term objective variation of long-term plan,31,总预算
35、的组成要素 图表1A-4 经营预算通过购买或生产获得资源 财务预算资金使用与资金来源的匹配 资本预算评估与挑选项目 Master budget components Figure 1A-4 Operating budget acquisition of resources through purchase and manufacture Financial budget match sources of funds with uses of funds Capital budget evaluating and selecting projects,资源配置 Resource Allocati
36、on,32,第二节：预测技术 Topic 2: Forecasting Techniques,33,数量分析方法 Quantitative Methods,数据分析 关系与模式，预测结果 模型建立 数学模型 决策理论 不确定，期望价值，敏感性分析 Data analysis relation and pattern, predict outcome Model building mathematical model Decision theory uncertainty, expected value, sensitivity analysis,34,回归分析 Regression Analy
37、sis,线性回归分析 一个变量对另一变量的影响，应变量（Y），自变量（X） 假设 直线性，静止的，（误差）平均为零，固定的标准差，多元回归的自变量相互独立 Linear regression analysis impact one variable has on another variable, dependent variable (Y), independent variable (X) Assumption Linearity, Stationary, a mean of zero and a constant standard deviations, independent vari
38、ables in multiple regression are independent,35,回归分析 Regression Analysis,简单线性回归 案例 图表1A-5,1A-6, 1A-7 R方 T值 估计的标准差 Simple Linear Regression Example - Figure 1A-5, page 20, Figure 1A-6, page 21, Figure 1A-7, page 22 R-squared T-value Standard error of estimate,36,多元回归分析 回归分析的利益和缺点 客观衡量，准备数据表，异常值，假设中的问
39、题，变量之间的关系随时间而变化，相关范围，关系的合理性 Multiple Linear Regression Benefit and shortcoming of regression analysis Objective measure, prepare a graph of data, outlier, assumption is problematic, changes in the relationship between the variable over time, relevant range, reasonableness of the relationship,回归分析 Re
40、gression Analysis,37,时间序列分析 Time Series Analysis,时间序列分析 使用时间作为自变量 案例 图表1A-8,图表1A-9,图表1A-10 趋势、周期、季节性、无规则波动 时间序列分析的利益与局限 决定扩展或退出业务或产品市场，假设过去的模式会继续下去 Time series analysis using time as independent variable Example Figure 1A-8, Figure 1A-9, Figure 1A-10 Trend, Cycles, Seasonality, Irregular variation B
41、enefit and Limitation of Time Series Analysis Make decision to expand or exit the business or product market, Assume past pattern will continue,38,平滑法 Smoothing,移动平滑 数学公式 加权移动平滑 数学公式 指数平滑 数学公式 Ft+1=aYt+(1-a)Ft Moving Averages Mathematical formula page 27 Weighted Moving Averages Mathematical formula
42、 page 28 Exponential Moving Averages Mathematical formula Ft+1=aYt+(1-a)Ft,39,学习曲线分析 Learning Curve Analysis,学习曲线分析 在完成任何后变得更有效率，学习增加时成本降低，在某点之后趋平 增量单位时间学习模型 增量单位学习模型 图表1A-11, 1A-12 Learning curve analysis become more efficient at completing tasks, costs decrease as learning increase, level off afte
43、r certain point Incremental Unit-time Learning Model Incremental unit-time learning model Figure 1A-11, page 30, 1A-12, page 31,40,学习曲线分析 Learning Curve Analysis,累计平均时间学习模型 累计平均时间学习模型 图表1A-13，1A-14 学习曲线分析的利益和局限 制定决策（定价），评价业绩 最适用于劳动密集性，学习率并不固定，可能不可靠 Cumulative Average-time Learning Model Cumulative a
44、verage-time learning model Figure 1A-13, page 31, 1A-14, page 32 Benefit and limitation of Learning curve analysis Make decision (setting price), evaluating performance Most appropriate for labor intensive, learning rate are not constant, might be unreliable,41,期望价值 Expected Value,案例 图表1A-15 期望价值的利益
45、和局限 平均结果，不确定，假设可能不可靠，风险中性 Example Figure 1A-15, page 33 Benefit and limitation of Expected Value Average outcome, uncertainty, assumption might be unreliable, risk-neutral,42,敏感性分析 Sensitivity Analysis,敏感性分析 如果-怎样分析，改变一个具体的变量（输入），结果对输入的改变有多敏感，哪个输入对决策选项至关重要 案例 图表1A-16 敏感性分析的利益与局限 决策结果对估计的变化如何敏感，估计之间的
46、相互关系 Sensitivity analysis what-if analysis, changing a specific variable (input), how sensitive the outcome to changes in the input, which point of input is critical for decision alternative Example Figure 1A-16, page 34 Benefit and Limitation of Sensitivity Analysis How susceptible the outcome of d
47、ecision to changes in estimate, mutual relationship of estimate,43,第三节：预算方法 Topic 3: Budgeting Methodologies,44,预算编制的选项 Options for Budget Creation,总预算 年度经营计划，利润计划，从销售开始，财务模拟报表结束，好处多多，几乎没有缺点，六种不同的预算系统 Master budget annual business plan, profit plan, starting with sales budgets, end with pro forma fi
48、nancial statement, benefit numerous and drawback few, six different budgeting system,45,项目预算 Project Budgeting,项目预算 与公司的其他要素完全分离，时间框架，间接费用简单处理，单个影响易于衡量，当项目使用被整个公司占用的资源或人员时有局限 Project budget completely separate from other element of a company, time frame, overhead simplified, individual impact easily measured, limitation occurs when project use resources and staff committed to entire organization,46,作业预算法 Activity-Based Budgeting,
