1、Seamless Computing Opportunities & Challenges for China,Kai-Fu Lee Corporate Vice President Microsoft Corporation,Talk Outline,IT & Growth Seamless Computing Opportunities for China,Software : Engine of growth,Power of software today: US$200 Billion industry 10 million well-paid professionals Increa
2、sed efficiency everywhere 5 times faster growth than GDP Will the growth continue? Microsoft: YES! Microsoft R&D: 1998 : $3 billion 2004 : $7.9 billion What fuels this growth? Moores law Waves of innovation.,PC Architecture Operating Systems,Spreadsheets Word Processors,PC 1980,Internet 1995,Applica
3、tions 1990,Seamless Computing 2005,Speech/Writing,XML/SOAP HTTP/HTML SMTP,Internet Web Browser Email Clients,Wi-Fi/Broadband,Devices everywhere,Web Services,Rights Management,Trusted Computing Hardware,Mouse GUI LANs,Desktop publishing Enterprise applications,Waves of Innovation,Research & Developme
4、nt Engineering Intellectual Property,Market Adoption Intellectual Property Economic Value,Information Driven,Experiences,Connected,Self-organization,Replication,Speech & Intelligent UI,Content Addressability,Amazing visualization,Machine-to-Machine Interaction,Person-to-Person Interaction,Person-to-
5、Machine Interaction,Ink & Handwriting,Seamless Computing: The Next Wave,User Interface Evolution,Digital Decade XML Web Services Smart devices,Natural User Interface Do what I mean,NUI Interaction Natural & task-based Expressive & efficient Scalable & adaptive,“To me, speech recognition will be a tr
6、ansforming capability when you can speak to your computer and it will understand what youre saying in context.” Gordon Moore“Speech and natural language understanding are the key technologies that will have the most impact in the next 15 years.” Bill Gates,A Roadmap Towards NUI Vision,A Roadmap Towa
7、rds NUI Vision,A Roadmap Towards NUI Vision,A Roadmap Towards NUI Vision,A Roadmap Towards NUI Vision,A Roadmap Towards NUI Vision,A Roadmap Towards NUI Vision,What is the best University in California?,A Roadmap Towards NUI Vision,A Roadmap Towards NUI Vision,A Roadmap Towards NUI Vision,Speech Acc
8、elerated by Super-Moores Law,Enable human-level speech recognition (SR): Leveraging Moores Law + more data + research Predictable 10% error reduction or more per year Human-level performance possible in 10-20 yearsAlso enable natural language, Bayesian learning.,IT & Software : Opportunities for Chi
9、na,China China = #1 factor in Asias growth Huge market #2 PC market in the world #1 phone market in the world Huge growth 25% CAGR in IT 50% in software & services,Opportunities Leverage strong traditional industries Large talent pool Outsourcing becoming global trend,Challenges Lacks software eco-s
10、ystem Lacks IT leadership talent India is far ahead in outsourcing,India : World Leader in Outsourcing,“Ideal” population for outsourcing English-speaking country with good education Entry-level call center jobs with growth path 700 million people under 35 Highly adaptable culture Process leadership
11、 Cost optimization “Go to India for cost; stay for quality” Valuable companies with ambition beyond outsourcing Top 4 companies worth US$50B showing astounding growth Good environment for start-up companies,Opportunities Insatiable demand for outsourcing Aspiration to build software company,Challeng
12、es Lacks infrastructure/modern cities Lacks domestic market,Recommendations for China,Today: Learn by building an outsourcing industry (like India): Learn from Indian companies, build 2-3 large companies. Stimulate software companies with high-demand US customers Be willing to take on “simple” work
13、(testing, localization) Educate talent with English, intl sales, large proj. mgmt. skills Develop a Chinese IT software industry (like US): Leverage Chinas huge domestic market & traditional industries Build on areas where software value is understood (enterprise) Educate talent with market research
14、, customer-focus experience Lead by finding leapfrog opportunities that favor China: Web services : Disruptive change + advantage for local players Mobility & phone : Unique market that is advanced & large Educate leadership talent by improving higher education “Hard skills” : international business
15、, management, process “Soft skills”: teamwork, communication, “EQ” Future: Software export to international market,Conclusion,Opportunities for China Learn by starting an outsourcing industry Develop own IT ecosystem from traditional industries Lead by finding opportunities to leapfrog Educate engin
16、eering talent to become leadership talent,Software is the proven & continual engine of growth,China will harness this engine to become a world technology leader,问答,网上交流： 我的文章、报道、演讲 （包括这个讲座） 帮中国学生搜集的资源（从编程到做人） 我在论坛上有问必答 欢迎发表意见、提问题、帮助别的学生 欢迎介绍你的朋友参与, 2004 Microsoft Corporation. All rights reserved. This presentation is for informational purposes only. MICROSOFT MAKES NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, IN THIS SUMMARY.,
