1、M A R C H 16 TH22N D 201 9P lane t ruths about BoeingT hailand s s ham democr acyGoodb y e to C hina s sur plusA special r eport on NA T O at 7 0Wh atever next?OHUK !每日免费获取报告1、每日微信群内分享7+最新重磅报告；2、每日分享当日华尔街日报、金融时报；3、每周分享经济学人4、行研报告均为公开版，权利归原作者所有，起点财经仅分发做内部学习。扫一扫二维码关注公号回复：研究报告加入“起点财经”微信群。 COLLECTIONVill
2、e retPhotograph: BEIJING CANNES DUBAI GENEV A HONG KONG KUALA LUMPUR LAS VEGAS LONDON MACAU MADRIDMANAMA MOSCOW MUNICH NEW YORK P ARIS SEOUL SHANGHAI SINGAPORE T AIPEI TOKYO ZURICHT he E conomist Mar ch 16th 2 01 9 3C ontent s continues o v er leaf1C ontent sT he w or ld this w eek6 A round-up of po
3、liticaland business newsL eader s11 Bre xitWhatever ne xt?12 The tr ansatlanticrelationshipW orth fighting for14 The aircr aft industryPlane truths14 China s balanc e ofpaymentsThe big flip16 Mental he althShrinks , e xpanded17 Thailand s boguselectionGener al declineL etter s18 On Islam, China, pri
4、ests ,medicine , defenc e, theperiodic table , the OscarsBriefing21 American corpor atedebtCarry that weightSpecial r epor t : N ato at 7 0Mature reflectionAft er page 44Bri tain25 Bre xit and P arliament26 Extending Article 5027 The spring statement27 Bloody Sunday28 A new audit w atchdog28 W omen-
5、only colleges29 Se xing up the NHS30 Bagehot The r ac e toreplac e Theresa MayEu ro p e31 Ukr aine s tr agicomicelection32 Turk ey s R ussian missiles34 Annegret Kr amp-Karrenbauer tilts right34 Croatia s supercar35 Norw ay , Switzerland andthe EU36 Charlemagne Le P en 3.0Uni ted States37 The techla
6、sh continues38 C ollege admissions39 Illegal migr ation42 New Y ork property42 Mar-a-Lago massages43 The hot labour mark et44 Le xingtonIrish- AmericansT he Americas45 B olsonaro s digital bullypulpit46 V enezuela s black out46 The pe ac e proc ess inC olombia tak es a knock48 B ello Me xico s reluc
7、tantliber alMiddle E ast he came a close second in theSenate r ac e in T e xas last ye ar . Nancy P elosi , the Democr aticSpe ak er of the House, said thatshe would not support aneort to impe ach DonaldT rump . She said: “He s just notworth it. ” 8 T he E conomist Mar ch 16th 2 01 9T he w or ld thi
8、s w eek BusinessThe cr ash of an EthiopianAirlines jet, killing all 157 peo-ple on board, r aised safetyquestions about B oeing s 737max 8 aircr aft . It w as thesecond time a max 8 hascr ashed within five months ,with what appe ar to be similarproblems on tak e-o. As aprecaution the eu stopped thep
9、lane from flying, as did man ycountries , including A ustr alia,China and, eventually , Ameri-ca. Amid reports that the air-cr aft s softw are may be at fault,B oeing w as forc ed to groundthe entire global fleet of 737max 8s . Turk ey s econom y fell intorec ession at the end of 20 18. F orthe whol
10、e of 20 18 the econom ygrew by 2.6%, the we ak est pac ein a decade and far below the7.4% recorded in 20 17 in thew ak e of the government sconstruction-led stimulus . Theeconom y took a hit last ye arfrom a run on the lir a, causedin part by unc ertainty aboutthe political independenc e ofthe c ent
11、r al bank. China s e xports declined byalmost 2 1% in F ebruary com-pared with the same monthlast ye ar , a much worse show-ing than most economists hadforecast. Imports fell by 5.2%.The Chinese new-ye ar c elebr a-tions may ha ve had a distortingeect. China s over all tr adesurplus for the month na
12、r-rowed sharply , to $4. 1bn. Another big monthly drop inGerman industrial productionled to more conc ern about theeuro zone s econom y. TheEurope an C entr al Bankrec ently slashed its forecast forgrowth this ye ar to 1.1% from aprevious projection of 1.7% andpushed back an y rise ininterest r ates
13、 until at le ast theend of the ye ar . It alsoannounc ed a new progr ammeof che ap loans for banks .Statistical outlier s?In a grim week for economicnews , American employersadded just 20,000 jobs to thepayrolls in F ebruary , far belowthe 3 11,000 that were cre ated inJanuary . Still, F ebruary mar
14、k edthe 101st consecutive month ofjob growth, a record stre ak.Ned Sharpless , the director ofAmerica s National Canc erInstitute , w as appointed theacting commissioner of theFood and Drug A dministr a-tion , following the surpriseannounc ement by Scott Got-tlieb that he is standing downfor persona
15、l re asons . In one ofhis final acts Mr Gottlieb thisweek issued regulations that ineect will stop con venienc estores and petrol stations fromselling a wide r ange offla voured e-cigarettes . In a de al that highlights itsshift aw ay from making high-end chips for the video-gameindustry , Nvidia ag
16、reed to buyMellano x , which providestechnologies for artificialintelligenc e, machine le arningand data analytics , for $6.9bn.Mellano x w as founded inIsr ael, where companies thatproduc e ai -related technologyare flourishing .Volksw agen ramped up itsplans for electric cars , an-nouncing that it
17、 intends tolaunch almost 70 new modelsover the ne xt decade , inste ad ofthe 50 it had planned. It nowe xpects battery-powered vehi-cles to ac count for 40% of itssales by 2030, making it thelargest car firm that is commit-ted to electrification by somedistanc e. The switch to electriccars , which n
18、eed fewer work-ers to mak e than the gas-guz-zling sort, thre atens jobs . Thisis lik ely to provok e a confron-tation with the firm s powerfulunions .R enault , Nissan and Mitsub-ishi Motors cre ated a new“consensus based” structurefor their allianc e, as they try tomove on from the arrest ofCarlos
19、 Ghosn for allegedfinancial wrongdoing (MrGhosn denies the charges). Thenew board replac es an arr ange-ment where Mr Ghosn sat atthe pinnacle of the allianc e. Itis chaired by Je an-DominiqueSenard, R enault s new chair-man. The ce os of the threecarmak ers are the board s othermembers . Mr Senard
20、will not,however , also become Nissan schairman, settling inste ad forvic e-chairman. The cross-compan y stak es that e achcarmak er holds stay the same . Barrick Gold dropped its $ 18bnhostile bid for NewmontMining , ending a short butfierc e tak eover battle in whiche ach side criticised the other
21、 smanagement str ategy . The pairare inste ad to cre ate the world slargest goldmining site in ajoint venture in Nev ada.T he latest tw istLevi Str auss filed for an ipo onthe New Y ork Stock Ex change ,which could see the in ventor ofblue je ans v alued at up to$6.2bn. The 165-ye ar-old cloth-ier w
22、 as tak en priv ate in 1985after 14 ye ars as a public com-pan y on the stockmark et.As Tesla prepared to launch itsnewest vehicle , the Model Y ,Elon Musk s lawyers filed adefenc e against the Securitiesand Ex change C ommission sclaim that he w as in contemptof court for tweeting mis-le ading comp
23、an y information,which would contr a vene lastye ar s settlement with theregulator . The filing ac cusesthe se c of tr ampling on MrMusk s right to free speech.Tesla, me an while , made asharp U-turn and said it wouldnot close most of itsshowrooms after all. L eader s 11When his torians come to writ
24、e the tale of Britain s at-tempts to le a ve the Europe an U nion, this week may beseen as the moment the country finally gr asped the mess it w asin. In the campaign, Le a vers had promised voters that Bre xitwould be e asy because Britain “holds all the cards” . This weekP arliament w as so scornf
25、ul of the e xit de al that Theresa May hadspent two ye ars negotiating and renegotiating in Brussels thatmp s threw it out for a second time , by 149 votesthe fourth-big-gest government defe at in modern parliamentary history . Thene xt day mp s rejected what had onc e been her back -up plan ofsimpl
26、y w alking out without a de al. The prime minister has lostcontrol. On W ednesday four cabinet ministers failed to back herin a crucial vote . B oth main parties , long divided over Bre xit, areseeing their factions splintering into ever-angrier sub-factions .And all this just two weeks before e xit
27、 day .Even by the chaotic standards of the three ye ars sinc e the ref-erendum, the country is lost (see Britain section). Mrs Mayboasted this week of “ sending a message to the whole worldabout the sort of country the U nited Kingdom will be” . She is notwrong: it is a laughing -stock. An unflappab
28、le plac e supposedlybuilt on compromise and a sti upper lip is consumed by ac cusa-tions of tre achery and betr ay al. Y et the demolition of her plan of-fers Britain a chanc e to rethink its misguided approach to le a v-ing the eu . Mrs May has made the worst of a badjob . This week s chaos gives t
29、he country a shot atcoming up with something better .The immediate consequenc e of the rebellionin W estminster is that Bre xit must be delayed.As we went to press , P arliament w as to vote foran e xtension of the March 29th de adline . F or itsown sak e the eu should agree . A no-de al Bre xitwoul
30、d hurt Britain grievously , but it would alsohurt the eu and Ireland as grievously as Britain.Mrs May s plan is to hold yet another vote on her de al and tocudgel Bre xiteers into supporting it by thre atening them with along e xtension that she says risks the canc ellation of Bre xit alto-gether .
31、A t the same time she will twist the arms of moder ates bypointing out that a no-de al Bre xit could still happen, becausea voiding it depends on the agreement of the eu , which is losingpatienc e. It is a desper ate tactic from a prime minister who haslost her authority . It forc es mp s to choose
32、between options theyfind wretched when they are con vinc ed that better alternativesare a v ailable . Even if it suc c eeds , it would deprive Britain of thestable , truly consenting majority that would serve as the founda-tion for the daunting series of votes needed to enact Bre xit andfor the even
33、 harder talks on the future relationship with the eu .To overcome the impasse cre ated by today s divisions , Britainneeds a long e xtension. The question is how to use it to forge thatstable , consenting majority in P arliament and the country .An incre asingly popular answer is: get rid of Mrs May
34、 . Theprime minister s de al has flopped and her authority is shot. Agrowing number of T ories believe that a new le ader with a newmandate could bre ak the log jam (see Bagehot). Y et there is a highrisk that C onserv ative P arty members would install a replac e-ment who tak es the country tow ard
35、s an ultr a-hard Bre xit. What smore , replacing Mrs May would do little to solve the riddle ofhow to put together a de al. The parties are fundamentally split.To believe that a new tenant in Downing Street could put themback together again and engineer a majority is to believe theBre xiteers fantas
36、y that theirs is a brilliant project that is merelybeing badly e x ecuted.Calls for a gener al election are equally misguided. The coun-try is as divided as the parties . Britain could go through its fourthpoll in as man y ye ars only to end up where it started. T ory mp smight fall into line if the
37、y had been elected on a manifesto pro-mising to enact the de al. But would the C onserv atives re ally gointo an election based on Mrs May s scheme , which has twic ebeen given a drubbing by mp s and w as described this week evenby one supportive T ory mp as “the best turd that we ha ve”? It doesnot
38、 ha ve the ring of a suc c essful campaign.To bre ak the log jam, Mrs May needs to do two things . The firstis to consult P arliament, in a series of indicative votes that willreve al what form of Bre xit can command a majority . The secondis to call a referendum to mak e that choic e legitimate . T
39、 oday ev-ery faction sticks to its red lines , claiming to be spe aking for thepeople . Only this combination can put those arguments to rest.Tak e these steps in turn. Despite the gridlock, the outlines of aparliamentary compromise are visible . Labour w ants permanentmembership of the eu s customs
40、 union, whichis a bit closer to the eu than Mrs May s de al. Al-ternatively , mp s may fa vour a Norw ay-style set-upwhich this newspaper has argued for andwould k eep Britain in the single mark et. The euis open to both. Only if Mrs May cannot estab-lish a consensus should she return to her ownmuch
41、-criticised plan.Getting votes for these or an y other approachwould require thinking beyond party lines . That does not comenatur ally in Britain s adversarial, majoritarian policies . But thewhipping system is bre aking down. P arty structures are fr aying .Bre akaw ay groups and parties-within-pa
42、rties are forming onboth sides of the C ommons , and across it. Oering mp s free votescould foster cross-party support for a new approach. The second step is a confirmatory referendum. Bre xit re-quires Britain to tr ade o going its own w ay with maintainingprofitable ties with the eu . An y new Bre
43、 xit plan that P arliamentconcocts will inevitably demand compromises that disappointman y, perhaps most, voters . Mrs May and other critics argue thatholding another referendum would be undemocr atic (nevermind that Mrs May is prepared to ask mp s to vote on her de al athird or even fourth time). B
44、ut the original referendum cam-paign utterly failed to capture the comple xities of Bre xit. Thetruly undemocr atic course would be to den y voters the chanc e tovouch that, yes , they are content with how it has turned out. And so an y de al that P arliament approves must be put to thepublic for a
45、final say . It will be decried by hardline Bre xiteers astre asonous and by hardline R emainers as an act of self-harm.F orget them. It is for the public to decide whether they are in fa-vour of the new relationship with the eu or whether , on reflec-tion, they would r ather stick with the one they
46、alre ady ha ve . 7Whatever ne xt?Britain s crisis has plumbed new depths . P arliament must seize the initiative to lift the country out of chaosL eader s12 L eader s T he E conomist Mar ch 16th 2 01 9The a tlantic ocean is starting to look awfully wide . To Euro-pe ans the U nited States appe ars e
47、ver more remote , under apuzzling president who delights in bullying them, questions thefuture of the tr ansatlantic allianc e and sometimes shows morew armth tow ards dictators than democr ats . Americans see anageing continent that, though fine for tourists , is coming apart atthe se ams political
48、ly and falling behind economicallyas feeblein growth as it is exc essive in regulation. T o A tlanticists, includ-ing this newspaper , such fatalism about the divisions betweenEurope and America is worrying . It is also misplac ed.T rue , some gaps are glaring . America has abandoned the P arisclima
49、te ac cord and the nucle ar de al with Ir an, where as Europeremains committed to both. Other disagreements thre aten.President Donald T rump has called the Europe an U nion a “foe”on tr ade and is weighing up punitive taris on Europe an cars .T rust has plummeted. Only one in ten Germans has confidenc ethat Mr T rump will do the right thing in world aairs , down fromne arly nine out of ten who trusted Bar ack Obama in 20 16. Twentyye ars ago na to c elebr ated its 50th annivers
