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1、,A global perspective on Latin AmericaEmily Morris Senior Economist/Editor, Latin AmericaOctober 2006,The EIU Editor/Economist/Analysts world,The global outlook,EIU global medium-term forecast: tougher times ahead,US$ GDP per head at PPP: % growth,Key points,OECD slowdown US growth slips over the ne

2、xt 18 months But Japan, then Europe, pick up some of the slack Emerging markets also slowing, but Most regions still performing well Debt has been substantially reduced Risks abound US slowdown could become a recession Interest rates rising globally; end of easy money Oil worries; volatile commodity

3、 prices,The slowdown begins,Y on Y, %,Growth in real GDP weighted at mkt exchange rates,US: Consumers take a break,US to slow in 2006 Consumer fatigueSpending from 3.9% in 04 to 1.9% in 07Higher interest ratesSlowing housingRising debt Exports up, imports slowAs dollar weakens Recovery starting in 0

4、8,Consumer spending, % change,Euro zone: Growth has returned,Euro zone improvementGDP growth from 0.7% in 03 to 2.1% in 06Investment firstUnemployment rate now fallingInterest rates are rising Further to go Slight slowdown in 07 Taxes will rise in Germany,Economic growth, % change,Japan: Business re

5、covery,Japan has bounced backDomestic recoveryBalance sheets, investment, hiring, spending betterInvestment from -5% in 02 to 4.3% in 06Supportive external environment: ChinaBut monetary and fiscal tightening in 07,Emerging markets issues,East-central Europe Strong domestic demand and exports CIS (R

6、ussia et al) High commodity prices, but production stresses weak domestic demand, populism,sovereign ratings never been better,Strong external positionsCurrent-account surplusesexcept Turkey, E EuropeCurrency appreciationRising FX reservesNet external debt repaymentsImproved solvency / liquidity,Ave

7、rage EIU sovereign risk score,Source: EIU Country Risk Service,Average of 100 markets, scores range from 0-100 where 100 is high risk,Global signs of stress: inflation is edging higher,US=PCE core Y on Y, % change Eurozone=All items Y on Y, % change,Benchmark rates: 2% is top of central banks comfor

8、t zone,central banks are tightening,%,US Fed funds rate; ECB refinancing rate; BOJ OCR,Main policy interest rate,global interest rates are rising,Yield, %,and US house price gains slowing,Existing house prices, % change Y on Y,Prices no longer rising by double-digits,Average April price: $223,000,La

9、tin America,Latin America in the global context: a slowdown, but better than before,Improved solvency and liquidity,Latin American projections: 2-year forecasts and risks, and medium term prospects,Latin America external accounts,% of GDP,Latin America: the longer term,Structural factors Initial GDP per worker Demographics Human capital Geography Policy variables Macroeconomic management Regulation Institutions External environment Changes in the terms of trade,Latin America: long-term growth,A global perspective, is only part of the story,