1、Large-Scale Solar Power Development in China June 9, 2011 Beijing, China,Introduction Clinton Climate Initiative,CCI works under the leadership of government partners, and in collaboration with private sector stakeholders, to develop and implement pilot projects that directly reduce greenhouse gas e
2、missions and serve as replicable and scalable models for others to followCCIs three focus areas are: Cities energy efficiency, waste management, street lighting, transportation Clean energy solar, carbon capture and sequestration Forestry reforestation and avoided deforestationCCI staff includes peo
3、ple with backgrounds in finance, consulting, industry, engineering and public policyCCI acts as an independent advisor and facilitator and has no financial ties to or interests in any company or project it is involved withThree topics for todays presentation: Introduction to CCI and CSP Solar Park c
4、oncept and forecast reductions in CSP costs CCI previous experience with large-scale CSP,2,3,Where We Work,Malaysia,New Focus on China,Comparison of PV and CSP,4,Global CSP Installation,There is an aggressive pipeline of CSP projects, led by Spain and the US,AT Kearney.,Global Installed CSP Capacity
5、 Through 2015, GW(1),5,Advantages of Developing CSP in PRC,6,Leading development of technology Capitalize on experience building a world-leading PV manufacturing industry Further development of domestic manufacturing in response to domestic demand Skilled-job creation and economic development Play a
6、 role in meeting significant global demand growth anticipated in near-term Diversity of energy supply Strong solar resource (DNI radiation required for CSP) in western region Builds clean energy supply capacity Dispatchability,Suggested Business Model: Solar Parks,A Solar Park is a concentrated zone
7、 of solar development that includes multiple gigawatts of solar energy generation capacity, pre-permitted for electricity generation and component manufacturing Main objectives to facilitate private sector investment, reduce required government subsidies, and potentially optimize financing Individua
8、l solar plants (CSP, CPV and PV), optimally-sized to achieve economies and efficiencies of scale, can be constructed in a clustered fashion and on a predictable timeline, sharing common transmission, water supply and other site infrastructure One or more blocks of land are designated as a concentrat
9、ed zone for solar development Minimizes the environmental and social impacts of development Provides targeted economic development and employment opportunities and growth for specific locales or regions Manufacturers of components may find it attractive to build capacity to manufacture locally with
10、large-scale demand and a supportive environment Solar Park can also serve as a technology hub,7,Power Block,CSP 2,Other Generation,CSP 1,CSP 3,Water,Common CSP Infrastructure,Generation,Generation,Common Transmission,Balance of Plant,Land,Potential for LCOE Reduction Today,8,All calculations are bas
11、ed on CCI experience in other regions and may vary for China. Based on infrastructure cost of 15-20% of total capex. Length of transmission line a significant driver of cost saving. Range across various financing scenarios.,Using todays technology, LCOE can be reduced at least 30% through advantages
12、 to CSP such as the Solar Park model, hybridization and storage Other key drivers of LCOE reduction, such as optimized financing, reduced permitting costs and local component manufacturing, are more difficult to quantify and will vary case-by-case, but should also be considered,INDICATIVE COST REDUC
13、TION THROUGH CSP(1),4-6% Reduction,Additional 20-25% Reduction(2),Additional +20% Reduction(3),LCOE,Forecast Reduction in LCOE of CSP,9,CSP is expected to undergo similar reductions in LCOE as PV experienced in the last few years By 2025, the LCOE could be approximately half of what it is today,LCOE
14、,10-20% Reduction,Economies of Scale and Deployment of New Technology,Economies of Scale and Tech Improvements,Cost and Efficiency Improvements,25-40% Reduction,35-45% Reduction,CCI Experience India,CCI, in partnership with The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI), submitted a prefeasibility study
15、on the deployment of utility-scale solar power to the Government of India in 2009. CCI and TERI subsequently entered into MoUs with the States of Gujarat and Rajasthan in September 2009 and January 2010, respectively, to analyze the feasibility of planning and developing Solar Parks in each state CC
16、I and TERI introduced the concept of Solar Parks to Rajasthan and Gujarat; both States are in the process of implementing such Solar Parks for the deployment of large-scale generation projects as well as manufacturing and research and development Partnered with the ADB to begin knowledge transfer on
17、 solar to Indian public sector and commercial banks Developed financing framework in collaboration with the ADB that could help to bring significant capital at more attractive terms to India Currently working with the rating agency CRISIL, the Standard & Poors Indian affiliate, to examine the potent
18、ial for a debt capital markets product,10,CCI Experience Australia, Morocco and South Africa,Australia CCI is advising the Federal Government on its AUS$1.5 billion Solar Flagships program and how the program can be used to create a viable solar generation sector. CCI also undertook a Feasibility St
19、udy with the Queensland Government, which confirmed that a Solar Park could assist economic viability of projects through shared infrastructure costs and streamlined approvals processesMorocco CCI is working with the Moroccan Agency for Solar Energy (MASEN) to prepare a roadmap for the export of sol
20、ar power to Europe. CCI is also assisting MASEN with the preparation of a financing framework for its 500 MW Ouarzazate project, which aims to be operational by 2015South Africa CCI partnered with the South African Department of Energy to prepare a pre-feasibility study for the development of a Sola
21、r Park in the Northern Cape Province. The study concluded that solar power can be deployed in the Northern Cape in large quantities over the next decade at costs that become competitive with new coal-fired power The South African Cabinet approved the undertaking of a full-scale feasibility analysis,
22、 which is currently underway, as well as the organization of a Solar Park Conference, which took place in October 2010, to introduce the project to relevant stakeholders It is expected that the South African government will launch a Solar Park towards the end of 2011,11,Things to Consider in Plannin
23、g Commercial Deployment of CSP,13,Solar Resource Assessment (Mitigating uncertainty) Definition and Design of Contracts (e.g. EPC, O&M and PPA) Operator Model Public Private Partnership (PPP) BOT / BOOT / BOO/ BTO Models Impact on Financial Return and LCOE Funding Options Risk Assessment,Things to C
24、onsider in Planning Commercial Deployment of CSP,14,Project Bankability,Key Financial Structuring Drivers for Optimal Development,Financing cost/availability will be in direct proportion to perceived risk Increased finance costs will be reflected in cost of power produced,Increasing cost of finance,15,Key Technical Drivers for Optimal Development,16,
