1、FE BR UAR Y 2 3 RDMAR C H 1S T 2 0 19T he fr acturing of tw o-part y politic sH at red in Franc eT he s ly appeal of pri v ate equ it yHo w to sta y s ane on a t rip to Mar sCan pandas fly?T h e str u g g le to ref o rm C h in a s eco n o m y每日免费获取报告1、每日微信群内分享7+最新重磅报告；2、每日分享当日华尔街日报、金融时报；3、每周分享经济学人4、
2、行研报告均为公开版，权利归原作者所有，起点财经仅分发做内部学习。扫一扫二维码关注公号回复：研究报告加入“起点财经”微信群。 T he E conomist F ebruary 2 3r d 2 01 9 5C ontent s continues o v er leaf1C ontent sT he w or ld this w eek8 A round-up of politicaland business newsL eader s13 China s econom yCan pandas fly?14 British politicsSplitting image14 T rump s
3、emergencyImperial purple15 Business and climateHot, unbothered16 Te aching in EnglishBabel is betterL etter s18 On Huawei, G aelic, light,Ir an, doctors , workBriefing21 OpioidsThe de ath curveBri tain25 P olitical re alignments26 Honda s departure27 Britain and China28 T rade unions and the law28 D
4、eclining UN influenc e29 Organised crime30 Bagehot John McDonnellEu ro p e31 Hatred in F ranc e32 Business risk in R ussia34 German y s fe ar of China35 V atican scandals35 Denmark s pig w all36 Charlemagne Saarland ssecretsUni ted States37 Donald T rump s w all38 B ernie runs again39 Rahm Emanuel40
5、 Snooping on social media41 The reviv al of Haw aiian42 Le xington Diversity andits discontentsT he Americas43 Br azilian pensions44 Tweeting in Cuba44 T rude au s tr a v ails45 B ello V enezuela andT rumpEss a y: C hina s econom y47 A giant microcosm49 C onsumption andinequality50 The mark et and t
6、he state51 Global challengesMiddle E ast its share ofoutput has stagnated, and firms must establish party c ells whichthen may ha ve a say over vital hiring and in vestment decisions .R egulators meddle in the stockmark et, critical analysis issuppressed and, sinc e a botched currency dev aluation i
7、n 20 15,capital flows are tightly polic ed. Mr Xi has ignored Deng Xiao-ping s advic e to “hide your capabilities and bide your time” ,launching the “Made in China 2025” plan, an attempt to use statedirection to dominate high-tech industries . This has alarmedthe rest of the world, though it has yet
8、 to produc e results .Mak e no mistak e, Mr Xi s approach can continue for sometime . Whenever the econom y slows , stimulus is injected. In Jan-uary banks e xtended $4 77bn of loans , a new record. But structur-al shifts are working against China. The working -age populationis shrinking . In vestme
9、nt is a swollen 44% of gdp . As resourc esare suck ed up by w asteful projects and inecient state firms ,productivity growth has slowed. Now that debt has surged, inter-est payments will amount to ne arly three-quarters of new loans .The backlash abroad risks becoming yet another dr ag . As bar-rier
10、s to tr ade rise , China cannot rely on the rest of the world forgrowth. Its share of world e xports will struggle to rise above to-day s 13%. Its biggest and most sophisticated firms , such as Hua-wei, are viewed with suspicion in W estern mark ets (see Businesssection). Mr Xi promised a “ gre at r
11、ejuvenation” but what beck-ons is lower growth, more debt and technological isolation. China s le aders ha ve underestimated the frustr ations behindthe tr ade w ar . They ha ve assumed that America could be placatedwith gimmicks to cut the tr ade deficit, and that the row will endwhen Mr T rump le
12、a ves the Ov al Oc e. In fact American negotia-tors , with the support of C ongress and the business establish-ment, ha ve demanded deep changes to China s econom y. W est-ern opposition to China s model will outlast Mr T rump .To de al with hostility abroad and we akness at home , Mr Xishould start
13、 by limiting the state s role in allocating capital.Banks and financial mark ets must oper ate freely . F ailing statefirms should go bust. Sa vers must be permitted to in vest abroad,so that asset pric es reflect re ality , not financialrepression. If money flows to where it is produc-tive , the ch
14、arge that the econom y is unfairlyrigged will be harder to sustain and the build-upof bad debts will slow .Mr Xi also needs to temper China s industrialpolicy . It is too much to imagine that it will pri-v atise its 150,000 state firms . But it should copySingapore , where a body called T emasek hol
15、dsshares in state firms , giving them autonom y while requiring thatthey oper ate as eciently as the priv ate sector . Spending on in-dustrial policy should shift aw ay from gr andiose schemes suchas Made in China 2025 tow ards funding basic rese arch.Lastly , China must protect the rights of foreig
16、n firms . W ithinChina that me ans giving foreigners full control of subsidiaries ,including over their technological secrets . B eyond its borders itme ans respecting intellectual property , which will be in China sinterest as its firms grow more sophisticated.Given China s poor record, America wil
17、l need room to re-spond through taris or arbitr ation if China does not meet itscommitments . But America should also rew ard good beha viour .If Chinese firms can use gre ater tr ansparency to persuade it thatthey are oper ating on commercial principles , they should betre ated lik e businesses fro
18、m an y other country .Today , these reforms seem a distant prospect. But they wereac c epted wisdom among China s technocr ats a decade ago . Theyare also popular at home . C orpor ate bosses and senior ocialssay that they w ant American pressure to get through to Mr Xi in aw ay they cannot. U nder
19、him, China is becoming tr apped in a badcycle of sluggish growth, debt, state control and hostility abroad.A more economically liber al China would end up richer andmak e fewer enemies . It is time for Mr Xi to change course .7Can pandas fly?If Xi Jinping reforms the econom y, he could both calm the
20、 tr ade w ar and mak e China richerL eader s14 L eader s T he E conomist F ebruary 2 3r d 2 01 91In the pas t few ye ars man y of the mp s in Britain s main partiesha ve grown incre asingly unhappy . One re ason Bre xit hasproved trick y is that the party divide does not map onto viewsabout Europe .
21、 This week 11 moder ate mp s , eight Labour and threeC onserv ative , decided that they had had enoughand more mayjoin them. Given that P arliament se ats 650 mp s , their resignationto cre ate a new Independent Group might seem a minor tremor .But it matters: as a verdict on Labour s le ader , Jere
22、m y C orbyn; asanother complication in resolving Bre xit; and as a w arning of ane arthquak e that could yet reshape Britain s two-party system.One of the eight Labour mp s , Luciana B erger , is Jewish. Shehas been subjected to unrelenting racist attacks from within theparty . Mr C orbyn s feeble r
23、esponsehe has not met Ms B ergersinc e 20 17has led man y of his mp s to concludethat Labour has surrendered to anti-Semitism.This week even the deputy le ader , Tom W atson,lamented that he sometimes no longer recog-nised his own party . The resigning mp s are right.Mr C orbyn has failed a test of
24、le adership andshown that he cannot tell right from wrong .The mass resignations also underline howfar Bre xit now trumps party loy alties . The Le a ve-R emain divide identifies voters and mp s more than the old left-right one does . The thre at of more resignations will strengthenthe hand of Bre x
25、it moder ates who ha ve not left. Mr C orbyn willbe under pressure to show that the option of a second referen-dum, which is popular in his party , is genuine and not a me an-ingless ploy , as some suspect. To pacify rebellious C onserv a-tives , including some in her cabinet, Theresa May , the prim
26、eminister , will be under renewed pressure to promise she will notle a ve the Europe an U nion on March 29th without a de al.The hardest question is whether this week s resignations willle ad to a re alignment. The mp s ha ve only just started on thatjourney (see Britain section). Most alre ady fac
27、ed a high risk of de-selection by their party . They ha ve not yet formed a new party oftheir own or developed a progr amme . They are backbencherswith mostly limited ministerial e xperienc e. Moreover , a hugeobstacle stands in the w ay . Britain s brutal first-past-the-postelector al system protec
28、ts incumbent parties and cre ates dicul-ties for new ones . That is wh y the system has endured for so long .Yet the new group has a chanc e of pulling o something spec-tacular . Some in Labour fac e the contr adiction of striving to winpower when they ha ve concluded that their le ader is unfit to
29、beprime minister . Mrs May has said that she will not le ad the C on-serv atives into the ne xt election. W ere she to be suc c eeded by ahardline Bre xiteer , tensions within the Tories could become un-be ar able . Despite the we akness of today s Liber al Democr ats , stillsuering after coalition
30、with Da vid Cameron s Tories , some pollssuggest that a new c entrist party could attr actman y votes from those disenchanted with bothmain parties drift to the e xtremes .If it is not to lose momentum, the Indepen-dent Group has to move fast. It not only needsmore defections , but must also work wi
31、th otherparties , including the Scottish and W elsh na-tionalists as well as the Lib Dems and Greens . Itmust cohere around a strong message , most ob-viously its opposition to a no-de al Bre xit and its call for a secondreferendum. And it will need to unite behind one le ader . Thelik eliest candid
32、ate just now is Chuka U munna, the mp forStre atham, who onc e made a bid to become Labour le ader .R e alignments are rare in British politics , but they do happen.Labour displac ed the Liber als in the 1920s , the Scottish national-ists overwhelmed Labour in Scotland in 20 15 and the uk Inde-pende
33、nc e P arty secured and won a Bre xit referendum. Thisweek s rebellion could yet subsidelik e the Social Democr aticP arty (sdp ), formed by four former Labour mp s i n 19 81. T h e sdpmerged with the Liber als , but not before galv anising Labourmoder ates to reform their party . If the Independent
34、 Group man-aged nothing more , it would still count as a suc c ess . 7Splitting imageThe resignation of a few mp s from their parties may not sound lik e much, but it could disrupt Britain s politicsBritish politicsSince the day he became president, Donald T rump has tr am-pled political norms . He
35、has cosied up to foreign dictatorswhile tr aducing his own ocials . He has demanded that the Jus-tic e Department in vestigate his adversaries and mused aboutpardoning himself . He lies so frequently that it seems lik e a tic.In declaring a spurious state of emergency on America s south-ern border ,
36、 has he at last gone too far and provok ed a crisis?The president s action on F ebruary 15th w as born of frustr a-tion and fe ar for his political future . Ha ving repe atedly promisedto build a w all on the Me xican border , he had to do it. U nsurpris-ingly , his original plan of getting Me xico
37、to pay failed. MrT rump s attempts to cajole C ongress to provide the money , in-cluding by shutting down the government, fared no better .B o x ed in by his own foolish promises and ineptitude , he has fall-en back on the ruse of declaring an emergency and gr abbingwhat money he can from the milita
38、ry budget. As a lawsuit alre ady filed by 16 states points out, there is noemergency on the southern border in an y normal sense . Lastye ar 400,000 people were apprehended there , down from 1.6min 2000. Me an while the border forc e has doubled in size . Drugseizures are down, mostly because less m
39、ari juana is coming in. America does fac e genuine emergencies . P erhaps the gre atest Imperial purpleIt is no good complaining about how Donald T rump abuses his powers . Y ou ha ve to curtail themTrump s emer gencyT he E conomist F ebruary 2 3r d 2 01 9 L eader s 1512 of these is the terrible opi
40、oid epidemic that kills some 50,000people every ye ar and will continue to do so for ye ars to come(see Briefing). Mr T rump plans to spend just $ 1bn over two ye arssa ving some of these lives . Devoting $8bn to putting more barri-ers in the Sonor an Desert is the wrong priority . Whether Mr T rump
41、 is overre aching his authority , and in whatw ays , is a legal question. The courts may rule that the business ofdefining what is an emergency belongs to the e x ecutive . B etter ,then, to assume the re al problem is not so much that the presi-dent is exc eeding his powers as that those powers are
42、 excessive .This is largely C ongress s fault, and it is for C ongress to fix. F or decades , presidents both R epublican and Democr aticha ve asserted gre ater powers for themselves , and ha ve oftenbeen allowed to get aw ay with it. Ha ving declared an open-endedw ar on terror , George W . Bush se
43、t up military commissions andauthorised w arr antless wiretaps . Bar ack Obama in vented newcategories of illegal immigr ant, which he then protected. Everypresident sinc e Ger ald F ord has declared at le ast one nationalemergency . Man y are no longer emergencies , yet they linger ,along with some
44、 of the powers they brought with them. Ne arly40 ye ars after Ir anian revolutionaries took Americans hostage ,Jimm y Carter s emergency declar ation is still in forc e. C ongress has also passed laws incre asing the power of the e x-ecutive , which Mr T rump is now e xploiting . One of the three po
45、tsof money he intends to r aid to pay for his w all is the Defenc e De-partment s anti-drug fund. In 20 16 C ongress passed a bill that ap-pe ars to give him the power to do just that. More cash will comefrom a T re asury asset-forfeiture fund, which can also be tappede asily . Only Mr T rump s thir
46、d target, the military constructionbudget, requires a declar ation of emergency . He has a goodchanc e of getting his w ay there , too . His emergency powers arebroad, and he could veto a motion of disapprov al which C on-gress is due to vote on (see U nited States section). Mr T rump has made an ap
47、pallingly sloppy case for his emer-gency declar ation. He mused publicly for weeks about whetherto issue it, as though he were still a re ality- tv star building ten-sion. He cannot even stick to the line that there is an emergency .“I didnt need to do this ,” he e xplained on F ebruary 15th. But, h
48、esaid, he w ants to get the w all built quickly . It is provocativeenough when a president asserts new powers . It is more so whenhe admits that he is doing so because it is con venient. Such shamelessness is clarifying, however . Just as MrT rump s refusal to rele ase his tax returns showed that th
49、e tr adi-tion of presidential candidates doing so w as only a tr adition, justas his failure to divest himself of his business interests demon-str ated that a president cannot be forc ed into it, his cynical dec-lar ation of an emergency reve als how v ague and e xpansive thatpower is . It would be best if Mr T rump acted nobly . But a nationfounded on law should know not to e xpect that of its le aders . C ongress should tak e stock of its defenc es against bad le ader-ship and strengthen them, as in the 1970s after Richard Nix on sres
