1、 For office use only T1 _ T2 _ T3 _ T4 _ Team Control Number 55069 Problem Chosen A For office use only F1 _ F2 _ F3 _ F4 _ 2017 MCM/ICM Summary Sheet The Rehabilitation of the Kariba Dam Recently, the Institute of Risk Management of South Africa has just warned that the Kariba dam is in desperate n
2、eed of rehabilitation, otherwise the whole dam would collapse, putting 3.5 million people at risk. Aimed to look for the best strategy with the three options listed to maintain the dam, we employ AHP model to filter factors and determine two most influential criteria, including potential costs and b
3、enefits. With the weight of each criterion worked out, our model demonstrates that option 3 is the optimal choice. According to our choice, we are required to offer the recommendation as to the number and placement of the new dams. Regarding it as a set covering problem, we develop a multi-objective
4、 optimization model to minimize the number of smaller dams while improving the water resources management capacity. Applying TOPSIS evaluation method to get the demand of the electricity and water, we solve this problem with genetic algorithm and get an approximate optimal solution with 12 smaller d
5、ams and determine the location of them. Taking the strategy for modulating the water flow into account, we construct a joint operation of dam system to simulate the relationship among the smaller dams with genetic algorithm approach. We define four kinds of year based on the Karibas climate data of
6、climate, namely, normal flow year, low flow year, high flow year and differential year. Finally, these statistics could help us simulate the water flow of each month in one year, then we obtain the water resources planning and modulating strategy. The sensitivity analysis of our model has pointed ou
7、t that small alteration in our constraints (including removing an important city of the countries and changing the measurement of the economic development index etc.) affects the location of some of our dams slightly while the number of dams remains the same. Also we find that the output coefficient
8、 is not an important factor for joint operation of the dam system, for the reason that the discharge index and the capacity index would not change a lot with the output coefficient changing. Team # 55069 Page 2 of 2 Contents 1 Overview . 1 1.1 Background . 1 1.2 Restatement of the Problem . 1 1.3 Li
9、terature Review . 2 2 Assumptions and Justifications 2 3 Notation 3 4 Model Overview 4 5 Model Theory. 5 5.1 Determination of the Number and Location of the Dams 5 5.2 Joint operation of dam system model . 9 6 Model Implementation and Results 11 6.1 The Number and Location 11 6.2 The Strategy of Mod
10、ulating Water Flow . 14 7 Sensitivity Analysis . 15 7.1 The Model of Determination of the Number and Location . 15 7.2 The Model of Modulating Water Flow . 17 8 Further discussion 17 9 Strengths and Weaknesses 18 9.1 Strengths . 18 9.2 Weaknesses 19 10 Conclusion 19 11 The Evaluation of Three Option
11、s . 20 11.1 Establish a Hierarchical Model . 20 11.2 Analysis and Results . 21 Team # 55069 Page 1 of 28 1 Overview 1.1 Background A Zambezi River Authority conference was held in March 2014, engineers warned that the foundations of the dam had weakened and there was a possibility of dam failure unl
12、ess repairs were made. On 3 October 2014 the BBC reported that “The Kariba Dam is in a dangerous state. Opened in 1959, it was built on a seemingly solid bed of basalt. However, in the past 50 years, the torrents from the spillway have eroded that bedrock, carving a vast crater that has undercut the
13、 dams foundations, engineers are now warning that without urgent repairs, the whole dam will collapse. If that happened, a tsunami-like wall of water would rip through the Zambezi valley, reaching the Mozambique border within eight hours. The torrent would overwhelm Mozambiques Cahora Bassa Dam and
14、knock out 40% of southern Africas hydroelectric capacity. Along with the devastation of wildlife in the valley, the Zambezi River Authority estimates that the live of 3.5 million people are at risk.” On February 2015, Engineers have started on a R3.3bn rescue marathon to prevent the “catastrophic fa
15、ilure” of the Kariba Dam. According to a World Bank special report on the beleaguered structure-one of the biggest man-made dams in the world-a potential wall collapse threatens the lives of about 3-million people living on the Zambezi River floodplain between the hydro scheme on the Zambia-Zimbabwe
16、 border and the Mozambique coast. 1 1.2 Restatement of the Problem We are required to provide an overview of potential costs and benefits with the three options already listed. Then we need to establish a model to determine the number and placement of the new dams when removing the Kariba dam along
17、the Zambezi River. The same overall water management capabilities are also needed. In addition, we should consider emergency water flow situations and restrictions regarding the locations and time, so that we could give out the strategy for modulating the water flow through our new multiple dam syst
18、em. In order to solve those problems, we will proceed as follows: Build a model to determine the number and location of the multiple dams. Give the corresponding strategy of modulating water flow in different conditions. In our model, we first establish a multi-objective model and use genetic algori
19、thm determine the number and location of the multiple dams. There are two goals improving the water resources management capacity and reducing the cost. Besides, we add some constraints such as water balance, water level, safety and water protection. We choose twenty suitable dam sites and employ th
20、e genetic algorithm to solve the optimal problem to determine the number and the location. After determining the number and location of the dams, we construct our joint operation of dam Team # 55069 Page 2 of 28 system model and employ the genetic algorithm to solve the problem based on the thought
21、of dynamic programming. According to the Karibas climate data for about 30 years, we abstract normal flow year, low flow year, high flow year and differential year. We use them to work out the water resources planning and scheduling strategy. The construction of the discharge index and the capacity
22、index benefits an analysis and evaluation for joint operation of the dam systems performance in different month and year. 1.3 Literature Review Dating back to 2004, the United States removed 72 dams in total, which created a historical record. Therefore, it is high time for us to focus on the constr
23、uction of dams concerning their number and placement. Plenty of researchers have already made a number of notable papers to address these problems Alfer Weber (1909) first proposed a framework for location problem, which is an allocation question with respect to space resource. Among the three class
24、ical location model, set covering problem is a significant branch of siting issues. They explored a multi-objective location model to tackle problems with siting optimal points. In their model, maximizing coverage rate in order to satisfy every places need is the target function, the concentric poin
25、t and the capacity restrictions are constraint conditions. Thus, they could convert the optimization problem to the mixed integer linear programming question. After the set covering model was established, we can optimize our choice of siting the dams. Then several scientists were devoted to building
26、 an optimal operation model to provide a reasonable balance between safety and balance. They begin to figure out how the multiple dam system would benefit or affect each other within its system. Masse(1940) first illustrated the concept of it; their main computing method was to optimize water modula
27、ting strategy during dispatching period. Further studies are carried out about different methods to investigate the optimal operation model, including dynamic programming algorithm and neural network algorithm based on improved computer technique. Also, there is much theoretical analysis about locat
28、ion problem since 1990. John Current and Morton OKelly(1992) suggested using a modified version of the set covering location model, which still didnt take the reality into account. 2 Assumptions and Justifications To simplify our problems, we make the following basic assumptions, each of which is pr
29、operly justified. The dam system is built downstream in the valley of the Kariba Dam. Because its more convenient to build and also with less cost, which can be easily implemented. The cost of the dam is mostly the same. Owing to the fact that the length of the canyon is not large（ 24km） ,geological
30、 conditions and climate conditions are mostly the same. Team # 55069 Page 3 of 28 Each dams water supply is mostly the same. Taking into account of safe operation of the entire multi-dam system, we should make the burden of each dam to be the same as much as possible. The water quality of the dam sy
31、stem is the average of the water quality between the two reservoirs. The river is flowing, so the water quality is mostly similar. Water of the dams downstream only comes from dams upstream and natural precipitation. According to Google Maps, there are no tributaries near the canyon. Also with the p
32、rinciple of conservation of water, the formula should be maintained. 3 Notation Abbreviation Description 12, mY y y y The set of cities 12= , , nX x x x The set of dams ( , )ind y X The distance from the thi city to the nearest smaller dam iEle The electricity demand of thi city iWat The water deman
33、d of thi city (,)Wti The discharge amount of the thi dam at the end of period t, (,)Zti The total amount of water released during period t (,)Tti The amount of natural water in period t ijV The volume in the thj period of thethi dam ijQ The inflow in the thj period of the thi dam Team # 55069 Page 4
34、 of 28 ijq The discharge volume in the thj period of thethi dam ijQJ The runoff volume between thethi dam and the( 1)thi dam ijS The actual water supplythi dam in the thj period ijD The planned water supply of the thi dam in the thj period ijH The hydraulic head of thi dam in the thj period iK The f
35、ore-voltage factor of the thi dam t The discharge flow indicators in the tht period t The storage capacity indicators in the tht period 4 Model Overview To provide a detailed analysis of the option (3)-removing the Kariba dam and newly building ten to twenty smaller dams. We need to determine the nu
36、mber and location of the multiple dams first. And on that basis we must establish a model to modulate the water flow through the multiple dam system to adapt to different situations. A reasonable balance between safety and cost of our strategy is also needed. Our first model allows us to determine t
37、he number and the location of the multiple dams. We regard the optimal problem as a set covering problem and establish a multi-objective model to solve the problem. There are two goals, namely improving water resources management capacity and reducing the cost. And there are also some constraints in
38、cluding water balance, water level, safety, water resources protection and number constraints. On the account that the optimal problem is difficult to solve in polynomial time, so we use genetic algorithm to get the solution. After determining the numbers and the location, we establish a joint opera
39、tion of dam system model to gain a strategy about modulating water flow in different condition. Though its also a multi-objective problem, it is different from the previous model. We use the maximization of economic and social benefits as the objective and set some constraints, such as water balance
40、, reservoir capacity and discharge flow constraints. We use genetic algorithm to get the Team # 55069 Page 5 of 28 modulating strategy in different conditions. In conclusion, we use programming and heuristic algorithm to solve the problem of building dams and the modulating strategy. Its relatively
41、easy to achieve and it has a significant guidance for the reality. 5 Model Theory 5.1 Determination of the Number and Location of the Dams 5.1.1 Establishment of the model The construction of dams needs to consider many aspects, while at the same time it is subject to economic, social, environmental
42、 constraints and other factors. In order to obtain the proper number of dams and their location, we establish a multi-objective model. The Objective Improve Water Resources Management Capacity The purpose of building smaller dams instead of larger dams is to manage water resources better, mainly to
43、satisfy dwellers demand for the electricity consumption and water consumption (Including agricultural, industrial and domestic water) of the neighboring cities. Demand may vary between cities, but it is clear that for cities with greater demand, the dam should be built closer to them. so we get that
44、 1m in ( , )mi i ni Ele d y X1m in ( , )mi i ni Wat d y X Reduce the Cost On the basis of ensuring the water supply and power supply, we should minimize the cost of our plan. The whole cost consists of the removal of the Kariba dam and building new smaller dams. Since the cost of removal is fixed, s
45、o we only consider the variable cost(building cost), which is only related to the number of dams. So we should minimize the quantity of the smaller dams. minn The Constraints Water Balance ()( , ) ( 1 , ) ( , ) ( , )kiW t i W t i Z t k T t i Team # 55069 Page 6 of 28 (,)Wti ， (,)Zti and (,)Tti repre
46、sent the discharge amount of the thi dam at the end of period t, the total amount of water released during period t and the amount of natural water in period t respectively. ()i denotes the set of all higher dams of thi dam. If ()i is empty, the corresponding summation is zero.2 Water Level The wate
47、r level in the dam area should be kept between the dead water level and the limited water level in the flood season. Dead Water Level, namely the lowest water level that allows a reservoir to fall off under normal operating conditions. Flood limited water level is the requirements of control over fl
48、ood to limit reservoirs water storage. DWL WL FWL Safety The construction of multiple smaller dams is at least as safe as the original larger dams. The safety considerations for dam construction mainly include reducing the probability of dam failure, thereby reducing damage to dams downstream and enhancing resistance ability to extreme weather. sd BdSafety Safety sdSafety represents the safety of multiple dams system, while BdSafety denotes the safety of the existing Kariba dam. Water Resour
