1、For office use onlyT1T2T3T4Team Control Number45969Problem ChosenEFor office use onlyF1F2F3F42016MCM/ICMSummary SheetThe analysis of water carrying capacity in the futureExecutive SummaryWater resources carrying capacity means the ability to provide enough waterresources to support the sustainable d
2、evelopment of local social economy and e-cological environment. So it is chosen as a measure of the ability of a region toprovide clean water, which is calculated from the quantitative and qualitative an-gle. On basis of “economy-water quantity“ theory, the scale and degree of waterresources capacit
3、y are evaluated quantitatively. Then, after determining the evalu-ation index system, we analyze the coordination degree qualitatively based on themulti-objective linear weighting function method.The HaiHe River Basin is chosen as the object to explain why and how water isscarce in that region. By a
4、pplying foregoing models, the water resources carryingcapacity and coordination degree are calculated. We find that degree of carryingcapacity range from 65% to 70%, a moderately overloaded state, and coordinationdegree is 0.432, a number of common level. The results also show that the carryingcapac
5、ity decreases all the time while the coordination increases with time. Afteranalyzing the trend of amount of water, the utilization of water, population andpollution, we find it is the lack of technology and the increasing use of water thatlead to the water shortage situation.As for the prediction o
6、f carrying capacity in the future, on the one hand, thebasic indexes are predicted based on the national development plan and thus thecarrying capacity value can be gotten easily. On the other hand, based on the im-proved Grey GM (1,1) Markov model, the specific values of all classified indexesin th
7、e future are forecasted and the thus coordination degree can be obtained. By2030, water resources carrying capacity will reach 63%, a moderately overloadedstate, and coordination degree is 0.856, a number of very good level.Considering the factors leading to water shortage, water is supposed to betr
8、ansferred into HaiHe River Basin, which increases the amount of water supplied.Then, water is allocated reasonably utilizing multi-objective function model. Thebenefit of economy, society, ecology and environment are optimized so that theycan develop coordinately. The improved carrying capacity prov
9、es the correctnessof allocation.After water transfer, water resources carrying capacity will reach 88%, a slightlyoverloaded state, and coordination degree will be at a very good level by 2050. Thepredicted results show that the water demand in the future will not be substantiallyincreased.Thus we p
10、redict the water shortages will be eased in the future.Contents1 Introduction 11.1 Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.2 Our Work . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Assumption 23 Symbol Desc
11、ription 24 Water resources carrying capacity measuring the ability to provide clean water 24.1 The quantitative calculation of water resources carrying capacity . . . . . . . . . 34.1.1 The selection of water resources carrying capacity basic indexes . . . . . 34.1.2 The specific calculation of basi
12、c indexes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44.2 The coordination of water resources carrying indexes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54.3 The reason why and how water is scarce in HaiHe River Basin . . . . . . . . . . . 75 The prediction of water situation 105.1 Prediction of water resources
13、carrying capacity based on the national plan . . . . 105.2 Prediction of indexes based on the based on Improved Grey Markov Model . . . 115.3 Multi-objective programming model used for the intervention plan . . . . . . . . 155.3.1 The intervention based on water transfer . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
14、. . . . . 155.3.2 The establishment of multi-objective programming model . . . . . . . . . 155.4 The water situation in the future with intervention plan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176 Strength and weakness 196.1 Strength . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
15、 . . . . 196.2 Weakness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197 Model Extension 198 Error/Sensitivity Analysis 19References 20Team # 45969 Page 1 of 201 Introduction1.1 BackgroundThere are many reasons why the water in the world will be run out. Accord
16、ing to the UnitNations, 1.6 billion people (one quarter of the worlds population) experience water scarcity.Water use has been growing at twice the rate of population over the last century. Humansrequire water resources for industrial, agricultural, and residential purposes. There are twoprimary cau
17、ses for water scarcity: physical scarcity and economic scarcity. Physical scarcity iswhere there is inadequate water in a region to meet demand. Economic scarcity is where waterexists but poor management and lack of infrastructure limits the availability of clean water.Some scientists see this water
18、 scarcity problem becoming exacerbated with climate change andpopulation increase while others think the water scarcity is the result of increasing rates ofpersonal consumption, or increasing rates of industrial consumption, or increasing pollutionwhich depletes the supply of fresh water.Is it possi
19、ble to gain fresh water provided to all? The supply of water must take into accountthe physical availability of water (e.g. natural water source, technological advances such asdesalination plants or rainwater harvesting techniques). Understanding water availability isan inherently interdisciplinary
20、problem. One must not only understand the environmentalconstraints on water supply, but also how social factors influence availability and distributionof clean water. For example, lack of adequate sanitation can cause a decrease in water quality.Human population increase also places increased burden
21、 on the water supply within a region.So, when analyzing the issues of water scarcity, the following types of questions should beconsidered. How have humans historically exacerbated or alleviated water scarcities? Whatare the geological, topographical, and ecological reasons for water scarcity, and h
22、ow can we ac-curately predict future water availability? What is the potential for new or alternate sourcesof water (For example, desalinization plants, water harvesting techniques or undiscoveredaquifers)? What are the demographic and health related problems tied to water scarcity? Byconsidering al
23、l the factors in to consideration, some plans can be made so as to improve thewater situation.1.2 Our WorkDevelop the calculation method of water carrying capacity scale and water resourcescoordination degree to analyze the water resources carrying capacity more comprehen-sively.Choose HaiHe River B
24、asin as the water shortage region and explain why and how wateris scare in the region by analyzing the change of carrying capacity.Utilize the national plan to predict the carrying scale and the improved grey GM(1,1)Markov model to forecast the coordination degree in 15 years.Based on the national p
25、lan, predict the water transferred from other places. And use themulti-objective programming model to allocate water resources. Then discuss the impacton humans life using the change of some indexes.Based on the actual situation and the intervention, predict the situation and illustrate ifwater is a
26、vailable in the future.Team # 45969 Page 2 of 202 Assumption(1) The data collected are true and effective.(2) When analyzing the water resources carrying capacity, the water transferred from otherplaces is neglected.(3) The development of population, economy, society and environment are consistent t
27、o theplanned goal.(4) The climate in the region will not change greatly and there are no extreme weather andserious disease.(5) The Diversion Project from south to north is carried out as planned.3 Symbol DescriptionIn the section, we use some symbols for constructing the model as follows.Symbol Des
28、criptionCCWR Water resources capacityD The comprehensive value of coordination valueWS The amount of natural resources supplied.WD The domestic consumptionP1 The number of population supported by water resources.P.s:Other symbol instructions will be given in the text.4 Water resources carrying capac
29、ity measuring the ability to provideclean waterWater resources carrying capacity is the ability to provide enough water resources to sup-port the local social economy and ecological environment for the purpose of sustainable devel-opment in a certain period of present and future timeWater carrying c
30、apacity is used to measure the ability of a region providing clean water tomeet the needs of its population. The water carrying capacity takes space characteristic, timecharacteristic and bearing capacity into consideration. In addition, the sustainable use of watermay be different because of the di
31、fferent ability exploiting water, which will lead to the variedtime running out water. From the above analysis, we can see that, the ability offering water ofregions is consistent to water resources carrying capacity. Thus, it is chosen as the measure.In order to assess the regional water resources
32、carrying capacity accurately, we decide toanalyze the regional water resources carrying capacity from the quantitative and qualitativeaspects. The comprehensive utilization of water resource is analyzed from quantitative aspectwith basic index while the coordination ability of regional water resourc
33、es is from qualitativeaspect with classification indexes.Team # 45969 Page 3 of 204.1 The quantitative calculation of water resources carrying capacity4.1.1 The selection of water resources carrying capacity basic indexesThe quantitative calculation of basic indexes is one of the two parts in the an
34、alysis of wa-ter resources carrying capacity. The selection of base indexes should clearly and simply reflectthe bearing capacity of water resources on population, social economy and ecological environ-ment. The water resources carrying capacity basic index CCWR should be calculated withwater carryi
35、ng capacity index, population carrying index, social economy carrying index andecological environment carrying index.1Water capacity indexIw: the ratio of the amount of water available Ws to the amount ofwater demanded W0 , which indicates the satisfaction degree of the amount of water availablefor
36、the amount of water demanded. It is expressed as:Iw = Ws=WD (1)Population carrying index Ip : the ratio of the number of population P1 predicted basedon the present water resources supply ability to the present population quantity Ps , whichindicates the bearing level of water resource to population
37、 development. It is expressed as:Ip = P1=Ps (2)Social and economic carrying indexIGDP: the ratio of the number of GDPGDP predictedbased on the present water resources supply ability to the present GDP GDPs, which indicatesthe bearing extent of water resources to social and economic development. It c
38、an be expressedas:IGDP = GDP =GDPs (3)Ecological environment carrying index IE : the ratio of the amount of ecological environ-ment water needed WDE1 predicted based on the present water resources supply capacity tothe present amount of water demanded WDES, which indicates the bearing extent of wate
39、rresources to ecological environment. It can be expressed as:IE = WDE1=WDES (4)Water resources capacity CCWR: the weighting average of water bearing index Iw , thepopulation carrying capacity Ip, the social economic carrying index IGDP and the ecologicalenvironment bearing index IE . The weight valu
40、e can be determined according to the relativeimportance of the four subsystems. Here, for the convenience of calculation, the weight valueof the four indexes are the same. Therefore, CCWR is used to represent the comprehensivedegree of the water resources supporting population, social economy and th
41、e development ofecological environment, which is expressed as:CCWR = (Iw +Ip +IGDP +IE)=4 (5)The water resources carrying capacity is a significant measure of the ability of a region toprovide clean water to meet the needs of its population. For instance, CCWR = 80% meansthat 80 percent of the scale
42、 of the local population, social economy and ecological environmentcan be supported by the present water resources. By contrast,CCWR = 120% means 1.2 timesthe size of scale can be supported.Team # 45969 Page 4 of 204.1.2 The specific calculation of basic indexesThe four carrying indexes above can be
43、 quantitatively calculated as follow:For the water capacity index, the total amount of water supplied WS can be expressed as:WS = WSN +WSS +WSW +WSD (6)WhereWSN is the amount of natural resources supplied;WSS is the amount of sea water desalinated;WSW is the amount of waste water recycled; WSD is th
44、e amount of water transferred from outside.The total amount of water demanded can be expressed as:WD = WDP +WDA +WDI +WDE (7)Where WDP is the domestic consumption; WDA is the agricultural consumption; WDI is the indus-trial water consumption; WDE is the ecological environment water consumption.For t
45、he population carrying index, the number of population carried by the environmentcan be expressed as:P1 = (GDP1 +GDPS + (WS WDI)=qA)=(GDP=P + (qP qE)=qA) (8)Where GDP1 is the industrial GDP; GDPS is the service GDP; WS is the total amount watersupplied; WDI is the industrial water consumption; GDP i
46、s the total GDP, consisting of industrialGDP, agricultural GDP and service GDP; P is the total number of population; is the per capita waterconsumption; qP is the per capita water consumption of ecological environment; qA is agricultural waterquota.For the social economy carrying index GDP1 , the GD
47、P predicted can be expressed ascGDP1 = P1(GDP=P) (9)For the ecological environment carrying index, the amount of ecological environmentneeded water predicted can be expressed as:WDE1 = P1 qE (10)So by using the formula (1)-(10), we can calculate the value of CCWR that can be utilizedto evaluate the
48、ability of a region to provide water resources.In order to reflect the regional water resources carrying capacity level more accurately andobjectively, 5 kinds of bearing state are used to evaluate the carrying ability by referring to theinternational and national accreditation standards and nationa
49、l and local development plan.The five evaluation standards: grade I over exploited, grade II heavily exploited, grade IIImoderately exploited, grade IV slightly exploited and grade V bearable, which is showed inTablet 1.Therefore, the carrying capacity calculated can be not only used to illustrate the water re-sources state of the region, but can be also applied to express the specific carrying degree. It isan effective index to measure the ability of a region to provide clean water to meet the needs ofits population.Team # 45969 Page 5 of 20Table 1: The value of water shortage state4.2
