1、World Energy Outlook Special Report on Unconventional Gas Golden Rules for a Golden Age of GasGolden Rules for a Golden Age of Gas Golden Rules for a Golden Age of Gas World Energy Outlook Special Report on Unconventional Gas Natural gas is poised to enter a golden age, but this future hinges critic
2、ally on the successful development of the worlds vast unconventional gas resources. North American experience shows unconventional gas notably shale gas can be exploited economically. Many countries are lining up to emulate this success. But some governments are hesitant, or even actively opposed. T
3、hey are responding to public concerns that production might involve unacceptable environmental and social damage. This report, in the World Energy Outlook series, treats these aspirations and anxieties with equal seriousness. It features two new cases: a Golden Rules Case, in which the highest pract
4、icable standards are adopted, gaining industry a “social licence to operate”; and its counterpart, in which the tide turns against unconventional gas as constraints prove too difficult to overcome. The report: Describes the unconventional gas resource and what is involved in exploiting it. Identifie
5、s the key environmental and social risks and how they can be addressed. Suggests the Golden Rules necessary to realise the economic and energy security benefits while meeting public concerns. Spells out the implications of compliance with these rules for governments and industry, including on develo
6、pment costs. Assesses the impact of the two cases on global gas trade patterns and pricing, energy security and climate change. For more information, and the free download of this report, please visit: www.worldenergyoutlook.org WEO-2012 to be released 12 November 2012World Energy Outlook Special Re
7、port on Unconventional Gas Golden Rules for a Golden Age of Gas 001-02_pages de dbut.indd 1 14/05/2012 12:33:37INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The International Energy Agency (IEA), an autonomous agency, was established in November 1974. Its primary mandate was and is two-fold: to promote energy securit
8、y amongst its member countries through collective response to physical disruptions in oil supply, and provide authoritative research and analysis on ways to ensure reliable, affordable and clean energy for its 28 member countries and beyond. The IEA carries out a comprehensive programme of energy co
9、-operation among its member countries, each of which is obliged to hold oil stocks equivalent to 90 days of its net imports. The Agencys aims include the following objectives: Secure member countries access to reliable and ample supplies of all forms of energy; in particular, through maintaining eff
10、ective emergency response capabilities in case of oil supply disruptions. Promote sustainable energy policies that spur economic growth and environmental protection in a global context particularly in terms of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions that contribute to climate change. Improve transparency
11、of international markets through collection and analysis of energy data. Support global collaboration on energy technology to secure future energy supplies and mitigate their environmental impact, including through improved energy ef ciency and development and deployment of low-carbon technologies.
12、Find solutions to global energy challenges through engagement and dialogue with non-member countries, industry, international organisations and other stakeholders. IEA member countries:AustraliaAustria BelgiumCanada Czech Republic Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Japan Kor
13、ea (Republic of) Luxembourg Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom United States The European Commission also participates in the work of the IEA. Please note that this publication is subject to speci c restrictions that limit it
14、s use and distribution. The terms and conditions are available online at www.iea.org/about/copyright.asp OECD/IEA, 2012 International Energy Agency 9 rue de la Fdration75739 Paris Cedex 15, France www.iea.orgAcknowledgements 3 Acknowledgements This report was prepared by the Office of the Chief Econ
15、omist (OCE) of the International Energy Agency. It was designed and directed by Fatih Birol, Chief Economist of the IEA. The analysis was co-ordinated by Christian Besson and Tim Gould. Principal contributors to this report were Marco Baroni, Laura Cozzi, Ian Cronshaw, Capella Festa, Matthew Frank,
16、Timur Gl, Pawe Olejarnik, David Wilkinson and Peter Wood. Other contributors included Amos Bromhead, Dafydd Elis, Timur Topalgoekceli and Akira Yanagisawa. Sandra Mooney provided essential support. Robert Priddle carried editorial responsibility. The report benefited from valuable comments and feedb
17、ack from other experts within the IEA, including Bo Diczfalusy, Didier Houssin and Laszlo Varro. The Communication and Information Office was instrumental in bringing the book to completion. Thanks also go to Debra Justus for proofreading the text. A high-level workshop organised by the IEA and host
18、ed by the Polish Ministry of Economy and co-hosted by the Mexican Ministry of Energy was held on 7 March 2012 in Warsaw to gather essential input to this study. The workshop participants have contributed valuable new insights, feedback and data for this analysis. More details may be found at www.wor
19、ldenergyoutlook.org/aboutweo/workshops/. Many experts from outside the IEA provided input, commented on the underlying analytical work and reviewed the report. Their comments and suggestions were of great value. They include: Saleh Abdurrahman National Energy Council of Indonesia Marco Arcelli Enel
20、Tristan Aspray ExxonMobil Kamel Bennaceur Schlumberger Roberto Bocca World Economic Forum Clay Bretches National Petroleum Council, United States John Broderick University of Manchester Mark Brownstein Environmental Defense Fund, United States Carey Bylin Environmental Protection Agency, United Stat
21、es Robert Cekuta Department of State, United States Xavier Chen BP , China Armond Cohen Clean Air Task Force, United States John Corben Schlumberger Bruno Courme Total Randall Cox Queensland Water Commission, Australia 003-06_Acknowledgements.indd 3 14/05/2012 12:36:06 OECD/IEA, 20124 World Energy O
22、utlook | Special Report John Deutch Massachusetts Institute of Technology, United States Martin Diaper Environment Agency, United Kingdom Carmine Difiglio Department of Energy, United States Enrique Domnguez National Hydrocarbons Commission, Mexico Amy Emmert American Petroleum Institute John Foran
23、Natural Resources Canada Mario Gabriel Ministry of Energy, Mexico David Goldwyn Goldwyn Global Strategies Sila Guiance Department of Energy and Climate Change, United Kingdom John Hanger Eckert Seamans Cherin & Mellott Gregory Hild Chevron Cal Hill Energy Resources Conservation Board, Canada Masazum
24、i Hirono The Japan Gas Association Kyel Hodenfield Schlumberger Anil Jain Government of Madhya Pradesh , India Ben Jarvis Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism, Australia Jostein Dahl Karlsen Ministry of Petroleum and Energy, Norway Izabela Kielichowska GE Energy Ken Koyama The Institute of En
25、ergy Economics, Japan Alan Krupnick Resources for the Future, United States Xiaoli Liu Energy Research Institute, China Craig Mackenzie Scottish Widows Investment Partnership Tatiana Mitrova Skolkovo Energy Centre, Russian Klaus Mohn Statoil Trevor Morgan Menecon Consulting Ed Morse CitiGroup Aldo N
26、apolitano Eni, Poland Alexander Ochs World Watch Institute Niall OShea The Co-operative Asset Management Idelso Piazza Petrobras Roberto Pot Edison Wiesaw Prugar Orlen Upstream Michael Schuetz European Commission Directorate-General for Energy Scott Sherman Hess Corporation Christopher Smith Departm
27、ent of Energy, United States Jonathan Stern Oxford Institute for Energy Studies 003-06_Acknowledgements.indd 4 14/05/2012 12:36:06 OECD/IEA, 2012Acknowledgements 5 2 1 3 4 5 6 Magorzata Szymaska Ministry of Economy, Poland Wim Thomas Shell Susan Tierney Analysis Group Mihai Tomescu European Commissi
28、on Directorate-General for Environment No van Hulst Energy Academy Europe, The Netherlands Adnan Vatansever Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, United States Frank Verrastro Center for Strategic and International Studies, United States Jay Wagner Plexus Energy Rick Wilkinson Australian Petro
29、leum Production & Exploration Association Piotr Woniak Ministry of Environment, Poland Mel Ydreos International Gas Union The individuals and organisations that contributed to this study are not responsible for any opinions or judgements contained in this study. All errors and omissions are solely t
30、he responsibility of the IEA. Comments and questions are welcome and should be addressed to: Dr. Fatih Birol Chief Economist Director, Office of the Chief Economist International Energy Agency 9, rue de la Fdration 75739 Paris Cedex 15 France Telephone: (33-1) 4057 6670 Fax: (33-1) 4057 6509 Email:
31、weoiea.org More information about the World Energy Outlook is available at www.worldenergyoutlook.org. This publication has been produced under the authority of the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of individu
32、al IEA member countries. 003-06_Acknowledgements.indd 5 14/05/2012 12:36:06 OECD/IEA, 2012003-06_Acknowledgements.indd 6 14/05/2012 12:36:06 OECD/IEA, 2012Table of Contents 7 Table of Contents Addressing environmental risks 17 The environmental impact of unconventional gas production 18 Shale and ti
33、ght gas developments 21 Coalbed methane developments 28 Water use 30 Treatment and disposal of waste water 32 Methane and other air emissions 38 Golden Rules to address the environmental impacts 42 Measure, disclose and engage 43 Watch where you drill 44 Isolate wells and prevent leaks 45 Treat wate
34、r responsibly 45 Eliminate venting, minimise flaring and other emissions 46 Be ready to think big 47 Ensure a consistently high level of environmental performance 48 Complying with the Golden Rules 49 Implications for governments 49 Implications for industry 52 The Golden Rules Case and its counterp
35、art 63 Paths for unconventional gas development 64 Golden Rules and other policy conditions 65 Unconventional gas resources 68 Development and production costs 71 Natural gas prices 73 Other assumptions 75 1 2 Acknowledgements 3 Executive Summary 9 The Golden Rules 13 Introduction 15 007-08_Table of
36、 contents.indd 7 14/05/2012 12:19:26 OECD/IEA, 20128 World Energy Outlook | Special Report The Golden Rules Case 76 Demand 76 Supply 81 International gas trade, markets and security 86 Investment and other economic impacts 88 Climate change and the environment 91 The Low Unconventional Case 92 Deman
37、d 92 Supply 93 International gas trade, markets and security 96 Investment and other economic impacts 98 Climate change and the environment 99 Country and regional outlooks 101 United States 102 Canada 108 Mexico 111 China 115 Europe 120 Australia 130 Annexes 137 Annex A. Units and conversion factor
38、s 137 Annex B. References 139 3 007-08_Table of contents.indd 8 14/05/2012 12:19:26 OECD/IEA, 2012Executive Summary 9 Executive Summary Natural gas is poised to enter a golden age, but will do so only if a significant proportion of the worlds vast resources of unconventional gas shale gas, tight gas
39、 and coalbed methane can be developed profitably and in an environmentally acceptable manner. Advances in upstream technology have led to a surge in the production of unconventional gas in North America in recent years, holding out the prospect of further increases in production there and the emerge
40、nce of a large-scale unconventional gas industry in other parts of the world, where sizeable resources are known to exist. The boost that this would give to gas supply would bring a number of benefits in the form of greater energy diversity and more secure supply in those countries that rely on impo
41、rts to meet their gas needs, as well as global benefits in the form of reduced energy costs. Yet a bright future for unconventional gas is far from assured: numerous hurdles need to be overcome, not least the social and environmental concerns associated with its extraction. Producing unconventional
42、gas is an intensive industrial process, generally imposing a larger environmental footprint than conventional gas development. More wells are often needed and techniques such as hydraulic fracturing are usually required to boost the flow of gas from the well. The scale of development can have major
43、implications for local communities, land use and water resources. Serious hazards, including the potential for air pollution and for contamination of surface and groundwater, must be successfully addressed. Greenhouse-gas emissions must be minimised both at the point of production and throughout the
44、 entire natural gas supply chain. Improperly addressed, these concerns threaten to curb, if not halt, the development of unconventional resources. The technologies and know-how exist for unconventional gas to be produced in a way that satisfactorily meets these challenges, but a continuous drive fro
45、m governments and industry to improve performance is required if public confidence is to be maintained or earned. The industry needs to commit to apply the highest practicable environmental and social standards at all stages of the development process. Governments need to devise appropriate regulato
46、ry regimes, based on sound science and high-quality data, with sufficient compliance staff and guaranteed public access to information. Although there is a range of other factors that will affect the development of unconventional gas resources, varying between different countries, our judgement is t
47、hat there is a critical link between the way that governments and industry respond to these social and environmental challenges and the prospects for unconventional gas production. 009-12_Executive Summary.indd 9 14/05/2012 12:36:45 OECD/IEA, 201210 World Energy Outlook | Special Report We have deve
48、loped a set of “Golden Rules”, suggesting principles that can allow policy- makers, regulators, operators and others to address these environmental and social impacts. 1We have called them Golden Rules because their application can bring a level of environmental performance and public acceptance tha
49、t can maintain or earn the industry a “social licence to operate” within a given jurisdiction, paving the way for the widespread development of unconventional gas resources on a large scale, boosting overall gas supply and making the golden age of gas a reality. The Golden Rules underline that full transparency, measuring and monitoring of environmental impacts and engagement with local communities are critical to addressing public concerns. Careful choice of drilling sites can reduce the above-ground impacts and most effe
