1、2010.06.03The deflation dilemma 閫氳揣绱缉鐨勫洶澧- 绀捐 Leaders - 缁忔祹瀛汉缁忔祹瀛汉|缁忔祹瀛 - Powered by Discuz!娉唽鎴愪负ECOer 鐧诲綍 姣忓懆閫夐 鏂版墜鎶埌鍏憡鏍忛氬濉斿悇鍦拌仈璋婃悳绱 log榛樿blue椋庢牸jeansfashionfervorgreenwalluchome2009christmas绉佷汉娑堟伅 (0)鍏 叡娑堟伅 (0)绯荤粺娑堟伅 (0)濂藉弸娑堟伅 (0)甯栧瓙娑堟伅 (0)搴旂敤閫氱煡 (0)搴旂敤閭璇(0)缁忔祹瀛汉 禄 绀捐 Leaders 禄 2010.06.03The defla
2、tion dilemma 閫氳揣绱缉鐨勫洶澧 鏂版墜蹇呰 TE璇戞枃瑙勮寖 | ECO鑻辫 娌欓緳 ECO 鎷涜仒鍚 簨 璇戞枃濂栧姳璁垝鈥滈氬濉斺漈E鎺堟潈澹版槑 | QQ 绗0缇鑵捐 寰崥璁槄 The Economist12涓嬩竴椤佃繑 娑堟伅 负濂藉弸 荤 UID92710 甯栧瓙10 涓 2 0 绉 5 绉 0 20 GBP 璇4 懆 0 currency1 濂栧姳璇戞枃 0 currency1“鍏 fi呰 fl 10 濂 鍦 3 忔 娉唽 2010-3-16 鍚” 010-6-5 甯栧瓙10 绉 5 璇4 娉唽 2010-3-16 1 禄 瀛 : tT 14:44 | 璇 2010.
3、06.03The deflation dilemma 閫氳揣绱缉鐨勫洶澧deflation, 閫氳揣绱缉, dilemma, The, 鍚 lilywizardry 2010-6-6 00:13 Global economic policy鍏 缁忔祹 The deflation dilemma閫氳揣绱缉鐨勫洶澧Rich countries must act to prevent prices from falling. That will cause problems for emerging economies藉 蹇 鎺 fi 鏂 缁忔祹 Jun 3rd 2010 | From The Ec
4、onomist print editionSHOULD you fret more about inflation or deflation? Few questions matter more for investors and policymakers, yet few seem so uncertain. Financial markets are sending mixed signals. Falling yields on Treasury bonds suggest that many investors worry about economic stagnation and d
5、eflation; the soaring price of gold points to fears of runaway inflation.閫氳揣 氳揣绱缉涓 鎷 庢 勮 拰鍐崇 呮 潵璇达紝鍐嶆病変粈堟瘮杩欐涓哄叧绯 噸殑嗭紝熶技庢病変粈堛傞 铻嶅競鍦虹粰鍑虹殑淇彿骞笉氶氳繃闀挎湡 藉哄彂 噺鐨勪笉鏂 噺 垯 互嚭屾 勮 缁忔祹鍋滄粸 氳揣绱 缉鐢氭槸鎷 涢氳繃榛勯 浠锋牸鐨勭绾块 垯 互嚭轰滑瀵规伓氳揣绱缉鐨勬亹鎯Economists also differ in their assessment of where the greater risks lie, depending l
6、argely on the country and time frame they are looking at. Judging by the discussion in a new online forum of more than 50 leading economists from around the world, which The Economist launched this week, deflation is the bigger short-term danger in big, rich economies, whereas inflation is an immedi
7、ate worry in many emerging economies and, potentially, a longer-term danger in rich ones.鐢变簬鍏虫敞鐨勫浗瀹跺拰 妗嗘灦涓嶅悓岀粡娴庡 瀹滑瀵逛簬涓 闄殑棰勪及熶笉涓鏍枫傛湰鍛 紝銆婄粡娴庡恒彂 蜂簡涓涓湪绾胯鍧涳紝 50氫綅嚜涓栫晫鍚勫湴鐨勮憲鍚嶇粡娴庡 瀹跺簲閭鍦 鍚勬姃宸辫 銆傜粡杩囪 璁猴紝浠栦滑璁负 庡 藉己 芥潵璇达紝鐭 湡鍐 氳揣绱 缉鐨勫 瀹虫紝 庢 鍏 粡娴 氳揣 欐槸 璁 汉鎷 鐨勯 棰 悓 紝瀵逛簬瀵浗 氳揣 槸涓 鍦殑闀挎湡 銆 That seems a fair assessme
8、nt. In America, the euro area and Japan, deflation is either uncomfortably close or a painful reality, despite near-zero interest rates and other efforts by central banks. In the year to April core consumer prices rose by a mere 0.9% in America, the slowest pace in four decades. In the euro area the
9、y rose by 0.7%. And in Japan, which has battled falling prices for more than a decade, they fell by 1.5%. 杩 技庢槸涓涓 殑 拌 銆 湪缇庡浗屾 拰“湰 氬 涳紝瀛 熶 闄嶅埌杩 氳揣绱 缉鐨勮 挎currency1 呮“勯氳揣绱缉鐨勭 湪缇庡浗屾fifl埌浠 屾蹇 浠蜂”涓婃.9% “ 湪currency1 屾蹇 浠蜂”涓婃.7%銆傛 骞潵涓湪鎺 骞 鐨勬蹇 浠蜂 .5%銆Nor is there much reason to expect a sudden turnaround. Br
10、oad measures of money and credit growth are stagnant or shrinking in all three places. Unemployment is high and there are large gaps between the economies鈥actual output and their potential. In the euro area, especially, austerity plans will further sap domestic demand. Thankfully, there is unlikely
11、to be a sudden price plunge, not least because ordinary people still expect consumer prices to rise modestly, and these expectations of future inflation help anchor actual prices. But the short-term balance of pressures clearly points downward.杩 跺骞笉 氱 跺 湪缇庡浗屾 拰“湰负 闀胯 栫殑骞挎 鎺 芥病 拌 濂芥 紝变 笉涓 紝缁忔祹 闄 鍑哄拰宸
12、 鐨勫 鍏跺湪currency1 岀揣 杩 竴 鍑忓 銆 笉杩簡骞殑 紝湰涓 鍑虹 鐨勪 鏍 毚 屻傝涓”浠 洜涓轰汉姘 甯屾湜娑堣垂浠锋牸閫 鍦颁笂 囷紝 笖瀵逛簬悗鐨勯氳棰勬湡 氭湁簬绋冲畾瀹為檯浠锋牸銆 帇 涘湪鐭 湡鍐呯殑骞 浠笉瀹逛箰瑙傘 So, too, does the balance of risks. Deflation, if it becomes entrenched, is more dangerous than most forms of inflation. When prices fall consumers put off their purchases in
13、anticipation of even greater bargains later, condemning the economy to a vicious cycle of weak spending and sliding prices. In heavily indebted economies falling prices would increase the real burden of consumers鈥and governments鈥debts.椋 櫓鐨勫钩 姸鍐典篃鍚屾牱濡傛 銆 滈氳揣绱 缉 垚鏍规繁钂 浐鐨勭姸鍐碉紝閭箞瀹冧 姣斿氭暟 fl紡鐨勯氳揣 鏇叿 瀹虫 涓嬭
14、穼鐨勬欙紝娑堣垂 湪 拱 负涓 鎸 害互 緟鏇翠綆鐨勪 鏍笺傝鏍蜂竴紝 缁忔祹嗕 闄 叆娑堣垂鐤 急 岀浠蜂 婊 殑鎭舵惊 銆 湪 虹 绱殑缁忔祹 撲岀浠风殑涓嬭穼 氱粰娑堣垂 拰 垮簻鐨勮礋哄 犲 礋鎷呫Deflation is also harder to fight than inflation. Over the past two decades central bankers have gained plenty of experience in how to conquer excessive price increases. Japan鈥檚 ongoing inability t
15、o prevent prices falling suggests the opposite task is rather less well understood. Although it is true that heavily indebted governments might be tempted to erode their debts through higher inflation, there are few signs that political support for low inflation is waning (see article).涓 氳揣 告瘮 氳揣绱缉鏇
16、磋 哄鐥涖 湪杩幓崄骞翠 悇 瀵逛簬濡 綍鎺 杩害鐨勭浠蜂笂娑凡绉 嗕赴瀵岀殑缁忛獙 庡 曚績杩 涚浠蜂笂娑 紝 翠笉界 銆 緥濡傦紝“湰氬櫧竴 帶剁浠疯穼 斤紝 嗘槸 翠 舵 鐢氬井銆 瀹炴湁涓涜礋虹 绱 殑 垮簻寰堟兂閫氳繃 橀氳揣 囨潵渚佃殌鍏跺哄姟 苟娌湁浠堣抗璞 庯紝閭簺缁寔 氳揣 囩殑鐨勬斂绛栨湁鍑忓急銆Add all this together and the world鈥檚 big three central banks鈥攊n America, the euro zone and Japan鈥攕hould worry most about falling prices. The
17、 scale of budget belt-tightening suggests these banks鈥policy rates could stay way down for several years. But this will cause problems elsewhere. Near-zero interest rates in the big, rich economies send capital flooding elsewhere in search of higher yields, making it harder for the healthier countri
18、es to keep their economies stable.缁悎杩 簺岀編 斤紝currency1 屾 涓 搴旀媴蹇冪殑辨槸 鐨勯 棰 傝 涓変釜 藉 鐨勫紑 楃揣 殑瑙勬 熻庯紝鍦湭 骞翠 涓 嗘寔缁 鎸 斂绛栨 綆 銆 粰鍏 藉 甯 潵 藉 芥 杩 鐨勫 績 垮 勬湰涓轰簡瀵 鏇 炴 屾 鍏 浠栧競鍦恒傝璁 浠栫粡娴姸鍐 搴风殑 藉 鏇 淇 寔缁忔祹绋冲畾銆 Helps here, hurts there甯 簡杩欓 The problem will be most acute in emerging economies. Many are already overheating,
19、with prices rising and asset bubbles inflating. Most have inappropriately loose monetary policy. Real interest rates are negative in two-thirds of the 25 emerging economies tracked by The Economist. Their inflation expectations are less stable, so prices can quickly spiral upwards.瀵逛簬鏂 缁忔祹 潵璇达紝杩 釜 甯
20、告 鐨 洜涓 涓婃 娌 氭 鍏 粡娴庢currency1宸繃 紝 “版 鍏 粡娴 涓嶅悎跺鍦版簡 銆傘婄粡娴庡 恒嬭fifl 簡 25涓 鍏 粡娴 浠 2/3鐨勭粡娴 鐨勫 闄 鍛堣礋笺 浠 殑閫氳棰勬湡骞笉绋冲畾洜 岀浠蜂杩 This suggests a need for tighter monetary policy. Central banks in Brazil, Malaysia and elsewhere have begun. But the most important emerging economy, China, pegs its currency to America
21、鈥檚 dollar, which limits its ability to raise interest rates. And even those with more flexible exchange rates worry that higher interest rates will send their currencies soaring.杩 拌 槑 揣甯 揣 斂绛栨槸 蹇呰 鐨 垮拰”潵绛 湴鏂殑 藉凡 揣甯 揣 斂绛紝 嗘槸涓 浗 负涓涓 鐨勬 鍏粡娴 诲甯 缇庡鐨勬 囷紝闄 鐨勮 涖傜 湁 鐨勬 搴殑 藉 媴蹇紝鏇 鐨勫 璁 浠 殑 椋銆In fact, stronger
22、currencies in emerging markets are a necessary part of the 鈥 ebalancing鈥of the global economy that will allow enfeebled rich economies an escape from deflationary pressure. Tighter fiscal policy in emerging economies would help dampen price pressure. Capital controls should be part of their defences
23、, too, against sudden floods of foreign cash.鍏跺 屾 鍏 粡娴 鍧氭 鐨勮揣甯 槸 嶆 骞 涓栫晫缁忔祹涓 殑涓 互甯 绉 急鐨勫彂 粡娴 閫冪 閫氳揣绱 缉鐨勫洶澧 傛 鍏 粡娴 鐨勬绱 挎斂绛栧 浠 瑙 銆傝 帶篃搴旀垚涓哄 淇 鐨勪 竴 互fi 舵 鍏殑栧浗 勬湰銆History suggests, however, that none of these policies will be a panacea. When monetary conditions in the rich world are loose, emerging econ
24、omies are prone to lending binges and asset bubbles. The price of avoiding deflation in the rich world today may be a bust in the emerging world tomorrow.璇 槑 斂绛 涓嶆槸涓 嬭 銆 瀵浗 紝鏂 缁忔祹 垯 藉嚭 版娉 剁殑锋 娌 藉湪浠 涓 氳揣绱缉 栫殑鎺 藉 垚庡鏂 缁忔祹 殑鏍规銆闄勪 : ” 互涓嬭 鎴栨煡 浠傛病 娉唽鎴愪负ECOer 棰 rushor 4 忔 闄 嗕 娑堟伅 负濂藉弸 荤 UID92710 甯栧瓙10 涓 2
25、0 绉 5 绉 0 20 GBP 璇4 懆 0 currency1 濂栧姳璇戞枃 0 currency1“鍏 fi呰 fl 10 濂 鍦 3 忔 娉唽 2010-3-16 鍚” 010-6-5 甯栧瓙10 绉 5 璇4 娉唽 2010-3-16 2 14:46 | 璇 currency1繋鐮爾TOP 6fingers 娑堟伅 负濂藉弸 6fingers 荤 UID90865 甯栧瓙28 涓 2 0 绉 7 绉 0 15 GBP 璇3 懆 0 currency1 濂栧姳璇戞枃 0 currency1“VERYCD fi呰 fl 10 鍦 69 忔 娉唽 2010-3-1 鍚”010-6-5 涓
26、澹畼甯栧瓙28 绉 7 璇3 娉唽 2010-3-1 3 15:16 | 璇 鎰熻阿 缈昏瘧“Helps here, hurts there甯 簡杩欓 忓鎰忚 氱炕鎴愨濋【 尖濅 涓 鏇 畝 佷簺鍛 TOP 娑堟伅 负濂藉弸 荤 UID92710 甯栧瓙10 涓 2 0 绉 5 绉 0 20 GBP 璇4 懆 0 currency1 濂栧姳璇戞枃 0 currency1“鍏 fi呰 fl 10 濂 鍦 3 忔 娉唽 2010-3-16 鍚” 010-6-5 甯栧瓙10 绉 5 璇4 娉唽 2010-3-16 4 18:48 | 璇 3# 6fingers 鎭 犺涓 TOP ggh315 娑堟伅
27、 负濂藉弸 ggh315 荤 UID87926 甯栧瓙84 涓 8 0 绉 23 绉 2 77 GBP 璇15 懆 0 currency1 濂栧姳璇戞枃 0 currency1“弸鎺 崘 fi呰 fl 10 鍦 78 忔 娉唽 2010-1-28 鍚” 010-6-6 澹 畼甯栧瓙84 绉 23 璇15 娉唽 2010-1-28 5 20:13 | 璇 1# 1.Deflation, if it becomes entrenched宨s more dangerous than most forms of inflation犵杩欐牱璇 浠悧氬 滈氳揣绱 缉鐨勮 笉 嗚 氭瘮“ 舰忕殑閫氳揣 鏇叿
28、 瀹虫TOP ggh315 娑堟伅 负濂藉弸 ggh315 荤 UID87926 甯栧瓙84 涓 8 0 绉 23 绉 2 77 GBP 璇15 懆 0 currency1 濂栧姳璇戞枃 0 currency1“弸鎺 崘 fi呰 fl 10 鍦 78 忔 娉唽 2010-1-28 鍚” 010-6-6 澹 畼甯栧瓙84 绉 23 璇15 娉唽 2010-1-28 6 20:18 | 璇 1# 2銆侷n heavily indebted economies falling prices would increase the real burden of consumers鈥and governm
29、ents鈥debts.杩欓 変釜鐤 氫粈堟槸瀹炰 媴熺鎺 犻噸娑堣垂 拰 垮簻鐨勫哄姟 媴 互 TOP ggh315 娑堟伅 负濂藉弸 ggh315 荤 UID87926 甯栧瓙84 涓 8 0 绉 23 绉 2 77 GBP 璇15 懆 0 currency1 濂栧姳璇戞枃 0 currency1“弸鎺 崘 fi呰 fl 10 鍦 78 忔 娉唽 2010-1-28 鍚” 010-6-6 澹 畼甯栧瓙84 绉 23 璇15 娉唽 2010-1-28 7 20:27 | 璇 1# 3銆侫lthough it is true that heavily indebted governments m
30、ight be tempted to erode their debts through higher inflation, there are few signs that political support for low inflation is waning (see article).界 纭 変竴涜礋虹 绱 殑 垮簻寰堟兂閫氳繃 橀氳揣 囨潵闄綆 哄姟姘钩 苟娌湁浠堣抗璞 庯紝閭簺缁寔 氳揣 囩殑鐨勬斂绛栨湁鍑忓急銆 藉 瑙噴涓涓師 狅 涓轰粈堥 閫氳揣 囪闄綆哄姟姘钩TOP ggh315 娑堟伅 负濂藉弸 ggh315 荤 UID87926 甯栧瓙84 涓 8 0 绉 23 绉 2
31、 77 GBP 璇15 懆 0 currency1 濂栧姳璇戞枃 0 currency1“弸鎺 崘 fi呰 fl 10 鍦 78 忔 娉唽 2010-1-28 鍚” 010-6-6 澹 畼甯栧瓙84 绉 23 璇15 娉唽 2010-1-28 8 20:56 | 璇 4The scale of budget belt-tightening suggests these banks鈥policy rates could stay way down for several years涓変釜 藉 嬬缉棰勭畻瑙勬 熻庯紝鍦湭 骞翠 涓 鍦斂绛栦笂嗙户缁 鎸佷綆 TOP ggh315 娑堟伅 负濂藉弸
32、ggh315 荤 UID87926 甯栧瓙84 涓 8 0 绉 23 绉 2 77 GBP 璇15 懆 0 currency1 濂栧姳璇戞枃 0 currency1“弸鎺 崘 fi呰 fl 10 鍦 78 忔 娉唽 2010-1-28 鍚” 010-6-6 澹 畼甯栧瓙84 绉 23 璇15 娉唽 2010-1-28 9 20:59 | 璇 5銆侻ost have inappropriately loose monetary policy“版 鍏 粡娴 涓嶅悎跺鍦 栦簡瀹芥鐨勮揣甯 斂绛紝鎴 寰楄鏍锋椤恒TOP ggh315 娑堟伅 负濂藉弸 ggh315 荤 UID87926 甯栧瓙84 涓
33、 8 0 绉 23 绉 2 77 GBP 璇15 懆 0 currency1 濂栧姳璇戞枃 0 currency1“弸鎺 崘 fi呰 fl 10 鍦 78 忔 娉唽 2010-1-28 鍚” 010-6-6 澹 畼甯栧瓙84 绉 23 璇15 娉唽 2010-1-28 10 21:05 | 璇 6.Tighter fiscal policy in emerging economies would help dampen price pressure鏂 缁忔祹 殑斂绱缉 互甯 撹 鍏剁浠 帇 TOP 12涓嬩竴椤佃繑 涓撻 Special Reports鍛 The World This Week
34、=璇戞枃涓 =缈昏瘧禌璇戞枃 愪氦涓 増閫夐 Weekly Topics忔瀽 Appreciation“ Daily News Analysis鍛 The World This Week捐 Daily Chart涓撻 Special Reports绀捐 Leaders补 Briefing涓 爮 Columns缇庡浗 United States氶 鎷Asia Africa & Americascurrency1 Europe & Britain介檯 International鍟嗕 Business粡 Finance & Economics绉戞妧 Science & Technology瀛 垔 T
35、echnology Quarterly鏂囪壓 Books & Arts虹 People灞湜 The World in灞湜2008灞湜2009灞湜2010鍏 Others銆婄航绾 鎶嬩汉 増銆婃嘲鏅 鎶嬩汉 増銆 旇 “ 銆嬭瘎璁虹増銆 弬 鎭 嬬炕璇 = 勬鍏变 =ECO 懆ECO涓 汉涓撻泦濈 璇 憳涓 璇 憳 璇 憳=鑻辫 瀛範 =閫氬濉瑪璇 璁 TE鐤 湴寰笀 湴鍚 瑙 currency1祻缁忛獙祦=鎯呮劅祦=璋堣偂璁 簨 璋璇湴鍚勫湴鑱旇皧ECO鑻辫 娌欓緳堣 涓 庡寳鍦 涓寳鍦 笢鍦 鍦 庡崡鍦 垮崡鍦 垮寳鍦 版腐婢藉 鍦 =鍏 憡寤鸿 =鍏 憡鏍 鎴 暱瓒抗TE 勬枡搴ECO缈昏
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