1、,PASTORALISTS RESPONSES TO RESOURCE VARIATION IN AUSTRALIAN RANGELANDS Agistment networks 澳大利亚草原牧民对资源变化的应对 代牧网络,Ryan McAllister Research Scientist 22 March 2007,GRAZING IN AUSTRALIA澳大利亚的放牧,Social adaptation to ecological change,降水缺乏：24个月 2001年12月1日到2003年11月30日,Social adaptation to ecological change,
2、Jennie Lovell,Social adaptation to ecological change,Mobility (3),Time,Resource Availability,by Chris Stokes,资源可得性,时间,Social adaptation to ecological change,Asynchronous spatial patterns 异步空间模式,by Chris Stokes,Social adaptation to ecological change,Fragmentation 破碎化,Stokes, Ash, McAllister 2004 Frag
3、mentation of Australian rangelands, Australian Rangeland Society Conference, Alice Springs 5-8 July.,Nomadism: Opportunistic movement around entire region ranging out from key resources 游牧： 整个区域内从关键资源的四处移动,Resource Excision: Ownership of a key resource providing partial access to surrounding area 资源
4、切除： 对关键资源的所有权使得周边地区只有部分的进入权,Regional Fragmentation: More uniform resource access allows splitting of larger properties 区域的破碎化： 更多的均匀的资源被分成大块的财产,Consolidation: Spatial connectivity restored by property consolidation and agistment arrangements 合并： 通过财产合并和代牧安排恢复空间联系,Social adaptation to ecological chan
5、ge,Mobility (3),Time,Resource Availability,by Chris Stokes,资源可得性,时间,Social adaptation to ecological change,Intensification 集约化,1860,Artificial water, -1960,New breeding, 1970-,Abbott, McAllister 2004, Using GIS & Satellite Imagery to Estimate the Historical Expansion of Grazing Country in the Dalrym
6、ple Shire, Australian Rangeland Society Conference, Alice Springs 5-8 July.,Approximate percentage of land available to grazing 放牧可得土地的估算百分比,Social adaptation to ecological change,贫瘠和斑块化的自然资源,基本驱动力（降水和其它天气条件）的变化性和极端,分散、移动和斑块化的人口,分散、移动和斑块化的人口,遥远的市场和政治中心,特定类型的民族、文化和制度,市场、劳动力和政策的不可预测性和不可控性,当地和传统知识的更重要的
7、意义,II. LIVESTOCK MOBILITY 牲畜移动性,Social adaptation to ecological change,Systems of pastoral opportunism 牧业的机会主义体系,“African” systems 非洲体系 Well studied 被很好的研究过 Generally long established 通常是已建立了很长时间 Generally based on common-property rights 通常是基于共有产权 Generally informal institutions 通常是非正式的制度Current Aus
8、tralian system of agistment 澳大利亚现有的代牧体系 Not well studied 没有被深入的研究过 New, perhaps only 30yrs old 新建立的，可能只有30年的历史 Based on private-property rights 基于私有产权 Embedded within a formally institutionised system 包含在一种正式的制度体系之中,Social adaptation to ecological change,Townsville,降水缺乏：24个月 2001年12月1日到2003年11月30日,S
9、ocial adaptation to ecological change,Townsville,降水缺乏：24个月 2001年12月1日到2003年11月30日,Social adaptation to ecological change,Townsville,降水缺乏：24个月 2001年12月1日到2003年11月30日,Social adaptation to ecological change,Semi-structured interviews 半结构式访谈,Social adaptation to ecological change,Drought mitigation (69%
10、) 干旱迁移（69 %）Strategic stock building to stock future planned land purchases (31%) 策略性的建立畜群以放在未来计划购买的土地上放养（31 %）Both of the above where discussed by 23%. 以上两种情况都包含（23 %）,(1) Reason for seeking agistment land? 寻找代牧土地的原因？,Social adaptation to ecological change,Strategic land acquisition with future cat
11、tle purchases to follow (31%) 策略性的土地获得以经营未来购买的牛（31 %）Taking advantage of unexpected or patchy rainfall (23%) 有效利用不可预期的或斑块化的降水（23 %）Strategic designation of land to generate agistment fee cash-flows (15%) 策略性的土地命名以得到代牧费的现金流（15 %）,(2) Reason for offering agistment land? 提供代牧土地的原因？,Reeson,. McAllister,
12、 Whitten, Gordon, Nicholas. The agistment market in the Australian Rangelands: failings and opportunities. The Rangeland Journal,Social adaptation to ecological change,On average agisted stock travelled along 375km of road or 270km in a straight line. 平均来看，代牧的牲畜需要沿着公路走375公里或270公里的直线距离。The greatest d
13、istance travelled was recalled to be 1,200 km by road. 被回忆起来的最远距离是沿公路走1200公里。,(3) Distances involved 所走的距离,Reeson,. McAllister, Whitten, Gordon, Nicholas. The agistment market in the Australian Rangelands: failings and opportunities. The Rangeland Journal,Social adaptation to ecological change,Pasto
14、ralists relied predominantly on hand-shake or verbal agreements (46%) 牧民主要依靠握手协议或手头协议（46 %）Few relied on legally binding documents (8%) 很少牧民依靠有法律约束力的协议（8 %）,(4) Agreements 协议,Reeson,. McAllister, Whitten, Gordon, Nicholas. The agistment market in the Australian Rangelands: failings and opportunities
15、. The Rangeland Journal,Social adaptation to ecological change,Two other grazing case-study sites did little agistment (central Australia; Murray-Darling) 另外两个放牧案例地很少利用代牧（澳大利亚中部和毛利达令）,(5) Disparity between regions 地区间的差别,Reeson,. McAllister, Whitten, Gordon, Nicholas. The agistment market in the Aus
16、tralian Rangelands: failings and opportunities. The Rangeland Journal,Social adaptation to ecological change,III. ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORKS 分析框架,Game theory 博弈理论,Experimental Economics 实验经济学,Market failure framework 市场失灵框架,Modern portfolio Theory 现代投资组合理论,Social adaptation to ecological change,It pays t
17、o be trusted when spatial variation exists! 当空间变化存在时是值得信任的！,Game theory How valued is trust? 博弈理论：？,McAllister et al (2006). Pastoralists responses to variation of rangeland resources in time and space, Ecological Applications 16, 572-583.,补偿变化的成本,其他人的信任度（%）,Social adaptation to ecological change,(2
18、) Experimental economics Are rural or urban more altruistic? 实验经济学：农村还是城市更加利他？,Urban 城市,Rural 农村,Urban 城市,Rural 农村,TRUSTING 信任,TRUSTWORTHINESS 可信赖性,McAllister et al (2008). Social networks in arid Australia: a review of concepts and evidence, The Rangeland Journal 30, 167-176.McAllister & Reeson (20
19、07). An experimental approach to comparing trust in pastoral and non-pastoral Australia. SEED working paper series, Canberra.,Social adaptation to ecological change,(3) Modern portfolio theory Mobility critical because its different 现代投资组合理论：关键的移动性，因为它是不同的,Expected resource,Variability (of resources
20、),Temporal,Mobility,McAllister et al (2009). Patterns of accessing variable resources across time and space: desert plants, animals and people, Journal of Arid Environments 73, 338-346. Stafford Smith & McAllister (2008). Managing dryland natural resources for spatial and temporal variability - an a
21、pproach from first principles, The Rangeland Journal 30, 15-27.,预期资源,移动性,时间的,（资源的）变化性,Social adaptation to ecological change,(4) Market failure framework Mobility can be utilised more effectively 市场失灵框架：移动性可以被更有效地利用,Agistment is widely used, there are failings: 代牧被广泛地利用，但也有失败的地方： the lack of a commo
22、n marketplace 缺少共同市场 asymmetric information on the characteristics of the other party in an agreement, 协议中对另一方属性的不对称信息 and a lack of mutual expectations at the outset.从一开始就缺少相互预期,There institutional and technology solutions which work to support existing social norms! 能够支持现有社会规范的制度和技术的解决办法！,Reeson e
23、t al (2008). The agistment market in the northern Australian rangelands: failings and opportunities, The Rangeland Journal 30, 283-289.,Social adaptation to ecological change,Thank You,Contact CSIRO Phone 1300 363 400+61 3 9545 2176 Email enquiriescsiro.au Web www.csiro.au,CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems Name Ryan McAllister Title Research Scientist Phone +61 7 3214 2359 Email ryan.mcallistercsiro.au Web www.csiro.au,
