1、1,PRODUCTION PLANNER Training生產計劃員培訓,ADM,2,Content內容,Introduction介紹 Organization組織 Job Description Quality品質工作內容說明 Job Description Cost成本工作內容說明 Job Description Delivery交期工作內容說明 Job Description Safety安全工作內容說明 Performance Measurement表現量度,3,Introduction介紹,4,Global Objective全球化目標,重組 ADM機構以支援未來發展和為 WCM的推
2、行打下基礎. Restructure ADM organization to support future growth and lay the foundation for WCM implementation,5,Training Objetive培訓,Introduce the concepts, relationships and basic tools required to hold Production Planner position into a business unit organization 介紹概念,相互關係及基本所需的工具以支持商業單位架構中生產計劃員的地位,6,
3、A World Class Company世界級管理公司,The term World Class Manufacturing Company is used to describe the best manufacturing companies in the world. 世界級制造公司的條件是用於描述世界上最好的制造公司 Generally includes:一般包含 A new approach to product quality. 一個新的產品品質演進 Just in Time production techniques.即時生產技術 Change in the way the w
4、ork force is managed. 改變職工的管理方式 A flexible approach to customer requirements. 靈活性的達成客的需求,7,World Class Manufacturing世界級製造商,Education and Training,ERP,TQM,LPS,應用商業聚合系統來聯繫人員與制程.,世界級製造商元素是:,進行在職教育與培訓.,持續改善公司的所有工作.,通過革新產品及優質服務來開發公司的競爭優勢.,8,ERP (Enterprise Resources Planning) 企業了資源計畫,ERP,ERP,ERP,ERP,ERP,
5、ERP,ERP,ERP,9,Total Quality Management 全面品質管理,TQM,TQM,TQM,TQM,TQM,TQM,TQM,TQM,TQM,TQM,TQM,10,LPS (Lean Production System)精簡生產系統,LPS,LPS,LPS,LPS,LPS,LPS,LPS,LPS,11,CHANGE IS A CHALLENGE變更是一項挑戰,CHANGE變更is a matter of common interest and survival. 是關係到共同利益與生存的,12,CHANGE IS A CHALLENGE 變更是一項挑戰,Our backg
6、round and parameters have changed and we MUST be ready to satisfy the demands of our customers. 我們所處的時代與條件已改變，我們必須有充分的準備去滿足客戶的需求。,13,STRATEGIES FOR SUCCESS成功之策略,All successfull Companies have simple lines of command that: 所有成功的公司都有簡明的要求用於Promote team work 促進團隊精神 Define responsibilities and scopes 界定
7、職責與範疇 Assign specific activities for the personnel. 委派明確的活動給予職員,14,STRATEGIES FOR SUCCESS成功之策略,We all know that it might be difficult to change, because old habits and beliefs could hold us back, but. 我們都知道變更是痛苦的，因為舊習慣和信仰令人們躊躇，但是,This IS the time to realize that theres always a better way of doing t
8、hings.現在是領悟到每一件事永遠都有更好的方法去做的時候了,15,Organization組織,16,2nd Level Organization第二階層的組織,17,Production Supervisor,Programmer,Quality Enginneer,Cont Improv Enginneer,Manufacturing Enginneer,Die Casting BU Manager,Industrial Eng & Cont Improv Mgr,Quality Manager,Operations Director,Engineering Director,Mate
9、rials Director,Human Resources Director,Finance Director,Managing Director,Production Supervisor,Programmer,Quality Enginneer,Cont Improv Enginneer,Manufacturing Enginneer,Plastics BU Manager,Production Supervisor,Programmer,Quality Enginneer,Cont Improv Enginneer,Manufacturing Enginneer,Punch Press
10、 BU Manager,Production Supervisor,Programmer,Quality Enginneer,Product Enginneer,Cont Improv Enginneer,Manufacturing Enginneer,Garment Care BU Manager,Production Supervisor,Programmer,Quality Enginneer,Product Enginneer,Cont Improv Enginneer,Manufacturing Enginneer,Food Preparation BU Manager,Produc
11、tion Supervisor,Programmer,Quality Enginneer,Product Enginneer,Cont Improv Enginneer,Manufacturing Enginneer,Toaster Ovens BU Manager,Operations Organizations Chart Queretaro,18,Die Casting BU Manager,Operations Director,Materials Director,Managing Director,Plastics BU Manager,Punch Press BU Manager
12、,Garment Care BU Manager,Food Preparation BU Manager,Toaster Ovens BU Manager,Supporting Departments Functional Structure Queretaro,Industrial Eng & Cont Improv Mgr,Finance Director,Human Resources Director,Quality Manager,Engineering Director,19,The ERP System 企業資源計劃系統,20,The ERP System企業資源計劃系統,Mat
13、erials management物料管理 Forecasting訂單預測 Master Planning總排期 MRP物料需求計劃 Capacity Management產能管理 Inventory Management庫存管理 Quality Management & Purchasing 品質管理及採購 JIT Manufacturing即時生產製造 Quality品質,21,Forecasting定單預測,Factors influencing demand影響需求的因素 Basic demand patterns基本需求模式 Basic principles of forecasti
14、ng預測的基本原則 Principles of data collection資料收集原則 Basic forecasting techniques基本預測技巧 Seasonality季節性 Sources and types of forecast error 預測誤差的來源及類型,22,Planning and Control Hierarchy計劃及管理層次,At each level, there are three questions:在每一個階段都有三個問題What are the priorities?甚是優先What capacity is available?有甚產能？How
15、 can differences be resolved?如何解決差距,23,Factors Influencing Demand 影響需求的因素,General business and economic conditions一般商業及經濟條件 Competitive factors競爭因素 Market trends市場趨式 Firms own plans公司內部計劃_,24,Sources of Demand需求的來源,All sources of demand must be identified 所有需求的來源必須是確認的 Customers客 Spare parts配件 Promo
16、tion推廣 Intracompany企業之間 Other其他,25,Characteristics of Demand 需求的特性,26,Demand Patterns需求型態,Stable versus dynamic穩定對比動態 Stable demand retains same general shape over time穩定的需求會逐漸行成一個趨勢 Dynamic demand tends to be erratic 動態的需求往往是不穩定的,27,Demand Patterns需求形態,Dependent versus independent非獨立對比與獨立 Only inde
17、pendent demand needs to be forecast只有獨立需求需要去預測 Dependent demand should never be forecast非獨立性需求不需要預測,28,What Should Be Forecast? 什麼需要預測,29,Principles of Forecasting預測的原則,Forecasts預測 Are almost always wrong錯誤是經常發生的 Should include an estimate of error 應該包含預估的誤差 Are more accurate for groups of products對
18、產品系列來說應該比較準確 Are more accurate for nearer periods of time時間越近應該也越準確,30,Data Preparation and Collection數據準備及收集,Record data in terms needed for the forecast記錄預測所需的資料 Record circumstances relating to the data紀錄收集資料時的環境 Record demand separately for different customer groups對不同的客戶分別記錄其需求,31,Qualitative T
19、echniques量化方法,Are based on intuition and informed opinion是根據直覺及聽到的意見 Tend to be subjective趨向主觀 Are used for business planning and forecasting for new products 是用於商業計劃及新產品預測 Are used for medium-term to long-term forecasting是用於中期及長期預測,32,Quantitative Techniques量化方法,Based on historical data usually ava
20、ilable in the company 是基於公司通常可利用的歷史資料 Assume future will repeat past 假設未來也會再發生,33,Extrinsic Techniques外存方法,Based on external indicators是根據外在的指標 Useful in forecasting total company demand or demand for families of products用於預測公司的總需求和產品系列需求,34,Intrinsic Quantitative Techniques內存量化方法,35,Moving Averages
21、移動平均數,Forecast sales as an average of past months 以過去數月的平均數當作是銷售預測 An average of the past 3 months:前三個月的平均數If January sales are 90, forecast for February: 如果一月份銷售額是90,二月的預測是:,36,Moving Average Forecasting 移動平均數預測,It can be used to filter out random variation用於過濾隨機的變化 Longer periods smooth out random
22、 variation長期消除隨機的變化 If a trend exists, it is hard to detect 比較難偵測趨勢走向 Calculations can be cumbersome when dealing with more periods 當面對較多的時段,計算變得比較困難,37,Problem問題,Graph the demand using next slide data 利用下一頁資料將需求做成圖表 What is your best guess for demand for month 7? 七月最好的預測需求是什麼?,週期,需 求,38,Problem問題,月
23、份,需求,三個月合計,下月預測,39,Problem (solution)問題(答案),40,Exponential Smoothing指數調平法,Provides a routine method of updating item forecasts提供定時更新預測的方法 Works well for stable items對穩定的產品十分有效 Is satisfactory for short-range forecasts對短期的預測效果較好 Detects trends, but lags them 能夠偵測趨勢走向,但是會落後於趨勢,41,Seasonality季節性,Measur
24、es the amount of seasonal variation of demand for a product對一個產品計算其季節性需求的數量 Relates the average demand in a particular period to the average demand for all periods 一個特別時段的平均需求和整個時段的平均需求比較,季節性指數,季度平均銷售,全部季度的平均銷售,42,Developing Seasonal Sales Indexes草擬季節性銷售指數,Quarter Average Quarterly Sales/100 Seasona
25、l Index1 128/100 = 1.282 102/100 = 1.023 75/100 = 0.754 95/100 = 0.95Total = 4.00,銷售資料,年,季度,合計,平均,全部季度平均銷售,單位,季節性指數,平均每季銷售,季,43,Seasonal Sales季節性銷售,全部季度的平均銷售量,季度銷量,時間,銷量,44,Tracking the Forecast預測跟蹤,Forecasts are almost always wrongWhy track the forecast? 預測通常是錯誤的,為什麼要跟蹤預測 To plan around the error i
26、n the future 以現時誤差的幅度來調節預測 To measure actual demand versus forecasts量度實際的需求對比於預測 To improve our forecasting methods 改進我們的預測方法,45,Forecasts Can Be Wrong in Two Ways預測誤差可由兩方面引起,Bias: Cumulative sales may not be the same as forecast 偏差:累計銷售額可能和預測並不相同,Bias exists since the cumulative variation is not ze
27、ro 偏差的存在是因為累計變化並非為零,月份,預測,實際,變化,46,Forecasts Can Be Wrong in Two Ways預測誤差可由兩方面引起,Random variation: Sales will vary plus and minus about the average銷售一般在平均值的上或下變動,There is no bias, but there is random variation each month 即使沒有偏差,每個月都會有隨機變化,月份,預測,實際,變化,47,The ERP System企業資源計劃系統,Materials management物料管
28、理 Forecasting定單預測 Master Planning總排期 MRP物料需求計畫 Capacity Management產能管理 Inventory Management庫存管理 Quality Management & Purchasing 品質管理和採購 JIT Manufacturing即時生產製造 Quality品質,48,Master Planning總排期,Level production plan for make-to-stock products平衡按倉存生產的生產計劃 Relationship of resource requirements planning
29、to production planning 資源需求計劃對生產計劃的相互關係 Purpose of a master production schedule (MPS) and relationship to the production plan總生產排期的作用以及和生產計劃的關係 MPS and rough-cut capacity plan 總生產排期和粗略產能計畫 Relationship of the MPS to sales and the ability to promise delivery 總生產排期和銷售以及承諾交貨期的能力之間的相互關係,49,Planning and
30、Control計劃及控制,At each level we must answer these questions: 在每個層次我們必須回答這些問題 What are the demand priorities? 什麼是需求優先順序? What capacity is required? 需要什麼樣的產能? What capacity is available? 有多少產能可以運用?,商業計劃,生產計劃,總生產排期,物料需求計劃,生產控制活動與採購,計劃,執行,50,Making the Production Plan 擬定生產計畫,Definition:定義 .setting the ove
31、rall levels of manufacturing output. .決定整體的生產量 APICS Dictionary 字典 Production planning is concerned with生產計劃是針對 Planning for each product group每個產品系列的計畫 Meeting desired inventory levels符合庫存水平需求 Determining resources needed決定所需要的資源 Comparing with available resources和可利用的資源比較,51,Typical Characteristic
32、s典型的特徵,12-month time horizon十二個月的時間圖Fluctuating or seasonal demand變動和季節性需求Plan made for product families 以產品系列作計畫Variety of management objectives 管理目標的變化,52,Developing a Production Plan 發展生產計畫,Three basic strategies can be used: 有三個基本策略可以運用 Match/chase配合/追趕 Level平均分配 Combination/hybrid結合/混合,53,Chase
33、 Strategy追趕策略,生產銷售,54,Chase Strategy追趕策略,Advantages:優點 Stable inventory庫存穩定 Varied production to meet sales requirements 各樣的生產符合銷售需求 Disadvantages:缺點 Costs of hiring, training, overtime, and extra shifts人工,培訓,加班,額外的班次工作成本 Costs of layoffs and impact on employee morale 解雇以及影響雇員士氣的成本 Possible unavaila
34、bility of needed work skills 可能得不到所需要的工作技能 Maximum capacity needed需要最大的產能,55,Level Production Strategy 平均分佈生產策略,56,Level Production Strategy 平均分佈生產策略,Advantage:優點 Smooth, level production avoids costs of demand matching 穩定平均的生產可避免需求匹配而產生的成本Disadvantage:缺點 Buildup of inventory增加庫存,57,Combination Stra
35、tegy混合式策略,58,Combination Strategy混合式策略,Produces at or close to full capacity for some part of the cycle 部份零件在某個週期時段會以最大或接近最大產能生產 Produces at a lower rate (or does not produce) during the rest of the cycle 在其餘的時段生產量較低（或停產） Makes use of available capacity, yet limits inventory buildup and inventory ca
36、rrying costs 儘量利用產能,但限制庫存增長,庫存會帶來成本增加,59,Make-to-Stock Production Plan按庫存生產計劃,Goods are put into inventory and sold from inventory將成品入庫存而後由庫存進行銷售Used when:在下述狀況下採用Demand is constant and predictable 穩定且可預期的需求狀況Only a few product options exist 只有幾種產品可以選擇Delivery times are shorter than time needed to m
37、ake the product 交貨期小於產品制造期,60,Make-to-Stock Production Plan 按庫存計劃生產,Information needed所需的資訊 Forecast by time period for the planning horizon在計劃時間範圍內以時間階段做預測 Opening inventory開始庫存 Desired ending inventory最終所需庫存,61,Level Production Plan平均分佈生產,例子 : 開始結存 = 50 單位最終結存 = 40 單位,每週期生產數量 = 單位,第1週期之最後結存 = 開始倉存
38、 + 生產數量 - 需求預測= _ + _ _= _ 單位,生產所需總數 =總預測需求 + 最終結存 - 開始倉存=_ + _ _ = _ 單位,62,Level Production Plan平均分佈生產 (solution) (答案),例子 : 開始結存 = 50 單位最終結存 = 40 單位,每週期生產數量 = 單位,第1週期之最後結存 = 開始倉存 + 生產數量 - 需求預測= 50 + 58 55= 53 單位,生產所需總數 =總預測需求 + 最終結存 - 開始倉存= 300 + 40 50 = 290 單位,290,= 58,63,Problem問題,Opening invento
39、ry開始庫存 = 400 units Production 生產量 = 1,300 units Demand 需求量 = 1,100 unitsEnding inventory = opening inventory + production demand 最終庫存開始庫存生產量需求What will the ending inventory be?最終庫存將會是多少？,64,Problem (solution) 問題(答案),Opening inventory開始庫存 = 400 units Production 生產量 = 1,300 units Demand 需求量 = 1,100 un
40、itsEnding inventory = opening inventory + production demand 最終庫存開始庫存生產量需求量400 + 1,300 1,100 = 600 units,65,Problem問題,Opening inventory 開始倉存= 250 units,A production line is to run at 500 units per month. Opening inventory Is 250 units, and sales are forecast as shown. Calculate the expected Planned i
41、nventory for each month.一條生產線每月可以生產500個單位產品，初始 庫存量是250,預測銷售在表格中己顯示出,請計算每一個月的計劃庫存數,66,Problem (solution) 問題(答案),Opening inventory 開始倉存 = 250 units,67,Problem問題,A company wants to develop a level production plan for a family of Products. The opening inventory is 200 units, and an increase to 260 Units
42、 is expected by the end of the plan. The demand for each period Is given below. How much should the company produce each period, And what will be the ending inventory in each period?一間公司要對產品系列設立平均生產計劃,初始庫存是200,計劃結束時會增加到260,每一個時段的需求己經列明,那麼每個週期應生產多少?每個週期的最終庫存又是多少? Total planned production 總計劃生產數 Perio
43、d production 週期生產數,68,Problem (solution) 問題(答案),Total planned production 總計劃生產量 = 1,440 + 260 200 = 1,500 units Period production 平均週期生產量= 1,500 / 6 = 250 units,69,Chase Strategy追趕策略,Produce exactly what is needed each period 每週期只生產所需要的數量Example:舉例,Cost of plan: $20 per unit to change production lev
44、e l計劃費用：改變生產水平每單元需20元 Changing production level改變生產水平 =50 x $20 = $1,000 Inventory carrying cost庫存運作成本 = 0 Total cost of the plan總計劃成本 = $1,000,70,Subcontracting外發,Advantages:優點 No excess capacity沒有多餘產能 Level production 平均分佈生產Disadvantage:缺點 Costs of subcontracting 外發成本,Meet demand by subcontracting
45、 以外發生產方式以達到客戶需求,71,Resouce Requirements Planning資源需求計劃,Production plan must be compared with existing resources生產計劃一定要和現有的資源比較Are required resources available? 所需的資源是否足夠?If not, how will differences be reconciled?如果不足,如何解決這問題?,72,Bill of Resources資源清單,Shows the quantity of critical resources needed
46、to make one “average” unit of the product group 列出主要資源數量去計算產品類型的平均單位,73,The ERP System企業資源計劃,Materials management物料管理 Forecasting定單預測 Master Planning總排期 MRP物料需求計畫 Capacity Management產能管理 Inventory Management庫存管理 Quality Management & Purchasing 品質管理和採購 JIT Manufacturing即時生產製造 Quality品質,74,Master Prod
47、uction Schedule 總生產排期,States requirements for individual end items by date and quantity 說明獨立最後項目的需求日期及數量 Constrained by and supports the production plan受生產計劃限制但亦支持生產計劃 “Disaggregates” the production plan ”分解”生產計劃,75,Objectives of Master Scheduling總排期目標,Maintain desired level of customer service維持客戶要求的服務水平 Make best use of resources資源最好的利用 Keep inventories at desired level 將庫存保持在需要的水平,76,Inputs to Master Scheduling Process總排期程序的輸入,Production plan生產計劃 Forecast預測 Orders from customers客戶定單 Additional independent demand額外的獨立需求 Inventory levels庫存水平 Capacity constraints產能限制,
